AUD/USD

[havaiana]

Boom! RBA Stevens says AUD too high and intervention has been and will be used in the right circumstances. Now at 2 month lows

Been some serious action developing in the markets these past 2 days

 

[CanOz]

Boom! RBA Stevens says AUD too high and intervention has been and will be used in the right circumstances

Finally joining the manipulation club....

 

[havaiana]

Finally joining the manipulation club....

I think for the RBA though, the threat will be more useful than the action itself. kudos to him for taking advantage of the fragile position it was in before his comments.

That's a big and quick retrace, starting to look like a good fade now that all the stops are gone. Would love to see it break 9250 first

 

[CanOz]

I think for the RBA though, the threat will be more useful than the action itself. kudos to him for taking advantage of the fragile position it was in before his comments.

That's a big and quick retrace, starting to look like a good fade now that all the stops are gone. Would love to see it break 9250 first

Sure is one way to mess with my AUDUSD/JPYUSD spread...not looking as tempting as it was before...

 

[skc]

Sure is one way to mess with my AUDUSD/JPYUSD spread...not looking as tempting as it was before...

Isn't that just a directional AUD/JPY trade?

 

[CanOz]

Isn't that just a directional AUD/JPY trade?

You tell me....The spread is on the bottom.

The spread is the difference between the AUD.USD/JPY.USD price. The AUD.JPY is the difference between the AUD and the JPY.

Does that make it four legged spread?

 

[havaiana]

You tell me....The spread is on the bottom.

The spread is the difference between the AUD.USD/JPY.USD price. The AUD.JPY is the difference between the AUD and the JPY.

Does that make it four legged spread?

AUD/JPY is the spread of AUD/USD and USD/JPY, maybe the difference is something to do with the JPY/USD being reversed?

I think your spread may by a cross of AUDandJPY/USD. So you are effectively buying USD or selling USD against both AUD and JPY (not a bad way to make bets on Asia/USD).

AUD selling is still relentless at the moment, against USD and EUR. (edit: as soon as i post about something it ends)

 

[Boggo]

Follow up from this...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=14459&page=2&p=802741&viewfull=1#post802741

Decision time or could we be on the way to sub 90 ??

(click to expand)

 

[blue sky]

http://clip2net.com/s/6ezYIU
Just testing here, sorry if I'm barging in. I think the AUD has further to fall in the short term.
Tim

 

[Whiskers]

Follow up from this...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=14459&page=2&p=802741&viewfull=1#post802741

Decision time or could we be on the way to sub 90 ??

(click to expand)

I have two possible larger counts depending on which configuration/combination works out, one a bit different to you, but they both now point to going lower, to the high 80's.

For me, the last 'talk down' by the RBA seems to have killed off any bullish prospects of revisiting highs in the near term.

 

[blue sky]

Tim

 

[blue sky]

I'm just getting use to this chart system and posting but it looks like I'm getting there. I think the AUDUSD will head up to about the 0.9260-80 area where I see resistance as pointed out on the chart back around the 11th to the 14th of November. Then......we'll see what happens, but looking at the last chart I see the price on the higher timeframe dropping
Tim

 

[havaiana]

Hi blue sky

Just in regards to the statement on your chart "price tends to fall much easier faster than it rises", this is not correct.

This is may be true with stocks/commodities etc, but not with currencies. With currencies one currency is always falling and the other always rising. For example, if they decided to list AUD/USD as USD/AUD it would not make USD weaken easier and faster, it would just move in reverse.

Just as another example, with USD/JPY, the futures contract trades pip for pip with the spot contract, but is actually JPY/USD. JPY doesn't weaken easier or faster on the futures contract and and USD doesn't weaken easier or faster on the spot price, they both move exactly tick for tick (but in reverse).

There is fear when people are in a short position as well as in a long position.

 

[blue sky]

Hi blue sky

Just in regards to the statement on your chart "price tends to fall much easier faster than it rises", this is not correct.

This is may be true with stocks/commodities etc, but not with currencies. With currencies one currency is always falling and the other always rising. For example, if they decided to list AUD/USD as USD/AUD it would not make USD weaken easier and faster, it would just move in reverse.

Just as another example, with USD/JPY, the futures contract trades pip for pip with the spot contract, but is actually JPY/USD. JPY doesn't weaken easier or faster on the futures contract and and USD doesn't weaken easier or faster on the spot price, they both move exactly tick for tick (but in reverse).

There is fear when people are in a short position as well as in a long position.

Alright, I thought about replying to this in a dozen different ways. But I'll just say I should have added "In my opinion" price tends to fall faster than it rises. 13 years of trading has probably scrambled my grey matter a bit and I forget to physically type exactly what I think
Tim

 

[havaiana]

AUD currently being torn a new one, talk is some big hedge funds have been hitting it hard since euro open

30 min chart, will be 10 bars straight without a high broken



Staying awake to do some bottom picking (for a smallish retrace). When/if we break 9100 and get any decent bounce will look to buy the next new lows

 

[notting]

Consider doing it against the Euro.
It has less reasons for strength than the US and has hit the aud even harder.

 

[havaiana]

Consider doing it against the Euro.
It has less reasons for strength than the US and has hit the aud even harder.

I agree, unfortunately I'm trading the futures, so don't have the EUR/AUD cross. If I was trading through a spot account would definitely be doing it against euro instead, would only be looking at either for a short term bounce though. I reckon there is too much momentum to be fishing for a bottom this week

 

[havaiana]

...When/if we break 9100 and get any decent bounce will look to buy the next new lows

Stayed up for nothing, the setup happened but tried to milk it too much and missed my order by a tick.

 

[havaiana]

Gee US thanksgiving has made the morning markets thin. Never seen the AUD like this at this time except seconds before a news announcement, there were times a 20 lot could have moved the market 10-15 ticks

Will look to get my fade on if we break the lows at 9065

 

[havaiana]

Think I'm finally developing an understanding of market context.

Usually I'd go into today thinking:
No major news today, it's a Friday, US off for the rest of the week. Low volumes, thin markets, no one will be able to take any decent position cause there will be no exit if it goes wrong (and obviously no big longer term players because no volume). Will be a small range, get active and fade everything that moves 5 ticks or more.

Instead this morning I was thinking, market expects small range today (for above reasons). What is some smart ass going to step up and do to take advantage of it.

Here is the 30 tick move and then 30 tick retrace at the open of the futures (30 ticks is pretty big for AUD during this time, even for a high volume day)