AUD/USD

[danc]

15 min chart long 9148

minus 7

 

[havaiana]

Some heavy selling going on in AUD these last 24 hours. I reckon statement was bullish at best (Compared to expectations), as expected at worst and they've used it to sell into the liquidity

I like a buy after a spike under 9050, if it gets there

I was up for most of US sessions last night and bids seemed very light though

 

[havaiana]

EUR/AUD at an interesting spot too, approaching the 50% level of the last few weeks. If it's a short from here would want to start to turn pretty soon

 

[havaiana]

Some heavy selling going on in AUD these last 24 hours. I reckon statement was bullish at best (Compared to expectations), as expected at worst and they've used it to sell into the liquidity

I like a buy after a spike under 9050, if it gets there

I was up for most of US sessions last night and bids seemed very light though

Still looking very heavy, I'm not in yet, going to have a little nibble when it breaks the 9035 low though and see how it goes, targeting around 9068, or puking it quick

EDIT didn't have the balls looking too scary at the moment

 

[havaiana]

looking to get long now around 9030 and if that works out will start building a short above 9060

 

[havaiana]

that didn't go to well, not going to build a long now that we approaching 9000, don't want to risk being caught in a break below

 

[danc]

ASUD 15 min long 9001 ..very short term view

 

[notting]

I'd better report this because I can't find the media covering the phenomena.

Unexpected trade deficit put's a halt the rise in the AUD. The AUD was rising with the RBA sounding less dovish. However the 'unexpected trade deficit' has traders betting that another rate cut may be back on the cards.

This is the way it will go and should be accelerated when the tapering starts in Sept.

 

[havaiana]

aud 1 min, kid hustlr, this is one of the ones i spoke about...

 

[kid hustlr]

ta matey,

completely agree with the 'trendline is smoothing' or cupping so to speak, each push down gets weaker and weaker.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

A$ definitely still in a new up trend for me... waiting on it to make a decent entry to re buy. would like to see price keep support at .9320 to reinforce this.

 

[havaiana]

Weird opening this morning, EUR and AUD usually gap the same way, this morning gaps

USD/JPY down
AUD/USD down
EUR/USD up

Will be interesting to see if this continues for the rest of the week.

Thoughts anyone? Buy EUR/USD when bullish, sell AUD/USD when bearish? or fade the EUR/AUD gap?

 

[AussieMatt]

I will be watching price at 95.

 

[prawn_86]

I will be watching price at 95.

Yes we need a convincing break of 0.95 to see any considerable push higher.

 

[havaiana]

There's market talk of an option barrier at 95 so will see some decent selling in front of it and then maybe some decent stops being triggered if it goes through.

For tonight I'm looking to get long round .945 and sell after 9485 pops, will look to exit for loss if it breaks .945 convincingly and struggles to get back above it

 

[havaiana]

Of course it takes off before I get a fill. That has been the story of my month so far

Might look at trying to get in on a retracement to .9560-5 if itgets there and it looks like it's struggling to make any ground further down

 

[havaiana]

Weird opening this morning, EUR and AUD usually gap the same way, this morning gaps

USD/JPY down
AUD/USD down
EUR/USD up

Will be interesting to see if this continues for the rest of the week.

Thoughts anyone? Buy EUR/USD when bullish, sell AUD/USD when bearish? or fade the EUR/AUD gap?

Also, looks like the bold was the right play.

 

[havaiana]

There's market talk of an option barrier at 95 so will see some decent selling in front of it and then maybe some decent stops being triggered if it goes through.

For tonight I'm looking to get long round .945 and sell after 9485 pops, will look to exit for loss if it breaks .945 convincingly and struggles to get back above it

The stops above 95 last night were taken out with the stops through 9485 (maybe the option expired?), no defence at all it seems. Only got to about 9507-8 even though more than 1,500 contracts were traded in the futures through the break of 95 and retracement back down was decent. It was a lot of buying for someone to absorb considering it was a US holiday and thinner markets.

As it stands now I will have a selling bias today. Chart is of the futures.

I am nervous that the shutdown/debt limit talks seem to have made some progress though and that we might get to the highs at 529. Will probably try to work in a short position if we take out the US highs, or on a retracement after a decent impulse down (looking strong right now as we approach highs again, second guessing...).



edit, strike that selling bias, looks like an agreement is close in the US, could be a fat tail day

 

[prawn_86]

Little pop above 0.95 on the back of the RBA statement. Not many cuts to come for a while it seems.

Will be interesting to see if it can hold 95 now or if it will slip below, looking decent on the hourly chart

 

[havaiana]

I agree it's looking decent, i will buy if it gets back down to 9500