AUD/USD

[havaiana]

I've been torn a new one on AUD this morning

Bought at green, then news that US shutdown/debt limit talks are finished for the day hits the wires. Short at reds, then comes news that talks are back on and a deal could be announced within hours. purples are exits/stopouts. I'm a fly's d*ck away from my daily stop after 3 trades

 

[CanOz]

Struth, I've not even got out of bed yet...!

 

[havaiana]

Struth, I've not even got out of bed yet...!

I hope it's been worth you while! Come trade AUD, I will call my trades for you to take the other side of

 

[CanOz]

I hope it's been worth you while! Come trade AUD, I will call my trades for you to take the other side of

lol...Good idea, i can double up and split the profits with you...just tell me what to do!

 

[AussieMatt]

Nothing much happening with the AUDUSD, a touch entry at 95 would have been ok. but really we are just chopping sideways, I still like the location for a double top but there needs to be some clear direction before it becomes interesting again.

 

[CanOz]

I sort of feel the same way about everything at the moment Matt .

 

[AussieMatt]

I know what you mean, I have taken very few fx trades over the past month, unless something really jumps out at me I will continue to sit on my hands.

 

[havaiana]

Nothing much happening with the AUDUSD....

That depends how you look at it, in a 240 min bar the market has only had a range of about 40 pips today. Inside that bar or 2 though, it has had a range of about 200 pips as it has moved around 20-40 pips about 7 times.

 

[havaiana]

... I'm a fly's d*ck away from my daily stop after 3 trades

If we break 9550, gonna be back from the brink into the green. Go go go

Watch this thing tank to 95 again now

 

[Whiskers]

Just catching up on this after a while doing other things... working on bigger picture first, thinking it will go close to .98 before any significant correction back to the low .90's. based on tentative trends and an apparent inverted H&S.

 

[Whiskers]

Humm... above .97, now what's a good entry point for a nice ride down a few cents?

Will it be today, tomorrow...

 

[kid hustlr]

Hav + others anyone have a short term view on this? got CPI in 10 minutes which will most likely throw it around but I think it may be looking slightly toppy here?

 

[havaiana]

Hav + others anyone have a short term view on this? got CPI in 10 minutes which will most likely throw it around but I think it may be looking slightly toppy here?

I agree and now that CPI has moved it up feels too late for me to go long. Right now looking to short new highs, or short a retracement if we have a lower high with a decent move down. If I luck into a good fill on a turn will hold, if not will just look to scratch/small profit, rinse and repeat.

It will need to grind down a fair bit lower (maybe around 50% retracement level of this CPI move up, only if it has been a grind down though) before i would think about going long again

 

[notting]

AU weakness against the EURO was giving me confidence that this is very short term strength against the USD due to euphoria that the Fed may not taper.
Yet that Vs EURO just got shot out of the sky with inflation a little stronger.
It's in the hands of the Fed.

 

[havaiana]

I just missed that short at the break of new highs was trying to squeeze an extra couple of ticks out of it. Going to try to short on a retrace

AU weakness against the EURO was giving me confidence that this is very short term strength against the USD due to euphoria that the Fed may not taper.
Yet that Vs EURO just got shot out of the sky with inflation a little stronger.
It's in the hands of the Fed.

Let me just put in a disclaimer on this post that all my trades are open and closed in a day, so fundamentals are not my strength. If this sounds like BS I'm happy to be told so and why so by anyone so I can educate myself.

As much as I just want to short now and hold, I really get the feeling that this strength is people building a position in anticipation of the end of the interest rate cutting cycle in AUD and rates remaining lower in the US and EUR. Even though there will probably be another cut I still think this could be people building a position early in anticipation of a longer term yield play. For me taper doesn't explain the EUR/AUD weakness since the start of October

 

[kid hustlr]

dead in the water now

 

[havaiana]

dead in the water now

I missed it, got a fill on the lower high to the tick and ended up scratching for a couple of ticks. ?I reckon it will go through to 640 at least now. If there is no one buying into the stops down there could go down a long way further

 

[havaiana]

jeez, glad i'm not on the other side of this, seems to be picking up momentum

 

[notting]

China banks just announced massive increase in bad debts.

Black swan, black swan.

And of course there is this little issue.



Why do all these economists say 'China needs to grow at 7% in order to keep public stability,"
You'd think breathing would be important too.

 

[havaiana]

China banks just announced massive increase in bad debts.
...

Beat me to it, that's all i can find, news come out a while ago though, has taken a while to react to it, can't see any other reason for these moves though