AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI plays to keep an eye out in April. (Weekly Report 5th April)

B. Reverses down early next week and re-tests the 3-week cycle high breakout @ 5464 before finding support....

C. Reverses down early next Week and continues down into the 3-week lows...

We have just completed Set-up B, a move down into the breakout of the Weekly highs @ 5464...

Now let's see whether tomorrow it continues down to the Weekly lows @ 5299, or swings back up into the 3-day breakout @ 5591.

I favour the 2nd pattern and move into a 2-day counter- trend rally Upwards, as long as the US markets remain stable, and we open up around this level tomorrow.

 

[Frank D]

Australian Index Weekly Report

Update: 12th April 2008

http://www.austindex.blogspot.com/

US markets:- DOW and S&P Weekly Reports

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

Weekly Report.... 12th April 2008

"C & D set-up:- Continues down into Weekly lows, and then swing upwards back into the Weekly 50% level, and as high as the April 50% level 5615

This is because of the Lower Weekly open and swing back upwards into a 3-day counter-trend move with the 'new' 5-day trading pattern."

Morning Report 17th April

"Today's open will be a gap open above the 3-day highs, whenever this occurs there is an expectation that price will come down and re-test the 3-day high break @ 5548.

We can see there is a large gap to the 3-day lows (5374), therefore I expect a 2-day stall reversal until those 3-day lows catch up with price for any higher move to continue.

Therefore today I'm looking for a push down from the higher open in an R44 low, but then Thursday moves into a consolidation pattern of 44 point ranges for most of the day."


Below SPI Weekly and Daily charts

 

[Frank D]

April 50% level @ 5614 rejection pattern....

2-day reversal heading back down towards the 3-day lows @ 5374....

 

[tech/a]

Nice Frank.
Like reading a book!
Only your writing each chapter a day ahead.

 

[Frank D]

Tech,

When you analyze markets from top down it makes it easier to ‘forward’ think markets 1-3 days ahead.

By looking at the bigger picture from the Yearly timeframes down into 5-day patterns, it makes iteasier to understand what’s going on in the current day.

Then it’s just a process of finding low Risk entries and taking chunks out of the ATR for day trading, I don't look for completion targets of my Daily analysis, I just take chunks based on 22 and 44 range movements within the Daily Price action using spiral points....

I always forward think every day based on two probable outcomes within the 5-day pattern and then wait until things line up.


My view stands at:- a 3-month sideways pattern in this quarterly timeframe, so we are going to get 3-day counter trend rallies within the Weekly 5-day patterns, within a major down trend.

And once this 2-day reversal completes today, we will probably end up rotating back upwards next week, into another 5-day sideways Weekly pattern from next Week....

With the overall potential move upwards into 5800+ in April-June Quarter.

Will it go to 5800? who knows and who cares!!!!

I don't care because I'm not trading anything that factors in holding for that long...

Full Report in tomorrow Weekly update in Index Markets....


I’ve already been lambasted by some on my BUY call on Banks around fair value around higher prices in January, but the whole time it was about investing 10% of yearly profits into banking stocks around fair value each year. I do it every year, and I will continue to do it…(chapter 11)

I don't trade margin positions below Yearly balance points, Once January opened below the Yearly balance point, any margin positions are open to RISK. I don't short trade stocks. I can do that in index Futures.

The whole time I’ve always said banking stocks will go lower. From day dot I said, "don’t trade margin positions, as banks will go lower in 2009, but in the mean time there are still trading opportunities in BUYING banking stocks within each Quarterly timeframe…."

There are times when you invest for the long term, and there are times you trade and take profits.

That is why I bought all four banks around Yearly lows and sold them all at a profit on the reversal upwards into the end of the Quarter in March, because I always said that I expect that price will rotate UP back into the April 50% levels.

Those lows came around my March timeframe lows and a swing upwards into the April 50% level For gains between 5-14% in all four banks…

As I mentioned in my Stock Report on 22nd March 2008…


Banking stocks have found their lows for 2008 , but I don't think there is going to be too much upside.

I think banking stocks can move UP towards the Yearly 50% levels once again over the next 6 months, but I think the financial stocks will remain range bound between the current Yearly support zones and Yearly 50% level, and then head down lower in 2009.

So what's my strategy for the rest of the year?

Well we have nearly completed the first Quarter and we have 3 Quarters to go.

My strategy is to try and take between 5-15% gains per quarter, and those gains are going to be dependant on my entry prices. As you can see the same strategy recently Buying around the current lows in banks but the % gains are dependant on my entry prices.

Between 5-15% gains in each Quarter and I'd be pretty happy with that for 2008. That is why I want to be Buying back into banking stocks around the Yearly lows again with the expectation that the Yearly lows will support banking stocks for the rest of 2008 and rotate back towards the Quarterly 50% levels.


Therefore I want to be trading double lot positions on Banks around Monthly and Quarterly lows looking for rotations back towards the higher timeframe 50% levels for the rest of this year

Because Banks will be under pressure and will have enough volatility to be pushed around for many months to come, I will move into weekly swing trading and using the Weekly lows and short-term trading of 2-3 day patterns back into the 50% levels and exit zones.


Today I’m being filled on some of my Banks around the weekly lows. NAB @ 27.85 WBC on Monday @ 19.90, ANZ trying to get it @ 19.80+, and I exitted CBA this week on my 2nd trade @ 42.99 on the higher open.

I already exitted CBA @ 45.10 a couple of weeks ago, But I want to see where this week completes before deciding the price level that I want to be Buying CBA again next week....

These trades are all short term trades, so I won't be holding them for long.

If I can do this over the course of 2008 in a Down market, I’ll be pretty happy to take between 5-15%, as I don’t have to concentrate too much, I just have to wait until BUY zones are reached and not chase the entry levels.

Then I can focus on all the short-term stuff for my income….and then pump another 10% next year into investing into banking stocks in 2009 around Dynamic yearly lows, which will be lower than 2008 prices.


Note: I always break up my banking stocks into 2 lot enteries in down trending markets so that I average out if my 2nd trade if price moves against my first trade.

I always factor in that stocks will always rotate back into 50% levels of higher timeframes..., but not always at my initial entry...

I do not want to be holding banking stocks coming into the middle on June, because if there is going to be a 2nd wave down in 2008, the potential exists for June to send banking stocks lower.

Therefore once again i'll will wait until banking stocks hit Quarterly lows in July-September and then hopefully take a bigger percentage return on any reversal upwards...

Have a good weekend.

 

[Frank D]

BHP heading towards $47+ in this Quarter, with a potential move towards $55 in 2008....

As it head towards $47, it closely follows the Weekly patterns in step formation, so it gives you an idea about how long any move can take whilst you have a view of the bigger picture...

Whilst price remains above $39.11 then that's the only view I have is to complete the move to $47+

If or When BHP reaches $47 then i'll wait until the next Quarter to be trading Longs on BHP...

Note: In previous post I mentioned I bought WBC @ 19.90, its was 21.90 last Monday

 

[Frank D]

2nd trade and exit @ $23.84 nearly nearly 9%.

WBC will probably head higher into Results on 1st May, and probably open higher tomorrow, but it meets my exit target and now on sidelines until next time.

Nice move on banks from last week

 

[Frank D]

NAB Bank Partial exit $30.70 holding 2nd portion into $33.80

 

[Frank D]

QANTAS trading around yearly lows and expectation that Qantas is rotating back towards the fair-value level @ $4.80 in 2008.

This week I posted in the blog (stock Report) that I'm buying @ $3.37 and looking for a move towards the 50% level to partial exit Qantas, and then for further gains higher in this quarter.

My Risk of the trade is to rotate down into the B set-up if it fails, but my overall expectation is that the Yearly lows will support price for 2008 and rotate upwards using a partial exit strategy on the way up..

 

[Frank D]

Australian Index Weekly Report

Update: 3rd May 2008

http://www.austindex.blogspot.com/

US markets:- DOW and S&P Weekly Reports

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

Last Week I bought QAN @ 3.37, and everything was looking good for a couple of days.

My partial exit strategy was to exit at the Weekly highs @ 3.73 and run an open position into the Quarterly 50% levels @ 3.87

I factored two bullish scenarios since my BUY....

A:- push up into @ 3.73, exit 50% position, and then re-buy the same 50% position at the Weekly 50% level @ 3.53 and hold for a move higher.(5-10 days time)

B:- price was going to move down into the Weekly 50% level @ 3.53 early this week, and then bounce up into 3.73 and continue upwards in 10 days time.

However Wednesday hasn't been able to remain above 3.53 and the Weekly 50% level.

Even though I'm still in the money on today's close @3.42, the price action of breaking the Weekly 50% level isn't a good sign.

Therefore strategy has changed to 50% exit my longs on stop @ 3.32 -5 cents (below last weeks lows) and hold an open position on remaining.



SPI This week has pushed up into the Weekly highs and now reversing back down towards the MAY 50% level, as per Weekly report.

US markets are forming 'Dilernia Drops' in the forward Weekly timeframes, which suggests a lower Weekly close by Friday, and probably follow the Weekly Report of a rotation back into the May 50% levels (Weekly report).

This normally occurs on either Thursday or Friday, (5-day channel break)which gives me another reason to run stops on Qantas, and look to re-enter later.

 

[Frank D]

Weekly Dilernia 'Drops' :- expectation that BHP is rotating back down into MAY 50% level.....

If BHP is going to continue higher, then I would look for a lower Weekly close and support around the 50% level this week, and then rise Upwards from a lower Weekly open next week, as long as price remains above the 50% level

 

[Frank D]

National Aussie bank

Expectation NAB is on it's way to 33.90....

Last week partial exit NAB @ 30.70 from $27.85

As per last Weekly Report:- ReBUY NAB @ $30.50 on any pullback, and partial exit today @ 32.55, leaving open rest into $33.90


BHP:- bummer on BHP because the MAY 50% level was my next BUY zone to re-enter BHP before it gets to $47.00, as part of the Quarterly UPswing.

Once BHP hits $47.00 in this Quarter, I won't trade LONGS on BHP until the next Quarter from June onwards.

 

[Frank D]

SPI completing the first stage of MAY's rotation back into 5870...

With overall push up into 6055....which might take another 5-days to get that high.

BHP completes Quarterly target 47.08 +,
NAB completes Quarterly target 33.89+

QAN currently dogging it....if it can get it's sorry Ars* over 3.46 this week (Weekly 50%) it might attract some buyers, but it just looks like it wants to go lower

 

[Frank D]

QANTAS was dragging it's tail for a few days...

Partial exit 3.73 and holding.....

Anyone interested in AUD/USD .....

http://forexspread.blogspot.com/

 

[MRC & Co]

While I must admit these charts are hard on my eyes and I am having trouble getting my head around exactly what you are saying (maybe I'm just thick (isn't this meant to be simple?) or need to have a crack at your book), there is some good stuff throughout the thread!

Thx.

Cheers

 

[Frank D]

Thrust and swing:-

Trade from central zones outward:- Thrust patterns

Trade from channels to central zones :- swing patterns

Each pattern is based on Time in multiples of 3.

Find low risk entries and trade using partial exit strategies regardless of whether trading stocks or derivatives.

The higher the timeframe the greater the movement…. Read the start of this thread will give you a better idea.

Simple????

Yes it is….. BUY support Sell Resistance

You would need to have a crack at my book, which is currently only in Hard back, but I’m going to do it in as an E-book, and drop the price which reflects printing costs and postage.

I will guarantee I will change the way you look at the markets, and change the way you trade.

However I can’t guarantee you’ll make money, some people are just absolutely useless as traders no matter what method or system they use.

 

[MRC & Co]

Yes, looks simple and effective and I am sure once I got my head around it, would not be a problem. A few things throw me out:

- A 2-month wave is NOT 60 days, it’s based on the higher
timeframe (monthly), the current month expected price move into
the following month based on the AMT model and market dynamics.

- 50% of what? The weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly respective ranges?

- Spiral point?

Guess the book would explain the exact steps in much more detail (so no need to rehash it all). I saw it mentioned in Brents book (Trading the SPI) and as 50% is the strongest gravitation for price out of Fibonacci theory, makes sense to use it. Especially in relation to various timeframes to get the overall picture and a breakdown of price swings within swings.

Agree with some of your other sentiments however, trend (guess this is where I incorporate time), support/resistance, volume and money management are what I currently use with good (not yet great) effect.

Cheers

 

[James Austin]

Frank,
where can I access literature re setting up Fibonacci software as you have, with your channels etc?
thanks
James