AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

Ive bought your book/read your blog/Followed this thread.
i'm yet to see any of the above..

Have a look at the above Monthly chart….I mean how much ‘reliability’ do you need.

Am I mistaken, blind or just plain dumb, or does the market seem to closely follow my trading model?

It illustrates the key technical components of T/A:- support, resistance & trend analysis.

E/W is quite a young form of analysis.
I find it very useful and very insightful...

Yeah, if you want to play tennis with a wooden racquet.

Is this the 21/42 rotation we are talking of or the Ranges --The statistical evidence....

Have a look at the intra-day patterns during the trading day, they move in
21-23 and 42-44 points.

I already know where to trade, when to trade 'momentum' and when to
'swing trade'...... the market and trade management takes care of the
rest:- ‘Entry of least Risk’

The random pattern is, I don't know how far price will move away from
the entry especially when it's not optimised to the current trend.

For example:- the market is going higher into the August highs, however
I might short a 'spiral point' or a 5-day high looking for a 'statistical range'
in the market that is the dominate pattern intra-day of 21-44 points, but
it doesn't always complete the entire range, as was the case late yesterday
@ 4243 and currently now. (Chart Below)

And that's all I'm interested in:- patterns of statistical reliability &
entries of least Risk within a multi-frame model, whether day trading or trading stocks over a number of weeks/months.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

SPI moved into the 5-day highs and reversed down today:- probability and reliability.

There is an expectation that US markets still need to move up and
complete their August highs:- Tuesday/Wednesday.

Even though I think markets are still heading higher, and could
continue higher in August towards 4400, I would begin to look for
short-term 'tops' in the market around these August highs and a move back
down towards the Monthly 50% levels.

This pattern is based on a breakout & extend pattern from the
previous month, and price moves back down to retest the breakout and
50% level in the current month:- support

If that occurs, then I would want to be looking for 'long' positions once
again for a move towards 4400+ over the next 2 months.

This is my ideal pattern that I want to see instead of 'spiking upwards'
into 4400 in August, because it allows two bites of the cherry within
the Quarterly trend:-

At this stage it's not the ideal time to go 'GUNHO' into short positions
(long-term), because there isn't an alignment with a US markets and
their August highs, I would still like to see a Friday close below this
level @ 4314, and the Financial Index is about 100 points away for its
own August highs.

There is enough information in this post that might be of interest to
some over the medium term.

 

[tech/a]

Have a look at the above Monthly chart….I mean how much ‘reliability’ do you need.

Am I mistaken, blind or just plain dumb, or does the market seem to closely follow my trading model?

It illustrates the key technical components of T/A:- support, resistance & trend analysis.

If your referring to an example as statistical evidence,I guess it's just plain dumb.

Yeah, if you want to play tennis with a wooden racquet.

Ive often thought about this.
Elliott has many many books written on the topic,In fact scholars write their own books on the topic selling for 100s and often running out of print.
Software is available on the topic,amazingly powerful.Many 1000s of software programs have been sold to 1000s of traders.Often voted by software critics as the best around.

Frank you've been around since I started 15 yrs ago.

I certainly hand it to you, you are an out there guy,passionate and with "Something".
But after 15 yrs the Hawk-eye light sabre tennis racquet just hasn't seemed to have taken off.
Sure 2 "E" books and a hell of a lot of work in that.
But Id have thought something as powerful and as full of statistically PROVEN evidence which has been presented now for 10 yrs to the public would have been tracked down and become the new Market Profile---rendering all other analysis obsolete.
The inventor would have so much proven track history that rooms would be filled with people beating a track to your door with testimonial after testimonial appearing in support of this revolutionary trading methodology.
Books/Software/Seminars/Websites/Interviews/guest speaking invitations to tell the Muppets exactly where we just dont get it!

Just an observation---have often wondered.

 

[weird]

Frank, interested in your attack on E/W,

Yeah, if you want to play tennis with a wooden racquet.

while I don't use E/W myself, there are people like Paul Tutor Jones that beg to differ,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

"Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire commodity trader, calls Prechter and Frost's standard text on Elliott "a classic," and one of "the four Bibles of the business" --

"[McGee and Edwards'] Technical Analysis of Stock Trends and The Elliott Wave Theorist both give very specific and systematic ways to approach developing great reward/risk ratios for entering into a business contract with the marketplace, which is what every trade should be if properly and thoughtfully executed."[11]"


Also a quote from the first Market Wizards book (pg 130), and also mentioned here as the quote,

http://www.mtptrader.com/MTPredictor.html

"Elliott Wave Theory allows one to create incredibly favorable risk/reward opportunities. That is the same reason I attribute a lot of my own success to the Elliott Wave approach"

-Paul Tudor Jones"

Anyhow, while not wishing to distract from your thread, just not sure why you appear so vehement in rubbishing E/W.

 

[Trembling Hand]

hey Tech I believe the Beta video system was a superior one to VHS.

I believe Nicks education is better than SIM or Aussie Dog wonder where they sit in revenue?

 

[tech/a]

hey Tech I believe the Beta video system was a superior one to VHS.

I believe Nicks education is better than SIM or Aussie Dog wonder where they sit in revenue?

On the one hand we have a belief in superiority (AMT Model & Methodology)
Frank/Yourself a few others.
On the other hand we have a bigger belief in superiority.(Elliott and all its followers/educators/academics/traders). Books/Software/a few 100,000 others.

Interpretation and Application.
This in it self levels the field. Regardless of analysis type or style.

Now those proven statistical probability and reliability figures--are where?

 

[Trembling Hand]

On the one hand we have a belief in superiority (AMT Model & Methodology)
Frank/Yourself a few others.
On the other hand we have a bigger belief in superiority.(Elliott and all its followers/educators/academics/traders). Books/Software/a few 100,000 others.

Ah I see. I always thought MacDonalds was Sh!te but on your logic bigger proves it is the best.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

tech/a
Ive often thought about this.
Elliott has many many books written on the topic,In fact scholars write their own books on the topic selling for 100s and often running out of print.
Software is available on the topic,amazingly powerful.Many 1000s of software programs have been sold to 1000s of traders.Often voted by software critics as the best around.

Tech there is no correlation of numbers of books, software programs to real proven methodology that really works without doubt.

Catching cigarette smoke is an apt analogy for EW but I won't be biased.

Frank you've been around since I started 15 yrs ago.

I certainly hand it to you, you are an out there guy,passionate and with "Something".
But after 15 yrs the Hawk-eye light sabre tennis racquet just hasn't seemed to have taken off.
Sure 2 "E" books and a hell of a lot of work in that.
But Id have thought something as powerful and as full of statistically PROVEN evidence which has been presented now for 10 yrs to the public would have been tracked down and become the new Market Profile---rendering all other analysis obsolete.
The inventor would have so much proven track history that rooms would be filled with people beating a track to your door with testimonial after testimonial appearing in support of this revolutionary trading methodology.
Books/Software/Seminars/Websites/Interviews/guest speaking invitations to tell the Muppets exactly where we just dont get it!

Just an observation---have often wondered.

Don't you think it is an issue for Frank to deal with as he see's fit?

 

[tech/a]

Tech there is no correlation of numbers of books, software programs to real proven methodology that really works without doubt.

Catching cigarette smoke is an apt analogy for EW but I won't be biased.


Don't you think it is an issue for Frank to deal with as he see's fit?

(1) I'll remember that when investigating my options.
(2) Of course its just something I have pondered.

Those who don't use technical analysis at all think we all trade cigarette smoke.
Franks "My method is the greatest thing since a chart was invented" attitude to analysis is what gets up peoples noses.

 

[Frank D]

There is enough information in this thread and my books for people to use.

If you want to discredit it, then go right ahead. Start your own thread
and let's see what you got. I'd be more than happy to learn something new.

And, I actually do think it’s superior to all other subjective analysis.
It provides the core basis of what Technical analysis is all about, Support/resistance and trend identification.

I run this thread because I try and educated others of using a method
that’s far more objective than what’s out there.

If you don’t think that’s the case, then I couldn't give a rat's a*rse. Stick
to what works best for you.

It seems because I don't run seminars or charge $000's it makes it less creditable.

I've been around long enough, if you like what i've got add it and use it.

If you don't, then go back to your EW thread. I'm sure there will be a few trading set-ups coming long. Don't miss out.

99% of traders aren't Paul Tutor Jones and never will be, with or without EW.

I’ll continue to run this thread as I’ve always run it, end of story.

 

[glenn_r]

Does anyone have Franks indicators coded up for Amibroker and if so can you share them.

Thanks.

 

[Frank D]

That’s a good idea.

Can you please email me the codes also so I can pass them on, as I get a lot of Amibroker users asking the same questions, but I’m not familiar with the program or the coding.

 

[Trembling Hand]

That’s a good idea.

Can you please email me the codes also so I can pass them on, as I get a lot of Amibroker users asking the same questions, but I’m not familiar with the program or the coding.

What format/software are they in now Frank?

 

[nunthewiser]

FWIW.

i have found this thread intresting , educational and to be honest i have seen franks analysis fairly spot on most( NOT all) of the time ........

i do not subscribe to the notion of "the more sales must make it better theory " as thats like comparing a toyota corrolla to a bently

at times it probably would have paid me to actually listen/follow a few calls here instead of following my own analysis on overall moves of late ..BUT that has only been proven with hindsight and thats not how we enter trades.

thanks Frank , keep it up

 

[wayneL]

I've got a some Amibroker codes that work, but not sure of the exact parameters.

If someone PMs me them I'll happily share the adjusted code.

 

[beamstas]

I've written a heap of stuff with pivot points in Amibroker, but im not sure it's what frank does.

Basically what i have is 50% level is the pivot point for the month, with the top and bottom 50% range from the pivot point.

I have it done in daily, weekly and monthly, with paramaters to turn each one on and off, and also listing down the side of the chart each level for easy reference.

Im glad to pass it on, if it resembles anything close to what frank does. I basically coded the pivot points, from the section about frank in penfolds book, to see how it works.

Here's an old pic with plotting turned off

 

[wayneL]

I've written a heap of stuff with pivot points in Amibroker, but im not sure it's what frank does.

Basically what i have is 50% level is the pivot point for the month, with the top and bottom 50% range from the pivot point.

I have it done in daily, weekly and monthly, with paramaters to turn each one on and off, and also listing down the side of the chart each level for easy reference.

Im glad to pass it on, if it resembles anything close to what frank does. I basically coded the pivot points, from the section about frank in penfolds book, to see how it works.

Here's an old pic with plotting turned off

OOOOhhhh yours looks much more elegant than mine... I'm all self conscious about my probably clunky code now.

 

[Frank D]

What format/software are they in now Frank?

TH,

I use a program called fibonacci Trader, it has all the coding for
the indicators shown in this thread.

However, all the indicators need ‘tweaking and changing'

FWIW.

i have found this thread interesting , educational and to be honest i have seen franks analysis fairly spot on most( NOT all) of the time ........
thanks Frank , keep it up

Thanks nut.

I’ll never be spot all the time, anything around 50% and I’d be happy with.

I've got a some Amibroker codes that work, but not sure of the exact parameters.

If someone PMs me them I'll happily share the adjusted code.

Thanks, Frank

 

[beamstas]

OOOOhhhh yours looks much more elegant than mine... I'm all self conscious about my probably clunky code now.

It's what is on the inside, that counts

 

[nunthewiser]

Thanks nut.

I’ll never be spot all the time, anything around 50% and I’d be happy with.



Thanks, Frank

i wish i could think that was a typo , but i cant