Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ARU - Arafura Rare Earths

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My pick for February stock tipping. At the moment things are looking negative for ARU with the share price dropping below the recent placement price. I am hoping the funds from the placement will give the share price a boost, but a high risk at this point.

Iggy
 
My pick for March stock tipping competition. After a slide down over several months, ARU has had a bit of a rebound over February, up over 10%, but still a way to go to return to previous value, though the SPP would have diluted share value.

Iggy
 
I really want to buy into the critical minerals / rare earth story, but they all seem to be going south. But, looking at a few of the charts they seem to be pausing. I wonder if it's a turn around story.

Screenshot 2024-03-14 at 4.29.23 am.png



Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will detail the funding on Thursday. The government held a cabinet meeting on Wednesday in Darwin, where Labor signed off on a $4 billion package for Indigenous housing and $1 billion for eduction – a sign the government sees the Northern Territory as politically vital ahead of the next election.

Arafura’s funding – which includes about $495 million in loans from the Critical Minerals Facility, $200 million from the revamped Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, and up to $115 million in federal export financing – will underpin Australia’s second rare earths refinery after federal taxpayers loaned $1.25 billion to Iluka for a facility at Eneabba in Western Australia.

Arafura, which is listed on the ASX with a market value of $355 million, has agreements to supply rare earths to South Korean automaker Hyundai, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, and GE. It is understood to be in advanced negotiations with other prospective offtake partners.

The planned mine, situated about 125 kilometres north of Alice Springs, would produce elements like neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) in oxide form. Those commodities are used to make cars, wind turbines and fighter jets, making them essential for both decarbonisation and defence.

The construction of the mine and processing facility would cost about $1.68 billion, Arafura has said.
 
Sean K said:
I really want to buy into the critical minerals / rare earth story, but they all seem to be going south. But, looking at a few of the charts they seem to be pausing. I wonder if it's a turn around story.

View attachment 172696


Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will detail the funding on Thursday. The government held a cabinet meeting on Wednesday in Darwin, where Labor signed off on a $4 billion package for Indigenous housing and $1 billion for eduction – a sign the government sees the Northern Territory as politically vital ahead of the next election.

Arafura’s funding – which includes about $495 million in loans from the Critical Minerals Facility, $200 million from the revamped Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, and up to $115 million in federal export financing – will underpin Australia’s second rare earths refinery after federal taxpayers loaned $1.25 billion to Iluka for a facility at Eneabba in Western Australia.

Arafura, which is listed on the ASX with a market value of $355 million, has agreements to supply rare earths to South Korean automaker Hyundai, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, and GE. It is understood to be in advanced negotiations with other prospective offtake partners.

The planned mine, situated about 125 kilometres north of Alice Springs, would produce elements like neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) in oxide form. Those commodities are used to make cars, wind turbines and fighter jets, making them essential for both decarbonisation and defence.

The construction of the mine and processing facility would cost about $1.68 billion, Arafura has said.
Click to expand...
The critical part is the forthcoming NT election, as well as the Fed election.
Everything else is window dressing.
In five years time, we can go back and look at how much of the promised funding actually spent on those funding items.
As has happened so often the past with governments, the reality will be significantly less than the proposal.
Mick
 
Still not enough, an equity raise is still required by ARU.
As for ILU...

In 2022, the government approved a A$1.25 billion loan for Iluka Eneabba plant through the CMF.
Iluka, in December, said the project was delayed and that costs were likely to have increased by around 20%.
 
My pick again for the April stock tipping. Great month with considerable support from the Australian Government. Share price spiked up well before settling down a little bit. My thoughts there is a bit more to go up.

Iggy
 
After a spike up in share price in March after receiving some government support, the share price has dropped a bit and is going sideways. With Gina Rinehart showing an interest in rare earths, I am hoping for a more positive share price for May. The quarterly report comes out on 29th April, s hopefully it is seen as positive as well.

Iggy
 
My pick for the August Stock Tipping Comp. After a placement, aways going to be a dip to close to the placement price. ARU down 15% today so hopefully from here, the benefits of the placement cause a shear price increase. Time will tell.

Iggy
 
Still waiting for the surge upwards after a SPP. Hopefully September. My pick for the monthly stock tipping comp

Iggy
 
Still waiting for the surge upwards after a SPP. Hopefully September. My pick for the monthly stock tipping comp
 

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