AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Yearly

SPI Completes the 3rd Quarter move into the Yearly 50% level @ 4455.

That was my entire 3rd Quarter pattern, which occurred much quicker than
I wanted it to.

My preferred play was the reversal down from August highs @ 4313
and trade longs once again off support into these highs based on the
2 month higher high pattern into the 4th quarter.

This now completes the 3rd quarter move, and I won’t have a view until this month ends or even the next quarter begins.

Exact same pattern in 2003 stalled at this precise level and reversed
down into trailing support levels and then continued higher in the
following Quarter.

However, US markets are still short of their Yearly reversal targets.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

SPI continues up from yesterday's breakout and the extend pattern
into Friday's highs & spiral top.

Spiral top high (Friday high 4475) and price completes the range @ 4432,
and now below 4455 (Yearly 50% level)

My view that whilst below 4455 it's trying to move back to retest
yesterday's breakout.

This could stall @ 4404 (target) or continue down into the 5-day 50%
levels @ 4371 in afternoon trading.

Note:- a spiral low @ 4432 and back above 4455 could attract buying, but personally I'm not interested in trading any longs

 

[Frank D]

Financial Index

This entire rally in the 3rd quarter were lead by Financials, and I thought that would be the case with the 'thrust' pattern' set-up.

Friday's highs in the Index in my opinion is probably going to be the highs for a number of weeks if not months.

If anyone is interested I have 4 different patterns to play out over the
rest of 2009 and into 2010, which will have bearing on how I will trade
the banking stocks once again.

Personally, I wouldn't want to BUY (trade) into banks again this Quarter...

Full report click here... http://austindex.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

I'm bearish on the market since Friday's highs, but it's a bit early to tell if
the SPI will continue down.

This is because the current price action is moving back down to retest
last Thursday's 5-day breakout, which often occurs:- 5-day
breakout (Thursday) moves up into the next day's 5-day high (Friday)
and then reverses down to retest the break (Monday)

This price action has completed, and a bullish market would continue
upwards, if I was expecting the market to go higher. But I'm not in this Quarter.

Because price has already completed the move in the 3rd Quarter, I
would continue to look for 'short' set-ups at this stage in the 5-day
pattern.

US markets will have a huge bearing on the price action:- small 5-day patten and failure to
breakout of the August highs on Friday.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern


August high resistance, and I mentioned last week that if US markets
failed to break the August highs by Friday then this week would most
likely reverse back down.

This is based on the ‘tight’ 5-day range pattern, and then the following
week price continues down.

Start of the new week and sell off starts from the 5-day 50% level.

The first confirming pattern is a break and close below the 5-day lows,
and the first target will be the Weekly 50% level:- random 1 day support

 

[Frank D]

SPI monthly and 5-day pattern

Interesting pattern taking place in the SPI…

I’m bearish and my expectation is that over the next 6 weeks price is
trying to rotate down towards the 4th quarter 50% level.

However, August highs (4313) are now playing a support role in the
market, and today's 5-day 50% level failure to sell down on Tuesday
could see prices move upwards once again within the 5-day range.

August high support will be dependant on how US markets respond to their
5-day low breakout on Tuesday, as I would favour a move down on Tuesday but not necessarily a lower daily close.

Weekly 50% level random 1 day support.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per previous reports I’m bearish in the short-term because of the August high resistance
and higher Weekly open ‘sell’

And confirmed with a 5-day break on Monday:- Target Weekly 50% level.

Yesterday we had a higher daily close, but the most robust sell pattern is
a retest of the 5-day 50% level and a continuation down:- same day or
next day

I expected that down move to occur yesterday, but it's already in
the process of moving down:- Higher daily open on Wednesday
and continuation downward.

5-day pattern is slightly different today, because of the change in
support, and these support levels are extemely valid in up trends, but
are used as filters in downtrends:- optimisation.

If price is below support then there is less reason the 5-day lows will
support the S&P on Wednesday and continue with the trend into the
Weekly 50% level:- Higher Weekly open and continuation down

Weekly 50% level 1 day support.

If price bounces off the 5-day filter support levels (yellow) and is
trading above Wednesday's 50% level, then the overall Weekly 'sell'
pattern is open to RISK.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

I’ve been bearish since the highs last Friday but I would have expected
price trading below 4313 (August highs) by now and not consolidating above them.

However, that continuation down was reliant on US markets moving down
on Wednesday and not up, based on the Weekly 'sell' pattern.

The down trend reversal on the SPI will need to see the 5-day
lows breakout, which have jumped up to be trading @ 4296

There isn't anything to suggest the S&P will move down unless it
breaks support once again (no probability pattern set-up on open),
however price is still below August highs @ 1012

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Today’s price action verifies my view that last Friday in the market was
the high and that there is a bias to continue down
over the next 6 weeks until the 4th quarter.

5- day low breakout and back under the August highs

Currently SPI is trading above around the Weekly 50% level, which could
play a support role for a number of days.

Until the SPI is trading below that level or US markets the same, it looks
like more consolidation around these highs

US markets currently have weekly ‘Hook’ patterns, so I’m not factoring
in a DOWN day on Friday in the US, as HOOK patterns normally favour higher Weekly closes.

 

[swm79]

great commentary there Frank, "picked" it well.

 

[Frank D]

great commentary there Frank, "picked" it well.

Commentary and picking it is the easy part: - I know how to read charts

Trying to find the ideal set-up intra-day (least risk set-up) is the hard part because they don't always align.

Anyhow, I have no idea where the market will be in six weeks, but that’s
my preferred option to take another medium term position.

I might dip my toes in before then when September rolls around, but I
won’t BUY into the market at these highs.

 

[Frank D]

DOW and S&P 500

Bearish at the start of the week, until Wednesday's HOOK pattern.

As per book, Weekly 'hook patterns' favour higher Weekly closes.

S&P 500 should reach it's own Yearly 50% level next week:- 1038

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

5-day range trading with today’s open above the 5-day 50% level and
above the 5-day filters.

Continuation of the 5-day pattern into Monday’s highs.

Any reversal down from this level needs to see the S&P 500 stall and
reverse down from 1038 on Monday, and then be trading below the 5-day 50% level by Tuesday.

I'm looking for a 3rd quarter pullback from these Yearly 50% level in
the Australian market, but the reversal pattern is now going to be decided on
the S&P if it follows the same pattern once it hits the Yearly 50% level.

 

[ozbecool]

I browsed some of the above posts and I had a look at those fancy charts and numbers. Can somebody please tell me in plain language / a few simple sentences: what is the conclusion of all this , as for TODAY

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

I browsed some of the above posts and I had a look at those fancy charts and numbers. Can somebody please tell me in plain language / a few simple sentences: what is the conclusion of all this , as for TODAY

Have a look at Franks blog in his signature, he also has a book you can buy there. Might make things a bit clearer for you

 

[peter2]

Simply stated, it means that price could go up, down or sideways and that the ASX will probably follow the US market.

Frank trades specific setups that are based on his dynamic levels of support/resistance ("fancy charts and numbers") and is generous enough to share his charts on this thread.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Monthly and Weekly

S&P Yearly 50% @ 1038 has reached after last week's HOOK pattern.

This has completed my 3rd quarter pattern from March lows.

At this stage for any continued weakness in the S&P, price needs to
be trading below the August highs @ 1012 by the end of the Month, and
be continuing down the following week.

Otherwise, a Monthly close above 1012, can see the S&P follow
the September pattern into higher highs.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI back into the 5-day highs and the Yearly 50% level.

It's too early to tell whether there is a double top at this level until price
is trading back under the 5-day 50% level.

And that will depend on the direction of US markets on Wednesday.

I was a lot more confident in the reversal down last time, even though
the exact same patterns of the 5-day highs have stalled price from rising, previously @ 4475 and 4457 today.

At this stage with the market nearing the end of August and trading
above the August highs, a breakout and extend pattern in September
can occur towards next months highs.

 

[kotim]

An interesting conjunction coming up if we get there is that your yearly 50% on the all ords sits at the same level as the 50% retracement of the wave 2 top of 6060 odd down to the March lows and also the 38.2 retracement of the whole bear marekt is in the vicinity of 4536 which is only 40 odd points below your 50% level of 4578. Should see some resistance up there.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on the close above the monthly high in August (4313) I would favour
a continuation towards the September highs

Based on a higher Weekly open and reversal down from the 5-day
highs today, I would like to see a move towards the support levels
@ 4363-94

Those levels are my trend guides (support) for any higher moves in
September.

If the SPI ends up consolidating above 4455 over the next few days, there
is probably going to be a higher move towards the September highs
next week.