AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

James,

Go to fibonacci Trader:- www.fibonaccitrader.com there is enough information there.

What you see in the charts are templates I built myself, which the info is found in my book.

If you have any other questions just private message me.

cheers
Frank

 

[Frank D]

Next Week the SPI will complete the Dilernia Principle of a 2-wave monthly pattern towards MAy's highs @ 6065..

http://austindex.blogspot.com/

The Yearly balance point (6200) is where the entire sell off started in 2008, it would not surprise me to see a re-test of the Yearly balance point in 2008, but at this stage that's not my view. My view was from March lows @ 5056 into MAY's highs @ 6065:- 1,000 points

 

[Frank D]

SPI reversed down this week, as part of the 2-day reversal on the back of weakness from US markets....

Yesterday's trading was a first confirming break of the 3-day cycle since 9th April (5878)

Wednesday and Thursday 5-day low BUY patterns...

Whenever the market closes below the 3-day cycle, there is often a 2-day counter-trend move back towards the 3-day highs again.

today was day 1, reversal back into the 5-day 50% level.....

tomorrow i'm looking for a continuaton upwards towards the 3-day highs, but again that will be dependant on US markets, and where tomorrow opens....

Bear pattern:- opens just below 5830 tomorrow and sells off down on Friday, but i'll come to that if it begnis to play out.

 

[Frank D]

Last week we had the break of the 3-day cycles, a 2 day stall (Wednesday/Thursday), and then on Friday a 3rd day rejection pattern as price follows the 5-day pattern lower.

This week's expectation is a rotation back towards the MAY 50% level, and today it's following the 5-day pattern lower once again.....

 

[James Austin]

anyone out there using the D.model on the FTSE100?
James

 

[James Austin]

i take the silence to be no

james

 

[Frank D]

SPI trading below the Monthly 50% levels, and this week's price action is now following the usual pattern of rotating up towards the Expiry date.

Trading stocks from March lows up into MAY and moving into cash positions, and imo it's still too early to move back into stock positions looking for another counter-trend move in the market, especially on financials.

Last week's break of the 5-day lows @ 5485 confirmed the downward move, and yesterday's moves above 5352 has confirmed the rotation up towards the 5-day highs this week...

Next Quarterly 50% level should give a clarity of the trend...

 

[Euler]

......... but I’m going to do it in as an E-book

Frank, do you have a date when yr book will be available in E form?

 

[Frank D]

Hi Euler,

E-book is already to go...

I won't put the link up here but i'm sure you know where it is, or just P.M.

I suggest reading the book first and ask questions before taking up the 2 week free period, so you understand all the set-ups.

Also, if you do get into more advance trading set-ups and intra-day trading based on my work, you will need to eventually use the same program as me, which is Fibonacci trader (note: I don't have any affliliation with the program or get kickbacks)

I'm sure other programs do the same, but it might be more work on your part to get things aligned.

Below is an example of what I mean... which probably means nothing to you at the moment.


cheers
Frank

 

[Frank D]

SPI drifting lower currently supported around this Week's lows (5214) and moving in the usual 44 point range rotations within the 5-day pattern.

More than happy if the SPI continues the same patterns for the next few months....

Rest of this week should be defined by Thursday's highs @ 5305, on whether it continues down towards 5204, and then lower by Friday....

or above Thursday's highs 5305 price begins a Weekly rotation towards July's 50% level, which is the pattern i'm looking for,as the next move down in the new Quarter, where once again i'll be looking to move back into Financials looking for the next monthly swing pattern back into higher prices and exit once again.

Still expecting lower prices in 2009

 

[Frank D]

SPI heading down into Yearly lows @ 4538 probably in the next Quarter, after completing the two month counter-trend move from March lows...

http://austindex.blogspot.com/2008/06/australian-spi-index-weekly-28th-june.html

Full analysis on Aussie market above

and US markets below.....

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

First day of the month and Quarter, and yesterday was a push up into the Weekly 50% level and then a sell down.

The price action has been quiet orderly on the way down in June, but over the next few weeks we should be getting a lot of volaility back into the markets as they whipsaw around between July's lows and 50% level

Price action over the past two days should hopefully be the norm over the coming weeks with larger than normal ranges.

 

[Frank D]

Expectation SPI moving down into July's lows, before any potential upswing is going to occur.

July's lows Reached:- dilernia principle of 2-timeframe wave pattern

first sign of a short-term bottom is a breakout of the 5-day highs in US markets.

2nd sign is the move back above the forward Weekly 50% level in the SPI

And then I would have a view that Market is rotating back towards July's 50% level. (3-week highs)

My view stands that we are going lower in 2008, but along the way there will be short-term counter-trend moves within the Monthly and Quartely timeframes


Weekly BHP Report 28th June :- "

"After reading the report you can see that I have a view of a short-term counter-trend move back towards the July 50% level, and then a move back down into the Yearly lows.

If the Australian Market is going to head down toward the Yearly lows, it can't happen without BHP dropping back down towards 34.00 or even lower in the next Quarter."

Basically it means that if there is going to be a swing down or a continuation downwards after July's 50% level is reached it won't be just the banks going down, it has to be dragged down by resource stocks also.

Especially after BHP topped out at the Yearly highs in 2008.

 

[Frank D]

“Note:- Around the 100% of the Weekly lows in the 24 hour
market has often provide major support and reversal patterns
in the market for the current weekly timeframe.

That area of interest is around 4953”…… Thursday’s Report

Friday’s morning Report:-

“Yesterday completed the down move into July's lows, and around these
lows I'm expecting a reversal pattern back towards the July 50%
levels.

Yesterday I mentioned that once price reaches 100% of the
Weekly timeframe (4953) in sycom there is often a reversal pattern in the
market.

Last night the sycom low was 4951.

Therefore A bullish day should continue higher from 5013 and move
back towards 5042.

5042 is a random resistance/support zone.....

Above and expectation market is moving back towards the 5-day 50%
level 5107 :- just be a aware of any break higher from 14:35, which is
often the case on Friday's as buying comes in"



Today: pretty well played out precisely, from the lows in sycom, and the move from today’s open from 5013 (monthly lows) and back into 5042.

After most of the day trading below 5042, late buying comes after 14:35 pushing the market back towards the 5-day 50% level @ 5107.

But often as it happens, hit a double r44 range and sellers come into the market around the spiral top @ 5094.

Weekly SPI Report tomorrow

BTW i'm not convinced that today's lows are the lows for July just
yet, tomorrow's Weekly report will show you why, I still need to see a
break of the 5-day highs in US markets.

 

[Frank D]

Expectation that BHP would reverse back down from the Yearly highs and back into July's 50% level @ 40.57

July's 50% level is the trend guide for the next 3-months, and can easily move back towards the highs once again.

However as I mentioned before, I'm 'bearish' on the Aussie Index, and the only way the Aussie Index is going to continue down is with the help of BHP and other resource stocks, after any reversal up in July.

Therefore:- Keep an eye on any failure around 43.50 in July and a break back below the last Quarterly lows (39.54), because BHP will probably be under pressure over the next Quarter into September.

Fundamentally BHP is in a very strong position, but the stock will be pushed around by commodity prices over the next 3 months.

 

[Frank D]

As mentioned in last Weekend's Report....

SPI:- A breakout in June @ 5100 has the potential to move down
into 4836 (July's lows) before any reversal back towards the
July-August 50% level. (reached in Sycom)

But should be reached next Week. (chart Below)

http://austindex.blogspot.com/

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As mentioned in the US Report:- the first sign will be lead by the US
markets breakout of the 5-day highs, and then move above the Weekly
50% level.

DOW:- July's lows reached, and now the Weekly 50% level
has dropped below last's weeks highs, so it won't take much for the
US markets to begin a move UP once US markets are trading above their Weekly 50% level

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

Chart below...

Note:- Still expecting lower prices in 2008 even after any reversal up from these levels

 

[Frank D]

SPI moved down into 4836 and yesterday closed below, which puts my swing back into the monthly 50% levels open to risk.

We can see the difference between March lows and these lows, where the first pattern reversed on the dime, whilst this time it hasn’t.

Whilst below 4836, then my view is that price moving down into the yearly lows quicker than I wanted it to…

However, even though price is trading below 4836 today, it’s based on the weekly close, which means if Friday can close above 4836 then the August swing is still in place….

Weekly report 12th July….

“I'm not expecting a major counter-trend move UP like what occurred
in March this Year, my view is support forming around 4836 and
remaining range bound below 5100 until the end of July, and if there is
going to be a 'pop' upwards into the monthly 50% level, then there is more
of a chance that higher prices would occur from August.

After a rotation into the Monthly 50% level, my view remains that the
Aussie market is heading down into the Yearly lows @ 4538-82, which will
be helped by Resource stocks namely BHP”

 

[chops_a_must]

Just wondering how you got the yearly low calculation at about ~4500.

What I thought was partly your system, seems to have the bottom pivot at about 5500.

 

[Frank D]

Premium Report...."DOW is in the same position as the Aussie Market
and trading around it's July lows.

And the same expectation:- Friday close above 10837, then the
expectation is an UPswing into August 50% level before any trend
continues downward.

Weekly lows support ...first sign of added strength will be trading above the 5-day 50% level on Wednesday...."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

US markets rising up from their Monthly and Weekly lows, with the view of
a rotation back towards the August 50% level.

Note:- there is still no breakout of the 5-day highs, and price is
still trading below the Weekly 50% level, but Wednesday's trading in
most global markets is the usual pattern for a short-term UP swing.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Chops_a_must,

After 257 posts and you think my 'system?' is based on a bottom pivot @ 5500, then do yourself a favour and buy my book.

 

[Frank D]

"Can banking stocks and other stocks still be traded in a bear
market?

Yes they can, because around the Yearly lows, the expectation remains
that stocks have found their lows for the year, but can still remain
range bound for the current year:- between the timeframe lows and the
50% level, before heading lower in the following Year (double lower
low pattern:- Dilernia Principle)

In ‘bull’ market stocks normally compound 12% per year, however
the potential to make money could even be greater in a bear market than
in a bull market, even though the trader is buying stocks in a down
trend.

How is this possible?

In a Bull market stocks rise upwards, but don’t necessarily reverse back
down into double monthly lows more than once a year. If banking
stocks remain in a consolidating trading pattern in the current year, price
will come back down far more often, which increases the frequency
of trading. Whilst the exit strategies are based on exiting around the
higher timeframe 50% levels, or even using the Weekly channel highs.


Depending on the entry level this will give the trader the potential to
take between 10-15% on stocks in each 3-month period.

The expectation is that, in every Quarter price could move back down
into the lows. If the trader can use this strategy every Quarter, then there is
a potential to make around 40-50% on stocks using swing trading
patterns and channel lows in Bear Markets, as they consolidate for the
rest of the current Year....."

The Trader Trading ….. principles of successful trading….


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As per BUYS on Banks last week....

WBC is the first one to exit...

Entry $18.42 exit 20.95