AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

On Monday there was an expectation that US markets would continue higher into Tuesday's 5-day highs

There was a high probability 'Short-trade' last night on Tuesday's
highs, which was right on the Money, except this 'probability pattern' would
have normally closed down (lower Daily close) and not bounce UP
from support.

Tomorrow will be 8 days since US markets have retested any 50% levels,
and Wednesday will begin to hit July's highs.

Monthly highs are normally seen as robust resistance levels, however
I've mentioned it before:- Quarterly 'Thrust' patterns can breakout of
the Monthly range and continue to move towards the highest
timeframe levels, currently 1037 on the S&P.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

SPI Trading around July highs @ 4067. (high 4066)

These Monthly highs have stalled the market over the past 3 months
and could do the same.

That will mostly likely occur with a 5-day high rejection pattern and price trading below the 5-day 50% level.

That 5-day 50% level jumps up tomorrow @ 4013..

Each monthly high was confirmed by a matching 5-day high, and at
this stage there hasn't be a test of the 5-day highs this week.

Current 5-day highs @ 4067, and matching the Monthly tops

However, 3rd Quarter Thrust patterns can breakout and continue to move higher.

If price is trading above 4067 tomorrow it will also be above the
5-day high tomorrow, which normally leads to a breakout and
continuation upwards.

What do we also notice above the previous reversals down from the
Monthly highs, and even the March Lows...

They all started from higher Weekly opens (or lower Weekly open in March) and at this stage that's not the case.

A number of critical patterns are starting to line up, which should give
traders including myself an idea about the direction of the market.

Pullback or continuation of the trend UPwards...

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 & SPI Futures

Thrust patterns in the 3rd Quarter 50% have seen markets
rally into their July highs without any short-term pullbacks.

S&P 500 974
SPI 4120

Precise tops in both markets on Thursday, along with a 'Stalling
pattern' around a higher Weekly close and July's highs, with next week's
open the trend guide on any short term reversal pattern

Currently there are 5-day breakouts in both markets on Thursday, so it's
a bit early to tell whether Friday will reverse down or Friday closes near those highs.

There is still a view of higher prices in the 3rd Quarter, and July's highs
will dynamically move upwards in August.

We are due for a short-term pullback into the Weekly 50% levels, but I
have seen 'Thrust' patterns before and they are what they are:-
Trending patterns.

Dilernia Principles:- all trends originate from 50% levels and extend outward.

All trends end around support or resistance and rotate inward

Currently there is a Primary Trend that's rotating inward:- 4400

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Global Markets hit their Monthly highs on Thursday & Friday, but as pointed
out yesterday, there was a 5-day breakout on Thursday, which
often extends up towards the next highs, in this case Friday.

Regardless of the levels in the higher timeframes, the larger
timeframe patterns need to be optimised using 5-day pattern
recognition techniques;- Dilernia Principles

Whilst daily patterns and intra-day trading are optimsied using support & resistance along
with 'Spiral points' & range trading

We start the next week from a higher Weekly open next week....

Complete Weekly Reports on Aussie market & US markets.


http://austindex.blogspot.com/

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly & 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, expectation Monday would try & push up another
42-44 points into Monday highs @ 4129.

As per Weekly report, any reversal down is now based on Tuesday’s open
in relation to tomorrow's 5-day 50% level, because if it’s not below the 5-day
50% level it’s going higher.

However, that will obviously depend on price action in US markets.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report…

July high @ 4120 reversal pattern was based on Monday’s high @ 4130
and Tuesday’s open.

The past 3 months has seen the same reversal pattern from a higher
Weekly open back towards the Weekly 50% level as a first target.

However, we are in a new Quarter and a ‘thrust’ trending pattern
is occurring, which is sending the markets higher.

Once Today (Tuesday) failed to open below the 5-day 50% level,
market dynamics has pushed the SPI up towards Tuesday’s highs @ 4150.

The reversal down from these monthly highs was based on Monday
remaining below 4130,which it did, but Tuesday failed to open lower.

Monday’s expected resistance and ‘sell’ zone was open to RISK because
of the shift in the 5-day pattern and a Thrust pattern occurring along
with price now trading above the Monthly highs.

Anyone shorting around July's highs based on Tuesday’s trading has got
to begin to feel that the trade is moving away from them, and following the
3rd quarter pattern UP towards August highs.

Anyone holding ‘long’ positions on stocks can sit back and trade
the trend towards 4400….

However, around August highs will complete a 2-month wave
pattern upwards, which is an ideal area to partial exit some positions
and leave open others towards 4400, which is what I’m doing.

My whole focus on trading stocks within each Quarterly cycle is try and
take 10-15 % per quarter.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

If you are short, then that's what you want to see...

A daily close below the 5-day 50% level @ 4099, with the expectation
that price will begin to rotate towards the Weekly 50% level next week.

As per Weekly US report...

I was expecting a 2-day stall/reversal pattern from this week's higher
Weekly open, and that's completed.

However, A bearish pattern would have seen the 2nd day close below
their 5-day 50% levels and not above, thus providing a greater probability that the SPI could 'gap' open lower tomorrow.

Now it depends on what US markets do on Wednesday, and if they follow
the same pattern as the SPI....

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI continues towards Thursday's highs along with a Spiral top @ 4164.

Today's trading was a high probability pattern for a continuation upwards
as part of the 3rd Quarter UP move.

Yesterday reversed down into the 5-day 50% level into a lower Daily close,
and today rose up from the 5-day 50% level from a lower Daily open and has continued with the trend and 5-day pattern:- higher Daily close.

Random resistance around Thursday's highs, but there is an expectation
of higher prices in the near future.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

which broker do u use Frank???

 

[marknz88]

Cheers Frank! After finishing the book I can now re-work back through a lot of these charts as 'revision material'

Keep up the good work. Your contributions dont go unoticed

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI continuing to trend upwards into the last day of the month, and
heading into August highs early next month as part of the 3rd quarter
Thrust pattern.

Thursday high breakout:- breakout and extend into Friday's highs @ 4215.

Friday highs @ 4215 can be an intra-day resistance zone ,but i'm not expecting too much downside in afternoon trading.

Normally a HOOK bar over 4189 (blue) will continue upwards another
42-44 points, putting the SPI into 4228 and closer to the Weekly highs.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly

3rd Quarter 'Thrust' pattern with the expectation of price moving towards 4400+

However, based on market dynamics it might take until September for that pattern to play out.

August highs are view as resistance, whilst the 50% level is viewed as support.

Precise high on Friday @ 4215, and based on this pattern there is an expectation of a 2-day pullback in the market:- random length.

Day traders then look for patterns within the 5-day range thereafter.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bullish on the Market in the 3rd Quarter, however price has stalled on
the Friday highs @ 4215 and whilst below this level I would expected a
2-day reversal towards the 5-day 50% level @ 4159 as the first target.

This is based on the higher Weekly open pattern and 5-day high stall
from the previous week, which normally starts with pullback into the
5-day 50% level.

However, there is a Range that’s still thrusting upwards from Friday @
4189…

If price is above 4215, then there is an expectation that it’s following
the August Trend higher towards Monday’s highs.

It’s a simple case of trading on the right side of 4215 in early trading
and then using the levels in the 5-day pattern.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Open trading set-up as per book:- last R42-44 range from
the previous day has to complete before we move into the next day’s
range.

I mentioned 4215 in the morning report, but that level was nullified once
the range completed and the levels dynamically changed into Monday’s
levels

SPI Gapped on open forming higher spiral point...

Once below 4226 expectation for a move towards the 5-day
50%level or at least a range completion at 4190.

We have seen price move down and swing upwards 21 points and
retested 4226 already today, along with pushing price down once again
21 points (partial exit),but it’s having a hard time moving down towards
4190.

Even though I have a view higher prices in August, based on today’s
pattern I can’t be trading longs on the SPI…

At this stage today's set-up is part of the higher Weekly open and 2-day reversal down (stall pattern)

However, If the SPI moves above 4226 in afternoon trading the bias is
to move towards Monday’s highs but I’m not expecting that to happen as
yet....

But I would have expected a complete 42-44 reversal down from
today's highs by now, and that hasn't happend either.

 

[tech/a]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Open trading set-up as per book:- last R42-44 range from
the previous day has to complete before we move into the next day’s
range.

I mentioned 4215 in the morning report, but that level was nullified once the range completed and the levels dynamically changed into Monday’s
levels

SPI Gapped on open forming higher spiral point...

Once below 4226 expectation for a move towards the 5-day
50%level or at least a range completion at 4190.

We have seen price move down and swing upwards 21 points and
retested 4226 already today, along with pushing price down once again
21 points (partial exit),but it’s having a hard time moving down towards
4190.

Even though I have a view higher prices in August, based on today’s
pattern I can’t be trading longs on the SPI…

At this stage today's set-up is part of the higher Weekly open and 2-day reversal down (stall pattern)

However, If the SPI moves above 4226 in afternoon trading the bias is
to move towards Monday’s highs but I’m not expecting that to happen as
yet....

But I would have expected a complete 42-44 reversal down from
today's highs by now, and that hasn't happend either.

So like any other analysis the landscape will alter as trading takes place.
No analysis is poured in concrete.
Expectations,targets and projections all move with the market.What is clear at the beginning of the day may not be as clear during or toward the end of the day/week/month/year.

It's not the analysis its the exponent and their application of their/that analysis---in my view.

 

[Trembling Hand]

So like any other analysis the landscape will alter as trading takes place.
No analysis is poured in concrete.
Expectations,targets and projections all move with the market.What is clear at the beginning of the day may not be as clear during or toward the end of the day/week/month/year.

Tech the diff is in the probabilities and expected range. Where to enter and where to get out on the bigger time frame probabilities and range. As you move down into smaller time frames and ranges flip ya coin I guess for direction. Range still gives good "if - then" type of scenarios. Thats all that matters?

But I'm sure Frank will address your points.

EDIT:

It's not the analysis its the exponent and their application of their/that analysis---in my view

Isn't it always?

 

[tech/a]

A wise old trembling hand once said.

I was merely pointing out that just like the rest of us so called Muppets you haven't got the market on a piece of string.

and

Isn't it always?

Franks got some good stuff,which I use from time to time,but after the spray I got on the XAO thread re Elliott,I came in here for a quick counter attack!

But I'm sure Frank will address your points.

I hope so.
I have no doubt a "Dilernia Principal" will fix it.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Franks got some good stuff,which I use from time to time,but after the spray I got on the XAO thread re Elliott,I came in here for a quick counter attack!

hehe

Oh yes I know what ya up to. But I'm bored not trading so the forum audience gets the pleasure of my sh!te stirring and crazy fundraising ideas

 

[Frank D]

So like any other analysis the landscape will alter as trading takes place.

So what’s your point?

No analysis is poured in concrete. .

Yes there is, it's called 'elliot wave'. It’s got concrete boots on and at
the bottom of the harbour, where it should remain.

If you want to continue to use a lame methodology then there is a
Elliot wave thread that needs some help. it's deadly silent.

Expectations,targets and projections all move with the market. What is clear at the beginning of the day may not be as clear during or toward the end of the day/week/month/year.

.

Let me explain this clearly.

Trading is about finding patterns in the market and trading with
entry techniques with 'least risk'.

Once you find those patterns you trade-manage them.

I want to know where those patterns are in advance not after the 'fact'.

I want to be trading the trend before others get on it, and want to
get off the trend before others realise what's going on.

How a position trader trades is going to be different to how a day trader is
going to trade even though they are trading within same multi-frame
model.

As a day trader, all I care is finding trades using 'least risk', either
trading with the trend or against the trend, and I think I’ve
certainly described that in detail:- spiral point trading and 5-day
patterns and using intra-day patterns of 21-42 points.

I’m long stocks so I’m not missing any of this move in the market, but I’m
certainly not going to trade the same if an opportunity presents itself and
I can short a 'money pattern' of 21-42 points moves intra-day.


I could be shorting a higher point in a rising trend because I know that
there is a statistical bias and potential 21-42 point rotation downward.

If price moves above the ‘high probability level’, which once again has
been hardcoded that everyone can see and use, then you have a
statistical bias to either cover positions or switch into the change of
trend, once again trading a 'money pattern':- least Risk & reward

I work with a methodology, theory and mutl-timeframe Model that
has statistical reliability and statistical probability, that has been
hardcoded and objective along with certain 'principles and rules'

I have no doubt a ‘Dilernia princple’ will fix it

.

The important part in all my analysis, was that it was described in detail in
this thread that some people continue to ignore. I was using an
objective model that everyone else can use, and they can see it plan as
day. I have rules and prinicples so that patterns in the market can be anticapted in advance and traded accordingly.

1. Market to continue down in 2009, known from 2008


2. March lows reversal and 30% percent swing upwards:- known in advance

3. APRIL, MAY , June highs and precise tops in the market with the
expectation price would come back down into the 3rd Quarter 50% level:- known in advance.

4. 3rd Quarter Thrust pattern towards 4400, known in advance.

5. June high break out and extension pattern into August highs 4313:- which is always part of a Quarterly Thrust pattern:- Known in advance

Of course the actual outcome is not known in advance, but we are
trading statistical probability & reliability that the actual outcome will act accordingly, and we trade accordingly to our 'a window into the future'

It beggars belief that people still want to use methodologies that
were written 100 years ago (EW and Gann) that rarely stands up in a
real-time trading environment.

They are so fixed out the actual outcome of their subjective analysis that
they find it hard to adapt to the changing market dynamics:- Daily,Weekly and so on.....

Im sure Frank will address your points

I think I've explained myself and there is enough useful information in
this thread that i'm sure many readers have used in the past or are
currently using at this time but won't acknowledge it.

They will only briefly mention in passing comment, as ‘ the other methodology’ .

Back to Trading and making a buck.

 

[tech/a]

Model that
has statistical reliability and statistical probability,

Ive bought your book/read your blog/Followed this thread.
i'm yet to see any of the above.
Can you point me to this.
I was un aware you have been to such lengths to validate your method Frank.
This statistical bias has my attention. I was un aware there was a proven bias---.

Is this the 21/42 rotation we are talking of or the Ranges and retracements?---The statistical evidence.
Whats this related against.--Random?

Gann I agree.
E/W is quite a young form of analysis.
I find it very useful and very insightful.

They are so fixed out the actual outcome of their subjective analysis that
they find it hard to adapt to the changing market dynamics:- Daily,Weekly and so on.....

The exact opposite I find.
But then again I have my suspicions that many "exponents" (Past---as of lately.) on this board are more analysts than practical traders who apply the analysis.