flooding in Mackay, Qld overnight will dent further the profit for next 6 months....possibly behind today's selling.
BOL - Boom Logistics
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flooding in Mackay, Qld overnight will dent further the profit for next 6 months....possibly behind today's selling.
Sean K
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Hooly dooly, this stock has been smashed. 
I remember reading an article some time ago in an investment mag saying how great they were, tied to the infrastructure boom and all....
Cripes, what's really wrong???
Any idea who might buy them out, or are they going to administration??
I remember reading an article some time ago in an investment mag saying how great they were, tied to the infrastructure boom and all....
Cripes, what's really wrong???
Any idea who might buy them out, or are they going to administration??
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Anybody relate global warming and a change in weather patterns, to all the problems BOL is experiencing? (makes sense, floods, hurricanes etc).
I remember one analyst I used to work with, saying steer clear of companies like this, or insurance businesses, as they are going to cop a LOT due to these weather patterns starting to become mixed up.
Didnt take an overly large amount of notice, but perhaps he is onto something..........
Any scientists here...............
I remember one analyst I used to work with, saying steer clear of companies like this, or insurance businesses, as they are going to cop a LOT due to these weather patterns starting to become mixed up.
Didnt take an overly large amount of notice, but perhaps he is onto something..........
Any scientists here...............
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I think global warming is the last of Bol's problems....they just have a very capital intensive business and thus extremely susceptible to cycle..add to that sub par management...besides jury is still out on climate change..hehe
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Going for a run today up 30%
Recent Announcements :
- Director buying on mkt 50K worth
- WBC becoming substantial holder
Has been recently valued around the $2.50 mark
Im keeping an eye on this one
Recent Announcements :
- Director buying on mkt 50K worth
- WBC becoming substantial holder
Has been recently valued around the $2.50 mark
Im keeping an eye on this one
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Yeh, I was watching this run up today!
Just insane some of this activity lately!
What else can you say? Director buying and change in substantial holding should not push a share price up like this!
Just insane some of this activity lately!
What else can you say? Director buying and change in substantial holding should not push a share price up like this!
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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One could argue that it has been rather oversold.
Although i havnt done an analysis of these guys for a while...
Although i havnt done an analysis of these guys for a while...
It has been suggested to me that BOL is a takeover play on the horizon and I have put my toe in the water to buy some shares at an average entry price of $0.98. Still going down. I hope my advisor is on the ball.
Fundamentals look OK but time will tell given the company is carrying reasonable debt levels.
Fundamentals look OK but time will tell given the company is carrying reasonable debt levels.
Has BOL found a bottom in the 70c-80c range? It's been trading there for a little while (as well as earlier this year) - seems to be some support in the area?
Recent profit downgrade hasn't helped, and while they do have some debt it doesn't seem to be too big - but is it the reason for the SP falling?
Seems a reasonable dividend too (but I'v learnt not to 'count on' those things after BBP and CNP!).
McAleese transport also recently popped up on the substantial shareholders list http://www.mcaleese.com.au/ who are a regional transport company in the Central Qld area, plus WBC / BT Invest seemed happy to top up recently.
Hogan and partners also have it rated as a spec buy.
It all sounds positive, except for the now-poison chalis of debt ....
Recent profit downgrade hasn't helped, and while they do have some debt it doesn't seem to be too big - but is it the reason for the SP falling?
Seems a reasonable dividend too (but I'v learnt not to 'count on' those things after BBP and CNP!).
McAleese transport also recently popped up on the substantial shareholders list http://www.mcaleese.com.au/ who are a regional transport company in the Central Qld area, plus WBC / BT Invest seemed happy to top up recently.
Hogan and partners also have it rated as a spec buy.
It all sounds positive, except for the now-poison chalis of debt ....
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Could well have found a bottom there.
As you say, traded there earlier in the year before retracing and looks like accumulation came in at that point also.
Same as is happening here, volume increasing, definately some buying support out there.
Could be a double bottom reversal.
A lot comes down to the overall market and the annual report though. Until a big move south on the overall market or some very bad news, think this one should hold support above 70c. If it hit's that point and volume increases downwards, a short looks like the better option.
As you say, traded there earlier in the year before retracing and looks like accumulation came in at that point also.
Same as is happening here, volume increasing, definately some buying support out there.
Could be a double bottom reversal.
A lot comes down to the overall market and the annual report though. Until a big move south on the overall market or some very bad news, think this one should hold support above 70c. If it hit's that point and volume increases downwards, a short looks like the better option.
This one has sprung back into life over the last few weeks. Could call earlier from a previous post about it forming a base in the 70-80's.
It had a kick up of 20% with a very good follow up consolidation day finishing on it's highs. Westpac/BT have been accumulating heavily over the last month and now up to about 11% holding from memory. That is a sizeable stake for a small company.
Interesting to see what happens with this one over the next month or two.
It had a kick up of 20% with a very good follow up consolidation day finishing on it's highs. Westpac/BT have been accumulating heavily over the last month and now up to about 11% holding from memory. That is a sizeable stake for a small company.
Interesting to see what happens with this one over the next month or two.
I hold BOL, and I am way out of pocket because I initially bought them at about $2.50 on average. I bought BOL then (in the middle of 2007) because they supplied services to infrastructure builders and miners, and I thought that this was a good theme, and my son held them, and he had done well. I was new to the game, so I did not do the research that I now do. There is no better teacher than the loss of thousands of dollars. In about March 2008 I bought 11,100 of them at 88 cents
Anyhow, the reality now is the facts that now pertain to BOL, including its current share price (BOL closed at $1.195 today, Friday, 29.8/08).
Starting with the big-picture stuff, consider the following:
a) BOL supplies to major mining and infrastructure builders – that is good.
b) Cranes are in short supply, which obviates the need for BOL to cut prices, and it makes it difficult for users to buy cranes for quick delivery – these factors are good for BOL.
c) Money is tight, so crane users do not wish to invest in cranes when they can hire them – that is good for BOL
d) BOL expanded too quickly, and experienced difficulty digesting an acquisition – a valuable, if expensive, learning experience that should make BOL’s management smarter in future – firms that have been to the University of Hard Knocks often do well in later life.
e) BOL’s business generates a good cash flow, so banks are not averse to lending BOL money, and if BOL needs to borrow for equipment, the equipment purchased provides good collateral. If BOL cools its pace of expansion, it can reduce the need to borrow.
f) The MD bought 200,000 shares at $217,000 recently – that is a good sign.
Now let us look at the numbers.
The statutory profit was $18.6 million, but this included corrections from earlier periods and reducing intangibles in the balance sheet. The real operating profit was $22.2 million. This means we should normalize the EPS of 10.9 cents by that ratio to get 13 cents. The dividend per share was 5.5 (50% of the EPS), so we can alter this to 6.5 cents. I ignore the bad-weather excuses that BOL seems to trundle out with monotonous regularity – storms are normal
If we presume modest growth, then a Price-Earnings ratio of 10 is not out of court, and thus we get a share price of $1.30. This is simplistic, but it is a start. If you picked a PE ratio of 9, then you would get $1.17, so somewhere between $1.15 and $1.30 is probably as good a guesstimate as any. BOL closed at $1.195 today (Friday 29.8/08), so it seems fairly reasonably priced. Of couse, some good news could pop out of the woodwork (e.g., a synergistic merger that optimizes depot utilization), and give us an upside surprise.
Tutt Bryant (TBG) is to a degree in the same line of business as BOL, and buying TBG might be a better option. TBG’s EPS is 20.5 and its dividend per share is 8 cents. TBG has a better recent record than BOL, so its PE ratio could be a tad higher than BOLs. A target price between $2.00 and $2.20 would seem reasonable. It closed at $1.46 today. I do not hold TBG.
Pioupiou
Anyhow, the reality now is the facts that now pertain to BOL, including its current share price (BOL closed at $1.195 today, Friday, 29.8/08).
Starting with the big-picture stuff, consider the following:
a) BOL supplies to major mining and infrastructure builders – that is good.
b) Cranes are in short supply, which obviates the need for BOL to cut prices, and it makes it difficult for users to buy cranes for quick delivery – these factors are good for BOL.
c) Money is tight, so crane users do not wish to invest in cranes when they can hire them – that is good for BOL
d) BOL expanded too quickly, and experienced difficulty digesting an acquisition – a valuable, if expensive, learning experience that should make BOL’s management smarter in future – firms that have been to the University of Hard Knocks often do well in later life.
e) BOL’s business generates a good cash flow, so banks are not averse to lending BOL money, and if BOL needs to borrow for equipment, the equipment purchased provides good collateral. If BOL cools its pace of expansion, it can reduce the need to borrow.
f) The MD bought 200,000 shares at $217,000 recently – that is a good sign.
Now let us look at the numbers.
The statutory profit was $18.6 million, but this included corrections from earlier periods and reducing intangibles in the balance sheet. The real operating profit was $22.2 million. This means we should normalize the EPS of 10.9 cents by that ratio to get 13 cents. The dividend per share was 5.5 (50% of the EPS), so we can alter this to 6.5 cents. I ignore the bad-weather excuses that BOL seems to trundle out with monotonous regularity – storms are normal
If we presume modest growth, then a Price-Earnings ratio of 10 is not out of court, and thus we get a share price of $1.30. This is simplistic, but it is a start. If you picked a PE ratio of 9, then you would get $1.17, so somewhere between $1.15 and $1.30 is probably as good a guesstimate as any. BOL closed at $1.195 today (Friday 29.8/08), so it seems fairly reasonably priced. Of couse, some good news could pop out of the woodwork (e.g., a synergistic merger that optimizes depot utilization), and give us an upside surprise.
Tutt Bryant (TBG) is to a degree in the same line of business as BOL, and buying TBG might be a better option. TBG’s EPS is 20.5 and its dividend per share is 8 cents. TBG has a better recent record than BOL, so its PE ratio could be a tad higher than BOLs. A target price between $2.00 and $2.20 would seem reasonable. It closed at $1.46 today. I do not hold TBG.
Pioupiou
Well BOL owes us $3.14 / share, or perhaps it owes us nothing because I made the choice to buy at that price. I think there is a good fundamental story here. Our industries and projects need cranes which hopefully BOL can provide. and the new manager right the ship financially. I don't expect to see $3.14 again too quickly
. I think there is a good fundamental story here. Our industries and projects need cranes which hopefully BOL can provide. and the new manager right the ship financially. I don't expect to see $3.14 again too quicklyProvided the sector wherein a business makes its money is healthy, and the business model is sound, I like a share that has had a smack in the mouth for being too hubristic, but which remains otherwise financially hale, and where the managers are smart enough to realise the errors of the past and take corrective action. In my view BOL fits into this theme, so it might redeem itself. I have bought into a few shares on this smack-in-the-mouth basis, and it has always worked. DOW is one recent buy that springs to mind.
In these set-back situations, and particularly if a new CEO takes control, there is often a major clean-up, which can include writing down assets and intangibles and increasing provisions, and (perish the thought) pushing revenue into a later year and pulling expenses into the current year. In this way the firm has one diabolical year, which can often be blamed on a situation and/or a person that/who is now history. Thereafter the firm’s performance looks very good, the CEO gets a fine performance reward and the shareholders are happy. This is why I bought ANZ – Mike Smith, the new CEO, might want to shine in his second year at the helm, and reversing some over provisioning would help.
Although BOL is reasonably priced when its SP is about $1.20, or less, if its EPS, dividend payment and debt-related ratios improve at the same time that the All Ords index moves out of its current slough, then the SP will improve by having both the EPS and PER rising. I am probably a dreamer, but this is what I think will happen, and so I hold onto my BOL shares, which I watch like a hawk.
As an aside, one thing that seems odd about BOL is that directors have often bought shares, and the SP has continued to fall. Maybe they too have been the victims of the old mushroom treatment (keep them in the dark and feed them horse excretement).
In these set-back situations, and particularly if a new CEO takes control, there is often a major clean-up, which can include writing down assets and intangibles and increasing provisions, and (perish the thought) pushing revenue into a later year and pulling expenses into the current year. In this way the firm has one diabolical year, which can often be blamed on a situation and/or a person that/who is now history. Thereafter the firm’s performance looks very good, the CEO gets a fine performance reward and the shareholders are happy. This is why I bought ANZ – Mike Smith, the new CEO, might want to shine in his second year at the helm, and reversing some over provisioning would help.
Although BOL is reasonably priced when its SP is about $1.20, or less, if its EPS, dividend payment and debt-related ratios improve at the same time that the All Ords index moves out of its current slough, then the SP will improve by having both the EPS and PER rising. I am probably a dreamer, but this is what I think will happen, and so I hold onto my BOL shares, which I watch like a hawk.
As an aside, one thing that seems odd about BOL is that directors have often bought shares, and the SP has continued to fall. Maybe they too have been the victims of the old mushroom treatment (keep them in the dark and feed them horse excretement).
Out Too Soon
My real name is King Julian ;)
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I like this chart so much I bought the company
Oh well a tiny bit of it Posts have been very quite on it for a while, Inc charts found it for me
Cross fingers this month is shaping up very nicely for a change :chimney
Out Too Soon
My real name is King Julian ;)
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View attachment 33092
I like this chart so much I bought the company
Posts have been very quite on it for a while, Inc charts found it for me
Cross fingers this month is shaping up very nicely for a change :chimney
Such enthusiasm & euphoria
within half an hour the sp dropped almost 10%heres the same chart with added humble pie in face end bit.
This is what you call the OTS BUY effect
Still holding, just above stop loss
think things should go according to script from here (up)
