ALD - Ampol Limited

[michael_selway]

i wonder why its down so much today,

maybe because of the LPG gas announcement from the govt?

Maybe this:

Caltex Australia Ltd., the nation's biggest oil refiner, slumped A$1.18, or 4.8 percent, to A$23.52. The company's rival BP Plc, (BP LN), which has about 17 percent of the nation's retail market by volume, joined with Citibank, a Citigroup Inc. unit, to offer Australian motorists a discount on purchases at BP service stations in Australia.

thx

MS

http://www.smh.com.au/news/BUSINESS...eal-credit-card/2006/08/13/1155407662555.html

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Great Pig ........Do you still hold Caltex ?-bought in @$21.25 in late day trading.
I was eager to have at least one share connected to the oil sector,the sole listed refinery seems a medium risk compared to speculative exploration oil stocks.Any thoughts appreciated.

 

[Dutchy3]

For current holders ... a move through 2600 should now be reasonably expected

 

[Dutchy3]

Seemed to be confirmed today

 

[CanOz]

Anyone use weekly pivots on daily charts to look for reversals? Just wondering if if got the jist of it?

 

[vishalt]

Caltex under some heavy selling at the moment, and the profit outlook wasn't even that bad.

Wiped off by $5, at some key support levels now, this sell-off was way overdone in my opinion, perhaps a buying opportunity?

 

[mime]

Does anyone know if they lease the land which their service stations are on or do they own it? I recently bought this stock because I think it will rise back to it's heights.

 

[mime]

Does anyone know the effects of the high AUS dollar on this stock? They import crude and refine it so it should be positive.

 

[mime]

Come on. Surely someone has invested in this stock after it's massive tumble or a least has an opinion.

 

[wayneL]

Mime,

fwiw. All of the US oilers are being sold off as well in the face of rising oil prices. I'm struggling to find out why, but one commentator reckons the funds want CASH.

Not much info coming out though.

 

[Gurgler]

Well, at least one stocks commentator is recommending Caltex as a valued buy after the past week. Check out Aitken's comments in the attached Wordpad document, a copy from Eureka report released Friday 27th July.

The title is Charlie Aitkin's First XI (i.e. eleven stocks chosen from the S&P 100, that he feels are worthy of buying in these times of lowered prices).
Warning - it's couched in cricket jargon, so if you're not conversant with cricket, you might need to bone up on that first!

In the light of WayneL's remarks, I wonder whether the fear for oilers is well-founded. Anyone have any supportive evidence? I ask because like Mime, I was interested in getting into it for the longterm.

 

[Kauri]

Caltex caught my attention today, good volume, a solid bounce from the 50% fib and slightly better than average close. On wtach to see if it can go on with it.
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Smurf1976]

Caltex caught my attention today, good volume, a solid bounce from the 50% fib and slightly better than average close. On wtach to see if it can go on with it.
Cheers
.........Kauri

From a more fundamental perspective, CTX has held up amazingly well in the face of the outright crash in refining margins. It's hard to see the refining business getting much worse than it already has at least in the near term - only way is up?

 

[blinkau]

I have jumped onto this one and purchased a small parcel. Huntley's last report was recommending it a buy around the $23 level. Hopefully this should turn into a good 7+ year stock.

 

[michael_selway]

I have jumped onto this one and purchased a small parcel. Huntley's last report was recommending it a buy around the $23 level. Hopefully this should turn into a good 7+ year stock.

CTX loosk liek s steady stock from here on in

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 172.6 185.0 172.7 176.2
DPS 80.0 93.8 93.0 99.2

thx

MS

 

[blinkau]

How much more does everyone think this stock will fall? My next guess of support would be around $20.75? It seems to be edging down slightly every day over the past few days

 

[blaze87]

This is the FREE but incomplete information from FATS.....
would love it if any1 here acutally subscribes to FATS can fill us in..

Caltex's (CTX) stock price declined sharply in June following the release of earnings guidance that fell short of the market's lofty expectations, in part due to the strengthening Aussie dollar. This week we look at the result and consider the likely impact of continued Aussie dollar strength on the company's future results.

For the six months to 30 June 2007, the company generated a net replacement cost of sales operating profit (RCOP) of $255 million, matching the six months to 31 December 2006. This replacement cost measure adjusts for the impact of fluctuating crude oil prices, thereby affording a more accurate appraisal of management's performance.


Caltex is comprised of two core divisions, Refining and Marketing. Marketing promotes and sells Caltex products through a network of around 2000 service stations and accounts for around 40 percent of gross earnings.

Although sales volumes increased to 6.7 billion litres from 6.5 billion in the same period last year, increased competition weighed on the division's profitability.

Meanwhile, the larger Refining division, which we will focus on in today's article, purchases crude oil and converts it at the company's two refineries into petrol, diesel, jet fuel and other speciality products.

During the period, Caltex's refineries produced 5.4 billion litres of various fuels. The result fell short of the 5.6 billion litres produced in the prior six months due to planned maintenance shutdowns. For the full year to 31 December 2007 however, the refineries are on target to expand production by 7.8 percent to 11 billion litres.


The extent to which production flows through to earnings is largely determined by the refiner margin. The refiner margin is the difference between the cost of importing a barrel of crude oil and the cost of importing the barrel's equivalent of refined product.

As the chart below shows, while the refiner margin exhibits considerable volatility, the 2004 - 2006 average (as shown by the red lines) has been rising. Although, the margin appears to have stabilised so far in 2007


Source: Caltex
During the six months to 30 June, the refiner margin averaged US$10.74 per barrel, compared to US$9.76 in the same period last year.

However, the margin is quoted in US dollars. As a result, the deteriorating US dollar reduces the benefits of an expanding margin to the Refining division's Australian dollar denominated earnings.

In fact, Caltex estimates that the stronger Aussie dollar negatively impacted the Refining division's contribution to group earnings by $30 million for the period. Given our expectation of continued US dollar weakness, should we be concerned over Caltex's future profitability?

This story continues in the Fat Prophets Members area. To get the complete report, along with our current recommendation, join Fat Prophets today!

 

[vishalt]

This stock is taking a total beating, so what if the $A is strengthening?

By Buffets principals of buying fundamentally & visibly good businesses at low prices Caltex looks like a diamond in the rough, its still keeping its chunky dividends up and imo high fuel prices will eventually overcome the costs.

If I was a long term investor I'd buy it!

 

[mime]

I bought at around $24.5 and am feeling the sting. It seemed like a no brainer because the high dollar would increase profits jump profits and the inelastic revenue source. I guess I was wrong. I did see a report about the ACCC potentially taking the discount scheme away from them because it maybe anti completive so the fear of that maybe weighing on the share price.

 

[vishalt]

Well looking at the longterm chart, Caltex would have given $21 for every $1 you had since 2003, which is a stellar return, I think its just fallen out of favor of institutions for a bit now like Santos did, a few good pieces of news and defintely in the long run I'd think that Caltex would be a worthy asset.