Just hoping it wasn't all to do with ABN AMRO presentation earlier in the week. But some other announcement or brokers tip.
Gidday Legs...
Apparently BPT is named as the The Smart Investor - June 07
VIP stock for year 2008.
Yet to check it out myself....but bodes well for this week....& beyond.
Kauri, shouldn't your support run up underneath the channel as the base? I would have put it more along the lines of below. Or this because of the W4 area you're talking about. $1.40 looks to be pretty important in this view. $1.35 is support by my reckoning, and might be past a breakdown. Stochs look ugly at the moment. Not much difference here, just curious as to why you've put support exactly where you have? cheers.
LOL, sorry for my confusion. Seems obvious what the lines are now. $1.40 looks pretty important here doesn't it. Breaking $1.35 will confirm it out of the current trend although might be too much leeway. So, I agree that your stop there is prudent, just on S&R.Kennas, Sorry for the confusion, not having a good week... My stop is not at a logical support level, rather based on E/W.. i.e W4 can't (on equities at least) overlap W1.. if it does the pattern I am trying to trade is invalid, hence a close below the red stop line will see me depart... Cheers, Kauri
My stops is 1.40, but i'll use the close in case it does get bought off the lows today...this has been a frustrating share for me, i think i've been in and out of BPT a half dozen times now over the last couple of years, stopped out every time....
Cheers,
I feel your frustration. This stock is fundamentally stronger than most of the oilers. The earnings are real, they are transparent and the Dehli acquisition seems to be paying off for beach. I just don't see why others can't see the value.
Well it closed the day .5 above my stop so its safe for now...its on the trendline now, a bounce and we're back on our way, if it goes through then its 'another one bites the dust'!
I've got stopped out 9 times in the last two weeks! Thankfully my winners are still holding up...its been a full time job just managing stops.
What do you see as fair value for BPT?
Cheers,
On forecast earnings for end of financial year at 11 cents which on interim data would suggest that this target might be met we can roughly value Beach by multiplying average historic PE by earnings. This gives us a rough current value for the company. PE average for past 7 years has been 13 therefore 13 * 0.11 = $1.43. So at this point in time providing beach meet production output, which seems likely the company should be valued where it currently is. However value should also reflect future earnings and based on a forecast of 20 cents in FY08 it would be tempting to think that Beach should be valued a little higher .2 * 13 at around $2.60 however to think that Beach will be exactly equal to $2.60 in 2008 would be foolhardy but not impossible. Using this valuation technique does not account for the total cash flows over a period of time but rather a snapshot. With barel prices locked in at $65 for the next 4 years and with the option to take up higher oil prices we can be assured that oil price won't change the value as much as the production outputs and reserves of the company which Beach has plenty of both. Beach has 10 year of oil in reserve, plenty of LNG which seems to becoming vogue and geothermal energy to hedge against any negative sentiment toward oil. I think a fair valuation would be around $1.50 for now but if production forecasts are in line or greater, this stock should be worth $3 in the next year or two. I am prepared to hold.
Dislaimer: this is only my opinion and not financial advice DYOR.
Thanks heaps mate, good to hear the fundy side once in while...1 broker rates it a mod buy and 2 a strong buy too.
Cheers,
Building up a little steam here I think. Gotta give one way or the other and you'd think up, with the momentum in this, and the sector. Could this be a handle on a cup? Target $2.10?BPT may be getting ready to move on into W5.. not really a pyramid opportunity for me, but if it goes the way I think it will I'll be looking to add at the start of the next intermediate wave... maybe..
Building up a little steam here I think. Gotta give one way or the other and you'd think up, with the momentum in this, and the sector. Could this be a handle on a cup? Target $2.10?Cup might be a bit V shaped I suppose. Handle not long enough. :dunno:
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