ALD - Ampol Limited

[michael_selway]

Well looking at the longterm chart, Caltex would have given $21 for every $1 you had since 2003, which is a stellar return, I think its just fallen out of favor of institutions for a bit now like Santos did, a few good pieces of news and defintely in the long run I'd think that Caltex would be a worthy asset.

Hi looks like CTX will be quite steady for a while

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 172.6 181.2 166.7 171.5
DPS 80.0 91.8 89.7 98.0

thx

MS

 

[blaze87]

i bought on 24.06 . it was on a uptread back then...
anyways... hopefully the end of year annual report will wake all those smart money into CTX.....
i seemed to remember buffet's timeframe was 3 years..
its only been 2 months for me....

 

[blaze87]

when looking at a company such as caltex,
shl we look at the traditional measurement net profit on its balance sheet
or
shl we look at what the company measurement of its true value of net profit(RCOP)..

it says that This replacement cost(RCOP) measure adjusts for the impact of fluctuating crude oil prices, thereby affording a more accurate appraisal of management's performance and that the inclusion of the impact of exchange rate movements on the calculation of the inventory gain or loss does not change the company’s historical, or statutory, profit after tax. Further, there is no impact on the company’s cashflows as a result of the change.

it's strange for caltex... if u look at the earnings guidance(using the traditional/historical net profit) for the remaining of the year, it represents earnings growth of 18%-28%. the previous company 1 yr earnings growth was 12.7%

however if u look at the RCOP- which the company it represents only 4% to 16%. the previous company rcop earnings growth was 3%

which is a more accurate picture of the company? arGHHHH..

 

[blinkau]

Will be interesting to see where Caltex goes from here but most brokers seem to have a recommendation of $30 on it. Might be time to buy in under $20 but then again I thought that when it was $23

 

[blinkau]

Huntleys also has a target of around $30 on CTX

These are the only two iv seen, what are most other brokers recommending?

 

[vishalt]

Wow?

What is going on with Chevrontexaco Caltex!?

This is the lesson: NEVER short a stock with good fundamentals because it will bite you in the ass!

 

[J.C.]

Caltex down to about $18 now, anyone else thinking of entering in, now or soon? Looks promising after the enquiry results, i believe they were positive?

 

[DowJones]

I bought some CTX shares at mid 18's. It had a RSI that looked like the stock was due for some sort of bounce. It finished at 19.45 for the day.

The targets from the brokers are decent on the stock with most tagging Caltex as a BUY, despite the minor profit outlook downgrade.

 

[vishalt]

Brokers gave Caltex a buy? Wow, I wonder what they were thinking when the stock took off from $1 D:!

Caltex peaked at a 1600% return since 02 but its like bouncing around crazy lately, but I think it's a great long-term story - trusted brand, 50% owned by Chevron and the pop is only 21 million at the moment so with all the areas to come up in the future, they'll need more pumps! No brainer of a stock but its crazy volatile at the moment.

 

[DowJones]

The current Ageis view:

Recommendation: BUY 12m Target: $23.00

However a strong USD and higher oil prices work against CTX.

Im looking for a little more price action, then selling it off.

 

[blinkau]

Anyone else been hanging onto CTX? I should really have taken more notice on the downward trend on this its killing me!

Does anyone know why it is so low today at $12?

 

[grace]

Anyone else been hanging onto CTX? I should really have taken more notice on the downward trend on this its killing me!

Does anyone know why it is so low today at $12?

I'm holding this too. I see a lot of brokers have buys on this....well with the weakness in share price. This is a good company IMO...just being hurt by the strong AUS$.

As soon as I sell it will go up.....

 

[AnDy62]

Grace- You are right, a lot of brokers like this stock. It's refiner margins have been damaged by the interrelated issues of a high $A and the US's poor economy. I feel this is one to watch and would be a great buy if there are signs all is going back 'to normal'. Good luck with your holdings

 

[Muschu]

I have also noticed many buyer recommendations for the stock. I am a novice but the history of CTX would suggest that it is worthy of inclusion in a long-term portfolio. The international need for oil, including in China and India, will surely only increase? {if I'm wrong please tell me - I often am}. And repacement fues, if they evovle on a large scale, seem eons away. The current SP also seems attractive.
Your view, especially as a longer-term hold, would be appreciated.
Rick

 

[kyme]

I am an oil bull, think long term price only going one way. Does Caltex have any production assetts or only a oil refiner/retailer?. Without any production assetts a rising oil price would be only negative or at best neutral to Caltex share profitability.

 

[Muschu]

I am an oil bull, think long term price only going one way. Does Caltex have any production assetts or only a oil refiner/retailer?. Without any production assetts a rising oil price would be only negative or at best neutral to Caltex share profitability.

I get your point [I think] -- but what would explain the consistency of view in buy recommendations?
I've never looked, but is there any correlation between the SP of companies such as CTX and WPL?

 

[kyme]

Muschu, haven't researched Caltex as to whether a buy or not, just pointing out increasing oil price not necessarily an advantage to company as its an increase in costs to refiners/retailers that they have to try and pass on. In current political climate think pressure will be on Caltex not to increase its profit margin on fuel sales. Presumably reports recommending Caltex as a buy explain on what basis, increase in dividend, market share or whatever.
I wouldn't think comparing producers eg WPL to retailers not appropriate, consider that applies to any commodity not just energy.
I invest for long term only, my favourites in energy sector at moment, NXS, OEL, EXR.
Caltex seems to me more interest to people looking for regular dividends rather than those expecting large capital gains from future oil price.

 

[Sean K]

Chart view FWIW, non log.

May have found a bottom, with a higher low and high.

Red lines resistance.

Green circles possible breakout points.

 

[bigdog]

For some reason the market does not like Caltex today!!!!!!!!!

CTX $14.08 -$0.79 -5.31% high of $15.29 & low of $14.02 traded 946,016 shares $13,802,087 @ 08-Apr 12:26:22

 

[nick2fish]

Oh well they'll leave their cosy broker office get in their car, look at the fuel gauge and say ****... better juice up.