August DDD

[ducati916]

So another early start, week 2 of covering for a colleague:



Oil News (prior to headline)

The Q2 quarterly earnings season has continued this week with most of oil majors reporting their performance results, with TotalEnergies and BP providing no clear direction for where oil firms are headed.

- Total’s net income underperformed market expectations of $4.95 billion and came in at $4.7 billion, with the French major dragged down by a 36% year-on-year decrease in refining and chemicals revenue.

- BP, for a long time the least mouth-watering of the oil giants, posted a $2.8 billion Q2 net profit and beat analyst expectations by some 200 million, despite a hefty $1.5 billion impairment from shutting parts of the Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany next year.

- Weaker downstream performance will be the main drag for US majors, too, with Chevron and ExxonMobil both publishing their results this Friday (August 2), with oil majors collectively expected to see a 6-7% drop in net profits quarter-over-quarter.

Market Movers

- US shale producers Vital Energy (NYSE:VTLE) and Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG) agreed to jointly purchase the Permian assets of PE-owned Point Energy Partners for $1.1 billion, with Vital taking 80% and Northern buying the remaining 20%.

- Chinese refining giant Sinochem (SHA:600500) is reportedly in talks with Brazilian independent producer Prio to sell a minority stake in the giant Peregrino offshore field, having paid $3 billion for a 40% stake in 2011.

- Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) signed a temporary exclusivity agreement with global investment firm KKR to sell a 20% to 25% stake in its biofuel and mobility unit Enilive for up to $13.5 billion.

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

For the first time since the post-OPEC+ meeting selloff, ICE Brent futures dipped below $80 per barrel, driven lower by disappointing global demand as Chinese imports in July are set to hit the lowest level in two years. The decline might be somewhat overdone considering the geopolitical risk upside, with Israel-Lebanon flaring up over the weekend and Venezuela’s highly contested election lifting the risk of operations in the Latin American nation.

With No Mandate for Change, OPEC+ Meets Again. Oil ministers of OPEC+ will hold an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) on August 1, reviewing the effects of decisions taken two months ago, but the market expects no changes, only internal discussions.

Labour Government Hikes UK Windfall Tax. The new Labour government confirmed this week that it would raise the windfall profit tax rate by 3% to 38% and increase overall taxation to a punitive 78%, whilst extending the measure (called Energy Profits Levy) by another year to 31 March 2030.

Uranium Prices Soar to 16-Year Highs. Long-term uranium prices have hit 16-year highs, trading as high as $79 per pound lately, as demand for the radioactive fuel is soaring on the back of new power generation buildouts that are expected to double global consumption by 2050.

King Coal Defies Calls for Global Decline. The International Energy Agency believes that global consumption of coal will remain stable in 2024, rising marginally to 8.74 billion tonnes, postponing its forecast for peak coal to 2025 when it sees a slight downslide, citing declining Chinese appetite for coal.

Saudi Influence Extends into LME Warehousing. Attesting to the increasing clout of Saudi Arabia in the mining industry, the London Metal Exchange (LME) has approved the Red Sea port of Jeddah as a warehouse delivery point for copper and zinc traded on the exchange.

Iran Seizes Another Oil Tanker for Smuggling. Iranian authorities have seized the Togo-flagged oil tanker Pearl G for allegedly carrying 700,000 barrels of smuggled crude, with tracking data indicating the vessel has spent the past months sailing between the UAE’s Sharjah and the Iraqi coast.

French Major Gave Up on South Africa. France’s energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has relinquished its stake in Blocks 11B and 12B offshore South Africa, despite having discovered two giant gas fields, citing a challenging environment to monetize the Luiperd and Brulpadda finds.

US Resumes SPR Purchases as WTI Drops. The US Energy Department purchased 4.65 million barrels of crude for the Bayou Choctaw site of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at an average price of $76.92 per barrel, with ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) offering the most and being awarded 3.9 million barrels.

Iraq Boosts Oil Export Capacity. Being the worst overproducers of OPEC+ in recent years, Iraq has nevertheless continued its build-out of crude infrastructure, adding two pumping units next to the Zubair oil field and adding 300,000 b/d of export capacity to around 3.5 million b/d.

Texas Oil Regulator Opens Probe into Earthquakes. Following last week’s powerful earthquakes across the Permian, with the largest measuring 5.1 on the Richter scale, the Railroad Commission of Texas has opened an investigation into disposal wells in the Camp Springs production area.

White House Has No Plans for Venezuela Tightening. Protests have erupted across Venezuela after Nicolas Maduro won a third six-year term in a highly contested vote, although the Biden administration said it is not looking into the retroactive cancellation of existing sanction waivers.

Glencore Mulls Coal Demerger, Announcement Soon. Mining giant Glencore (LON:GLEN) has kept its 2024 production guidance unchanged to reflect the purchase of Teck’s coking coal business, but it said it would disclose its decision on a potential coal demerger at its H1 financial results presentation next week.

US Natgas Prices Continue Their Downfall. US natural gas Henry Hub futures dipped below $2 per mmBtu this week, the lowest since early May, losing more than 55% of their value in less than a month on the back of soaring gas production and August promising to see milder weather compared to July.

Mr FFF

EARNINGS SEASON IS HERE​

Dr. Fly Tue Jul 30, 2024 4:32pm EST 2 Comments

Before I get into $MSFT, the story of $CRWD is an interesting one in that it’s likely going to be a terrific buy soon. I know your plebeian emotions belies in justice and that Crowdstrike will be punished for their crimes; but none of that is going to hammer is corruptible Pax Americana, the death of an Empire edition.

They are as deep state as they come and they’ll be settling their suits soon and hire McKinsey to tighten up the ship and live happily ever after.

On the issue of $MSFT and it tanking in the after hours, the numbers aren’t bad at all.

Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of +29%, +30% constant currency vs +30-31% CC prior guidance
Intelligent Cloud segment revs of $28.5 bln vs $28.4-28.7 bln prior guidance.
More Personal Computing segment revs of $15.9 bln vs $15.2-15.6 bln prior guidance.

The other important number was out of $AMD and it hit and the stock is +4%. We have $ARM, $LRCX and $META coming tomorrow.

The initial reaction to Microsoft is tankage in $AMZN and $META but I suspect it’ll moderate. On the whole, the market is once again sickly and spread thin across defensive sectors and banks. We are in a rut and in order to extricate ourselves we’ll need some speed.

I finished the session down 19bps but made it all back in the after hours due to my gigantic 17% $SQQQ positions crossed against a leveraged portfolio at 151% equity. I cobbled together various defensive stocks and war time stocks just in case the Middle East heats up with the escalatory action in Lebanon.

Ran out of 'chart' space.


jog on
duc

*I'll be back later with some gold stuff!

​

 

[ducati916]

Epic rug pull:

I looked at the market once I had a minute at work yesterday and thought, very boring for a Fed day. The intra-day volatility went to a 2 day volatility. We have seen this earlier in the year.



Mr FFF



I have masses of stuff, just no time.

Off to the day job third day in a row.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

LOL.

For me, a fantastic end of the week:



The Sahm rule triggered. I have been writing for a few weeks that it was getting close. Obviously Wall St. also watches the Sahm rule and has sh*t the bed.

AXP is down 7%!





What is the McKelvey Recession Indicator?

Take the current value of the 3-month unemployment rate average, subtract the 12-month low, and if the difference is 0.30 percentage point or more, then a recession has started.

Edward McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, created the indicator.

Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve and White House Economist, modified the indicator from 0.3 to 0.5.

Please consider The Sahm Rule: Step by Step written December 7, 2023 by Claudia Sahm.

I created the Sahm rule, and it’s on me to communicate it well. I try. If you have any questions, please add them to the comments.

Sahm claims to have invented the rule. However, credit should go to Edward McKelvey, at Goldman Sachs.

False Positives

To eliminate false positives, Sahm modified the original McKelvey rule from 0.3 to 0.5 but the result is a much larger lag time negating her claim of “real time”.

Sahm’s 0.5 trigger eliminates all but one false positive (none if you discount the one and only time the indicator was early, and then by six months).

A trigger of 0.3 produces five false positives, albeit only one since 1964. If October of 2023 is false, that makes six false positives.

Using a trigger of 0.4 results in only two false positives with an average lag of ~1 month.

My Calculations vs Sahm

• Sahm takes the headline unemployment rate to one decimal place and then calculates a two-digit indicator. That’s mathematical silliness and I doubt it is what McKelvey did.
• I calculate the unemployment rate to three decimal places and round to two. For example, the reported unemployment rate for July is 4.3 percent but calculated to three decimal places is 4.253 percent.
• For July, Sahm calculates 0.53 and I calculate 0.49

By all accounts, not even her work.

More on the Sahm rule: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/be-prepared-for-the-sahm-rule-hype/?utm_campaign=CG | Carson Investment Research Insights Newsletter&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9NIjsHTyXA960Jo4icxKFOb0axbkqbELCFmyOQEMuhT60LgK99Cfjf3mX_D3KKduh8Zb207g8WrKmue6pzw1dZ2u_HIA&_hsmi=318317585&utm_content=318317585&utm_source=hs_email

Anyway, Wall St. are now scared that the Fed have got it wrong again. As if they ever get it right: https://www.cato.org/blog/fed-dot-plot-forecasting-fiascos-june-2008-june-2021-0



We know from the banks that credit card late payments are also rising rapidly.



Mr FFF





From JC:

We've been here before. It's been 24 years since we've been here. But this is familiar territory. We saw historic underperformance from Technology stocks immediately after the sector reached the same levels it just reached last month. Should we expect the same? In other words, should Tech keep underperforming, paving the way for other sectors like Financials, Industrials, Energy and Healthcare to outperform for a while? Is that why the equally-weighted S&P500 just closed the month at new all-time highs? Because the largest weighting of the Market-cap weighted version is struggling to make any progress? Here's Technology relative to the S&P500 getting back to those former highs from early 2000:

​

The last time this happened, Tech underperformed for a long time. What does that mean for broader markets? During tonight's LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session we went over exactly this: What does Tech underperforming mean for the broader markets? What is happening globally? Can sector rotation keep this market elevated like we've seen? Or should we expect massive dispersion among sector returns? I think it's going to be a combination of both of those things. Here's what we're seeing and what we're doing about it: Click here for the replay, slide deck and trade ideas:

​

More serious bad news:

Credit spreads blowing out are ALWAYS really bad news. They tend to trigger liquidity issues in the Repo. market. When the Repo market has liquidity issues, stocks have issues: sell what you can to create liquidity.

It's probably lucky that this is a Friday, it will let the Fed ruminate over the w/e.

Do they come back with rate cuts? Does it even matter? It's not monetary policy that's the major issue, it's fiscal.

Oil News:

Friday, August 2nd, 2024

With the OPEC+ meeting failing to surprise the markets this week, the sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions after Israel’s strike in Lebanon and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran could have sent oil prices soar. Instead, the lack of an Iranian retaliation and continuous demand concerns, have dragged oil prices back down.

OPEC+ Sticks to Current Oil Policy. In line with expectations, the August 1 online meeting of OPEC+ ministers kept the oil group’s current policy unchanged and participating members reiterated their intent to start unwinding the third layer of voluntary production cuts from October 2024.

Chevron Moves Its Office to Texas. Following years of hostile regulatory treatment in its home state of California, US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is planning to move its corporate headquarters to Houston, with CEO Mike Wirth’s office expected to move by end-2024 and all other functions to shift by 2028.

Trafigura Seals Purchase of French Refinery. Competing with Vitol’s takeover of the Sardinian Saras refinery, global energy trader Trafigura has agreed to buy ExxonMobil’s (NYSE:XOM) 140,000 b/d Fos-sur-Mer refinery and adjacent terminals in Toulouse and Villette, in a consortium with Entara LLC.

No Chevron-Exxon Guyana Arbitration Until 2025. US oil major Chevron’s (NYSE:CVX) $53 billion takeover of Hess Energy (NYSE:HES) is facing lengthy delays as the arbitration panel that is set to hear ExxonMobil’s claim to Hess’ stale in the Stabroek block of Guyana will not happen before May 2025.

BP Eyes Rapid North Iraq Expansion. The government of Iraq signed a preliminary agreement with UK energy major BP (NYSE:BP) to develop four oil and gas fields in the northern Kirkuk region, 11 years after the two sides penned a letter of intent on these assets only to be fully disrupted by the Islamic State.

World’s Largest Copper Mine Might Strike. Workers at Chile’s Escondida mine operated by BHP (NYSE:BHP) have rejected the company’s offer for a new collective bargaining agreement, raising the risks of a potential strike at the world’s largest copper mine as BHP requested government mediation.

Senate to Bar Chinese Firms from Solar Subsidies. A bipartisan group of US senators introduced a bill that would block Chinese photovoltaic panel makers from claiming subsidies for their American factories under the Biden administration’s landmark 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

Vitol Takes Over Embattled Coal Trader. Global trading powerhouse Vitol agreed to acquire Hong Kong-based trading peer Noble Resources Trading for $209 million, expanding its coal exposure as Noble trades 35 million tonnes of thermal coal per year and is also active in metallurgical coke and coal.

Prolific Rains Help Panama Canal Recover. The administration of the Panama Canal expects to increase the number of daily transit slots to 36 from the current 34 in September as the early arrival of the rainy season has lifted water levels in Gatun Lake, overcoming the drought-ridden restrictions of 2023.

Colombia’s Ecopetrol Backs Out of US Shale Deal. US shale producer Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) has been informed by the Colombian state oil company Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) that it would not opt to buy a 30% stake in CrownRock for $3.6 billion, sapping hopes that Oxy’s $12 billion investment could be shared.

Albemarle Cuts Costs Again as Lithium Woes Continue. US lithium producer Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), the world’s largest lithium company by output, said it would slash costs across the company for the second time in 2024 already, however placating investors that everything but its dividend is to be curbed.

Methane Probe Finds EPA Underestimates Emissions. A new study released by a joint consortium of EDF, Google, and BAE Systems found that methane emissions over 12 US oil and gas basins were on average four times higher (7.5 mtpa per basin) than the Environmental Protection Agency estimates.

Excessive Heat Caps Europe’s Nuclear Generation. French nuclear power plants are forced to reduce generation, most notably the Golfech plant in southern France cutting output by 1 GW, as river temperatures in the Garonne and elsewhere started to exceed the limit of 28 C (82 Fahrenheit).

So the first week of August will go down ugly.

Weekly:




jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

From JC:

What do you call a blend of systematic and discretionary trading?

Systionary trading?

Discretionatic trading?

I think I’m leaning towards the latter.

Early in my trading career, I started up a small commodity futures hedge fund and prided myself on being fully systematic.

An algorithm derived the signals, I entered each trade manually, and I honored each signal religiously. To my credit, I stuck with it, no matter what. And I was rewarded for doing so, earning my investors 58% net returns on their money (net of my 2/20 performance fees) in just 18 months.

So, it was ingrained in me early on that systematic trading was good for me. It kept my emotions out of the decision-making process.

I’ve been chasing the systematic dragon in index options trading ever since.

The results have been mostly disappointing. I’ve had great runs, but nothing consistent that lasted longer than a 3-4 month period. And nearly every positive run was followed closely by a giveback of the majority of my hard-won gains (or worse), time and time again.

Many times, I’d be sitting in large open profits feeling I should take some off the table, but I’d hold in service of “being true to my system.” And true to form, if I’d followed my hunch, I would’ve been better off. “But I stuck to my system!” I’d foolishly tell myself.

So over several years, the only winner has been my broker, who’s happily collecting my churning commissions, earning the steady returns I’ve so desperately been trying to generate for myself. (You’d think they’d at least send me a fruit basket.)

There’s nothing wrong with only being a systematic trader.

Neither is there anything wrong with being focused solely on discretionary trading.

There are many successful traders in both categories.

But maybe what works best for me is a blend of the two disciplines?

In recent months, I’ve noticed that I’ve performed best when I mostly rely on my algorithm to get me into positions, but then use technical analysis and just plain ‘ol gut instinct to time my exit – escaping with a vast majority of my open profits before getting whipsawed in the reversal.

I’m writing all this as a reminder to myself to not be so damned dogmatic!

Neither the trading world nor the real world are so black and white. We need less EITHER/OR and more AND.

There’s room for both technical analysis AND fundamental analysis.

There’s room for sentiment analysis AND price analysis.

There’s room for Democratic thoughts AND Republican thoughts.

Houses can be homes to both cats AND dogs.

And my trading can be a mix of both systematic AND discretionary signals.

What are you being dogmatic about, and might you benefit from exploring ideas from the other camp?

Let me know, I’d love to hear about it.



The purchase of 1M BTC will be funded via a revaluation of the US 8000 tonnes of gold.





Yen:





UST market blowing up? Unusually, USD lower.

So HUGE move in the Yen, could very well drive a reversal in the Yen carry trade (sell Yen buy UST).

But:



Massive run to UST (the classic safety trade).

So it's not buy Yen sell UST (Carry Trade reversal).

So with MOVE higher, whoever is buying UST is warehousing them and not putting them into the Repo market (this always happens in a time of crisis) which means there is a liquidity event getting ready to happen.

Someone has blown up. They will be big. It's likely that they bet big on a rate cut at this meeting which did not occur. Look like the Fed will need to action another bail out over the w/e.

Last post showed credit spreads are moving. NEVER good.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

Massive run to UST (the classic safety trade).

hmmmm

since i don't buy UST

where to go for safety , very few of the open orders i currently have in the market are close to target

IMO the big 4 banks need to shed at least 20% to tempt me ditto for TLS ( and arguably BHP )

many of my usual safe-havens are already outside the zone when i even calculate a buy price

something to ponder over the weekend

( and my go-to health stocks have already been taken-over )

 

[ducati916]

hmmmm

since i don't buy UST

where to go for safety , very few of the open orders i currently have in the market are close to target

IMO the big 4 banks need to shed at least 20% to tempt me ditto for TLS ( and arguably BHP )

many of my usual safe-havens are already outside the zone when i even calculate a buy price

something to ponder over the weekend

( and my go-to health stocks have already been taken-over )

Gold. Or if you are a bit wild BTC.

For next week:





So these are the trades you can place on a (-2) market.




Rotation to defensives. Not sure how defensive commercial RE is, but...



jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

well if i had gold .. i would NOT tell anybody if i did , the gold miners ( that i like ) are outside of my target ranges

i guess i will have to wait for mining costs to worry share-holders

for a computer hobbyist , i have never been a bitcoin ( or crypto ) fan

i missed my entry target for BEAR early in the week ( just didn't get toppy enough )

consumer ( discretionary ) well most of those i am in very nice profit , the exception is motor vehicle dealers/retailers and i need them to drop more

just not much in my buy zone currently

however if the ASX were to drop another 1% ( as predicted by the SPI ) maybe something will be shaken out in the carnage ( say drop 5-7%

the stuff in energy i want to buy ( more of ) well i have already got some fairly sweet spots ( BPT under 55 cents , WHC under $1.50 NHC is still up around 100% for me ) i don't foresee the carnage to be that harsh .. WDS ? well they have to prove to me they have transformed after getting the BHP assets and not just got bloated

 

[peter2]

In recent months, I’ve noticed that I’ve performed best when I mostly rely on my algorithm to get me into positions, but then use technical analysis and just plain ‘ol gut instinct to time my exit – escaping with a vast majority of my open profits before getting whipsawed in the reversal.

I like this. It's something that's been in the back of my mind for most of my trading life and sneaks it's way to front of mind frequently.

I keep shoving it back. Delaying the irrepressible evolutionary advance.

 

[divs4ever]

Rotation to defensives. Not sure how defensive commercial RE is, but...

i have been buying commercial real estate mainly biasing toward RE anchoring on healthcare tenants and personal storage ( and some industrial sheds ) over the last 18 months

but yes RE is higher risk in an uncertain rate environment

 

[UMike]

From JC:

What do you call a blend of systematic and discretionary trading?

Systionary trading?

Discretionatic trading?

I think I’m leaning towards the latter.

Early in my trading career, I started up a small commodity futures hedge fund and prided myself on being fully systematic.

An algorithm derived the signals, I entered each trade manually, and I honored each signal religiously. To my credit, I stuck with it, no matter what. And I was rewarded for doing so, earning my investors 58% net returns on their money (net of my 2/20 performance fees) in just 18 months.

So, it was ingrained in me early on that systematic trading was good for me. It kept my emotions out of the decision-making process.

I’ve been chasing the systematic dragon in index options trading ever since.

The results have been mostly disappointing. I’ve had great runs, but nothing consistent that lasted longer than a 3-4 month period. And nearly every positive run was followed closely by a giveback of the majority of my hard-won gains (or worse), time and time again.

Many times, I’d be sitting in large open profits feeling I should take some off the table, but I’d hold in service of “being true to my system.” And true to form, if I’d followed my hunch, I would’ve been better off. “But I stuck to my system!” I’d foolishly tell myself.

So over several years, the only winner has been my broker, who’s happily collecting my churning commissions, earning the steady returns I’ve so desperately been trying to generate for myself. (You’d think they’d at least send me a fruit basket.)

There’s nothing wrong with only being a systematic trader.

Neither is there anything wrong with being focused solely on discretionary trading.

There are many successful traders in both categories.

But maybe what works best for me is a blend of the two disciplines?

In recent months, I’ve noticed that I’ve performed best when I mostly rely on my algorithm to get me into positions, but then use technical analysis and just plain ‘ol gut instinct to time my exit – escaping with a vast majority of my open profits before getting whipsawed in the reversal.

I’m writing all this as a reminder to myself to not be so damned dogmatic!

Neither the trading world nor the real world are so black and white. We need less EITHER/OR and more AND.

There’s room for both technical analysis AND fundamental analysis.

There’s room for sentiment analysis AND price analysis.

There’s room for Democratic thoughts AND Republican thoughts.

Houses can be homes to both cats AND dogs.

And my trading can be a mix of both systematic AND discretionary signals.

What are you being dogmatic about, and might you benefit from exploring ideas from the other camp?

Let me know, I’d love to hear about it.


jog on
duc

My biggest issue is being to greedy with Selling (and to a lesser degree Buying Prices)
Sold a lot in my personal the last few days but upped my selling price (of banks) in the super only to miss the top.

Very much a lack of disicple

 

[ducati916]

History lesson:



So lots of numbers and events to ponder.

Superficially, the message seems to be: stocks move higher over time regardless of what happens.

Fine, but you actually need to look at events when the market has gone down in relation to the recovery and your life span. There have been some pretty major bad times that took lengthy periods to resolve.

Second: we have not had this 'type' of crisis in 100yrs, ie., sovereign debt crisis.

Markets sold off sharply on Thursday and Friday due to a “growth scare”, yet no investor alive has seen a US slowdown or recession with 122% US debt/GDP, 7% US deficit/GDP (at full employment), and -80% US Net International Investment Position/GDP.

That all of this is occurring in the context of $13T in foreign USD-denominated debt and a Eurodollar system that is estimated in the tens of trillions of dollars (and serves effectively as a further USD “short” position) means that the only thing keeping western governments from a “USD up, rates up, stocks down, economies down, USD up, rates up, stocks down, economies down” debt spiral was the very inflation that is now fading (for now.)

If nominal GDP growth just gets too close to rates, let alone below rates, said debt spiral will likely occur. In our view, this makes it highly likely that more USD liquidity is coming, and soon. What is unclear is how much more pain lies between here and there…but the stakes suggest it cannot be too long. In our view, the message of gold sitting near $2,500 and BTC at $63,000 despite the fastest Fed rate hikes in 40 years is “Gold and BTC know what’s coming and know they will not have to wait too long for it to arrive.”

The last time sovereign debt was so high that it caused defaults was post WWI, which eventually resulted in the Great Depression. Post WWII, yield curve control was implemented to avoid the defaults. We will see the same again. That means high inflation.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So Mr FFF



I suppose two things:

1. The economy is not strong.
2. There well be no rally on rate cuts, au contraire, the market may continue lower.

Why?



This 'bubble' is not just a stock bubble, it is an 'everything' bubble (stocks, bonds, RE).



And yet...as pointed out: Debt/GDP is still RISING.

The US is in fiscal dominance.

This market has been so highly manipulated as compared with the 1999 market:



That when 'they' (the Fed) lose control, there is no getting it back.

So of course the question is: are we there yet?

Unemployment data is one of if not the most lagging of economic data. Once it triggers, the recession already started and is well underway. A recession will blow deficits out to 12%-16% of GDP in an already grossly bloated debt/GDP.

It is either Great Depression II or crazy levels of inflation. It will be the latter. Not all sectors love inflation. With a stagflation, even those sectors that possibly had pricing power will see falloff in demand as unemployment ratchets higher.

PE ratios compress.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

I like this. It's something that's been in the back of my mind for most of my trading life and sneaks it's way to front of mind frequently.

I keep shoving it back. Delaying the irrepressible evolutionary advance.

While i have been out of trading for a year and a half, i remember well the feeling:
"I stick to the systems so i am doing the right thing", but do i fool myself?
As i was desperately waiting for the end of week system run then telling me to sell the stocks which had been burning in my pockets since Tuesday, with inner voice telling me..sell sell day...and night
One of the key advantage i see with systems trading is the removal of my own flawed sentiments so , as i will slowly reenter the systems trading, i will try to add a daily exit opportunity, still systemic, onto my weekly systems
Even something as simple as an exit stop loss based on DD from previous high.
We should know if this works in the next few months

 

[qldfrog]

While i have been out of trading for a year and a half, i remember well the feeling:
"I stick to the systems so i am doing the right thing", but do i fool myself?
As i was desperately waiting for the end of week system run then telling me to sell the stocks which had been burning in my pockets since Tuesday, with inner voice telling me..sell sell day...and night
One of the key advantage i see with systems trading is the removal of my own flawed sentiments so , as i will slowly reenter the systems trading, i will try to add a daily exit opportunity, still systemic, onto my weekly systems
Even something as simple as an exit stop loss based on DD from previous high.
We should know if this works in the next few months

Just want to add that if i were doing systemic on a daily base, i would probably not feel that urge..but a whole week system with buy sell on mondays is a very long time when a crash is on a Monday arvo or Tuesday's NY week open day

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just want to add that if i were doing systemic on a daily base, i would probably not feel that urge..but a whole week system with buy sell on mondays is a very long time when a crash is on a Monday arvo or Tuesday's NY week open day

Don't worry @qldfrog . As a purely discretionary trader I have more than a fair share of regrets as well. Keep doing what you are comfortable with and change as you wish. Ultimately we answer to ourselves. All the best with your systems.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

OK

just to make you all feel better about yourselves

in over 1200 transactions on Commsec ( and well over 100 on Bell Direct )

i have made intentional trade ( buy a stock , and sell down at a predetermined time trying to crystallize a profit )
the ETF was QFN and the duration was about 7 weeks

the original idea was to park the money on the ASX for a short period of time ( about 8 weeks ) and hopefully make a profit on the way

now to befuddle most of you an ETF was chosen because the market-makers do their best to keep the price at NTA ( not investor sentiment )

QFN was chosen A. because of the sector it covered , B it was at the time cheap enough for the few thousand bucks to buy a decent number and C , it was going to go ex-div. in the desired period .

so i added extra cash to the desired 'parking cash ' bought in and quickly signed up to the DRP and let the div. cycle do it's magic

so by the time it came to retrieve the ( needed ) i sold the required units ( at a small profit ) but kept the extra cash in the market plus the DRP shares for roughly another 10 years ( DRPing away ) boosted nicely by the initial DRP payout

now maybe there is an edge some novice can use ( plenty of ETFs to choose from now )

cheers

normally i just buy stuff and let fate do it's thing ( and try to make sensible decisions on the way )

 

[ducati916]

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Ugly open:



Opening below Friday's lows.

BTC



Hmmm.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Buffett on banks:



jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

Buffett on banks:



jog on
duc

paradoxically today , i seriously considered buying back into ANZ , a couple of quick calculations and i moved on ( not enough reward in them , currently )

i still hold MQG , KSL , ABA , MYS ( and a trivial amount of WBC ) ( now SUN has offloaded the banking arm i am treating it as an insurer)

please remember i do NOT expect plain sailing ahead ( especially in the banks )