Australian Politics General...

[SirRumpole]

Good observation. Yes it is, not in burden of proof, but in media treatment.

You would think Newscorp would be all over it.

Maybe no-one reads them these days.

 

[sptrawler]

This should be interesting, I only directly know one company (travel agency) that used jobkeeper, it did keep the owner afloat and she was very stressed, but has come through and kept her three employees going.
Now the business is cranking back up toward pre covid volumes, so no doubt jobkeeper was rorted as most Govt initiatives are and no doubt it could have been rolled out better with more time.
So a review of it will be very interesting, to see if it is worth considering again, or not, also where it failed and where it worked.

Treasury launches JobKeeper review​

ByShane Wright​

The single largest federal government stimulus program used to support the economy through the COVID pandemic, the $90 billion JobKeeper program, will be subject to an independent review to determine if it delivered value for money to the nation’s taxpayers.
The Federal Treasury, on Friday evening, revealed it had set up the review that will also examine whether the program should be used to deal with future economic downturns and if it could be designed better.
JobKeeper was a wage subsidy program announced by the Morrison government in March 2020 just as the economy was effectively shut down to stop the spread of Covid-19. Initially forecast to cost $130 billion, JobKeeper was aimed at supporting employees who worked for businesses that expected to suffer a decline of at least 30 per cent in their revenue for at least 6 months. Businesses received $1500 a fortnight for each eligible worker. This was reduced to $1200 for full-time workers from late September and to $1000 between January and March in 2021.
An early examination of the program by Treasury found the scheme, one of the largest interventions by a government in the labour market, had supported businesses and workers through the depths of Covid.

But there was criticism of the scheme, particularly from now Treasury minister Andrew Leigh, about how money flowed to businesses that boosted their profits through the pandemic and did not need to pay back the taxpayers’ cash they received.

There has been further criticism that the sheer scale of JobKeeper has contributed to the economy’s inflation pressures that have forced the Reserve Bank to lift official interest rates to an 11-year high of 4.1 per cent.

The review, to be headed by former deputy Treasury secretary Nigel Ray, will examine the impact of JobKeeper on workers, businesses that received the payment, the job market and the broader economy.

“The JobKeeper Evaluation will consider the objectives and design and effectiveness of JobKeeper. It will also record lessons learned from the design and implementation of JobKeeper, with a view to informing future policy responses,” the department said.

Treasury has estimated that without intervention at the time, unemployment could have reached 15 per cent and remain elevated for a long period of time.

The review will look at the program’s impact on the distribution of income, whether there should have been a provision to clawback cash from firms that ultimately profited during the pandemic, and also if there were “unanticipated costs and effects associated with the design and implementation of JobKeeper”.

 

[IFocus]

This should be interesting, I only directly know one company (travel agency) that used jobkeeper, it did keep the owner afloat and she was very stressed, but has come through and kept her three employees going.
Now the business is cranking back up toward pre covid volumes, so no doubt jobkeeper was rorted as most Govt initiatives are and no doubt it could have been rolled out better with more time.
So a review of it will be very interesting, to see if it is worth considering again, or not, also where it failed and where it worked.

​

That is what it was meant to do except $40 bil went to profitable company's $26bil went straight over seas it will be interesting

 

[sptrawler]

That is what it was meant to do except $40 bil went to profitable company's $26bil went straight over seas it will be interesting

Well as is the way in the past, the Govt has every right to recover it and can do so if it so wishes for up to 7 years.
As usual it becomes a decision between what is perceived as right and what can become a chain reaction of unintended consequences.
Time will tell how it goes, as usual with all these things, one has to look through both eyes, as will no doubt happen.

 

[Knobby22]

Well as is the way in the past, the Govt has every right to recover it and can do so if it so wishes.
As usual it becomes a decision between what is perceived as right and what can become a chain reaction of unintended consequences.
Time will tell.

Time has told.
The idea was good.

As Peter Costello said however, Frydenberg should have had a claw back provision for firms that took the money and went better during the lockdown or didn't use the money for the correct reasons.

I know my boss did extremely well out of it as we were busier during the lockdown. At least the money didn't get sent overseas.

Billions of dollars wasted. Our money, our (big) debt.

 

[wayneL]

It was just one part of the whole horrible schytshow, a litany of decisions of diabolical stupidity.

 

[sptrawler]

Time has told.
The idea was good.

As Peter Costello said however, Frydenberg should have had a claw back provision for firms that took the money and went better during the lockdown or didn't use the money for the correct reasons.

I know my boss did extremely well out of it as we were busier during the lockdown. At least the money didn't get sent overseas.

Billions of dollars wasted. Our money, our (big) debt.

There is always a claw back provision with the Government, it just depends if they want to use it, as I said time will tell.

If your boss didn't suffer a 30% reduction of income, he can be called upon to re pay it, if it will send him broke they may give him time payments but the ATO interest rates are far higher than mortgage rates. ?

Just depends on the Govt, I know the daughter was busted for an overpayment 6 years later, let's see what the Govt does.
Same as workers I know took $10k out of their super during covid and were working, only a couple have been busted, up to now.

By the way, I don't know where you got the "no clawback provision from", maybe you could point it out.
Maybe you could forward your bosses name to the ATO, being a good upstanding citizen, of high morals and honesty, as there is no claw back facility. ?

 

[Knobby22]

There is always a claw back provision with the Government, it just depends if they want to use it, as I said time will tell.

If your boss didn't suffer a 30% reduction of income, he can be called upon to re pay it, if it will send him broke they may give him time payments but the ATO interest rates are far higher than mortgage rates. ?

Just depends on the Govt, I know the daughter was busted for an overpayment 6 years later, let's see what the Govt does.
Same as workers I know took $10k out of their super during covid and were working, only a couple have been busted, up to now.

By the way, I don't know where you got the "no clawback provision from", maybe you could point it out.

He can't , no claw back provision.
My boss kept it.

Solly Lew made millions out of it. Ask Peter Costello, a man I greatly respect.

Harvey Norman were shamed into giving some back but he didn't have to.

 

[sptrawler]

He can't , no claw back provision.
My boss kept it.

Solly Lew made millions out of it. Ask Peter Costello, a man I greatly respect.

Harvey Norman were shamed into giving some back but he didn't have to.

Time will tell, read page 12, pretty broad statements by the ATO, as usual.
If one of the criteria is a drop of 30% income, that falls into the below guidelines. Just my opinion
I will ask Peter next time we're having coffee, i'll give him your regards and mention your adulation.

https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/JobKeeper_frequently_asked_questions.pdf

Compliance WHAT WILL BE DONE TO ENSURE COMPLIANCE? This program will be subject to ATO compliance and audit activities. There will be a positive obligation on employers to establish their eligibility and that of their employees. In addition, the ATO will cross-check payments with Services Australia data, and data from other government agencies, and undertake activities designed to identify multiple or ineligible payments to individuals.
WHAT IS THE GOVERNMENT GOING TO DO TO ENSURE COMPANIES DON’T MANIPULATE THEIR TURNOVER TO ENSURE THEY QUALIFY? The ATO will provide guidance to help businesses self-assess their eligibility. This will include for circumstances that do not fit neatly into more general circumstances that the majority of businesses are in. The Government will include appropriate integrity rules to prevent employers from entering into artificial schemes in order to get inappropriate access to payments. There are serious consequences, including large penalties and possible imprisonment, for those trying to illegally get benefits under the scheme

 

[SirRumpole]

Time will tell, read page 12, pretty broad statements by the ATO, as usual.
If one of the criteria is a drop of 30% income, that falls into the below guidelines. Just my opinion
I will ask Peter next time we're having coffee, i'll give him your regards and mention your adulation.

https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/JobKeeper_frequently_asked_questions.pdf

Compliance WHAT WILL BE DONE TO ENSURE COMPLIANCE? This program will be subject to ATO compliance and audit activities. There will be a positive obligation on employers to establish their eligibility and that of their employees. In addition, the ATO will cross-check payments with Services Australia data, and data from other government agencies, and undertake activities designed to identify multiple or ineligible payments to individuals.
WHAT IS THE GOVERNMENT GOING TO DO TO ENSURE COMPANIES DON’T MANIPULATE THEIR TURNOVER TO ENSURE THEY QUALIFY? The ATO will provide guidance to help businesses self-assess their eligibility. This will include for circumstances that do not fit neatly into more general circumstances that the majority of businesses are in. The Government will include appropriate integrity rules to prevent employers from entering into artificial schemes in order to get inappropriate access to payments. There are serious consequences, including large penalties and possible imprisonment, for those trying to illegally get benefits under the scheme

I don't see many CEO's committing suicide over Jobkeeper overpayments, unlike some unfortunate victims of Robodebt.

 

[Knobby22]

I will ask Peter next time we're having coffee, i'll give him your regards and mention your adulation.

He was our last really good treasurer.

 

[SirRumpole]

He was our last really good treasurer.

Apart from Wayne Swan who won an international award.

 

[sptrawler]

He was our last really good treasurer.

Treasurers have to deal with the cards they are dealt and pander to party politics, so whether he was the best, or held the position through the best period of time is subjective.
On a qualifications basis I would say Frydenberg was the best qualified and he held the position over a pretty tumultuous 4 year period, but whether he was the best is a subjective observation IMO.
Keating brought about the most radical changes, Costello held a steady line through a calm period and brought about some intelligent moves and Frydenberg had to handle a complete country shutdown which had never been done before.
They all did well in their own ways, who was the best? Very subjective decision, which I wouldn't make.

Paul Keating:
Leaving De La Salle College—now known as LaSalle Catholic College—at the age of 14, Keating left high school rather than pursuing higher education, instead working as a pay clerk at the Sydney County Council's electricity distributor. Keating also attended Belmore Technical High School to further his education.[14] He then worked as research assistant for a trade union, having joined the Labor Party as soon as he was eligible. In 1966, he became president of New South Wales Young Labor.[15] During the 1960s, Keating also managed a rock band named The Ramrods.

Peter Costello:
Costello was educated at Carey Baptist Grammar School and Monash University, where he studied arts and law, graduating with honours in 1982.[4

Josh Frydenberg:
Frydenberg completed honours degrees in economics and law at Monash University, where he became president of the Law Students Society,[8] before working at Mallesons Stephen Jaques, a large Australian commercial law firm. Frydenberg won both a Fulbright Scholarship to attend Yale University and a Commonwealth Scholarship to attend the University of Oxford. He opted to accept the latter, completing a Master of International Relations at University College, Oxford, with a thesis on Indonesian politics

 

[sptrawler]

I don't see many CEO's committing suicide over Jobkeeper overpayments, unlike some unfortunate victims of Robodebt.

I don't see CEO's paying for any of their mistakes, mainly shareholders and employees.

 

[Knobby22]

Treasurers have to deal with the cards they are dealt and pander to party politics, so whether he was the best, or held the position through the best period of time is subjective.
On a qualifications basis I would say Frydenberg was the best qualified and he held the position over a pretty tumultuous 4 year period, but whether he was the best is a subjective observation IMO.
Keating brought about the most radical changes, Costello held a steady line through a calm period and brought about some intelligent moves and Frydenberg had to handle a complete country shutdown which had never been done before.
They all did well in their own ways, who was the best? Very subjective decision, which I wouldn't make.

Paul Keating:
Leaving De La Salle College—now known as LaSalle Catholic College—at the age of 14, Keating left high school rather than pursuing higher education, instead working as a pay clerk at the Sydney County Council's electricity distributor. Keating also attended Belmore Technical High School to further his education.[14] He then worked as research assistant for a trade union, having joined the Labor Party as soon as he was eligible. In 1966, he became president of New South Wales Young Labor.[15] During the 1960s, Keating also managed a rock band named The Ramrods.

Peter Costello:
Costello was educated at Carey Baptist Grammar School and Monash University, where he studied arts and law, graduating with honours in 1982.[4

Josh Frydenberg:
Frydenberg completed honours degrees in economics and law at Monash University, where he became president of the Law Students Society,[8] before working at Mallesons Stephen Jaques, a large Australian commercial law firm. Frydenberg won both a Fulbright Scholarship to attend Yale University and a Commonwealth Scholarship to attend the University of Oxford. He opted to accept the latter, completing a Master of International Relations at University College, Oxford, with a thesis on Indonesian politics

I don't rate Frydenberg. He will be remembered for creating nearly $1 Trillion debt. Don't remember any economic reform either.

 

[sptrawler]

I don't rate Frydenberg. He will be remembered for creating nearly $1 Trillion debt.

Well of course that is one side of the equation, the other side of the equation is how long did the economy (GDP, ASX and unemployment) take to return to pre covid levels.
Like I said it is all subjective and everyone has a different take on it, how he will be remembered is yet to be seen.
He will be marked against how we compare to other economies in the recovery, not on how much it cost and personal opinions as the only metrics IMO.
We are yet to see how we are currently travelling.
Some use actual stats, rather than emotion to make judgements, it just isn't as exciting though.

During covid and immediately post covid:
26/06/2021

International economic comparisons after a year of the pandemic

www.abs.gov.au

Australia’s GDP is 0.8% higher than December 2019, which is among the strongest results across OECD countries and one of the few countries to be above pre-pandemic levels. This aligns with Australia’s above average mobility through the pandemic, reflecting faster easing of COVID-19 restrictions relative to most OECD countries.

AND MORE CURRENT:
04/10/2022

The government talks a lot about a 'trillion dollar debt'. But what does that actually mean?

In late June, Australia's national debt was $895 billion, but many economists argue the total, or gross debt figure is not the best debt figure to look at, Tom Lowrey writes.

www.abc.net.au

So how big is the national debt?​

At the end of June, the total size of Australia's national debt was $895 billion.

That's about $100 billion short a trillion dollars.

But many economists argue the total, or gross debt figure is not the best debt figure to look at.

They point to the net debt figure, which takes the total debt then subtracts many of the government's financial assets — like cash it holds, deposits and loans it is owed.

That figure is substantially lower, at $515 billion, or just over half a trillion dollars.

Which is still a huge amount of money. But economists also look to another key indicator.

They compare the size of the debt, to the size of Australia's economy.

Net debt is currently at 22.5 per cent of GDP, or just over a fifth of Australia's total national income.

Gross debt is obviously higher, at closer to 40 per cent.

It's a big debt, but it's not the biggest

Comparing debt to GDP allows Australia's debt to be put in a global context, too.

And the comparisons are actually pretty good.

Australia's gross debt-to-GDP is below average in the OECD, which is basically a collection of wealthy countries.

Countries like the UK and US are carrying debts larger than their economy.

 

[Knobby22]

Well of course that is one side of the equation, the other side of the equation is how long did the economy (GDP, ASX and unemployment) take to return to pre covid levels.
Like I said it is all subjective and everyone has a different take on it, how he will be remembered is yet to be seen.
He will be marked against how we compare to other economies in the recovery, not on how much it cost and personal opinions as the only metrics IMO.
We are yet to see how we are currently travelling.
Some use actual stats, rather than emotion to make judgements, it just isn't as exciting though.

During covid and immediately post covid:

International economic comparisons after a year of the pandemic

www.abs.gov.au

Australia’s GDP is 0.8% higher than December 2019, which is among the strongest results across OECD countries and one of the few countries to be above pre-pandemic levels. This aligns with Australia’s above average mobility through the pandemic, reflecting faster easing of COVID-19 restrictions relative to most OECD countries.

AND MORE CURRENT:

The government talks a lot about a 'trillion dollar debt'. But what does that actually mean?

In late June, Australia's national debt was $895 billion, but many economists argue the total, or gross debt figure is not the best debt figure to look at, Tom Lowrey writes.

www.abc.net.au

So how big is the national debt?​

At the end of June, the total size of Australia's national debt was $895 billion.

That's about $100 billion short a trillion dollars.

But many economists argue the total, or gross debt figure is not the best debt figure to look at.

They point to the net debt figure, which takes the total debt then subtracts many of the government's financial assets — like cash it holds, deposits and loans it is owed.

That figure is substantially lower, at $515 billion, or just over half a trillion dollars.

Which is still a huge amount of money. But economists also look to another key indicator.

They compare the size of the debt, to the size of Australia's economy.

Net debt is currently at 22.5 per cent of GDP, or just over a fifth of Australia's total national income.

Gross debt is obviously higher, at closer to 40 per cent.

It's a big debt, but it's not the biggest

Comparing debt to GDP allows Australia's debt to be put in a global context, too.

And the comparisons are actually pretty good.

Australia's gross debt-to-GDP is below average in the OECD, which is basically a collection of wealthy countries.

Countries like the UK and US are carrying debts larger than their economy.

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Oh well, I suppose you don't mind if Labor increase by say 30% more?

Frydenburg could have done better, including some dodgy stuff from some of the other ministers he should have stopped and then there was the lack of a clawback.
I know he isn't fully responsible as he had Morrison as the PM which made things very hard for him. I am sure Josh would have said was a force he couldn't control which is true.

In fact he shouldn't get all the blame as he wasn't the only Treasurer (unbeknownst to him). I bet he wishes he could live his time again, I am sure he would do things differently.

 

[sptrawler]

Oh well, I suppose you don't mind if Labor increase by say 30% more?

Frydenburg could have done better, including some dodgy stuff from some of the other ministers he should have stopped and then there was the lack of a clawback.
I know he isn't fully responsible as he had Morrison as the PM which made things very hard for him. I am sure Josh would have said was a force he couldn't control which is true.

In fact he shouldn't get all the blame as he wasn't the only Treasurer (unbeknownst to him). I bet he wishes he could live his time again, I am sure he would do things differently.

They will do what they do, I can't change that, only comment afterwards whether I thought the extra debt was avoidable or well intentioned.

Would I have liked to have seen the Govt give little support as the covid crisis unfolded, NO, I have lived through various crisis before and most ended up with a long recovery and a lot of misery and heartache.

Could it have been done better? Possibly, time will tell and I don't profess to be an expert.

I personally have done many things through life , I wish I had done some differently, unfortunately everyone else is an expert in hindsight.
I just wonder what you base your analysis on? I thought you were from a technical background.

THE ALL ORDS, SHOWING RECOVERY TIMES AFTER PREVIOUS CRISIS.

AND SINCE THE CFC, WE HAVE BASICALLY RECOVERED LOST GROUND IN ONE YEAR:

The asx has basically returned to pre covid levels, our market took 10 years to recover after the GFC, whether the recovery continues is yet to be seen.

 

[IFocus]

Even the Kiwis had a claw back provision for their job keeper total cluster not surprising that Labor will run an inquiry total free kick politics wise

 

[wayneL]

Van pulls the pin on the ilLiberal Party.

He wouldn't be the first pollie to pay the price for being a douchebag, nor would be be the first guy stitched up unfairly, for whatever reason.

I have no idea whether he is innocent or guilty and neither does anyone here.

So pending discovery of the truth, this is fair comment imo:

“Given the Liberal Party’s wholesale disregard for due process and natural justice in relation to allegations made against me, I write to resign my membership effective immediately.” Senator Van said in a statement late on Saturday.

“I resign also acknowledging the cruel irony of doing so amidst public discourse about the weaponisation of allegations and the role of the rule of law which has at its centre the presumption of innocence.

“I cannot remain a member of a party that tramples upon the very premise on which our justice system is predicated. This is a travesty of justice and I reiterate that I deny the allegations made against me.”

opinionem neutrum