BOL - Boom Logistics

[prawn_86]

ok i follow Boom of and on, but i dont hold, so im just thinking out loud here.

there are 171million shares on issue. So a profit of 36mill gives an EPS of 21c.

tthe usual (??) figure that i've heard as an easy estimate is 10x EPS which would price BOL at $2.10. Although the brokers seem to palce a significantly higher value on it. Perhaps they are factoring in future growth.

As to debt, i have very little ideahow that affects projected earnings etc, except for how the market gets jittery in situations like this for highly geared co's.

please correct me if im wrong as im here to learn

 

[Captain_Chaza]

ok i follow Boom of and on, but i dont hold, so im just thinking out loud here.

there are 171million shares on issue. So a profit of 36mill gives an EPS of 21c.

tthe usual (??) figure that i've heard as an easy estimate is 10x EPS which would price BOL at $2.10. Although the brokers seem to palce a significantly higher value on it. Perhaps they are factoring in future growth.

As to debt, i have very little ideahow that affects projected earnings etc, except for how the market gets jittery in situations like this for highly geared co's.

please correct me if im wrong as im here to learn

Crickey!
I can't understand how the Packers got caught out in "ONE" Tel

Surely they had the best of information on their side?

Sometimes it seems The Bad just get Badder

Salute and Gods' speed

 

[Jimminy]

yep, sometimes they do get badder.

Like I said father time will be the judge. I still like the fundamentals of this business and the technicals were there to enter yesterday at 2.62 in a rising market. Just my

 

[Ken]

Closed on a low of $2.60.

Not good. Will test $2.50 on monday. A break down of $2.50 and where to?

From all reports Monday could be a nasty day.

watch the US tonight.

BOL still in an unloved sector but this will probably bring more good than bad this overall sell off.

For BOL it will have them re-rated by brokers.

 

[Jimminy]

Lowest it has gone so far is $2.58 if I am not mistaken.

Good support thus far in the $2.60 - 2.70 range.

I sold at 2.84 the day it went up to $3.07 and jumped back on at $2.66. Average buy price now $2.44.

I hope you are wrong about the 2.50 Ken.

 

[dj_420]

From the BOL charts we can see that sp has been in a downtrend since feb 07. Although it has not crossed the downtrend line, IMO it may have formed a bottom. Support has been found at the 2.60 ish mark and recently trended sideways in a box formation until now it has formed a triangle.

The MACD crossed mid August and the 21 day SMA crossed mid September. From here I would like to see BOL break up above $3 and cross the downtrend line which is around $3.15. From there next levels of resistance would be $3.50 and $3.75.

This stock has been sold off for quite a while now and has not shown any sort of recovery from the recent correction. It is trading on a PE of 12 since sell off.

Short term downside risk is at 2.60 from recent short term support.

 

[dj_420]

BOL moving up now, almost touching $3, will find some resistance at $3 then can move up and breach the downtrend line. on fairly high volume also today. Once it breaks $3 very little overhead resistance judging from market depth.

this one has looked oversold and has not show any sort of recovery until the last 2-3 days.

 

[dj_420]

Great day for BOL. Up 5.6% on above avg volume. From the short term chart we can see a number of things. The downtrend line needs to be broken, from this chart the downtrend will be crossed at 3.10.

Recently we have seen BOL trend sideways with a false breakout, to fall back inside the sideways trend. Towards the end of this trend we saw a descending pennant to small breakout. Most recently there has been a triangle formation to breakout.

Typically these triangle formations will break either up or down. Here we saw a tightening of trend and then a break up. Today BOL broke through the $3 mark quite easily on good volume. Usually these round dollar figures will represent phsycological resistance more than anything.

From here it is important that BOL gets above that downtrend line, a break above 3.10 would confirm this and resume a short term uptrend.

 

[Jimminy]

Closed on a low of $2.60.

Not good. Will test $2.50 on monday. A break down of $2.50 and where to?

For BOL it will have them re-rated by brokers.

Looks like you missed the bottom Ken. $2.58 t'was.

Time for you to get back on board Ken. Better late than never. Confident this will head back up to $4 over the next six months.

 

[Joe Blow]

Confident this will head back up to $4 over the next six months.

Some further elaboration is required here Jimminy. Can you please provide us with some more detail about why you are confident that BOL will head back up to $4 over the next 6 months? Thanks!

 

[Jimminy]

Some further elaboration is required here Jimminy. Can you please provide us with some more detail about why you are confident that BOL will head back up to $4 over the next 6 months? Thanks!

Joe Blow,

Boom Logistics said its full year result for the last financial year had been impacted by heavy rain, high winds and flooding along the east coast of Australia.

Boom still posted a 36.6 m full year net operating profit after tax.

The weather caused issue mainly due to the number of open pit operations they service. The maintenance still has to be done though.

They have also made several recent acquisitions which will be reflected in earnings in the future.

I remain VERY confident about the outlook for the business and strength of the underlying industries the company relies upon for revenue. So to answer your question - the profit of 36.6 in bad year, further acquisitions, and a bustling mining industry and metal prices all point to positive gains inthe next six months for BOL. My prediction is $4.00 - probably the optimistic prediciton I will admit.

Barring further bad weather of course

 

[dj_420]

I would like to see BOL get above 3.10 and close above there, I see that as been the downtrend line, still increasing slowly. There is definite increased interest in this stock.

 

[dj_420]

BOL has moved up through the 3.10 mark where IMO was a signal of downtrend reversal. BOL has found bottom around 2.60 and has moved up from there.

From here next levels of resistance will be the 3.30 - 3.50 mark where is has shown support and trended within the channel before.

Today I would like to see BOL close above the 3.10 mark, and begin to build a new base of support.

 

[Ken]

BOOM,

Brokers love it.

But I did hear that the worst cyclone season was going to be had in Australia.

Boom wIILL smashed now that people raise cyclone, or poor weather warnings up north.


Although in the scheme of things.

BOL is to me in the right sector, at the right time, and at the right price.

I am as confident about BOL being a good long term stock, as I was about BHP at the end of 2006, when BHP was $24 testing all time lows, when copper prices were tanking.

Time will tell as it always does.

 

[prawn_86]

I too like BOL, and have traded it successfully a couple times in the past.

I think it has good long term potential, but as you (and the market) says weather is an important factor for them.

I would put their true value closer to the $3 mark at a very conservative estimate. A lot of brokers have much higher value placed on them.

 

[Ken]

$2.60 close seems to be a heap of support around here at those levels.

But time will tell.

I notice westpac float on and off as substancial holder must flicker on and off 5% holdings.

Telstra super fund is overweight in Boom Logistics.

It seems like a stock that potentially at the right time could reap significant % gains in quick time.

It trades like a mining stock in the fact the percentage moves can be big.


If anyone has a crystal ball, I would love to see this stock in 5 years time.

Whether or not this MINING BOOM stronger for longer actually is there and we see BOL reap its benefits by expanding globally.

 

[tronic72]

$2.60 close seems to be a heap of support around here at those levels.

But time will tell.

I notice westpac float on and off as substancial holder must flicker on and off 5% holdings.

Telstra super fund is overweight in Boom Logistics.

It seems like a stock that potentially at the right time could reap significant % gains in quick time.

It trades like a mining stock in the fact the percentage moves can be big.


If anyone has a crystal ball, I would love to see this stock in 5 years time.

Whether or not this MINING BOOM stronger for longer actually is there and we see BOL reap its benefits by expanding globally.

Just purchased at 2.38. I think that's a very good price for this stock. has taken a while for the Boom to make progress after all their acquisitions. That said, I think the time for a serious turn around is very close.

 

[tronic72]

Wow! Anyone know what's going on with BOOM?

Over 10% drop today!

The announcement they submitted to the ASX seems to have had the opposite effect it was meant to.

 

[3MT]

Looks like the market is taking the ASX response as an indirect confirmation of an imminent profit downgrade as BOL is not debating the issue (with a re-affirmation of profit guidance).

Just because a stock keeps falling doesn't mean it becomes good value and will bounce back, although BOL looks to be a solid company.

Though its fundamentals (good industry, good margin) are not too bad, I am concerned about its debt/equity ratio and how that would effect its ability to continually "weather" bad storms in a high interest environment.

 

[brendan87]

I've been a long-time supporter of BOL and have held on from over $4 in beleif that the company was well run, had a solid BS and the long-term fundamentals were in place. Despite the weather-related downgrades and "one offs" I have remained positive. However I am reconsidering my position:
1) if BOL has a truly integrated, flexible 'national' network and accompanying IT as we are told, then unforeseen fluctuations in demand in certain areas (eg. Hunter Valley floods, WA cyclones) should be handled without significant margin destruction.
2) if a range of exogenous factors (such as equipment shortages/port delays etc) has restricted supply, then why hasn't BOL benefited from the economics of scarcity: pricing power. Other companies in similar industries are facing supply constaints and shortages but have profited through higher prices and margins - in fact, this is the underlying economics behind the present mining boom!
3) if cranes are hard to source and there are 12+ month delivery delays for a company like BOL (who has a small sales division) - why hasn't this stimulated demand for crane hiring services?

Since I have the economics correct - then I am left wondering why BOL hasn't flourished in the current environment? Are there other long-term bulls for Boom Log. or have they already bailed out?