BOL - Boom Logistics

[Jimminy]

Faircall,

Is it fair to say short term we are looking at opportunity to get set on a growth stock offering yield?

Or are there people thinking BOL has peaked and its going to topple over...

You are still here talking to yourself Ken, about BOL (JOKE) LOL...

Mate, it is this simple. You will not receive much, if any, capital growth on this stock for the next six months at least. If you are happy with this then so be it.

But for me I would not buy into a stock that has this short term prospect. Nor do many other investors hence the sell off of recent times.

You could probably buy at these prices in another six months. I will check back in another 6 months to see how you're doing. I only keep a fleeting interest in BOL because a close friend once dated the daugher of Holts cranes ex-owners in Toowoomba who sold out to BOOM. Plus the old man has a few BOOM that he bought when they listed.

 

[Ken]

Yeah they are a pretty boring stock when you think about it.

Its not like a miner where there are resource upgrades which gets investors excited.

Not much hype will come from BOL I wouldnt think, it is what it is, and reporting season is very important.

I have bought some BOL at current prices with the view of holding them as part of my blue chip long term 5 year + group, whilst re-investing the dividend.

In 5 years if BOL is $6 I will be a happy camper.

 

[Ken]

How significant is this acquisition?

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Ahoy Officer Kenny

She looks like a very dangerous and Un-Seaworthy tack to me

Refer to past experinces/charts like SGW HIH ONE

How often do the Bad Bluechips just get Badder?

Salute and Take Care

 

[Ken]

Time will tell.

If only I had 2008 January edition of BRW.

 

[rederob]

Ahoy Officer Kenny

She looks like a very dangerous and Un-Seaworthy tack to me

Refer to past experinces/charts like SGW HIH ONE

How often do the Bad Bluechips just get Badder?

Salute and Take Care

Charlie
BOL is actually making profits, and paying dividends from them, as it has for a few years.
SGW couldn't make a profit from tantalum and gold, despite having world class resources at its disposal.
HIH was an accountant's nightmare, and the Dodgy Bros are now serving custodial sentences as a result.
There is a marked difference between a stock that got ahead of itself and is correcting - as BOL has - and a stock that was bad and getting worse.
I think anything under $3.50 is worth a punt on BOL, but I personally would not enter unless it drifted below $3.00.
BOL has a debt issue to overcome, but compensates with long term maintenance contracts that give it cash flow stability.
Given BOL is not a "blue chip", I won't comment on the one's that get badder. Although the ones that recover, such as AMP, can more than double one's entry price in a matter of years.
Maybe there's a lesson there after all?

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Ahoy Red Robert

Far be it for me to cross swords with a fundamelist with a ready reconner and with all the latest information on BOL on hand as you have

What about the Comparison with PAS?

Could they repeat history and do a Julius Caesar and "Burn the Boats" after crossing the Rubicon?
Could they do a "burn the bridges tack " and do a PAS?
ie: Start again under your fundamental rules of "Good Corporate Goverance?"

It is always a worry to this Captain to see a share like BOL (One that pays Dividends to suckers) go South so dramatically in the middle on a Bull market when the majority are finding fair seas and weather conditions

Gold Silver and more Gold for instance


Salute and Take Care

 

[rederob]

Charlie
It's a matter of what's improbable, not impossible.
Bad management can turn the improbable to the possible, tho generally slowly enough for the alert investor to notice.
Presently BOL does not stack up well if it were to wear a $4+ share price tag, and from a dividend perspective is marginal at present prices.
BOL's growth potential is there, but at the moment needs to convince the market it can generate revenues that make it a better than average proposition.
I agree that gold and silver prospects are better alternatives, but the risk reward factor isn't everyone's cup of tea.

 

[Ken]

Rederob

BOL definitley down in the dumps, the volumes seem to be higher than normal.

Alot of selling going on.

Plenty of other stocks kicking goals.

A few announcements with new contracts would be handy.

Can't see it getting over $3.50 within the next 3 months.

 

[brendan87]

Hi all. I've been a holder of BOL for a while now and have cautiously accumulated in light of the downgrade - I thought the response was overdone but I think we could still see $3. In my opinion (for what it's worth) I think BOL could become a take-over target. I wonder what everyone else thinks ? I don't see an offer as probably but certainly possible in the current M&A enviornment. My reasons for holding this belief are:
- amazingly strong balance sheet. Proven ability to grow revenues faster than operating expenses, successfully turning share capital and borrowings into meaningful bottom line growth. Gearing ratios have come down alot since 05.
- improving margins. I think a LBO would see much more potential in improving margins/efficiency
- some leverage to a housing recovery 08 (market seems to react alot to residential data... even though less than 13% of revenue is from that market)
- i think that some view the company as more an 'infrastructure' company in terms of the type of assets, leasing agreements, long-term contracts for maintenance: similar to TSE?? So a LBO could use BOL's assets to fund the acquisition (in a similar way to Qantas and the airplanes being used as collateral to fund the acquisiton).
- former market darling now considerably cheaper than 12-18 mnths ago and now trading on a lower PE than the sector average. I think it's underpriced for a 'growth' company..which I still think it is. The technical analysis looks like HDR did before it received a surprise offer: although sentiment was alot worse surrounding HDR back then - maybe BOL under $3 with insto selling would be a takeover more attractive to longer term investors/instos.
- good operating cash flows (5 times interest cover) is a plus
- exposure to mining boom and higher business investment in the mining sector but BOL has underlying 'steady' cash flows from ongoing maintenance
- could benefit from hype around any infrastructure spending announced in the election year budget - favourable outlook for infrastructure maintenance and new projects (BOL has leverage to QLD and WA, where alot of fed funding will be directed)

Flipside: However any offer would have to be quite high (and a long stretch for any suitor)- I think there is a lesson to be learnt from Qantas re: fundies. BOL's has a high insto ownership and forms the cornerstone of many 'emerging company' funds for Aus and intl. fund managers: many of whom were buying over $4 in 06 and recently over $4 the days preceding the profit announcement earlier this year. Any thoughts?

 

[Ken]

Well looks like I got owned...

I was the cooler on BOL.

 

[Kat82]

I read in a broker's report that the CEO succession was logical "given the mutual history of the CEO and CFO since pre-IPO". Can anyone explain what it means?

 

[Ken]

No idea.

But I am of the opinion that BOL has been to quiet for too long.

In a mining BOOM so to speak. It will have its turn again.

When you think they are dead and buried the bulls just keep on keeping on...

Look at OXR and BHP, they have surged rapidly. Long term holders will win on this one in my opinion.

Take the divs and tuck them away.

Out of BOL at the minute but will be back in shortly.

 

[Ken]

Well today was a glum day for holders. Very disappointing performances, and must have you wonder about other companies. BOL can't be the only other company being effected by bad weather... yet they seem to be the only one reporting it.

I sold out and never re-entered. I guess lucky in a way. Cause I would be well down...

I like BOL, but I just think the stock is very unloved.

I will wait for a re-entry point. I dont ride downward trends. Lesson learnt from the first time I purchased BOL.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

..... and must have you wonder about other companies. BOL can't be the only other company being effected by bad weather... yet they seem to be the only one reporting it.

Ken...I think your bloody right in what you say ..... reality might be that it's a stock that fits firm with infrastructure stocks, it's also has a position in the resources sector. When there is too much sun the farmer complains, too much rain he complains again.... You can't point that jib into the clouds when it rains in the city Ken. But when it comes to resources in the outback I bet even the resources stocks have to say the pits are pumped daily, but the mud is still here! Apart from that Boom Logistics is a share on my wifes' portfolio at the moment, Huntley's also have their hands on the pump with this stock ....lets see Ken ......I feel comfortable with the disclosures, better been told then not told.

 

[michael_selway]

Well today was a glum day for holders. Very disappointing performances, and must have you wonder about other companies. BOL can't be the only other company being effected by bad weather... yet they seem to be the only one reporting it.

I sold out and never re-entered. I guess lucky in a way. Cause I would be well down...

I like BOL, but I just think the stock is very unloved.

I will wait for a re-entry point. I dont ride downward trends. Lesson learnt from the first time I purchased BOL.

What about BLY, are they affected also?

thx

MS

Boart Longyear (BLY) is an integrated drilling services provider and products manufacturer for the Mineral Industry, with a presence in the Environmental & Infrastructure and Energy Industries.

 

[Jimminy]

You are still here talking to yourself Ken, about BOL (JOKE) LOL...

Mate, it is this simple. You will not receive much, if any, capital growth on this stock for the next six months at least. If you are happy with this then so be it.

But for me I would not buy into a stock that has this short term prospect. Nor do many other investors hence the sell off of recent times.

You could probably buy at these prices in another six months. I will check back in another 6 months to see how you're doing.

Posted this back on 9th April 2007.....

Just bought in at $2.62. That will do me - may drop further but am now happy to stick these in the bottom drawer at these prices.

Appears oversold to me.

Anyone else agree.

 

[Ken]

I sold out...

I can't be sure the brakes have been put on this one...

I will be back in if some side ways action occurs...

I know the fundamentals say buy...

I think we are approaching support at $2.50

Can we be sure...

 

[Jimminy]

father time will be the judge Ken....

However BOL has been punished enough for now. The profit downgrade due to inclement weather on top of the market correction in the past week or 2 signals to me an entry point.

However there are plenty of people willing to sell as will always be the case with most stocks....but I get the impression that most people are sitting looking at BOL at $2.60 and beginning to think - that is cheap for a stock still churning out a $36m profit....

Well I did anyway.

 

[Ken]

This is something I need to learn.

How do I evaluate a stock like BOL?

I heard they have a heap of debt, which may be a reason they were sold down in anticipation of the rate rise also??

Besides that what does $36 million dollars profit mean in terms of dividends, and earnings per share?

At $2.60 I am thinking... mining boom stronger for longer theory, oversold also.

But who am I to disagree with my pidly entry of 2000 shares compared to the millions that have been selling it.

I am looking twice at BOL because compared to other stocks which fall sharply BOL is actually making a profit and not full of would be's and could be's.

I am reading a book at the moment, trading the trend.

They say there is at anypoint in time a 95% chance of the trend staying the same, and a 5% chance of a reversal. Who am I to beat those odds.

I guess it depends on the trading strategy.... at $3.60 there were price targets of $4.80.

I am waiting for a signal that the downwards action has stopped.