LOT - Lotus Resources

[Sean K]

Uranium stocks have obviously outperformed most of the market the past year or so due to increase on the POU. However, some more than others. BOE has been on a tear, maybe due to how close it is to restart and jurisdiction. LOT came out with a preso this am and have included a good slide that shows how far they've lagged behind the others just on an EV/lb ranking. That doesn't even account for already having a mine and plant in place that supposed to only cost $90m to restart.

Still wary of a hard correction due to the shape of the POU chart.

 

[Sean K]

Outgoing was considerably more from memory and it was offset by income derived by acquiring cash in the takeover of A-cap which was approximately $1.2 million.
Really hope they get a move on, statements like plan to get a debt advisor don’t really excite me, I would have thought that would have been well under way.

Hopefully this placement isn't just to keep the lights on but part of a bigger funding package to re-start the mine. They need to be asking for about $100m. I was hoping something with little dilution but can't see what that could be.

 

[brerwallabi]

Looks like very quick work if they have managed to secure funding. I suspect they may have made some offtake agreements which would make funding easier to access, if they are in negotiation with funding it would be still many months away as whoever is putting up a loan facility will still have to carry out some due diligence prior to finalisation.

 

[Sean K]

Not impressed in the slightest. POU above 100 bucks and they couldn't make a decision or get funds to just go bang and fast forward restart. It's like they're kicking the can down the road. FFS they're supposed to have a bloody mine sitting there that they only need to fix some of the rubber bits on. 'Accelerate FEED', huh? It was a working plant that needed tweaking to make more efficient and you've had years to have a plan. Pffft.

 

[brerwallabi]

They initially said once funding was secured it would mean a fifteen month restart which would make it mid 2025.
LOT are now saying around the end of 2025 to restart the mine with the foot on the throttle, what a joke.
Moving at a snail’s pace they will miss the boat as every man and his dog will be digging up uranium.

 

[brerwallabi]

They need to take down the sign they stole.

 

[brerwallabi]

Lotus makes the S&P/ASX300 index effective prior to the open March 18.

 

[Sean K]

LOT approaching the parachute drop zone for this fly bird. I might risk getting above 40c. Hopefully it now holds above this resistance/support but might be relying on the U correction to stabilise and head up again. And general market of course.

 

[Sean K]

This is slightly surprising. I haven't seen mention of a Mine Development Agreement being required for putting this back into production. In fact, I thought they had a mining license that meant they could just restart any time. I quote from previous presentations "Mining licence and environmental permits in place". So, where the hell did an MDA come from? What else aren't they telling us??

 

[brerwallabi]

Seeing the Malawi government have a 15% share in the project I don’t think the MDA is a problem.
It should have been finalised end of second half 2023 what the hold up was I don’t know maybe it was something to do with getting all the bigwigs out there on site.
Negotiations are still ongoing with the MG on how I guess the government receive orderly revenue from the project, it can’t be too long now with all the positive commentary from the mining Minister who visited the site for the first first time.
The Minister commented :“I am very happy to visit Kayelekera and see for myself the work being done at the project. The government of Malawi is committed to seeing Kayelekera back into production as soon as possible.”

 

[Sean K]

Seeing the Malawi government have a 15% share in the project I don’t think the MDA is a problem.
It should have been finalised end of second half 2023 what the hold up was I don’t know maybe it was something to do with getting all the bigwigs out there on site.
Negotiations are still ongoing with the MG on how I guess the government receive orderly revenue from the project, it can’t be too long now with all the positive commentary from the mining Minister who visited the site for the first first time.
The Minister commented :“I am very happy to visit Kayelekera and see for myself the work being done at the project. The government of Malawi is committed to seeing Kayelekera back into production as soon as possible.”

Yes, you are correct. Why wouldn't they approve it when they own it? A bit of a no-brainer really. I had to look back through their last few presentations to see mention of the MDA and it is there, but seemed to be just a bit of red tape.

Managed to tip over 40c this am which goes into my sell zone, but I'm feeling greedy.

The past year has been quite spectacular. More please.

 

[brerwallabi]

Shaw and Partners reckoned 47cents a while back.
It will be 2025 before it turns a profit, can only be good news going forward, Malawi desperately needs the revenue from Lotus.

 

[Sean K]

LOT hasn't really responded like some of the other U stocks as well as I would have liked, but it has recovered a bit recently. Sort of a rounded bottom formation that might take it to 40c.

Not really impressed with the ACB TO, could have just focussed on getting back into production with Malawi. Not sure if Botswana will ever be mined.

They really should be much closer to BOE and half of PDN.

View attachment 165873View attachment 165871View attachment 165872View attachment 165874

This rounded bottom thing has turned into a big cup reaching my target. I wonder if a handle will develop?

 

[brerwallabi]

This rounded bottom thing has turned into a big cup reaching my target. I wonder if a handle will develop?

View attachment 173445

Bit of a pull back today, uranium is off its highs a bit so there maybe some profit taking.
A cup and handle developed over a longer of period is more preferable and with the predictions by some of the uranium price galloping up to $150 per pound this might develop into a classic cup and handle.
Things may slow over the Easter period and LOT could well pull back before continuing another run up I hope.

 

[brerwallabi]

Lotus have appointed a debt advisor to arrange debt to restart the mine.
DFS required US$88mil upfront costs to restart which will enable 2.4Mlbpa production for 10 years.
Pre-production costs and working capital estimated at US$40 to US$50mil.

Comment from Lotus
“Our appointment of a debt advisor is a key step in advancing Kayelekera towards FID. Orimco
will assist Lotus in arranging cost effective debt to help finance Kayelekera’s restart, while reducing
dilution of existing shareholders.”

Hopefully we won’t see any dilution going forward however not sure with the above comment.
Can’t understand why the government don’t throw a few quid in.

 

[Sean K]

Lotus have appointed a debt advisor to arrange debt to restart the mine.
DFS required US$88mil upfront costs to restart which will enable 2.4Mlbpa production for 10 years.
Pre-production costs and working capital estimated at US$40 to US$50mil.

Comment from Lotus
“Our appointment of a debt advisor is a key step in advancing Kayelekera towards FID. Orimco
will assist Lotus in arranging cost effective debt to help finance Kayelekera’s restart, while reducing
dilution of existing shareholders.”

Hopefully we won’t see any dilution going forward however not sure with the above comment.
Can’t understand why the government don’t throw a few quid in.

Yes, hopefully not too much dilution. Not sure what the options are for funding, hasn't been mentioned.

Breaking into ATH territory, hopefully finishes strongly. What a great 12 months.

 

[brerwallabi]

A few weeks ago Lotus looked liked it was developing possibly a cup and handle pattern, it didn’t really stop to occur.
A pull back occurred down from 45 cents to 40 since then its continued its march upwards to hit 49 cents today.
Currently sitting at 48 cents up 60% since the start of the year.
Lotus is seeking capex of US$88mil and a further US$40mil for pre production and working capital for its Malawi
Project which will enable uranium production for a ten year period.
No news on any debt facility and cost yet, however the market seems to have a lot of confidence in the company’s projects.

 

[brerwallabi]

Not a lot happening in Lotus resources, the price got up to 49 cents and has now fallen back to 39 cents.
The uranium price is off its highs too from the early part of the year down almost 20%.
The fact was Lotus was increasing in price while the uranium price was declining, the recent drop might now be following the uranium price down.
Hopefully the trend line from October2023 holds, there have been a few pullbacks since its rise from 15cents however this is the largest.
Continue to hold.

 

[brerwallabi]

Down day in the market today, Lotus edges up half a cent, on a better day maybe they could have reversed the share price decline a little further.
From towards the end of May the share price has declined from 48cents to 29.5cents today, I don’t think Uranium has had its days in the sunshine, I continue to hold.

Lotus has reported results from a further 24 holes drilled at its large-scale Letlhakane Uranium Project in Botswana with 79 holes of a planned 180-hole program now completed.
Lotus is developing Letlhakane in tandem with plans to restart production at its Kayelekera Project, Malawi.
Letlhakane’s recently revised Mineral Resource Estimate, constrained by pit shells based on
reasonable prospects of eventual economic extraction, is 155.3Mt at 345ppm U3O8 for 118.2Mlb U3O8, of which 34.4Mlb (or 29%) are Indicated Resources.

All but three infill drill holes so far have intersected mineralisation, confirming continuity and grade as Lotus drilling aims to upgrade classification of Letlhakane’s resources.
Program on track to be completed in Sep 2024, with updated MRE to follow, 10 exploration holes are planned to test previously identified intercepts.
A scoping level study for Letlhakane is due in Q3.

 

[brerwallabi]

Lotus went in a trading halt today as they state they have an announcement on their MDA with the Malawi government.
Just hope the government isn’t going to rip into them and extract a hefty tax or some other sort of additional fee.
The government already have 15% of the Kayelekera project.
Just hope it is some good news as the share price has been hammered lately.
Malawi needs foreign investment so if they try to screw Lotus it will deter other ventures into the country which is incredibly poor.
The government is also well known to be corrupt.