AMT Model & Methodology
- Thread starter Frank D
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Most global markets have moved in a 2-day stall this week and found Buying support on the 3rd day.
Dynamically US markets are still trading below their December 50% levels, whilst the Aussie market is above it.
The closer it gets to contract expiry the more it wants to push higher....
Dynamically US markets are still trading below their December 50% levels, whilst the Aussie market is above it.
The closer it gets to contract expiry the more it wants to push higher....
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December 9th:-
Below is the Daily SPI chart:- rotating down from October highs into November 50% levels and moving higher from the next monthly 50% level, December.
The expectation is that the market is moving higher in December.
Next week the market path is mapped out to move towards 6735.
Ideally, the best and most profitable trading set-up would once again follow the market down into support and then rise higher as it chases the next level.
A rise upwards on Monday would be towards 6735, over a couple of days before the most probably reversal back into the 3-day lows.
In Conclusion:- Market is rising higher in December, expectation market is moving towards the Weekly channels highs, as first reference...
Below is the Daily SPI chart:- rotating down from October highs into November 50% levels and moving higher from the next monthly 50% level, December.
The expectation is that the market is moving higher in December.
Next week the market path is mapped out to move towards 6735.
Ideally, the best and most profitable trading set-up would once again follow the market down into support and then rise higher as it chases the next level.
A rise upwards on Monday would be towards 6735, over a couple of days before the most probably reversal back into the 3-day lows.
In Conclusion:- Market is rising higher in December, expectation market is moving towards the Weekly channels highs, as first reference...
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Last week it was modelled for price to move towards 6735 and then reverse back down into the 3-day lows. SPI hit 6735 (sycom) and reversed back down into the 3-day lows, and more.
Down 5-day pattern:- Weekly timeframe closing on their lows. This price action was not unexpected, because most new trends develop from lower weekly opens, as is the case next week.
However, the big difference now for any up-trend to resume is going to be the December 50% level, because technically everything now is pointing to lower prices.
The market is not trading above any support (50% trend identification), and could easily make lower lows in December. (below November lows)
Basically the 1 week reversal pattern has moved down to far for any major UP trend to continue in 2007, even though this week is contract expiry which often pushes prices higher by Thursday.
By analysing the larger timeframes, the market looks like it’s consolidating for the rest of the 2007, closing out December to set up the major Primary levels for 2008.
The Yearly levels (Primary Trends) are the driving force of all major trends.
Weekly Index reports for US markets have been updated.
Down 5-day pattern:- Weekly timeframe closing on their lows. This price action was not unexpected, because most new trends develop from lower weekly opens, as is the case next week.
However, the big difference now for any up-trend to resume is going to be the December 50% level, because technically everything now is pointing to lower prices.
The market is not trading above any support (50% trend identification), and could easily make lower lows in December. (below November lows)
Basically the 1 week reversal pattern has moved down to far for any major UP trend to continue in 2007, even though this week is contract expiry which often pushes prices higher by Thursday.
By analysing the larger timeframes, the market looks like it’s consolidating for the rest of the 2007, closing out December to set up the major Primary levels for 2008.
The Yearly levels (Primary Trends) are the driving force of all major trends.
Weekly Index reports for US markets have been updated.
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Market breaks December 50% levels and moves straight down into December low and support zones.
Weekly pattern is bearish, but there is a gap on the upside that needs to be closed.
That closure is only going to happen if US markets have follow through on the UP side, or from a lower open next week, as it rise upwards from support and back into January 50% levels in 2008.
The exact same pattern when US markets reversed off November lows.
At this stage December lows are valid areas of support.
Tuesday has an UP bias with a random length.
Island reversal anyone?
Only if US markets ‘hook’ back inside Weekly 50% levels on Tuesday
Weekly pattern is bearish, but there is a gap on the upside that needs to be closed.
That closure is only going to happen if US markets have follow through on the UP side, or from a lower open next week, as it rise upwards from support and back into January 50% levels in 2008.
The exact same pattern when US markets reversed off November lows.
At this stage December lows are valid areas of support.
Tuesday has an UP bias with a random length.
Island reversal anyone?
Only if US markets ‘hook’ back inside Weekly 50% levels on Tuesday
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break of December 50% levels, support disappears, and price heads straight down into the December support.
3-day consolidation pattern, and the break of the 3-day highs, changes the cycle and the market rotates upwards.
Even when we look at the monthly timeframes before, it all fits in nicely with Time and Price analysis using the Dilernia Model:-
October high-reversal, November 50% support-rotation, December 50% break-down, December lows support- rotation.
Next Week:- Trend will be decided by the Weekly 50% level @ 6377..
Above and price is moving back upwards to close the ‘Weekly Gap’, and then be defined by January’s 50% level.
A failure around the Weekly 50% level, will be part of the rotation back down after the change of the 3-day cycle. There is such a large gap to the 3-day lows, that I favour at least a 2-day rotation-stall before any up trend is going to occur.
The important part of this week, is where price closes, because it sets up important levels for Primary Trends in 2008
3-day consolidation pattern, and the break of the 3-day highs, changes the cycle and the market rotates upwards.
Even when we look at the monthly timeframes before, it all fits in nicely with Time and Price analysis using the Dilernia Model:-
October high-reversal, November 50% support-rotation, December 50% break-down, December lows support- rotation.
Next Week:- Trend will be decided by the Weekly 50% level @ 6377..
Above and price is moving back upwards to close the ‘Weekly Gap’, and then be defined by January’s 50% level.
A failure around the Weekly 50% level, will be part of the rotation back down after the change of the 3-day cycle. There is such a large gap to the 3-day lows, that I favour at least a 2-day rotation-stall before any up trend is going to occur.
The important part of this week, is where price closes, because it sets up important levels for Primary Trends in 2008
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Last Week I was looking for a 2-day reversal back down from 6377 and into the previous break, with a BUY day on the 3rd day.
Next week becomes interesting for all global markets..
Weekly reports have been updated for SPI, DOW and S&P
Note: Rumour SPI dropping contracts to $10 per point from $25 sometime in 2008. I can understand this with CFD operators taking a chuck out of their business.
Next week becomes interesting for all global markets..
Weekly reports have been updated for SPI, DOW and S&P
Note: Rumour SPI dropping contracts to $10 per point from $25 sometime in 2008. I can understand this with CFD operators taking a chuck out of their business.
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SPI Daily chart:- Trading below Weekly and Monthly 50% level. (Bearish)
3-day cycle BUY:- Confirmed bearish pattern will be a break of the 3-day lows
@ 6295, and first expectation will be price coming down to re-test Quarterly 50% level @ 6246
Higher Timeframe support 6246 (Quarterly 50% level, and Yearly Balance point)If it comes down and tests 6246, this support depends how US markets re-act on Wednesday because of some very important levels.
Because below 6246 the expectation is the Australian Market is heading down into January lows.
The overall trend in 2008 and this quarter is going to be defined by the Yearly balance point of 6246.
The SPI hasn't been below the Yearly BP since 2003, and it hasn't come close to this level in nearly 5 years, so it's an important level and trend guide early this Quarter..
Market Dynamics has shifted 2008 higher 7200+
3-day cycle BUY:- Confirmed bearish pattern will be a break of the 3-day lows
@ 6295, and first expectation will be price coming down to re-test Quarterly 50% level @ 6246
Higher Timeframe support 6246 (Quarterly 50% level, and Yearly Balance point)If it comes down and tests 6246, this support depends how US markets re-act on Wednesday because of some very important levels.
Because below 6246 the expectation is the Australian Market is heading down into January lows.
The overall trend in 2008 and this quarter is going to be defined by the Yearly balance point of 6246.
The SPI hasn't been below the Yearly BP since 2003, and it hasn't come close to this level in nearly 5 years, so it's an important level and trend guide early this Quarter..
Market Dynamics has shifted 2008 higher 7200+
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top stuff frank - loved the 50% factor and linear regression indicator (mathematical prediction) before I saw your model - ingenious
wholly fundamental traders should make the effort to understand this - nar, just take their loot
wholly fundamental traders should make the effort to understand this - nar, just take their loot
Last weeks failure around January 50% levels, and Dynamics are pointing to lower lows in this month.
Today is the first day trading below the Yearly balance point since it crossed over it in May 2003....
Below Yearly BP and expectation price is moving down into extended lows in January and Support once again....with more rotation within the monthly timeframe and then new levels pointing lower in February, as it makes its way back towards August lows once again in 'step formation' based on monthly timeframes.
Back above Yearly BP and rotation back towards monthly 50% levels once again and more consolidating Weekly patterns.....(which I prefer. Much better for swing trading)
Today is the first day trading below the Yearly balance point since it crossed over it in May 2003....
Below Yearly BP and expectation price is moving down into extended lows in January and Support once again....with more rotation within the monthly timeframe and then new levels pointing lower in February, as it makes its way back towards August lows once again in 'step formation' based on monthly timeframes.
Back above Yearly BP and rotation back towards monthly 50% levels once again and more consolidating Weekly patterns.....(which I prefer. Much better for swing trading)
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The Australian Market moved straight down into lower low after
selling down from the Primary 50% level @ 6238...First time in
nearly 5 years that price has been below this level...
SPI has moved down into January lows this week, with an expectation
that there is about another 300-400 points down in this Quarterly
timeframe...
However:- my expectation is that around January lows will find
some support, and move into another Weekly sideway pattern
before heading downing in the forward month....
Same analysis used on the way up, as each monthly timeframe provides
and road map:- support and resistance, and looking to do the same on
the way down....
Weekly Index reports have been updated.......
selling down from the Primary 50% level @ 6238...First time in
nearly 5 years that price has been below this level...
SPI has moved down into January lows this week, with an expectation
that there is about another 300-400 points down in this Quarterly
timeframe...
However:- my expectation is that around January lows will find
some support, and move into another Weekly sideway pattern
before heading downing in the forward month....
Same analysis used on the way up, as each monthly timeframe provides
and road map:- support and resistance, and looking to do the same on
the way down....
Weekly Index reports have been updated.......
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SPI has continued down into this level quicker than expected, but not unexpected.
The move down has been driven by US markets, and that move down was already forewarned in the US weekly report, and now i'm expecting a counter-trend move upwards.
I personally wanted a blow off bottom in the Australian market, but I think that with this low today, US markets probable up move this week, the expectation that over the next few weeks will be a swing back towards the Yearly balance point
@ 6328, and where all it started...
Note:- I'm not expecting a new UP trend to devlop for the rest of the year, all I'm expecting is a counter-trend move to the Yearly balance point....
The move down has been driven by US markets, and that move down was already forewarned in the US weekly report, and now i'm expecting a counter-trend move upwards.
I personally wanted a blow off bottom in the Australian market, but I think that with this low today, US markets probable up move this week, the expectation that over the next few weeks will be a swing back towards the Yearly balance point
@ 6328, and where all it started...
Note:- I'm not expecting a new UP trend to devlop for the rest of the year, all I'm expecting is a counter-trend move to the Yearly balance point....
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US markets have continued down into some very important levels today......
The important part of any major bull trend and support is the Yearly 50% levels based on the past 3 years of trading
12347 DOW CASH and 1374 (S&P cash)
We have already seen how markets have sold off from the Yearly balance points in 2008 down into these levels, but it's these levels in the market that define overall Trends in the market
These levels in both markets are extremely important because it becomes the 2nd phase of the bear market which can send the market down into much lower levels in 2008....
And Thursday's price action in the US doesn't show that anyone is really interested in any UP trend continuing...
Often you can anticipate major reversals in the market by using support or resistance, but the next day needs to have a follow through in the same direction and the new trend or counter-trend develops.
That day was Thursday, and sadly things at this stage are looking even worse than first thought....This week's support and counter-trend rally upwards was based on the follow through UP on Thursday above the 5-day 50% level and breaking Wednesday's high.. however price tested the 50% level on Thursday, but pushed it down..
I can't see any major counter-trend move UP this week, unless FED moves in to cut rates, even around these support lows...
These higher timeframe support levels often provide major support in global markets each Quarterly period, and we are into these levels now, but at this stage it really needs a kick in the back side by the fed because I know the potential downside in 2008 is much lower than these levels now...
The important part of any major bull trend and support is the Yearly 50% levels based on the past 3 years of trading
12347 DOW CASH and 1374 (S&P cash)
We have already seen how markets have sold off from the Yearly balance points in 2008 down into these levels, but it's these levels in the market that define overall Trends in the market
These levels in both markets are extremely important because it becomes the 2nd phase of the bear market which can send the market down into much lower levels in 2008....
And Thursday's price action in the US doesn't show that anyone is really interested in any UP trend continuing...
Often you can anticipate major reversals in the market by using support or resistance, but the next day needs to have a follow through in the same direction and the new trend or counter-trend develops.
That day was Thursday, and sadly things at this stage are looking even worse than first thought....This week's support and counter-trend rally upwards was based on the follow through UP on Thursday above the 5-day 50% level and breaking Wednesday's high.. however price tested the 50% level on Thursday, but pushed it down..
I can't see any major counter-trend move UP this week, unless FED moves in to cut rates, even around these support lows...
These higher timeframe support levels often provide major support in global markets each Quarterly period, and we are into these levels now, but at this stage it really needs a kick in the back side by the fed because I know the potential downside in 2008 is much lower than these levels now...
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Nice buying off the Quarterly lows today.....
I mentioned yesterday about a 'blow-off' bottom, and I think that was it.....
But the aussie market is being pushed around by US markets, so things need to happen in the US markets for a further swing upwards, as per yesterday's post....
I mentioned yesterday about a 'blow-off' bottom, and I think that was it.....
But the aussie market is being pushed around by US markets, so things need to happen in the US markets for a further swing upwards, as per yesterday's post....
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S&P 500
US markets sold off from the Yearly 2008 balance point into the Quarterly lows in 2008.
The same Quarterly support in the S&P cash since 2003, and price is now down into this level, and so far found some support around these lows on Friday.
The Dynamics of the market mapped out that price was making lower lows in this quarter, however sometimes we forget how quickly Price moves down to these levels.
We can see the previous falls in 2007 and remember how dramatic the first drop was in July 2007, and how dramatic this drop has been…
So will the market swing back upwards like every other time?
Probably not, because every other time price was trading above the Yearly balance point, whereas in 2008 it sold off down from the 50% level to the outer channels of the next timeframe….(quarterly)......(full report below)
US index Weekly Report
http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/
Australian Index Weekly report
http://www.austindex.blogspot.com/
US markets sold off from the Yearly 2008 balance point into the Quarterly lows in 2008.
The same Quarterly support in the S&P cash since 2003, and price is now down into this level, and so far found some support around these lows on Friday.
The Dynamics of the market mapped out that price was making lower lows in this quarter, however sometimes we forget how quickly Price moves down to these levels.
We can see the previous falls in 2007 and remember how dramatic the first drop was in July 2007, and how dramatic this drop has been…
So will the market swing back upwards like every other time?
Probably not, because every other time price was trading above the Yearly balance point, whereas in 2008 it sold off down from the 50% level to the outer channels of the next timeframe….(quarterly)......(full report below)
US index Weekly Report
http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/
Australian Index Weekly report
http://www.austindex.blogspot.com/
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This week I was moving into banking stocks and BHP, expectation that any blow off bottom would swing upwards and move into a 6 month consolidation phase before looking for any selling in the 3rd Quarter of the Year to move into lower lows for 2008…
At this stage I think markets will move in a sideways pattern and volatility will remain until things settle, and even push upwards in the next Quarter. Then I favour further weakness in the 2nd half of the year …but I’ll come back to that at a later day .....
(Wednesday SPI Report 23rd Jan 8:30am)
US Fed cut and this should stabilise global markets, and hopefully begin a gradual rise back towards the Yearly 50% levels over the coming weeks……
For any UP Trend reversal to take place, the first stage is the move above the 5-day 50% level,
The first baby step in any reversal is the 5-day 50% level (5435)
Any further moves upwards will be back towards the 3-day highs and previous 5-day 50% level @ 5715...that will happen if US markets continue upwards on Wednesday....
(Wednesday SPI Report 23rd Jan 8:30am)
Expectation that price will move to 5715 today
a blow-off top @ 5771 (today’s morning report 8:30am)
Full report out on Global Index on the Weekend…..
At this stage I think markets will move in a sideways pattern and volatility will remain until things settle, and even push upwards in the next Quarter. Then I favour further weakness in the 2nd half of the year …but I’ll come back to that at a later day .....
(Wednesday SPI Report 23rd Jan 8:30am)
US Fed cut and this should stabilise global markets, and hopefully begin a gradual rise back towards the Yearly 50% levels over the coming weeks……
For any UP Trend reversal to take place, the first stage is the move above the 5-day 50% level,
The first baby step in any reversal is the 5-day 50% level (5435)
Any further moves upwards will be back towards the 3-day highs and previous 5-day 50% level @ 5715...that will happen if US markets continue upwards on Wednesday....
(Wednesday SPI Report 23rd Jan 8:30am)
Expectation that price will move to 5715 today
a blow-off top @ 5771 (today’s morning report 8:30am)
Full report out on Global Index on the Weekend…..
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SPI rallied today into a top @ 5771
Analysis:- Failure at 5771 after such a big move early in the day, price can continue lower into the close.
Two possibilites coming into the last 100 mins of trading :- A swing upwards from (2.50pm) @ 5736, and heads upwards closing above 5771 (expectation of a down move next week after change of cycle)
Or it can move down into the close back towards 5715, and even close the gap @ 5580 either late today or overnight if US markets move down...
Blow-off top @ 5771
Whatever it does this afternoon it won't surpise me either way....
Analysis:- Failure at 5771 after such a big move early in the day, price can continue lower into the close.
Two possibilites coming into the last 100 mins of trading :- A swing upwards from (2.50pm) @ 5736, and heads upwards closing above 5771 (expectation of a down move next week after change of cycle)
Or it can move down into the close back towards 5715, and even close the gap @ 5580 either late today or overnight if US markets move down...
Blow-off top @ 5771
Whatever it does this afternoon it won't surpise me either way....
Australian Index Weekly Report
Update: 26th January 2008
http://www.austindex.blogspot.com/
US markets:- DOW and S&P....
http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/
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Update: 26th January 2008
http://www.austindex.blogspot.com/
US markets:- DOW and S&P....
http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Expectation early this week was for price to come down and re-test the break of the 3-day highs and find support above the Weekly 50% level @ 5766...
A Bullish weekly trend (next 5-day days) should remain above this level and head towards 5927+, and then towards February 50% level
Today is a stalling day, any further up moves will be from tomorrow..
Again it depends on US markets, and where it opens up tomorrow....
Because, as I mentioned in the Weekly report, below 5766 and expectation market gap will @ 5580 will play out...
A Bullish weekly trend (next 5-day days) should remain above this level and head towards 5927+, and then towards February 50% level
Today is a stalling day, any further up moves will be from tomorrow..
Again it depends on US markets, and where it opens up tomorrow....
Because, as I mentioned in the Weekly report, below 5766 and expectation market gap will @ 5580 will play out...
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Markets will reverse and have range lengths based on the previous
trading days, that is why we had a massive reversal last week, because
of the previous 5-days of trading.
The same applies today, the 2-day reversal, which often occurs at the
start of the trading week is simply trying to fill the ranges from the past
5-days of trading.
And the gap of 5580 is still there….
My morning post (7:30am)
SPI opening around the Weekly 50% level @ 5766, and it's going to
move either way. A 2nd stalling day (2-day reversal at the start of
the week) and expectation that price will push down a minimum
44 points....
Wednesday:- Random length it could move down towards the pivot lows
@ 5663.
If there is a reversal off these lows today, it will be impressive also,
because it's just filling the ranges of the past 2-days of trading.
A rate cut tonight and I'm sure US markets will move higher....
A failure of a rate cut, and SPI will probably open around 5580 tomorrow.
trading days, that is why we had a massive reversal last week, because
of the previous 5-days of trading.
The same applies today, the 2-day reversal, which often occurs at the
start of the trading week is simply trying to fill the ranges from the past
5-days of trading.
And the gap of 5580 is still there….
My morning post (7:30am)
SPI opening around the Weekly 50% level @ 5766, and it's going to
move either way. A 2nd stalling day (2-day reversal at the start of
the week) and expectation that price will push down a minimum
44 points....
Wednesday:- Random length it could move down towards the pivot lows
@ 5663.
If there is a reversal off these lows today, it will be impressive also,
because it's just filling the ranges of the past 2-days of trading.
A rate cut tonight and I'm sure US markets will move higher....
A failure of a rate cut, and SPI will probably open around 5580 tomorrow.
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