BPT - Beach Energy

[legs]

Gidday Legs...
Apparently BPT is named as the The Smart Investor - June 07
VIP stock for year 2008.
Yet to check it out myself....but bodes well for this week....& beyond.

Just hoping it wasn't all to do with ABN AMRO presentation earlier in the week. But some other announcement or brokers tip.

 

[Jay-684]

Its also recommended as a BUY on Australian Stock Report as of last week too, around the $1.48 mark from memory...

 

[Kauri]

I will be watching..(I hope.. ) over the next few days to see if the tentative trading chanell along with the typical W4 area give support, could even turn into another pyramid opportunity if my stop is not claimed..

 

[Kauri]

Kauri, shouldn't your support run up underneath the channel as the base? I would have put it more along the lines of below. Or this because of the W4 area you're talking about. $1.40 looks to be pretty important in this view. $1.35 is support by my reckoning, and might be past a breakdown. Stochs look ugly at the moment. Not much difference here, just curious as to why you've put support exactly where you have? cheers.

Kennas,
Sorry for the confusion, not having a good week...
My stop is not at a logical support level, rather based on E/W.. i.e W4 can't (on equities at least) overlap W1.. if it does the pattern I am trying to trade is invalid, hence a close below the red stop line will see me depart...
Cheers
Kauri

I knew I was having a bad week...but now I am replying to non-existant posts!!

 

[Sean K]

Kennas, Sorry for the confusion, not having a good week... My stop is not at a logical support level, rather based on E/W.. i.e W4 can't (on equities at least) overlap W1.. if it does the pattern I am trying to trade is invalid, hence a close below the red stop line will see me depart... Cheers, Kauri

LOL, sorry for my confusion. Seems obvious what the lines are now. $1.40 looks pretty important here doesn't it. Breaking $1.35 will confirm it out of the current trend although might be too much leeway. So, I agree that your stop there is prudent, just on S&R.

 

[CanOz]

My stops is 1.40, but i'll use the close in case it does get bought off the lows today...this has been a frustrating share for me, i think i've been in and out of BPT a half dozen times now over the last couple of years, stopped out every time....

Cheers,

 

[TheRage]

My stops is 1.40, but i'll use the close in case it does get bought off the lows today...this has been a frustrating share for me, i think i've been in and out of BPT a half dozen times now over the last couple of years, stopped out every time....

Cheers,

I feel your frustration. This stock is fundamentally stronger than most of the oilers. The earnings are real, they are transparent and the Dehli acquisition seems to be paying off for beach. I just don't see why others can't see the value.

 

[CanOz]

I feel your frustration. This stock is fundamentally stronger than most of the oilers. The earnings are real, they are transparent and the Dehli acquisition seems to be paying off for beach. I just don't see why others can't see the value.

Well it closed the day .5 above my stop so its safe for now...its on the trendline now, a bounce and we're back on our way, if it goes through then its 'another one bites the dust'!

I've got stopped out 9 times in the last two weeks! Thankfully my winners are still holding up...its been a full time job just managing stops.

What do you see as fair value for BPT?

Cheers,

 

[mime]

Have faith CanOz. I think long team this stock is a winner. I bought ages ago at $.45 or so and hoping it becomes the next oil search and then Woodside. I can dream huh?

 

[TheRage]

Well it closed the day .5 above my stop so its safe for now...its on the trendline now, a bounce and we're back on our way, if it goes through then its 'another one bites the dust'!

I've got stopped out 9 times in the last two weeks! Thankfully my winners are still holding up...its been a full time job just managing stops.

What do you see as fair value for BPT?

Cheers,

On forecast earnings for end of financial year at 11 cents which on interim data would suggest that this target might be met we can roughly value Beach by multiplying average historic PE by earnings. This gives us a rough current value for the company. PE average for past 7 years has been 13 therefore 13 * 0.11 = $1.43. So at this point in time providing beach meet production output, which seems likely the company should be valued where it currently is. However value should also reflect future earnings and based on a forecast of 20 cents in FY08 it would be tempting to think that Beach should be valued a little higher .2 * 13 at around $2.60 however to think that Beach will be exactly equal to $2.60 in 2008 would be foolhardy but not impossible. Using this valuation technique does not account for the total cash flows over a period of time but rather a snapshot. With barel prices locked in at $65 for the next 4 years and with the option to take up higher oil prices we can be assured that oil price won't change the value as much as the production outputs and reserves of the company which Beach has plenty of both. Beach has 10 year of oil in reserve, plenty of LNG which seems to becoming vogue and geothermal energy to hedge against any negative sentiment toward oil. I think a fair valuation would be around $1.50 for now but if production forecasts are in line or greater, this stock should be worth $3 in the next year or two. I am prepared to hold.

Dislaimer: this is only my opinion and not financial advice DYOR.

 

[CanOz]

On forecast earnings for end of financial year at 11 cents which on interim data would suggest that this target might be met we can roughly value Beach by multiplying average historic PE by earnings. This gives us a rough current value for the company. PE average for past 7 years has been 13 therefore 13 * 0.11 = $1.43. So at this point in time providing beach meet production output, which seems likely the company should be valued where it currently is. However value should also reflect future earnings and based on a forecast of 20 cents in FY08 it would be tempting to think that Beach should be valued a little higher .2 * 13 at around $2.60 however to think that Beach will be exactly equal to $2.60 in 2008 would be foolhardy but not impossible. Using this valuation technique does not account for the total cash flows over a period of time but rather a snapshot. With barel prices locked in at $65 for the next 4 years and with the option to take up higher oil prices we can be assured that oil price won't change the value as much as the production outputs and reserves of the company which Beach has plenty of both. Beach has 10 year of oil in reserve, plenty of LNG which seems to becoming vogue and geothermal energy to hedge against any negative sentiment toward oil. I think a fair valuation would be around $1.50 for now but if production forecasts are in line or greater, this stock should be worth $3 in the next year or two. I am prepared to hold.

Dislaimer: this is only my opinion and not financial advice DYOR.

Thanks heaps mate, good to hear the fundy side once in while...1 broker rates it a mod buy and 2 a strong buy too.

Cheers,

 

[TheRage]

Thanks heaps mate, good to hear the fundy side once in while...1 broker rates it a mod buy and 2 a strong buy too.

Cheers,

No worries. I am a fundie at heart but I am starting to use charts more and more. I also agree with your stop loss level and am tempted to average down a little. I can't help but think this stock will bounce back especially after June 30 when last minute super contributions will be pumped back into the market.

 

[TheRage]

Beach firmed up to $1.47 on 6.5 million volume. Let's hope the trend resumes but without some good news I am not sure that it will continue easily.

 

[clowboy]

Would I be right in saying that BPT is forming an acending triangle? And if it plays out and breaks above ~$1.50 that would be bullish and warrant a trade ?

Hopefully the chart attaches right

 

[Kauri]

BPT may be getting ready to move on into W5.. not really a pyramid opportunity for me, but if it goes the way I think it will I'll be looking to add at the start of the next intermediate wave... maybe..

 

[Sean K]

BPT may be getting ready to move on into W5.. not really a pyramid opportunity for me, but if it goes the way I think it will I'll be looking to add at the start of the next intermediate wave... maybe..

Building up a little steam here I think. Gotta give one way or the other and you'd think up, with the momentum in this, and the sector. Could this be a handle on a cup? Target $2.10? Cup might be a bit V shaped I suppose. Handle not long enough. :dunno:

 

[Kauri]

Building up a little steam here I think. Gotta give one way or the other and you'd think up, with the momentum in this, and the sector. Could this be a handle on a cup? Target $2.10? Cup might be a bit V shaped I suppose. Handle not long enough. :dunno:

Hi Kennas,
Might be a bigger cup in play too?? Never sure untill they have completed of course..
Cheers
Kauri

 

[Kauri]

The last of my posted currently open CFD DMA trading portfolio shares...will leave the stop as is and possibly put on a MA stop if it moves on up...
Cheers
Kauri

 

[zuluwarrior08]

Still trading in that ascending triangle, closed just above dynamic support on FRI at 1.445/1.50. Im waiting on this one to explode, but who knows if it will go up or down? how much longer will it trade in this range.

Fundamentals look good still, I wonder who will last out, buyers or sellers?

Will be good to watch this week

 

[Kauri]

Beach looks like it may be going to make a bit of a run, good volume early on too..
...Cheers
.......Kauri