AMI - Aurelia Metals

[rederob]

Some excellent drilling results from multiple AMI's sites has relaunched its price trajectory:

An example of AMI's successful drilling of late:

 

[greggles]

AMI getting smashed today after releasing their Quarterly Activities Report. Gold production down due to lower grades, and copper production also down. Share price is currently down 16.7% to 40c, but it looks like the worst may be over.

 

[mullokintyre]

AMI hit a 52 week high today at 49.
Back in Favour.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Good Quarterly out for AMI.
Production at the lower end of Guidance, but the AISC is down on previous quarters. which is a good sign
Free cash flow up, so happy to keep holding and will add on further weakness around or below 40.
Up today, one of the few greens I have today.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Another 52 week high today.
Took half off the table, with a profit of 25%.
Not the time to be greedy, and profit will head towards my EV purchase.
Mick

 

[rederob]

Took long enough to get back up there, but we now have a breakout:

I always get a bit curious when prices rise strongly against a trend, and without any announcements, so I reckon there might be another drilling report about to come out with good results.
As a polymetallic producer the continuing price rises in zinc have certainly been a bonus in recent months.
All we need is another lift in POG and AMI should clear its 63.5 cent high of July 2020.

 

[mullokintyre]

After hitting another 52 week high on the open this morning, AMI got crunched when the punters were seemingly not impressed with the released Dargues life of mine statement.
They have revised down their reserves after drilling revealed "complexity at depth affecting mainly grade".
Shine gone off, so I sold the other half, still at a profit, but as good as if I had sold yesterday.
Mick

 

[finicky]

Probably won't bite but there could be a reversal setting up here - at least in the short/med term.
A few reversal or indecisive candles in the last 6 days of trading and the RSI momentum indicator is down at historical level. Morever, price has moved outside the recent downtrend. There has been support at this level which is not observable in this 6 months chart - the support was broken in Aug/Sept 2021 but recovered.
This is a stock that BtL finance has bought a modest amount of and his average price might have been a little higher (not much) than this. Hmm, tempting.

Daily

 

[mullokintyre]

AMI down near 52 week lows, but still not attractive enough to get in.
BTL finance has a report out where its just not attractive enough at the moment, especially witjh lower credits for the base metals likely to decrease in the next quarter.
Writ downs for the dud Dargues mine will put pressure on the price once they are accounted for.
So not yet ready to jump back in. despite the big fall since I sold at 44 and 46.
They need to get some of the yucky stuff cleared off the books.
Mick

 

[finicky]

I think BtL Finance said he was out - which doesn't mean he won't get back in as he has been very impressed by the Federation deposit. I think he's done a recent video dedicated to AMI but I haven't caught up as it's not high in my priorities. Good point about possible write-down of Dargues.

 

[mullokintyre]

According to The Evil Murdoch press Aurelia may be a takeover target.

Management departures at Aurelia Metals have some pegging the Australian listed group as the next takeover target in the gold mining space.
The company’s market value is about $160m yet the net present value is about $400m which makes the company look like a bargain.

Analysts believe the most obvious buyer is fellow Australian listed gold miner Aeris Resources with a $373m market value. One of the reasons the company appears vulnerable is that it has lost key members of management.
Aurelia announced on November 18 that chief executive Dan Clifford was stepping down and that Andrew Graham was the interim boss under the mentorship of director and former St Barbara boss Bob Vassie. Recently, Martin Cummings was also appointed chief financial officer.

There is a theory that the company perhaps may even place itself up for sale as it continues to face pressure to return value to shareholders.

Not sure if there is any truth in this scenario, but AMI although a long way from its highs, seems to have turned in the correct diection.
Seeing as I sold out at much higher prices, may take a small parcel, just in case.
Mick

 

[frugal.rock]

Chart only update.

 

[finicky]

A contrarian punt?
BtL fiinance said that he's picking up a few on the speculation that it might become a takeover target.
I'm cautious though, he was similarly motivated about Saturn Metals (STN) and I'm down 58% so far following him into that one as he's a very active trader and I'm a lead footed holder.

As a potential inflection chart it's no slam dunk but the exceptionally high positive volume of last week deserves notice. The candle is an indecisive 'doji' in a downtrend. So a lot of volume has gone in with no effect meaning buyers matched sellers on a hectic day - so why?
Close was a little up on prior week. Divergent momentum.

Not Held
Pbly won't bite.

Weekly

 

[finicky]

Aurelia up 25% today on a decent bit of volume.

Not Held

Daily

 

[mullokintyre]

Aurelia up 25% today on a decent bit of volume.

Not Held

Daily
View attachment 155238

probly all the followers of BTL getting set.
I also got caught with Saturn, but got out fairly quickly after first purchasing.

Mick

 

[finicky]

Think I might risk another infrequent taster from 'Between the Lines Finance' on Patreon. He has three other videos this weekend: Gold, Macro and Miners update, Adriatic update, Centaurus commentary.

AMI Not Held

 

[mullokintyre]

Think I might risk another infrequent taster from 'Between the Lines Finance' on Patreon. He has three other videos this weekend: Gold, Macro and Miners update, Adriatic update, Centaurus commentary.

AMI Not Held

Another mention for AMI last week in the BTL summary.
The big question is, can they complete the Federation build capex without a cap raise?
Would be nice.
I got back in at 0.14
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

The quarterly results out look promising.
The cash flow waterfall says a lot.

the cash balance had a big increase , even after debt was paid down, plus they have effectively cancelled some of the long term "potential debt" facilities, this reducing financing costs.
Gold Lead and Zinc were all up.
They have drastically reduced their hedge book from 133k ounces own to 4k ounces.
Downside is the extremely high AISC of $2556.
They are going to need to have gold sales north of 3kAUD to get any traction.
Everything else is going in the right direction.
However, it will still require multiple quarters like this one and they will be able to fund Federation expansion without going to market.
mick

 

[mullokintyre]

The quarterly results out look promising.
The cash flow waterfall says a lot.
View attachment 156032
the cash balance had a big increase , even after debt was paid down, plus they have effectively cancelled some of the long term "potential debt" facilities, this reducing financing costs.
Gold Lead and Zinc were all up.
They have drastically reduced their hedge book from 133k ounces own to 4k ounces.
Downside is the extremely high AISC of $2556.
They are going to need to have gold sales north of 3kAUD to get any traction.
Everything else is going in the right direction.
However, it will still require multiple quarters like this one and they will be able to fund Federation expansion without going to market.
mick

Well todays announcement answered that question.
Federation is going to require some serious capex.
Raising 40 mill with 10 mill to the instos, and 30 mill to the plebs.
All at 0.09.
Considering my last buy in was at 0.17, I am so far under water I cant see the light on the surface.
And they also have a 100 mill financing facility via convertible notes at 6%.
Not one of my great investments.
Mick

 

[finicky]

Tax loss candidate? Only narrowly escaped a 'cheap' entry to this because I was putting into other woofers, surprised at its deterioration. The terms have to be looked at but having been diluted to oblivion as an early shareholder of Intec Ltd (now SDV) by convertible note issuance I take them as an extreme negative signal