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AMT Model & Methodology

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This week SPI moved back down tested the 3-day lows and now is making a bee-line straight towards February 50% level....

This level is the trend guide for the next 4 week.....

As I mentioned in the Weekly report, my expectation that the Quarterly lows will support price for the next couple of Months, and any 2nd wave of selling will probably come in the 2nd or 3rd Quarters.....(From 3-month highs)

But we will get to that at a later date.....

Sold half of BHP today from $34.50 and holding until $42.25 to sell 2nd half...
If it doesn't reach $42.25 and it comes back down to $34.50 i'll re-BUY again...

If it moves up into $42.25, i'll be looking to BUY BHP again on the next 3-month low price pattern...
 

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December support, January Crash pattern breakout, February resistance, and now March.....

It's not a good sign when the last day of the month closes below Quarterly support of 5493.

Personally I would have preferred upside strength into a re-test of February highs before then next extended down move from April.

This could still occur as they often will support price or push price higher into contract expiry, however a breakout of the 3-week range and expectation price will push towards the extended zones within the current monthly timeframe.

5432 will give traders a pretty good idea on the direction of the market in early March, with a breakout below and expectation prices will push lower.

5432 is a line in the market for next week, and i'll just trade either side of that line:- above and looking for a swing upwards towards the 50% level in March (resistance)

Below and it's pushing lower....
 

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Still got those bank stocks that you picked up while the rest of us were sitting on our hands Frank?
 
Yes I do, and I still have CBA since the float, and having buying Banking stocks every year since using the exact same support zone.

And I bought banking stocks at the lows recently as a trading play....

But if you read my blog .....

I'm not expecting major gains in Banks stocks, I'm looking for consoldation that could last months and maybe a couple of years. ....19th January 2008

I'm pretty happy with amount of dividends I recieve each year... cha-ching
 
Aussie market has remained flat this week, as expected with the breakout of the Weekly lows, but with the March contract expiry coming up soon it's often pushed higher towards the date.

So looking for some Buying support to come back into the markets....but nothing to get excited about.


Banking Stocks....update 6th March 2008

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/search?q=banking

BTW, I trade every day I don't sit on my hands
 

Well if trading every day enables you to pick up bargains like CBA at $51.70, I'm happy to sit on my hands.
 
Dilernia Principle:- 2 timeframe wave pattern towards the Channel lows from the crossover...

Breakout of January (Crash pattern), and move down into March lows 5056, and now looking for a rotation back into the April 50% levels into the next Quarter...

Note: April levels will be confirmed on the last trading day of this Month
 

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The reversal upwards from March lows and the higher move on Tuesday has pushed price back into the 3-Weekly cycle highs @ 5464.

In 'Bear' Markets price won't spend much time above 5464, and the failure around that high yesterday is an important level and reference point.

5464 could end up being a major resistance level for many weeks, and that will only change once there is a 'Friday' close above that level.

In the last down-trend in 2002-2003, the Weekly cycles defined the overall down trend of the market....And it was until 2003 (double Yearly low pattern) that the Weekly cycles defined the UP trend reversal in March 2003

If and when price closes above 5464 on a 'Friday', only then we can look at the market in a different light, but at this stage I still favour global markets are heading lower in each Quarterly timeframe until the Yearly lows are reached in 2008...

In My opinion the next 3-months looks like a major consolidating sideways pattern.....
 

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SPI moving up into the April 50% levels.

Using Weekly charts the April 50% level won't be confirmed until the end of this Week, as the previous Week has begun in March.

Therefore we could get a further Drive upwards into Friday, based on the March timeframe.

Probably be hitting some Brick walls around high 5800's, but those Resistance levels will be confirmed at the end of this week.
 

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CBA swing back into the April 50% level @ 46.10.

And probably head up into 48.37 in this Quarter (major resistance)

If CBA and banking stocks are going to continue upwards after this push higher in this Quarter, then it would probably be in the 3rd Quarter when the 50% level drops from $48.00 down, and then becomes support.

At this stage it's a rotation back into the 50% levels.

How far can CBA rise in 2008.... well from the 3rd Quarter it could end up back around $56.00, but at least around fair value pricing @ $50.71.

But i'll come back to that in 3-months time....
 

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BHP starting to get extended around these highs in this Trading month...

Even though the Quarterly move can take it back towards $47++++
 

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