ALD - Ampol Limited

[GreatPig]

Up about 6% this morning.

A little unusual for a stock that price.

Cheers,
GP

[I hold]

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: CTX - Caltex

With the US situation the world no longer has sufficient operating refineries to meet demand for petroleum products.

Yes, there is adequate crude from strategic reserves etc. But there simply is not enough operational refining capacity with so many idle refineries following the storm.

So either the world is about to cut fuel use, literally right now, or prices are going up until we do cut. There's just no way around it unless / until the refineries are back up and running. This could take quite a while. CTX is in the refining business so will be making $$$.

 

[slimtrader]

CTX

Any views on why CTX keeps falling even though oil the price has stabilised? This may be an opportunity to go short?

 

[Richard Willoughby]

Re: CTX - Caltex

my opinion....
ctx is overpriced, the last two years with crude price increases the inventory gains ctx reports as profit is only on paper and if crude falls it becomes a loss. i think last june report inventory gain was 80 million, this is because ctx have a massive supply of crude on hand and each report this is costed at the current price versus what it actually cost them. also last year they had a tax gain of approx 80million this year(june 05) they gained 20 million these were both one off gains. not trying to start an agrument i used to hold. i don't think ctx can ever pay a div that reflects the current sp. i could be wrong .
actually i'm trying to get my posts % up so i can enter the tipping competition. good luck

 

[RichKid]

Re: CTX - Caltex

A chart showing the breach of the recent supporting trend line. One Monster uptrend in the long term chart though.

 

[slimtrader]

Re: CTX - Caltex

Richkid,

Thanks for the graph. Does this mean we could possibly see retracement to $17?

 

[eMark]

Good evening!

I'm new to the forum.

I would like someones opinion on Caltex as of this week. What is happening? It's down to $17.80 from high $19's only a week ago.

I've just stumbled across this forum, and noticed the graph supplied and the last couple of posts re Caltex.

Interesting.

Cheers

eMark

 

[crackaton]

CTX is one of the most hyped stocks on the asx. I bought 5 years ago at 1.42$ when they were in trouble, then they did the fuel deal thing with woolies etc. I'm not really concerned what they do cause I can sell out any time and they make a divi.

They are still crooked as like all oil companies.

 

[Smurf1976]

They are still crooked as like all oil companies.

Strong words there. Anything to substantiate the claim? Are you suggesting that CTX acts dishonestly in some way or are you simply upset about petrol prices?

I can think of other industries where ordinary consumers are being ripped off on a scale far larger than their total expenditure on petrol in the first place so whatever any oil company may or may not be doing is a long way down the list IMO. And oil refining has been far less profitable than many other industries over the long term on a profit per $ of sales basis.

 

[GreatPig]

A possible inverse head and shoulders here.

If it keeps looking up next week, I might jump back in on this one.

Cheers,
GP

 

[RichKid]

A possible inverse head and shoulders here.

If it keeps looking up next week, I might jump back in on this one.

Cheers,
GP

Well spotted GP, I wonder if this is a wave B of an ABC correction on the weeklies? If not we're going straight up from the looks of it, approaching previous selling levels though.

 

[GreatPig]

Still pushing up strongly, and I'm back on it. H&S target around $23 to $24.

Bought Friday for $21.38.

Just in time for a Monday bloodbath probably...

GP

 

[michael_selway]

A possible inverse head and shoulders here.

If it keeps looking up next week, I might jump back in on this one.

Cheers,
GP

yeah was wondering why the rise in recent times

CTX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 220.2 144.9 168.4 169.1
DPS 46.0 82.0 102.5 104.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-12-06 144.9 15.0 -34.2%
Year Ending 30-12-07 168.4 12.9 16.2%

looks like it will have good franked dividend yield as time goes by, maybe less capex and aquisitions

thx

MS

 

[GreatPig]

Continuing to push up nicely. Now into blue sky territory.

Cheers,
GP

 

[michael_selway]

Continuing to push up nicely. Now into blue sky territory.

Cheers,
GP

yep thanks, do u think it can be sustained?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 220.2 148.7 175.7 169.1
DPS 46.0 82.0 104.3 104.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-12-06 148.7 15.2 -32.5%
Year Ending 30-12-07 175.7 12.8 18.2%

 

[GreatPig]

do u think it can be sustained?

From a fundamental point of view, I have no idea.

From a technical point of view, my target from the inverse head and shoulders is in the $23 to $24 range, but I'll just continue to hold it as long as it keeps going up.

It was a pretty broad H&S, over some months, so I think that's promising for the upside.

GP

 

[clayton4115]

do you think it will hit $30 by the end of the year? is it good buying at these levels?

 

[GreatPig]

From a TA point of view (mine in particular), the head and shoulders target of around $24 has already been met, and it's currently undergoing some consolidation. To me, this looks like it might be a small bearish triangle, so I'll be keeping a close eye on the price action next week for a possible sale.

I have no idea if or when it will reach $30.

Cheers,
GP

 

[GreatPig]

Volatility building up after its recent sideways movements. Currently down around $23.80. Seems like it's about to move out one way or another.

Personally I'm thinking down again, as most of the volume these last few days has been on the down days.

Cheers,
GP

 

[clayton4115]

i wonder why its down so much today,

maybe because of the LPG gas announcement from the govt?