AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

The price action this week in US markets is what I would normally see
within a weekly timeframe & 5-day range, and where price is in
relation to the overall trend of the market. (Monthly Dynamics).

With the 5-day lows matching the Weekly 50% levels (support)

Because there was a change of the 3-day cycle on Thursday (break), this
can often lead into a 2-day reversal back to retest the original break.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

After last week’s reversal into the Weekly 50% level on Friday the bias
was to continue higher in December with a target @ 1126

This was based on the 4th Quarter target from October, that now has
a matching monthly target in December at the same level.

Today’s trading had a bias to move upwards and back into the Weekly highs.

These highs @ 1112 will either resist price and push the market back
down into a consolidation pattern until the end of the week....

Or continue with a ‘3-day UP move’ and complete the target @ 1126 this week.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

November 50% level support and a higher open above the December
50% levels and a push upwards into the 5-day highs on Wednesday.

Today is the first day in a number of weeks that the SPI is above the
3-day cycle highs (4761), with a view that price can continue towards
the December highs later this month.

Whenever a change in the 3-day cycle occurs, price is either going
to continue with the trend higher, (December highs) or move into a
2-day reversal pattern.

A 2-day reversal pattern is often to retest support levels in the
current trend, which at this stage are the December 50% levels.

It’s obvious that the SPI is going to be influenced by the direction the
S&P 500 takes (read above)

S&P direction:- 2-day reversal or continuation towards 1126

 

[Frank D]

DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

2nd day reversal after the change in the 3-day cycle, with a retest of
higher timeframe support levels

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Change of the 3-day cycle on Wednesday, and a 2-day reversal
pattern would be back down into the higher timeframe 50% levels to
retest support.

Depending on the price action in US markets on Friday, I still have the
view that markets will have one last push upwards next week and
then probably top out for 2009.

Of course things change next week if price opens below the December
50% levels, but I don’t have a high probability ‘short’ set-up in the
larger cycles to pre-empt a major reversal Patten at this stage during this
3-month cycle.

Only a short-term 2- day reversal during this Weekly cycle.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Posted on 27th November….

This is a bear pattern to keep an eye on…

If next week moves upwards and closes on it’s highs on Friday, and the
Week after that price reverses down and begins trading below the
December 50% levels, then the SPI is likely to continue down, as price
goes looking for the Yearly 50% level in 2010"


This is the week that I was talking about, except the SPI didn’t close on
it’s highs on Friday ( 5-day highs resistance), but the US markets did with the 5-day highs
on Friday, and expected 2-day reversal.

As I mentioned in the Weekly Report….

"Depending on the price action in US markets early
next week, there could be early weakness in the first two days, but if
price remains above support I’m expecting the market to continue higher
into a higher Friday close"

"Even though the UP trend during this month is expected to rise higher,
(2-month wave pattern) I’m also expecting a larger trend reversal into
2010 (read previous reports)"

At this stage it’s too early to tell whether this week is the week that
does reverse down, because I didn’t get the 5-day high on Friday in the SPI.

That pattern is a larger cycle and trend reversal pattern, as mentioned on the 27th November.

The SPI is at major support levels in this up trend today,and my only
concern is the price action in the US markets. If price does move down
2-days in the S&P 500 the SPI will be below key levels in the 4th Quarter.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly

After my post on the 27th November.... of this week being a
potential reversal of trend pattern, along with my view of US
markets beginning the week with 2-down days, I now favour our
market slowly unwinding and moving lower in the first quarter of 2010
(larger timeframe cycles and change of trend)

There hasn't been a breakout of support in US markets, and the only way
I would get short-term bullish again is if US markets have a Daily
'HOOK' pattern on Wednesday

That trend since March lows has been to BUY the dips using
monthly patterns, but based on current price action in the Aussie
market (not US markets), is to step aside until the first quarter in
2010.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The important pattern in the reversal of trend in the Australian market
was last weeks move below the December 50% levels, the weekly
close below those levels on Friday and the start of this week moving
lower:- potential ‘thrust’ pattern down.

At this stage the expectation remains a December low pattern and then
a push downward in the first Quarter.

However, the same ‘bearish’ patterns aren’t appearing in US markets at
the moment, after last week’s 2-day reversal and HOOK pattern on
Thursday.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern


Market trading below the December 50% levels along with my view that
the market is heading down, but at this stage price action continues
to consolidate within the 5-day ranges and movements of 42 points.

As pointed out, there’s no bearish patterns in US markets at this stage
to help validate the move down in the Aussie market.

The next stage and continuation of the trend, or the reversal of the
trend will need to see a 5-day range breakout.

My channel low support is beginning to creep upwards....(blue)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

December 50% level resistance, and today was the first day that the
SPI would be opening below the brown filter @ 4668 since the 4th December @ 4751

"today will be the first day since the 4th December that
price will be opening below the brown filter, which should help push
the market down R42 target @ 4615"


A downward trend would have completed the move down into 4615 but
then remained below 4641 and then continued down into Thursday’s lows.

Instead it reversed the range and moved back into the highs @ 4697,
and we once again have more 5-day pattern rotations, which i'm not complaining about. (no long trading today)

However, the SPI just won’t go down.

S&P 5-day pattern in now contracting, which will eventually lead to
a breakout of the 5-day range, and I’m betting that’s going to be tonight,
and finally get the SPI out of this tight range.

And even though US markets are currently supported, it doesn’t mean
the move will be UP on Thursday.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Since last week’s HOOK pattern back above the Weekly 50% level I
expected a move towards the Monthly highs within the first 3 days in the S&P.

I didn’t have a bearish set-up on the S&P in the short-term as price
wasn’t trading near resistance levels and price was above 50% levels, therefore the bias was to continue higher.

However, that bearish pattern appeared at midnight US time
with Wednesday's close and Thursday's open pre-empting the change of
the trend and break of short-term support levels and the 5-day range.

I've seen these patterns before:- 2-days consolidation around the
support levels and Wednesday moves higher but then drifts down
and Thursday opens below the 5-day 50% level.

Normally the market will remain below the 5-day 50% level over the first
4 hours, (after midnight NY) and then begin to move lower when the
day session begins


Whilst price is below 1098, the bias is to continue down towards
the December 50% levels. I just would have preferred a larger trending
day on Thursday towards 1083.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern


As per Weekly report:- "Friday's price action often suggests that next week will begin with a 2-day UP move:- random length.

if Tuesday is above 4690, then there is a bias to move into a higher Weekly close"


Today was part of the 2nd day up move, but price is still trading around
the December 50% levels @ 4690

Tuesday hasn’t closed above 4690 and hasn’t closed above the high on Tuesday to help verify a short-term breakout.

However, US markets have still 1 day to run on based my view of this
week starting with a 2-day up move.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report:- A 2-day UP move to begin the week, and if
above 4690 there is an expectation that the Weekly timeframe
should continue towards a higher weekly close.

Confirmed with the 5-day high breakout.

S&P getting close to my overall 4th Quarter target @ 1126.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

As pointed out in the Weekly report:- above 4690 after the first 2-days
and potential higher weekly close by the end of the week.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

S&P 500 has reached the 4th Quarter target @ 1126.

With only a few days to go until 2010, price is most likely to continue
higher into 2010, but it will be hitting a number of resistance levels, and I
will be looking for potential reversal patterns back into higher timeframe
50% levels.

Important patterns in 2009 were the lows in the
first quarter, the reversal pattern into the 2nd quarter 50% level. The
3rd Quarter 'Thrust' pattern away from the 50% level. The October highs
in the 3rd quarter and reversal down into the November 50%
levels....

And lastly the 2-month wave pattern upwards from the November 50%
level and into 1126 in December.


2010 should be an interesting year....

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

As per weekly report, open above the Weekly 50% level and expectation price will move back towards the Weekly highs.

Shift in December resistance @ 1126, with a target the January highs
1142

At this stage there are some upper resistance levels, but I don't have
any 'sell' patterns that suggest lasting reversals.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

S&P continues to trend from December 1126 and into January 1142

Friday’s highs match January’s highs, and if price hits those highs and
closes below 1142, then I would treat next week as a higher Weekly
open and resistance.

That would be my first ‘potential reversal pattern’ that could lead to
some selling next week.

Therefore I’m interested in how Friday reacts to 1142 and how the
Weekly timeframe closes:- above 1142 or below 1142.

Always verify higher timeframe patterns with lesser timeframes to
validate the trend or reversal of trend.

 

[lukeaye]

S&P 500

S&P continues to trend from December 1126 and into January 1142

Friday’s highs match January’s highs, and if price hits those highs and
closes below 1142, then I would treat next week as a higher Weekly
open and resistance.

That would be my first ‘potential reversal pattern’ that could lead to
some selling next week.

Therefore I’m interested in how Friday reacts to 1142 and how the
Weekly timeframe closes:- above 1142 or below 1142.

Always verify higher timeframe patterns with lesser timeframes to
validate the trend or reversal of trend.

Hi frank,

just following your commentry, we have a close of 1145 on friday. Therefore based on your methodology, we now have an expectation to move higher in this month and into next month? So the time based resistance level now moves to 1154?

 

[CascadeX]

Hi,
I haven't read all the stuff in between, but what is the max system drawdown?
And what starting capital base did you begin with?
What is the annual risk-adjusted return?

What is the sharp ratio on the aMt model/methodology.

thanks.

 

[Frank D]

Hi frank,

just following your commentry, we have a close of 1145 on friday. Therefore based on your methodology, we now have an expectation to move higher in this month and into next month?

Futures hasn’t close above 1142.

Read US report …

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

Hi,
I haven't read all the stuff in between, but what is the max system drawdown?
And what starting capital base did you begin with?
What is the annual risk-adjusted return?

What is the sharp ratio on the aMt model/methodology.

If you read some of the stuff in between you’ll realise it’s not
a system…

It’s a Model & Methodology based pattern recognition techniques using
Time, Price, support & resistance.

That should answer the rest of your questions.

cheers
Frank