AMI - Aurelia Metals

[mullokintyre]

Tax loss candidate? Only narrowly escaped a 'cheap' entry to this because I was putting into other woofers, surprised at its deterioration. The terms have to be looked at but having been diluted to oblivion as an early shareholder of Intec Ltd (now SDV) by convertible note issuance I take them as an extreme negative signal

trouble is, I already have a wealth of tax lox candidates, and not much in the way tax gain candidates to offset against.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

trouble is, I already have a wealth of tax lox candidates, and not much in the way tax gain candidates to offset against.
Mick

Market response is to dump 20% off the price on the open.
Probably about right.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Unlike a few others, AMI refuses to drop below the 0.09 SPP in the cap raise for Aurelia.
Now question is, do I put my hard earned down for some Aurelia at offer price, or just sit tight?
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Well, I sat tight, and joined the other 60% of eligible shareholders who did not take up the retail offer.
The underwrites will end up with that 60%, so hope they act wisely(ha ha).
Naturally, now that the PP has closed, the shares are now 10% above the offer price, but I think I can live with it.
Have enough invested in this one, happy enough to see it take off.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Well, I sat tight, and joined the other 60% of eligible shareholders who did not take up the retail offer.
The underwrites will end up with that 60%, so hope they act wisely(ha ha).
Naturally, now that the PP has closed, the shares are now 10% above the offer price, but I think I can live with it.
Have enough invested in this one, happy enough to see it take off.
Mick

AMI up 13% today after going up 5% yesterday.
Both days well above average volume.
Something up here.
mick

 

[mullokintyre]

AMI quarterly out.
Biggest datapoint was the AISC of $2,315 an ounce, with the privce of gold in AUD a tad over 2900, that there is not much margin for error.
This will be exacerbated by the plan to recommence underground development activities in August this year, although the guidance if sfor AISC to drop back under 2kAUD.
But they made production and cost guidance, the 40mill raised in the SPP has got rid of debt.
Still holding above the SPP, so I should be grateful.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Latest quarterly out shows production slightly above guidance.
Federation startup still going to schedule.
$110mill in cash is nice.
Guidance for AISC still in low 2k range,
Gold needs to stay above 3kAUD to keep me happy.
Happy to keep holding for a while.
Mick

 

[frugal.rock]

The FY24 guidance figures indicate to me they won't have much cash left by the end of it...
Probably plenty of upside available in the SP meanwhile though.
Chart looks well oversold.

Chart looks like a run-up shortly is inevitable really.

 

[mullokintyre]

AMI released some drilling results from the Chesney North mine extension.
Pretty minuscule amounts, but from the management statement accompanying the details, it looks like the next version of the MRE will see it shifting from Zinc lead to a copper production.

Mick

 

[frugal.rock]

Chart update.
Double top, now eek.
White knuckles under $0.1
TA doesn't look great, could teeter either way, but I would suggest currently, downwards has a higher probability, however, keep an eye on those metals prices on the broader outlook on the medium or long term side.

Not held.

 

[mullokintyre]

AMI quarterly out.
Dec quarter out, most of it I liked.
Dec production down a bit on September, I doid not like.
but I did like the fact that AISC was down 10%and that the guidance mid range for 2024 is even lower.
The really good part is that guidance for 2024 gold production is up 90% above 2023.

Balance sheet looks pretty good too.
the planned CAPEX at federation should be covered by this years production without eating into existing funds.
Still happy to hold.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Chart update.
Double top, now eek.
White knuckles under $0.1
TA doesn't look great, could teeter either way, but I would suggest currently, downwards has a higher probability, however, keep an eye on those metals prices on the broader outlook on the medium or long term side.

Not held.

View attachment 169164

Yo @frugal.rock , not really being a charting person, I was wondering what your take on the 11.5 cents mark is. It hit there again today,
There seems to have been numerous failed attempts to break above that mark, with the only sucessful time it went to 12 intraday back on november 23rd.
If by chance it holds above 11.5 cents , can i class that as a positive/superpositve/fluke?
Thanks,
Mick

 

[frugal.rock]

Yo @frugal.rock , not really being a charting person, I was wondering what your take on the 11.5 cents mark is. It hit there again today,
There seems to have been numerous failed attempts to break above that mark, with the only sucessful time it went to 12 intraday back on november 23rd.
If by chance it holds above 11.5 cents , can i class that as a positive/superpositve/fluke?
Thanks,
Mick

Well, is this time different Muk?

My thoughts are;

• what's the FA on it,
• Is it gold price responsive (is gold even it's main interest?
• Macro TA for gold price or whatever it's into

Without knowing anything else, the dip below the 10 cent mark was minor and support came in to save the day.
Has been on a general uptrend for around 6 months or so.
Any suitable time above current price is getting to the higher line of the rising price channel, which is a good thing, imo.
If I was trading, I might chance a trade on it.

 

[mullokintyre]

Tramped past that 11.5 mark and up to 13.
No announcement, so don't know what prompted the 1.5 cents rise.
Sold the last tranche I bought at 10.
A thirty % profit is not something I will pass up.
Still have quite a few with an average price a tad over 13, so need some further advancement before taking any more profits.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

AMI hit a 52 week high today.
That might be my signal to exit.
Mick

 

[finicky]

That might be my signal to exit

Weekly chart looking pretty darn good and high volume today. Short term I guess there's a definitely a risk but longer term this is a sort of chart I'd consider buying.
Lost interest after Dargues I think it was and also I have a bad record with small mining companies, e.g. RVR and IMA recently - one big setback and they go under as they have nothing else as ballast.

Not Held

WEEKLY

 

[frugal.rock]

How's that trade working out for you Muck?

(If I had chanced a trade (re end of Jan post), I'd be standing near the exit around here, maybe even 1 foot out the door)

POG deflating a bit, for now.

 

[mullokintyre]

AMI EOFY update looks ok.
Gold production above guidance, and increasing as the year went on quarter by quarter.
AISC expected to be at the lower end of guidance.
$116mill in bank with an undrawn USD25mill loan available.
For some reason the market seemed somewhat unimpressed as AMI down 2% today.
Will need to look at the final report to get a better handle on where it might go from here.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

AMI EOFY update looks ok.
Gold production above guidance, and increasing as the year went on quarter by quarter.
AISC expected to be at the lower end of guidance.
$116mill in bank with an undrawn USD25mill loan available.
For some reason the market seemed somewhat unimpressed as AMI down 2% today.
Will need to look at the final report to get a better handle on where it might go from here.
Mick

View attachment 180363

The market must have taken a little time to digest the news.
Finished up 6% for the day.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

More good drilling results for AMI, but this time mostly copper.
The deposit continues to grow along strike, and although the copper price has taken a bit of a beating in recent times,
it is still in pretty good shape.
So of interest is the last comment from the CEO

“In the second half of this financial year, copper will become the dominant ore type mined at Peak, marking a clear milestone in the transition of Peak to its future as a copper mine.

Holding and will continue to hold unless it gets to 25, where I will take out the rest and go buy a new pair of shoes.
Mick