America in recession?

[divs4ever]

If the FED had done their job over the past 6 months there could have been a gradual increase in the interest rate, instead, after much procrastinating, they are now looking like a rabbit in a spot light

but the Fed MUST be doing the job , Powell got rehired , and only the blatant front-runners got replaced

but maybe the job being done has nothing to do with improving the US economy

 

[Tyre Kicker]

The Yanks and Powell have had the luxury of keeping an eye on inflation monthly - and it was obvious to Blind Freddy that they were wrong re inflation being transitory a fair while ago. Need only read back through the ‘Inflation’ thread to confirm that, which was exactly what most of us knew and were saying.

Surely the Fed doesn’t go over the top and cause another huge problem.

 

[over9k]

Maybe the inflationary pressures are supply side through russian oil being cut off?

 

[divs4ever]

Maybe the inflationary pressures are supply side through russian oil being cut off?

well the sanctions are NOT the solution i would be trying , but the inflation problems were obvious as soon as most governments reacted to the virus , but was the inflation storm clouds forming before the start of 2020 ,

some would suggest Trump starting the tariff wars was the breeding ground of the current inflation cycle

now IN THEORY , bringing US manufacturing back home from being partially/fully out-sourced ( it would help slow the IP leakage as well ) was a better choice , than the previous policy of shipping manufacturing jobs off-shore ( apart from slashing production costs and increasing profit margins )

one inflation pressure rarely discussed is regulation/compliance costs ( which tend to increase without reference to the CPI )

but theory and application of the theory often have different outcomes

and inflation tends to be a compounding problem so it can accumulate ( keep the same rate year after year OR accelerate , and even slowing inflation still rises prices , just not as much as last year )

you could almost claim inflation is baked into the capitalist system , but that would not be true ( all the time ) cutting costs via better efficiency can reduce prices in a beneficial way ( unless it spurs over-consumption or excess waste )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

just another piece in the jigsaw.

They always say, keep an eye on the labo(u)r market .

"....the percentage of people working second jobs on top of their primary full-time jobs is at a multidecade high. This underscores the disproportionate impact inflation has had on low and moderate wage earners. Yes, their wages have risen, but not enough to cover living expenses without driving for DoorDash on the side.

Source: QI Research​

"Then there is the growing number of layoffs. It started in the tech sector. Amazon has cut 27,000-plus workers since November 2022. Heavyweights like Google, Microsoft, Tesla, and Dell have all made significant cuts to their workforces this year.

"To hear of software developers being laid off would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Today those high-paying jobs may not be as secure. Finding new jobs at the same rate of compensation is proving difficult...."


.. and where are the new jobs being created? Not from innovation, or the great leap forward. And Debt funded,