I've been a long-time supporter of BOL and have held on from over $4 in beleif that the company was well run, had a solid BS and the long-term fundamentals were in place. Despite the weather-related downgrades and "one offs" I have remained positive. However I am reconsidering my position:
1) if BOL has a truly integrated, flexible 'national' network and accompanying IT as we are told, then unforeseen fluctuations in demand in certain areas (eg. Hunter Valley floods, WA cyclones) should be handled without significant margin destruction.
2) if a range of exogenous factors (such as equipment shortages/port delays etc) has restricted supply, then why hasn't BOL benefited from the economics of scarcity: pricing power. Other companies in similar industries are facing supply constaints and shortages but have profited through higher prices and margins - in fact, this is the underlying economics behind the present mining boom!
3) if cranes are hard to source and there are 12+ month delivery delays for a company like BOL (who has a small sales division) - why hasn't this stimulated demand for crane hiring services?
Since I have the economics correct - then I am left wondering why BOL hasn't flourished in the current environment? Are there other long-term bulls for Boom Log. or have they already bailed out?