AMI - Aurelia Metals

[rnr]

Recently I sold my holdings in AMI @ 44cents. I had bought in @ 35 cents. 25% return in a month or so, not bad.

Hi @Chronos-Plutus

The only conclusion I draw from your post, other than you made a profit on your recent trade, is that you are of the belief that prices are heading lower in the foreseeable future!

Cheers,
Rob

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Hi @Chronos-Plutus

The only conclusion I draw from your post, other than you made a profit on your recent trade, is that you are of the belief that prices are heading lower in the foreseeable future!

Cheers,
Rob

Hey buddy,

Yeah; I think AMI may drift back down to the mid 30s. I only sold because of the massive 25% jump in one day. I thought it was a bit of an overreaction.

 

[rederob]

Hey buddy,

Yeah; I think AMI may drift back down to the mid 30s. I only sold because of the massive 25% jump in one day. I thought it was a bit of an overreaction.

Unless POG dips significantly then AMI will likely hold its +40cent price.
AMI just announced its maiden JORC-compliant Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate for its Federation deposit of 2.6 million tonnes at 7.7% Pb, 13.5% Zn, 0.8g/t Au and 9g/t Ag. It will use existing infrastructure to process this planned new mine so has more price in outyears.
More importantly, significant additional plant upgrades have been completed on budget, so ore processing costs and flexibility are now in play.
Added to that AMI will soon be producing from its high value Kairos deposits, and the remainder of 2020 will deliver strong returns, especially as their hedge book will no longer be out of the money.
AMI has no debt and a cash balance of +$50m so is likely to declare another 2cent dividend later in the year deriving a grossed up yield of about 6%.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Unless POG dips significantly then AMI will likely hold its +40cent price.
AMI just announced its maiden JORC-compliant Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate for its Federation deposit of 2.6 million tonnes at 7.7% Pb, 13.5% Zn, 0.8g/t Au and 9g/t Ag. It will use existing infrastructure to process this planned new mine so has more price in outyears.
More importantly, significant additional plant upgrades have been completed on budget, so ore processing costs and flexibility are now in play.
Added to that AMI will soon be producing from its high value Kairos deposits, and the remainder of 2020 will deliver strong returns, especially as their hedge book will no longer be out of the money.
AMI has no debt and a cash balance of +$50m so is likely to declare another 2cent dividend later in the year deriving a grossed up yield of about 6%.

I like AMI, but I sold out because I am heavily exposed to another miner which I believe will have better capital growth over the coming year or two.

AMI is a good company, but their assets aren't tier 1. I am focusing on mine developers that are bringing tier 1 assets into production.

 

[rederob]

An update on AMI for the July tipping competition:

 

[rederob]

Almost on cue from my last post, AMI's gold production doubled from the previous quarter.
That's a good outcome given that I don't think they have yet got into Kairos high grade gold.
Better still was their cash balance jumping over 50% to $78M with no debt.

 

[peter2]

AMI had a pretty disappointing 2019 and then hit by the coronavirus selloff in March 2020.
There was a nice BO-HR opportunity at 0.38, but price opened higher and "jumped the creek" (This is a very bullish Wyckoff term.) I liked the shallow sideways trading range and the decreased volume during this consolidation. I was aware of the overhead resistance at 0.55 and thought that if price gets over this then it's likely to continue higher and may even get back to the old high near 0.95.

@Bazzi I'm risking 0.10 trying to earn 0.40 and this is an acceptable RR for me.

 

[Boggo]

AMI popped up in my scan last week. I decided not to go with it but added to my SBM holding instead, a decision that is ok at the moment.

Possible weak support around .55 and 0.50 with likely resistance around .65 but the momentum seems to be in an upward move imo.
Just my worth to be treated with caution !

(click to expand)

 

[qldfrog]

One of my trend darling as popping on different screen up and down in the last few months.it means you probably have systems like mine playing around..
Just in case you get too focussed in trying to find rational fundamental reasons behind some moves.hioe it helps

 

[Bazzi]

For August tipping, the trend is still upwards as mentioned lately above and I see it running through the August steadily upwards

 

[rederob]

AMI announced their Quarterly Activities Report yesterday but barely bounced given that at the same time POG was on a roar.
Good news items:

• ASIC now at about A$1100/oz, giving a margin of almost A$1500 with gold sold into an average $2600/oz last quarter
• Hedge book closed out, leaving AMI selling into spot market with current prices likely to remain around A$2600/oz given strengthening AUD
• Cash balance at $79M with no debt
• Further high grade gold intercepts, plus Kairos decline now at target depth - in production by year's end

 

[rederob]

AMI announced their Quarterly Activities Report yesterday but barely bounced given that at the same time POG was on a roar.
Good news items:

• ASIC now at about A$1100/oz, giving a margin of almost A$1500 with gold sold into an average $2600/oz last quarter
• Hedge book closed out, leaving AMI selling into spot market with current prices likely to remain around A$2600/oz given strengthening AUD
• Cash balance at $79M with no debt
• Further high grade gold intercepts, plus Kairos decline now at target depth - in production by year's end

errata:
First, the above chart is 4-hourly, rather than 2-hourly, as I tried to fit a longer time frame in and forgot to change the title - my bad - but does not change the trend in any way.
Next, excuse the dyslexia as I keep posting ASIC instead of All-in Sustaining Costs = AISC.
As AMI's AISC is strongly linked to the price of its mined base metals, these need to be factored in to future performance.
The recently proven Federation resource is an absolute cracker in terms of base metals, so if further exploration delivers decent gold intercepts we are looking down the track at much higher value still.

 

[Boggo]

Well it did what I expected in my earlier post, hit the wall at ~ .65
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1081098/

I tend to think that it will have another go and go through this time based on the overall pattern and live price action behaviour, just my

(click to expand)

 

[finicky]

Been attracted to AMI a few times over the past few years but never ventured in. Haven't read anything about it lately but will.

'betweenthelinesfinance' on Patreon has just put out a vid on AMI. He holds some shares and says he might buy more when he reads the forthcoming scoping study for the 'Federation' deposit in a few weeks. Some wonderful drill intersections with strong Zn/Pb credits. He mentions the Dargue acquistion and how the market lost some confidence thinking AMI overpaid.

I like that the m.d has a mining engineering degree (i.e not a geologist), hands on operational roles, including with BHP and that AMI fared well after his appointment as did the previous company he headed, Stanmore Coal (SMR)

I notice on the daily chart that the price in March filled the breakaway gap @ 0.35 from beginning of June 2020! No firm opinion on the chart yet but looks a fair chance of challenging 0.40 again then breaking through the 8-9 mths downtrend resistance line currently cutting in at 0.40+

Interested again
Not Held

Daily

 

[rederob]

Been attracted to AMI a few times over the past few years but never ventured in. Haven't read anything about it lately but will.

'betweenthelinesfinance' on Patreon has just put out a vid on AMI. He holds some shares and says he might buy more when he reads the forthcoming scoping study for the 'Federation' deposit in a few weeks. Some wonderful drill intersections with strong Zn/Pb credits. He mentions the Dargue acquistion and how the market lost some confidence thinking AMI overpaid.

I like that the m.d has a mining engineering degree (i.e not a geologist), hands on operational roles, including with BHP and that AMI fared well after his appointment as did the previous company he headed, Stanmore Coal (SMR)

I notice on the daily chart that the price in March filled the breakaway gap @ 0.35 from beginning of June 2020! No firm opinion on the chart yet but looks a fair chance of challenging 0.40 again then breaking through the 8-9 mths downtrend resistance line currently cutting in at 0.40+

Interested again
Not Held

Daily

View attachment 122379

AMI will commence mining their Kairos deposits in the June quarter. Until those results are on the balance sheet, then any significant movement in share price will likely be due to more good drilling results, such as those from last week:

The other big price mover for AMI could come from POG, which may have finally turned the corner.
AMI has no debt and a solid and successful exploration record for a minnow.
Aside from that, it made the clever long term decision to invest heavily in polymetallic production facilities a few years ago, so will be able to take advantage on the present trend of increasingly higher base metal prices.

 

[Clansman]

AMI will commence mining their Kairos deposits in the June quarter. Until those results are on the balance sheet, then any significant movement in share price will likely be due to more good drilling results, such as those from last week:
View attachment 122427

The other big price mover for AMI could come from POG, which may have finally turned the corner.
AMI has no debt and a solid and successful exploration record for a minnow.
Aside from that, it made the clever long term decision to invest heavily in polymetallic production facilities a few years ago, so will be able to take advantage on the present trend of increasingly higher base metal prices.

They've got no debt because they've been mining pockets. I considered buying this in late 2019 and I'm glad I didn't.
Far too many shares on issue and far too much history.

 

[rederob]

They've got no debt because they've been mining pockets. I considered buying this in late 2019 and I'm glad I didn't.

If that is the case then Kairos will substantially change that situation. Then there is the Great Cobar PFS due at the end of the year.
So right now AMI looks to be a substantially better an investment proposition than any time in recent years (given also that Dargues has been paid for and had a subsequent resource upgrade).

 

[Clansman]

If that is the case then Kairos will substantially change that situation. Then there is the Great Cobar PFS due at the end of the year.
So right now AMI looks to be a substantially better an investment proposition than any time in recent years (given also that Dargues has been paid for and had a subsequent resource upgrade).

Change what situation? The mining of pockets, being glad not have bought it, having far too many shares on issue or having far too much history?

 

[rederob]

With gold back on the rise over recent days, this minnow will reap strong percentage price gains on continuation:

 

[Cam019]

AMI looking interesting here.