AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI:-

Push down early filling the gap.

Day traders partial exit 6781, with the expectation market is heading
higher with the shift if timeframes.

Obviously US markets re-action to
%rates will have a bearing on where the market opens tomorrow.

Risk 6752



the trader trading 'principles of successful trading'

 

[Frank D]

October resistance disappears today, and new levels on all global Markets

As everyone else is doing a blog, I thought I would do the same.

SPI, US markets, and will introduce forex down the track.

US blog should come out around 2.30pm EST

SPI should come out around 8am EST

You’ll find the Dilernia pivots each day, which often provide realistic
‘RISK’ levels, and also ‘swing’ points for traders to trade towards if
holding overnight.

I’ll re-post blog here a couple of hours there after.


http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

forewarning pattern on weekly timeframes once again.
This pattern can result in selling this week if trading below
the 50% level, which can result in a random length that can last
1-day or the entire trading week.

Weaker pattern will see a rotation back down into the lows of
the past 3-days… (30th October...)

A Weekly 'drop' in the forward timeframe favors a 'weaker' 5 day pattern this week, the length of any 'weak' pattern is random, it can remain choppy or rotate down much futher.


http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

SPI hitting resistance zone of the lows of the past 3-days @ 6737,

However expectation is that 'gaps' are trying to fill on the upside.

Higher 'gaps' will fill if US markets bounce off November 50% levels.

US markets support confirmed on Thursday, and only if Friday rotates back upwards into a consolidating day, and doesn't continue down into a lower Friday.

If support is confirmed on Friday, then I would look for a similar price pattern on US markets as last week with an UP bias, using the Weekly 50% levels as definition of the trend.

The weakness in US markets based on 'drops' is only for the current weekly timeframe, and not larger timeframes

Friday support needs to be confirmed in US markets based on the
Weekly close.

http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

A bullish market in Australia would have normally seen today rally on Monday at the start of the trading week, but the 3-day lows and break of the weekly 50% level of 6716 is sending the market back down.

With a break of the recent weekly lows The next level down would be for the market to rotate back into the November 50% levels @6362

Friday I was looking for the 3-day lows @ 6737 as resistance, and then on Monday, I was looking for Gap closure today on the Upside, based on US support on Friday, but Aussie market doesn't like it, and is following the same market path as US markets down.

No matching daily systems.....

 

[Frank D]

Day traders partial exit on R44 high @ 6660, swing traders would focus on a
2nd 44 point move into close......


http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

US markets cracked support today, and expectation is that the market is heading back down into October lows and then November lows...

Until US markets are back above the weekly 50% level in the forward trading week, the trend is down and will probably drag the SPI down into November 50% levels

http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

Technically today’s trading worked well, the bearish pattern is confirmed by the break of the 3-week lows @ 6573, with the expectation that the market is heading down into November 50% levels.

Intra-day, the lower open provided the perfect entry. Not only for longs and ‘gap’ closure, but for traders wanting to enter shorts, around the Spiral point highs @ 6570 and trading below 6577.

Day Traders: Partial exit around today’s lows or R44 points down from swing highs @ 6528, with the expectation that market is going to follow further weakness.......



http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

this would be nice today... past two days have lacked follow through rotating in 44 point ranges, but whilst it's below 6601 anything is a possibility today/tomorrow....

http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

SPI completed the rotation back into 6506 and continued with the trend down following the 5-day dynamics and into the lower pivots.

Overall expectation of price heading back into the November 50% levels.....



http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

5-day 50% level once again stalls the market @ 6544


Depending on what occurs in US markets tonight, but another weak pattern and expectation is to follow the market dynamics lower into the 5-day lows @ 6374, which goes close to matching the November 50% level rotation.


Last Thursday, the 5-day lows supported the market before selling off from the 50% level on Friday, and today the same pattern is occuring....



http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

US report....


Both DOW and ES have completed their swing back into the weekly 50% levels.

These levels were viewed as swing targets from the lower Weekly open this week, and also resistance zones during this week.....

http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

US markets reverse back down into lows after hitting 3-day highs and Weekly 50% levels....

http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

US markets on Monday were an each way bet, as long as traders traded on the side of the 5-day 50% level there was going to be a directional move either way....


"However with this week ending, the higher weekly open next week can therefore continue down into another 5-day pattern towards those November lows as shown the Weekly charts:- A higher weekly close followed by a lower weekly close as it heads down into November lows before major support is found in both these markets for this current month...

The 5-day 50% level, as show above (red lines), are going to be a critical factor in next weeks trading because it’s going to set up the next 3-days of trading. Above and it will head back towards the Weekly 50% level.... bearish pattern will just sell-off on Monday from the 5-day 50% level and head down (Weekend report)"

Monday headed straight down from the 5-day 50% levels and into the 5-day lows finding support on Monday. Both markets are nearing their November lows on the Daily charts.....Full report on Tuesday's trading later...


http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

US markets following the Dilernia model into Weekly and November lows.....

http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

DOW and ES-minis

"With the today's Dynamic lows lower than yesterday, I expect slightly lower prices on Wednesday before any rotation back upwards towards the 5-day 50% levels, and hopefully further gains....." (earlier report)

Both US markets came down and re-tested the lows providing perfect enteries using dynamic support using three timeframes:- Monthly Lows, Weekly lows, and Daily lows on both these Markets.

For Those traders LONG it's now managing the positions in both markets.

Partial exit both US markets at these levels and move stops to below today's lows, and hold for a potential break of the 5-day 50% level tomorrow for a swing back towards the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% levels

This week's trend is going to continue to be defined by the 5-day 50% level, so there needs to be follow through tomorrow....

Full report later.....

http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

US markets:-

Support around the November lows has been verified with the move back above the 5-day 50% level.

This market move was what the Wednesday Swing trade was about, with UP move coming 1-day late.

My expectation is for a continuation back towards the Weekly 50% level and move higher towards the December 50% before the next move ....

SPI:-

November 50% levels has verified support.

But is there going to be a classic 'sell-pattern' next week once the new month begins, or does the SPI move in a 2-month wave pattern upwards?

Support (fair-value) confirmed in November and moves upward from December 50% level and follows a 2-month UP trend using the Dilernia Model....

 

[Frank D]

SPI completes rotation into major support around November 50% level @ 6363, and this is also the 2007 Yearly high. Whilst price remains above the higher timeframe 50% levels, then the expectation is that the Australian market will move higher in 2008 towards the upper levels using Yearly timeframe dynamics.

There are two major support levels:- 2007 Yearly high breakout, confirmed with the November 50% level. The current price action at this stage confirms major support around November 50% levels, and often this provides the next 2-month Upward wave pattern.

The December 50% level (confirmed on the last day of this month) will be the critical level on the Australian Market for the rest of 2007.....(SPI Weekly Report)

 

[Frank D]

Yesterday played that role of filling the gaps on the way upwards on Tuesday, and today it’s playing the role of following the market trend defined by the 3-day cycles and Weekly Trend:- DOWN

Price is now back into Major support at the November 50% levels 6363, and further weakness is down towards 6251 and then proceeding lower into December lows.

Ideally I would still like to see consolidation into the end of the trading week, providing the better opportunity for short-trading down into the lower levels from December 50% levels, than this week.

No LONG trading for me around these lows today, see how it closes today before trading once again, as the potential to follow the weekly trend lower can occur:- higher daily close (Tuesday) followed by a higher daily open and moving down on Wednesday

Weekly Dynamics are 6273 (channel lows)

US markets still consolidating around major November low support zones.

If November 50% level @ 6363 continues to hold for this month, this same level won't be valid for support in December.

Support disappears as Time moves forward.

Trend Direction defined by December 50%:-

 

[Frank D]

This is what I wanted to see happen on Global markets:- November levels support the markets, and begin the swing back towards the December 50% level before the next trend develops.

This move on US markets above the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level is the first sign that a major bottom has been set, but only for November. Any follow through is going to be determined by next month's levels.