AUD/USD

[PinguPingu]

Smashed the yen crosses and the rest of Asia as well.

NAB chucked a bit of a fit.

 

[notting]

Beat me to it, that's all i can find, news come out a while ago though, has taken a while to react to it, can't see any other reason for these moves though

The inflation headline seemed high yet in the sober details it was also seen to be negligible.

 

[Whiskers]

An anxious moment back there... almost thought I missed it.

But, thinking it's a minor EW 4 correction before the final push up to my larger "4?" of C2 correction.

Happy to sit on sideline for a bit longer to see how my chart-o-nomics is working out.

 

[Whiskers]

So far so good!

Pushing to the upside of all indicators.

EW count (my second string confirmation) is still looking ok.

 

[notting]

Apparently the AUD is not supported by fundamental realities.( According to RBA)
Guess that means the market was wrong.
I don't think so, despite the fact I was very short on it.
What moves it is whether tapering is on or off and what the RBA has done with interest rates.
Talk is cheap.
I wonder if the Euro and US traders who are not at their desks will swallow that like the ones trading now have.
Look out below when tapering starts however.

 

[Whiskers]

Apparently the AUD is not supported by fundamental realities.( According to RBA)

What moves it is whether tapering is on or off and what the RBA has done with interest rates.
Talk is cheap.

He's trying the Bernanke trick, playing on expectations... before they (RBA) run out of cutting capacity.

If they don't cut in Nov, as it's looking increasingly like they won't, we'll likely see that new high over Dec/Jan killing off the mining 'boom' sooner and contributing to lower household earnings, higher unemployment, further weakening of consumer confidence and probably a bit of a kneejerk back in business confidence... and they'll be forced act in Feb.

Call me cynical, but it seems to me that they are sometimes more concerned with, and probably over estimate the impact of, increasing out export prices (via rate cuts) thus causing imported inflation in China and flowing over to the US, thus causing them more problems.

 

[havaiana]

I read the FOMC changes this morning (or lack thereof) to indicate that taper was still on the table for December or so. I would have expected bigger falls in stocks and bigger gains in USD than occurred. AUD has already made back the FOMC drop and is looking like it might go back the other way.

Looks like we could be in for a bullish session, if we make it back above 9500 and it can stay there, there will be a heap of shorts running for cover above 9515.

 

[havaiana]

... there will be a heap of shorts running for cover above 9515.

Plan for the day

Usually when you have big news like a FOMC there are always plenty of stops above/below where it moved from, but yesterday there was barely any pop at all, looks like there was plenty of selling to soak it all up at and above the previous days highs. We are currently sitting at the bottom end of yesterdays range.

I will try to play the short side this morning looking for a break of yesterdays lows before PPI and China PMI. Of course it could just flop around in the middle of the range until the announcements this arvo in which case I'll just be scratching.

I'm not big enough to play announcements yet so will sit aside during them and most likely just start to fade whichever way it goes after it looks like momentum is wearing off unless one of the numbers is a big surprise.

My predicted day looks like a break of lows pre news, no big surprise in news, break of highs, fall back within range before the europeans switch on. Now we'll see how badly I can get it wrong!

 

[havaiana]

Wow, that's a big number for AUD PPI, biggest number in a long time. Up move being sold into as we speak though. Sitting on hands until news from China now

 

[havaiana]

China number obviously leaked 5 mins before as usual, move already in progress

 

[CanOz]

China number obviously leaked 5 mins before as usual, move already in progress

lol...I wonder if the markets were always this corrupt?

If you've got deep enough pockets, the law just doesn't apply anymore does it?

 

[ROE]

My moto when money is involved assume people don't act in your interest but their so factor in the risk
When parting your money with any type of investment....

 

[CanOz]

Currently watching this AUD_GBP spread at the moment. Its coming into a strong seasonal period but its needs to continue here...

 

[notting]

Ausi has been killing the Euro whilst having a good time on the mattress at 61.8 down on the US.
That's usually a good lead!
Not short for the moment, long might be smart short term, they are not going to taper in December unless there is an employment miracle.
Otherwise everything said till now will be turned upside down and the Fed has not been inconsistent yet!
Strong CPI out of Chinese Republic of Sociopaths will help too.
So long seems like a good bet for the minute.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Short on AUD after jobs data... looking for this lower high to compete with a move to .9370 with last short term uptrend being broken.

Also short G$ looking for a new lower high to start but that one's not playing ball atm.

Watching Gold for continuation of the short term down trend to continue.. have a Sell stop in.

 

[notting]

You could buy Euro cause market priced in ECB rate lowering tonight which is highly unlikely.

 

[Whiskers]

That might help explain why I'm thinking AUD is trying to go higher despite the RBA effort to talk it down and Aus employment nos.

 

[notting]

Told u ECB wouldn't cut
At least it retraced enough to get out alive.
Gold has weakened and so have commodities on the basis of stronger US GDP.
However it seems the Germans are so pissed off about the spying and that there is no hesitation to cut now and currency war is becoming real! It almost looks a little retaliatory against the recent surprise no taper.
I've been focused so much on China I have missed the tensions between Euro and US.
This might end up being good for gold as tapering could be put off again due to US$ strength vs EUR.
How much of US recent good data was being helped by lower $ vs Euro this is the question.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Short on AUD after jobs data... looking for this lower high to compete with a move to .9370 with last short term uptrend being broken.

Also short G$ looking for a new lower high to start but that one's not playing ball atm.

Watching Gold for continuation of the short term down trend to continue.. have a Sell stop in.

AUD$ GBP$ trades all going well now thanks to the news... Gold sell stop order filled going well...

may look to trim G$ on Monday open. see how Gold acts at the next low..

USDJPY also looking like a good long... want to see it stay above 98.20 thinking of putting in a limit buy there.

wondering if the USD has follow through on this move.

 

[Whiskers]

That might help explain why I'm thinking AUD is trying to go higher despite the RBA effort to talk it down and Aus employment nos.

Damned hard to get me confidence back after not trading forex for a while... and with the RBA trying to talk down the AUD and manipulate macro economic outcomes such as his concern with housing over heating as an excuse for not focusing on his job, monetary policy, lowering the cash rate more, sooner.

But, there are some promising signs for my count, or at least that it may have a bit of strength in her yet, before turning significantly lower.

On the daily there was a Piercing Line bullish turn sign, almost an Engulfing Bullish, followed by a Harami confirming change of trend, then a proper Engulfing Bullish. On the weekly a decent looking Hammer seems to confirm, so far...