ARU - Arafura Rare Earths

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Progress with Thyssen-Krupp: formalising offtake agreement
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01282090

30c looks like support at last. I'm back on.

 

[Julia1979]

lol guys they have blown $250M to get where they are now god only knows where that money went

TH, next capital raising to come. Never thought ARU would go back to the teen-level, now even single digits look possible. I wondered if there was problems with the BFS due to rapidly falling REO prices. Apart from the BFS there are still - after all these years - so many potential delay issues like the approvals in Whyalla.
When I first bought ARU shares in 2005 we discussed 2010 as a realistic date of production. Now we are talking about 2015.
Little people could foresee the banking and credit crisis that is not even close to be solved. But it seems to me that the people at ARU are continuously ignoring who financed them. The way they treat shareholders is really quite a shame IMO.
I might buy some more ARU in the low teens but not much. Just shocking to see how such a promising stock with highest expectations turns into a such a nightmare.
regards
Julia

 

[pixel]

30c looks like support at last. I'm back on.

needless to say that I got off as soon as 30c failed to hold.
... and while it's so clearly resumed the downtrend on various fronts and counts, it's remaining off my watchlist.

 

[Kremmen]

As we continue to play the "how low can it go" game, the Chinese have poured another $9.9M in at 22c. It's starting to look like there's some support at 20-21c now.

 

[beatthemarket]

The demo plant still needs to be run (costing 6M), and the BFS finished (~60M) vs current cash of ~28M...

9.9 just raised.. wonder is that's enough?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Looks like it might pop. Plenty of room overhead, up to 29c.

 

[Crows]

At 18c now... Wonder where its headed..

 

[pixel]

At 18c now... Wonder where its headed..

miniscule volume so far; but if someone injects $Millions at 22c a pop, I reckon there's more upside than risk of failure. I bought some yesterday.

Speccie rules: stop at 17c, first target 23c

 

[pixel]

That was a looooong time ago.
but they're still alive. Just
Another amazing rally - and Trading Halt heading into another cap raising.

 

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While all eyes are on Lithium, as a key facilitator of cleaner energy, other essential elements have been pushed into the background. Notably Neodymium and Praseodymium.
If recent reports, tabled around the AGM, are any lead, Arafura looks set to change that. Currently trading in a narrow band between 10 and 11.5c, there appears to be some patient accumulation going on. Given the strong support at 10c, I reckon disciplined stop-loss can limit the downside risk, while a break above 11.5c resistance should result in some profitable upside.
DYOR and FYOP. I am doing just that

 

[pixel]

Slowly but surely, the Market reacts and buys the news.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01939257
If the immediate resistance at 12c is taken out, I see 14c as the next hurdle.

Price and Volume moving up together, confirming MACD Bullish Divergence.
I hold, leaning towards accumulation. 10.5c support must hold - or else.

 

[greggles]

A revivial in interest in Arafura Resources this week.

Following the release of the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the Nolans Project on 7 February 2019, ARU management has escalated its engagement with potential offtake and financing partners. Arafura has signed two non-binding offtake MoUs for its three rare earth products to date, which it aims to convert to contracts in the coming months.

If good news comes through in the near future, we could see a further move north as the Nolans Project continues to firm up.

ARU up 9.43% to 5.8c so far today on volume of 1.5 million shares.

 

[Nicks]

Company is about to start building for production at the perfect time.

Product is increasing in demand for technology for the future.

Govt policy all over the world is favourable to much higher demand for the product.

Market cap 50M.

Annual revenue at least 500M.

NPV between 80M and 1.9B! Where in this range depends on demand.... See above.

WES wants in on this stuff as they know the potential. This is a shrewd company who know where to invest (and its not supermarkets any more!).

Significant Govt support expected as it creates long term jobs in the area.

Strategically positioned close enough to Alice Springs for daily commute, just off Stuart highway. Train and gas there too.

Gov and Environmental approvals all done. Tick.

Mine life 23 yrs plus.

Plenty of immediate cash with no significant expenses coming or planned.

After a few years preparing 2019 is the year it comes together and the shares are cheap. Whats not to like. It would be a different sell if the share price was already reflecting all the above but it isn't. Market and long term holders have gotten tired of ARU. This is when you strike. Opportunities like this are hard to find. Its the perfect nexus of things aligning. I'm loading up!

Shares therefore could realistically be worth 10x current market cap by this time next year, i.e 70c+

 

[barney]

Market and long term holders have gotten tired of ARU. This is when you strike.

Agree …..

Haven't looked close at this one but the Chart is taking shape as well.

Cap Raise in the process which will I assume will be "big" news.

SP normally suffer a bit after a major cap raise, but this will be one to watch over the next few months.

 

[barney]

SP normally suffer a bit after a major cap raise, but this will be one to watch over the next few months.

Raising $3 million at 0.05 cents ….. Not exactly inspiring for current holders.

 

[Smurf1976]

Price has been volatile but today reached the highest level since November 2018 before falling back significantly. High of 7.6c and close at 6.2c. A week ago it was at 5.1c so quite volatile.

Also current market depth has more than twice as many buyers than sellers so seems to be some interest there.

 

[Smurf1976]

Up 22.86% today to a close of 8.6c

This is a volatile stock though - my comment is an observation and drawing it to the attention of others but is not a recommendation as such.

 

[barney]

Up 22.86% today to a close of 8.6c

This is a volatile stock though - my comment is an observation and drawing it to the attention of others but is not a recommendation as such.

Yeah … ARU got belted for a month after the 5 cent cap raise and has gone ballistic since. Big Volume last couple of days too.

Hindsight tells us it was likely just the deeper pockets extracting Shares from the "weaker" hands but that is hard to ascertain at the right hand edge of the chart of course.

 

[greggles]

She's up again today, reaching an intraday high of 11.5c on volume of more than 23 million shares, even more than yesterday.

The breakout is clear enough. The mystery is why did it start moving yesterday when there has been no news of note since 15 May? And no speeding ticket from the ASX either.

It might have something to do with this comment from the announcement dated 7 May:

Mick Billing, Executive Chairman, commented: “More very good XRF tungsten results along with exciting copper readings from the Samarkand deposit at Bonya.”

“The proposed Molyhil processing facility is designed to extract copper as well as tungsten and molybdenum so any primary copper at Bonya can be extracted at minimal additional cost.”

“We look forward to the full laboratory assays from this drill program, along with results from the costean sampling from Marrakech and Tashkent, all expected during May.”

Interesting.

 

[Nicks]

It's all about Rare Earths people....

- China's monopoly,
- Strategic risk to USA, Japan, EU, and the rest of the world
- China's domestic demand increasing consuming all their supplies
- Technology advancements and trends needing forecasted multiple increases of rare earths
- Australia's low sovereign and geopolitical risk
- ARU being right at the point of commissioning having completed all DFS and Govt approvals
- Favourable Aus Gov
- Forecasted supply shortages
- China a risk of rare earth supply
- Increasing rare earth prices
- Basically a perfect storm!

Still cheap and ready to go given the above.