Becoming competent at forex trading

[Kryzz]

Remember commission drag! How much commission have you paid so far?

Trading via a retail broker at the moment, so not paying commissions per se - only the spread. Given that I'm trading daily and trade frequency is low it's not really an issue.

I used to trade the spot market with IB their minimum commission was about $2.5 approx from memory. Commissions of this nature would be a factor, not at this poit in time though for me.

 

[Kryzz]

Hi Wysiwyg
I know dollar wise it's peanuts but I only look at percentage return not dollars or pips gained.

Once I have been trading this for 3-6 months, if I see decent results I will be looking to trade the same method with a decent sized 5 figure account. If can make between 2-5% per month for example I'll be very happy with that.

Looking at the daily charts takes about 10mins each morning and am risking only 1% each trade, bumping up the risk once results are looking better should produce a decent return also.

Well looking back at this post it seems I was way off the money here.


After 3 months of trading (taking it 'seriously' this time), my account is down about 1% letalone making 2-5% a month. Gotta say this doesn't fill me with confidence, but still feel I'm making some progress.


As for the title of this thread, Becoming competent at forex trading, all I can say is it definitely takes a lot of time and a consistency. I've shared my results below for anyone who is interested and open critique !

 

[tech/a]

Well looking back at this post it seems I was way off the money here.


After 3 months of trading (taking it 'seriously' this time), my account is down about 1% letalone making 2-5% a month. Gotta say this doesn't fill me with confidence, but still feel I'm making some progress.


As for the title of this thread, Becoming competent at forex trading, all I can say is it definitely takes a lot of time and a consistency. I've shared my results below for anyone who is interested and open critique !

View attachment 69421

Just a quick look Kryzz

I can see a low win rate with lots of losses.
If you can increase win rate to above 50% and decrease
the losses along with higher win relative to loss size
then you'll have a better expectancy and figures.

Thanks for sharing

 

[peter2]

I'm prepared to look through those trades if you first briefly outline your trading setup(s). If you'll tell us what you were trying to do then I'll check that you were actually doing it. OK?

Note: Your calculation for expectancy must be incorrect. It should be negative as this batch of results hasn't made a profit. Total P&L / #T = -43.26/26 = -1.66.

 

[captain black]

I've shared my results below for anyone who is interested and open critique !

Your win/loss ratio of 42/58 is more typical of a trend following system where you'd expect to have a few wins of large R multiples. Your largest wins are just over 1R.

I'd be interested to see how you're managing these trades.

 

[CanOz]

Perhaps even share your trading plan....

 

[Kryzz]

Thanks guys.

Peter - sounds like a plan.

I'll be sure to post some screenshots of trades I've taken once I'm home from work.

As far as trading plans - I look to trade pin bars/reversals at support and resistance or pullbacks in the direction of a strong move up or down. Hopefully some of the charts I post up can help demonstrate.

I think my trade management has light years to go. Originally I was holding to positions anticipating a larger move, but perhaps in the FX world I might have been best off taking profit.

 

[peter2]

As far as trading plans - I look to trade pin bars/reversals at support and resistance or pullbacks in the direction of a strong move up or down. Hopefully some of the charts I post up can help demonstrate.

Not quite all I need. What's your trading time frame? D, 4H, 1H ?

 

[peter2]

OK I noticed that the setups are based on daily charts.

1. Your table should record the initial SL (iSL).
Then you can more easily calc your results as R multiples.

2. Some of the setups are poor (#3, #5 ...

3. Your money management seems inconsistent on a few trades.
You started off risking $50 (1%) per trade then it becomes inconsistent. I'm looking at the trade P&L and comparing it to your R multiple. (+$50 = +1R). I expect a few minor differences due to currency calculation round offs.

Trade #4 CADJPY doesn't compute +90pips for a very small win +0.05. That would imply an iSL of 20 x 90pips.

Trade #11 GBPCAD +168pips for a $0.29 profit ???

Overall: You've done a good job to end up approx even (-1R) over 26 trades based on daily bars and very conservative stop losses. You got this result because you didn't let any any loss get too big. I think this is the first skill a trader needs to learn. You have shown you have this skill. Good work.

You didn't get the profits you should have when prices went the right way for you. I think this is mainly due to the size of your initial stop loss. Most of them seemed to be placed properly, but there are a few (examples given earlier, and others) that went your way but you didn't get the +1 to +2R results you should have had with a smaller stop loss size.

I think you should continue on, but trade perfect setups. Not all your setups were pinbars or high probability bullish bars. You may learn something going through my bullish bar setups mentioned in the ASX Weekly Portfolio thread (Members only). I outlined four bullish bar setups. You can use these plus their bearish versions for daily forex charts.

Create a checklist outlining perfect setups (Key reversals, HCDs, LCDs, engulfing bars, pinbars)
Pinbars:
- must go through a major S/R level for a reversal trade.
- must hit 50% fib retracement level for a setup into the trend.

2. Now for the something different that I'm recommending you try for the next 20 trades.
Reduce your iSL size to 80% of the daily signal bar. If the pinbar is 100pips (low to high), use 80 pips as your stop loss size.

3. Close any trade that trades at +2R. (+$100). Place these orders in the market after the trade starts.

Report back after the next 20 trades.

 

[Wysiwyg]

I noticed something you may consider. You posted ...

As far as trading plans - I look to trade pin bars/reversals at support and resistance or pullbacks in the direction of a strong move up or down.

On this USD/JPY trade open LONG 20/12/16 you bought at daily resistance (daily since you are longer term hold). My screenshot has your entry line in white and it is spot on old support which after such an explosive move up is a highly likely area of resistance. Hope this helps.

 

[Kryzz]

OK I noticed that the setups are based on daily charts.

1. Your table should record the initial SL (iSL).
Then you can more easily calc your results as R multiples.

2. Some of the setups are poor (#3, #5 ...

3. Your money management seems inconsistent on a few trades.
You started off risking $50 (1%) per trade then it becomes inconsistent. I'm looking at the trade P&L and comparing it to your R multiple. (+$50 = +1R). I expect a few minor differences due to currency calculation round offs.

Trade #4 CADJPY doesn't compute +90pips for a very small win +0.05. That would imply an iSL of 20 x 90pips.

Trade #11 GBPCAD +168pips for a $0.29 profit ???

Overall: You've done a good job to end up approx even (-1R) over 26 trades based on daily bars and very conservative stop losses. You got this result because you didn't let any any loss get too big. I think this is the first skill a trader needs to learn. You have shown you have this skill. Good work.

You didn't get the profits you should have when prices went the right way for you. I think this is mainly due to the size of your initial stop loss. Most of them seemed to be placed properly, but there are a few (examples given earlier, and others) that went your way but you didn't get the +1 to +2R results you should have had with a smaller stop loss size.

I think you should continue on, but trade perfect setups. Not all your setups were pinbars or high probability bullish bars. You may learn something going through my bullish bar setups mentioned in the ASX Weekly Portfolio thread (Members only). I outlined four bullish bar setups. You can use these plus their bearish versions for daily forex charts.

Create a checklist outlining perfect setups (Key reversals, HCDs, LCDs, engulfing bars, pinbars)
Pinbars:
- must go through a major S/R level for a reversal trade.
- must hit 50% fib retracement level for a setup into the trend.

2. Now for the something different that I'm recommending you try for the next 20 trades.
Reduce your iSL size to 80% of the daily signal bar. If the pinbar is 100pips (low to high), use 80 pips as your stop loss size.

3. Close any trade that trades at +2R. (+$100). Place these orders in the market after the trade starts.

Report back after the next 20 trades.

Thank you for the feedback Peter! I should have posted sooner.

I don't record the iSL, I will begin to do this going forward - will add an additional column for stats and annotate my charts better.

Re that GBPCAD which was +168 pips for $0.29 and the CADJPY trades - I recorded my exit price in error. Another point for me to record trades more carefully.

Looks like I'll be going through all my closed trades and making sure I've recorded everything accurately - seems like I haven't been. Will also reduce the iSL and utilise checklists for future trades!

 

[Kryzz]

I noticed something you may consider. You posted ...

On this USD/JPY trade open LONG 20/12/16 you bought at daily resistance (daily since you are longer term hold). My screenshot has your entry line in white and it is spot on old support which after such an explosive move up is a highly likely area of resistance. Hope this helps.

View attachment 69427

View attachment 69428

Thanks Wysiwyg. I think I was chasing prices higher with the USDJPY run of late and didn't even think to look bigger picture.

I've had two trades triggered also before I posted this afternoon. I'll leave the thread with them for now and review all past trades and report back once I have some more trades under my belt.

 

[peter2]

I looked through all the main pairs this evening and liked both of the pairs you've chosen.
EURGBP: If price goes down to the prior low this will give you a +1R result and you're going to need a break through support (0.8300) to get more. In these instances I'll grab the +1.1R or +1.2R and wait to see what happens at that level.

 

[pamk]

Yes, there are only a very unique few (two or three) on this forum that can and have done it well...professionally, day in and day out with Other Peoples Money for more than a few years.

Hi Wysiwyg and CanOz (and others), I'm new to the Forum and fairly new to trading. I'm debating getting training in FX trading with a group called LearnToTrade (set up by Greg Secker, author of "Financial Freedom Through Forex") and trying to assess how difficult it is to make money at this considering I would need to earn back the setup cost ($5k, incl. software). My aim would be to achieve track record of >70% win ratio consistently for several months and then start trading Other Peoples' Money to get a larger income stream (my pot isn't yet big enough to earn much trading only it) - LearnToTrade have an option where successful traders can trade OPM.

I attended a short seminar yesterday by LearnToTrade and the demo of their software (Smartcharts) looked fairly straightforward provided you stick to the process they've devised & targets they set. I am disciplined so I don't envisage problems in following the 'rules' totally to the letter, but reading your posts makes me think again about whether they might be making it look simpler than it really is, even with their software and rules. SmartCharts was purpose-developed and colour-codes viable pairings worth looking at further and to make it more idiot-proof the chart for the pair has only a Sell or Buy button (depending on the trend). Do you think FX trading will be less complicated and difficult with this kind of specialist software that's integrated with dedicated brokers? Or is it likely to be a many-months learning process still?

The training is not cheap ($5,000) but includes 2 full days immersion training using SmartCharts on my own laptop + 1 day in the trenches with traders using my own real money + a personal coach allocated (professional trader) + live streaming of head-coach's trades so I could copy them.

The 'rules' include things like trade only after 2 similar-trend cycles with 2 phases are completed, look at only high-probability trades, be aware of the news and trade only after it is announced, mostly trend-following trades, max. 2% of fund on any one position, stop loss at 2%, Take The Money don't hang around waiting for more upside.

Would very much appreciate any thoughts on LearnToTrade's offering. I am happy to put in the hours over a month or two to learn a system if it's likely to lead to success.

Cheers, Pam

 

[skyQuake]

Greg Seckers is a known character...

http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/2405837
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-19909942
http://www.scamreviews.net/forex/greg-seckers-learn-trade-scam-review/
http://swing-trading-strategies.com...blowing-away-3000-greg-seckers-forex-seminar/

Always ask old question of 'if this guys so good why isn't he trading it himself?'

 

[Wysiwyg]

Hi Wysiwyg.

Hi Pam. Sorry, I don't know anything about the company so no comment from me.

 

[pamk]

Greg Seckers is a known character...

http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/2405837
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-19909942
http://www.scamreviews.net/forex/greg-seckers-learn-trade-scam-review/
http://swing-trading-strategies.com...blowing-away-3000-greg-seckers-forex-seminar/

Always ask old question of 'if this guys so good why isn't he trading it himself?'

thanks heaps skyQuake for those links. I tried looking for him via Google but didn't see those articles. I'm out!

 

[pamk]

Hi Pam. Sorry, I don't know anything about the company so no comment from me.

thanks for the response Wysiwyg, skyQuake has set me straight. I'll learn from the many free resources on 'net.

 

[Aladin]

If you want to be fully competent in forex trading, you need to have a strong understanding of the tools involved in trading. Also, traders who want to be competent must forget to be a disciplined trader. Most traders fail not because they lack knowledge but it is due to a lack of discipline.

“

 

[Kryzz]

Well looking back at this post it seems I was way off the money here.


After 3 months of trading (taking it 'seriously' this time), my account is down about 1% letalone making 2-5% a month. Gotta say this doesn't fill me with confidence, but still feel I'm making some progress.


As for the title of this thread, Becoming competent at forex trading, all I can say is it definitely takes a lot of time and a consistency. I've shared my results below for anyone who is interested and open critique !

View attachment 69421

Almost 20 trades (18) since my last post in this thread, and have definitely been taking note and have tried to amend my trading approach since January's post. I feel my last handful have trades have improved, even though modestly, I feel it's a step in the right direction.

I feel I need to hone in on my exit once I have trades that are in profit >1+R, I reckon I have let 3 or 4 of these slip to break even trades which didn't need to be.

Hopefully my next 20 trades keep on in the right direction. Win % is now at 52% up from 42% from when I last posted, avg win has slightly decreased whilst avg loss has decreased. I put this down to closing more trades at break even or there abouts.

Latest lot of trade results and equity curve below!