Hmmm, nearly everyone I've talked to thinks it will be much under $150.... More in the range of $100.... I tend to agree with them...
jancha, what's your analysis tell you of long term RP prices? What price 2011 and beyond?So who's nearly everyone & what qualifications do they have?
I'll be buying more if they drop down any further.
When RP was $90ish according to the World Bank, I believe MAK said their OPEX would be less than the current RP price...So who's nearly everyone & what qualifications do they have?
I'll be buying more if they drop down any further.
First and foremost, I am at a lost as to explain how your explanation is the only thing that we can "assume"!!!We recently discussed the Opex numbers MAK have produced over the past couple of years and I have to say that it's very disappointing that they have managed to start avoiding some actual numbers. What the heck does "Commercially confidential, but competitive" mean anyway. Surely this is price sensative information that the market should be privy too. How can a Capex estimate as part of a Scoping Study not be released? I'm at a loss in this regard. We can only assume that the figure is far above the previous plucks at around $150 tn.
Any other thoughts on this?
Your explanation is that if they tell everyone the Opex then buyers will adjust their contract prices? OK. lolFirst and foremost, I am at a lost as to explain how your explanation is the only thing that we can "assume"!!!
Secondly, understand that RP market is not transparent.
If MAK comes out and says it'll cost us $129.03 to put it on a boat at Darwin..... a buyer maybe more likely to offer, say, $134.03....
If the buyer doesn't know the opex (or, guesses, say, $150)... they may offer, say, $155.
$20/tonne * lots of tonnes = big difference to MAK.
Hell, even if the $ difference is only $1/tonne, that'll definitely add up over the life of the mine!
Your explanation is that if they tell everyone the Opex then buyers will adjust their contract prices? OK. lol
Perhaps I'm off track with what these figures were for. I thought MAK had comissioned some organisation to to conduct a study of a truck and rail option and they were producing a scoping study for them.Maybe not, but I would think it usually not advisable to release costing information into the public domain, where it can be accessed by customers and competitors to the detriment of the business.
HIGHLIGHTS
Minemakers and Australian Transport and Energy Corridor Ltd (“ATEC”) have signed an MOU covering a financial study of the economics of a 250km open access standard gauge rail link from the Wonarah Phosphate Project to near Tennant Creek.
ATEC will manage the study. Should the outcome of the study be positive, ATEC would manage the approvals process, financing and construction of the rail link.
The rail link would be expected to lower materially Minemakers’ operating costs and could potentially allow higher production output than the 3Mtpa limit otherwise set by road haulage.
Stage I of the study will be a desktop one and will be completed by 31 May
2009 and will include preliminary financial modelling. Minemakers will
contribute equally with ATEC towards the costs of completion of Stage 1 of
the study subject to Minemakers not being required to pay more than
$30,000.
Subject to Stage 1 outcomes, Stage II is planned to be a more detailed
assessment in preparation for a formal submission to governments for an
exclusive mandate to build and operate the rail link.
Work on the ATEC JV railway feasibility study continues. Preferred route alternatives have been identified and the first stage of the study should be completed shortly.
Operating Costs
Conservative early estimate of A$150/t with considerable room for reduction
To be optimised in the Feasibility Study – due to be completed September 2009
Industry analysts are predicting that benchmark Moroccan rock will sell for US$150/t FOB later this year and this is being used as the basis for the financial modelling in the Feasibility Study.
$30m for a feasability study?Feasibility Study
The Feasibility Study is now scheduled for delivery to Minemakers by the independent
consultancy, AMC Limited, in early May.
All-up costs of the evaluation of Wonarah from 2008 to completion of the Feasibility Study
will be about $28.4M.
I think that MAKs plans to produce Phosphate are now virtually dead.
Just had a quick scan through their quarterly out yesterday and read excuse after excuse before getting to this gem..
As we all know, the previous feasability studies on the DSO operation to truck the ore to TC and rail to Darwin had an opex of about $150/t.
It's unfeasable on a US$150/t FOB even if the AUD tanked back to 70c which is highly unlikely. In fact AUD is more likely going to parity, or even as high as $1.20.
$30m for a feasability study?
HUH?
I think the only two ways this will get to production now are if RP takes off again and establishes a base over $200 tn, or if a major with deep pockets and economy of scale takes them over with a long term vision. In the mean time they are just going to churn through cash doing feasability and feasability study.yes drummund was sunk when he slipped some truth in one announcement in relation to the phosphate prices many months back. he alluded to it all being dependant to on a recovery of phospate prices or such.
it was a definite change of tune anyway.
his phosphate empire looks destined to b undertaken by others, at a later date unless some large co-op like fonterra, ravensdown or such comes to his rescue.
who would keep drummond on tho.
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