BOL - Boom Logistics

[bewick]

I hold BOL and am long for the longterm,I do believe it has been heavily oversold and am getting margin calls at the moment, will have to sort that out.

Similar thing towhat happened to just group in '05 when it went from the mid 3 to 1.80 I held and now i am laughing to the bank over 5 at the moment have doubled my money just regret not buying upmore

 

[tolimenso]

I think pessimism has taken over this stock...it's been oversold as if it was making losses, but it's still profitable. At PER of around 9 and >5% yield looks good to me...

 

[tronic72]

I recently lost $1500 in a week on Bol but am tempted to buy back at current prices. Seems too good too miss out on at the moment. The only concern I have, as suggested by a previous poster is their high level of debt.

Over sold? Under valued? I think so.

What do you guys/gals think?

 

[tronic72]

I've been a long-time supporter of BOL and have held on from over $4 in beleif that the company was well run, had a solid BS and the long-term fundamentals were in place. Despite the weather-related downgrades and "one offs" I have remained positive. However I am reconsidering my position:
1) if BOL has a truly integrated, flexible 'national' network and accompanying IT as we are told, then unforeseen fluctuations in demand in certain areas (eg. Hunter Valley floods, WA cyclones) should be handled without significant margin destruction.
2) if a range of exogenous factors (such as equipment shortages/port delays etc) has restricted supply, then why hasn't BOL benefited from the economics of scarcity: pricing power. Other companies in similar industries are facing supply constaints and shortages but have profited through higher prices and margins - in fact, this is the underlying economics behind the present mining boom!
3) if cranes are hard to source and there are 12+ month delivery delays for a company like BOL (who has a small sales division) - why hasn't this stimulated demand for crane hiring services?

Since I have the economics correct - then I am left wondering why BOL hasn't flourished in the current environment? Are there other long-term bulls for Boom Log. or have they already bailed out?

Brendan,

Given you've bought in at the $4 mark I'd say you'd be crazy to leave now. You'll suffer a massive loss.

I've no doubt the company will bounce back and I believe BOL is oversold by the large institutions but by the same token it was many of those large players that pumped the stock up to it's recent highs so one could also say the recent highs were over inflated.

If you can afford to hang on and I'd wait. Easier said than done as I just coped a $1500 loss on BOL over a week but as the current prices have shown it could have been worse.

My 2c

 

[bewick]

Directors have been buying big time recently at these low levels.

They have been buying in market & in sums of 100,000 dollars plus

Look at latest filings

 

[ROE]

Business doesn't look rosy according to the announcement


port congestion in Queensland and NSW;
• the Queensland 10 year rebuild programme to meet legislative and Queensland
customer requirements;
• strong competition in the access hire market impacting on margins and staff retention;
and
• shortage of heavy equipment supply.

plus they have massive debt on their books so it a double wamping..
Pay higher interest repayment, couple with lower income... no wonder the big funds are bailing out.

And the director purchase is nothing significant it's all on their cosy superannuation account, 100K on these guys account is nothing significant
I consider 500K or more to be a significant figure.

 

[3MT]

BOL is fair value now, I wouldn't take the director's 100K buying lightly, theses guys shouldn't be that far away from retirement. I think its debt is manageable and its still a profitable company operating at decent margins and is a dominant player in its niche market.

At this stage its hard to gauge if $2 is the new resistance level or support level, but my guess is its going to move sideways from here for a while unless someone spreads a rumour.

 

[tronic72]

BOL Is good value at the moment. Looking to buy back in. Anyone have any thoughts?

Volume has flattened out which I take to mean those that wanted to bail out have done so. I think we'll see the share price level out (already happening) before it begins to pick up. A good report is all they need to turn things around. The market got sick of disappointment with Boom.

Happy new year all!

 

[mrgroundwork]

Wow this has taken a hammering for a company that is still profitable...

I bought in at around $3, made a decent paper profit, then it tanked... my stop/loss sold out my position back at $2.70... glad I did that... this thing just keeps going down...

I feel for the long term holders as this is going to take a long time to recover...

I am tempted to buy back in, but am just not sold on it yet...

 

[tronic72]

WOW!!! Almost under a dollar. I'm tempted to buy back in now. Luckily I sold my CFDs a while ago but i don't think anyone could have anticipated the fall from grace of this stock.

Remember only 6-12 months ago when EVERYONE was recommending BOL. Think I'll buy 5K worth when it drops below $1.



Edit: Just noticed Huntley's Recommendation from the 10/12/07
Recommendation Impact: The stock is an Accumulate below $2.20 and Buy below $1.9

 

[ROE]

Time to rename to Bust Logistic when it tanks below 1 buck
I think anything that has high debt now scare people off ...
It doesn't take long for a company with high debt to go belly up if things dont work out

 

[Tristo]

I've been watching BOL for a long time. Will it ever hit a bottom? It seems too cheap to be true, and if I was in I'd be in for the longer term - but it just keeps going down

 

[tronic72]

I've been watching BOL for a long time. Will it ever hit a bottom? It seems too cheap to be true, and if I was in I'd be in for the longer term - but it just keeps going down

Has hit resistance of sorts at $1.10. If it goes below $1 then it may be anyone's guess. Thing to remember is the company will only make 36.6 million if they are lucky. Their current share price must be hammering their cash flow.

Edit: Just Realised that their current dividend is 11c. Buying this share at it's current price would give you a guaranteed return of 11%. Better than a bank! I'll buy tomorrow.

 

[YELNATS]

Edit: Just Realised that their current dividend is 11c. Buying this share at it's current price would give you a guaranteed return of 11%. Better than a bank! I'll buy tomorrow.

Exactly right. Finished at $1.065 today with a dividend yield of 10.33%, 100% franked. Next dividend due to paid in March.

 

[3MT]

its got a fair amount of debt and quite little cash in bank.

I hope it does churn out a profit to pay the dividends because a loss would turn this thing into another commander.

maybe the market knows something we don't? I'm surprised there has been no reverse speeding ticket from the ASX and also no attempts by management to issue an on track statement of some sort.

 

[tronic72]

its got a fair amount of debt and quite little cash in bank.

I hope it does churn out a profit to pay the dividends because a loss would turn this thing into another commander.

maybe the market knows something we don't? I'm surprised there has been no reverse speeding ticket from the ASX and also no attempts by management to issue an on track statement of some sort.

I saw a report somewhere that said their first quarter would be between 16 & 17 million in profits. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Anyone know who Boom's main competitor is? A friend said there's a competitor undercutting them.

 

[Ken]

The Age had a picture of floods up in Queensland with a Boom Logistics crane under water.


I am no scientist, but the market has priced a number of stocks like this.

Look at BOL, AFG, AIO.

A few stocks that were trading on really high yields.

Downgrade coming I suspect.

 

[Buffettology]

This is certainly an interesting fall from grace!

Ive had my eye on it for a long time now.

Very big losses! My brother bought this one and I told him not too, he bought it at $2.90, ha ha, only makes me laugh because he is a multi-millionaire anyways and most things he touches turn to gold! Maybe he will take my advice next time instead of thinking he is the all-knowing......fat chance of that!

 

[Jimminy]

Check out the profit guidance from Emeco yesterday and you start to see where Boom is also headed...

 

[tronic72]

It's stating the obvious that BOL has had a huge fall recently but is the company still viable? I think yes.

If you take the Cyclone out of the equation last year BOL would have done considerably better. Considering the huge increase in commercial construction going on at the moment BOL should be powering ahead. I think management has performed poorly and injecting some new blood is warranted.