AEV - Avenira Limited

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Kennas,

You shock me. You say that the market cap should be just a little higher implying a little higher than a 200 million market cap? To a newcomer that can sound a little misleading and can turn that person away without realising MAK's true potential as the market cap will be a heck of a lot higher than the current market cap in less than 2 years time for when production begins. There has been alot of discussion regarding this on other sites as you well and truly know and it is highly feasible that MAK will have a maket cap of well over 2 billion within 2 years and there has been educated dicussion about the share price going as high as $80+ dollars. This isn't a ramp but is just based on many factors that you would already know about. I'd be happy with a share price between $20-$30 however according to the pure economics of Wonarah alone it is highly likely that the figures will be substantially higher.

All the best

Champ

Hi Champ, Haven't been called 'shocking' for a while. Cheers.

Yes, I too have seen those 'fundamental' valuations, based on a number of assumptions which may, or may not be correct. The only thing I am comfortable saying is that Wonarah could make MAK much more valuable if it gets into production at the current RP prices. (see my comments about the $1b cashflow and inferrence to the MC) However, I recently saw a long term RP forecast by UBS (I think) that had it at $65. Please correct me if this is wrong, or you have another long term price. Any other long term plucks, have been just plucks. I don't think AD has even put a price on it has he? Just that it will stay 'high' or something equally as vague.

I am not being pessimistic Champ, just trying to remain calm. You've obviously been following the thread, you may have found me to be supporting this stock for some time.

If you can find those $80 fundamental valuations, happy for you to post them up here.

Cheers, kennas


PS, By a 'little higher' I was also been a bit tongue in cheek. Thought you may have guessed that due to my interest in the company.

 

[Evangeline]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Scientists are worried that our reserves of phosphorus will be depleted in 50 to 100 years if we do not start recycling (urine/waste) and using it in a more sustainable way. Phosphorus is essential in plant growth and hence food. Dana Cordell from the Institute of Sustainable Futures at UTS Sydney has written a very interesting thesis (google her + phosphorus). From a powerpoint at UTS:

You’ve heard of peak oil - meet peak P
> P (phosphorus) is essential for all life
> 90% of P demand is for food production
> key to food production, and therefore growth of society
> Projected use up 50% by 2025, up 100% by 2050
> Non-renewable! No substitute!
> At current rates, reserves depleted in 50-100yrs

This is actually a real worry to world food security. Note that projected use is growing dramatically...

I think that projection of RP prices going back to $65 a ton may be wishful thinking.

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Who knows where the share price is going...but I see MAKO on the Opes list so I'll be hanging out for them to come on sale....hope they have heaps!

 

[champ2003]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Who knows where the share price is going...but I see MAKO on the Opes list so I'll be hanging out for them to come on sale....hope they have heaps!

Hi Grace,

Apparently the Oppies were sold yesterday and were munched up by the market and no real negative effect took place. ANZ weren't major shareholders so probably didn't have that many options to sell. Even a couple of million would have been gone within a few hours.

All the best

Champ

 

[champ2003]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi Champ, Haven't been called 'shocking' for a while. Cheers.

Yes, I too have seen those 'fundamental' valuations, based on a number of assumptions which may, or may not be correct. The only thing I am comfortable saying is that Wonarah could make MAK much more valuable if it gets into production at the current RP prices. (see my comments about the $1b cashflow and inferrence to the MC) However, I recently saw a long term RP forecast by UBS (I think) that had it at $65. Please correct me if this is wrong, or you have another long term price. Any other long term plucks, have been just plucks. I don't think AD has even put a price on it has he? Just that it will stay 'high' or something equally as vague.

I am not being pessimistic Champ, just trying to remain calm. You've obviously been following the thread, you may have found me to be supporting this stock for some time.

If you can find those $80 fundamental valuations, happy for you to post them up here.

Cheers, kennas


PS, By a 'little higher' I was also been a bit tongue in cheek. Thought you may have guessed that due to my interest in the company.

Hi Kennas,

No real need for me to post any fundamental analysis in relation to MAK hitting $80 as that wasn't my target. I'll be happy with $20-$30 but i somehow think that it is going to go so much higher.

As for the long term price of phosphate. They have been saying the same thing about oil for years. When oil was at $70 they were talking about oil plummeting back down to the 20's again. Of course it never happened though. Same goes with phosphate IMO.

MAK is so much more than just phosphate so when you consider the upside potential with all of their other major projects the mind boggles. This also reduces the risk factor for MAK as it isn't a 1 project company and actually has multiple projects running. The other thing to consider is if the price of phosphate drops down after lets say 3-4 years MAK would have made so much money that they will be able to take over other companies if they choose( Another risk reducing factor)

All the best

Champ

 

[Evangeline]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

It's probably a good idea to keep an eye on the fertilizer report..DAP prices are still rising even from last week....and RP is a major component. If you go to the website just click on The Market and it will take you to downloadable reports:

http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/index.html

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Must be an ann out shortly on the commencement of drilling. Odd that we haven't had news from any of the other projects for some time. I suppose their priority is on Wonarah now while RP is hot.

Chart wise the target from the break up from that triangle/pennant was reached. (nice retrospective analysis kennas ), and with my crystal ball I see another forming somewhere between the blue lines, and then hopefully a continuation of the uptrend. If it does form, then the target may be the length of the pole, which is some target. Pure speculation of course, we need to wait and see how it pans out. Would be nice though.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Talk of fertiliser prices about the place.

No forecast, but peak of earnings in 2 years time. Should support the current explorers/developers for a while then.

Fertilizer stocks to see continued upward momentum - Merrill Lynch
Thursday, April 03, 2008; Posted: 01:03 PM


Fertilizer stocks will see continued upward momentum amid surging phosphate and potash prices, Merrill Lynch said Thursday.

In a note to clients, analyst Don Carson raised estimates and price objectives for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Mosaic Co., Agrium Inc. and CF Industries Holdings Inc. He placed a buy rating on all four stocks, as well as Terra Industries Inc., a nitrogen fertilizer producer.

Carson said the recent pullback in the fertilizer sector is a buying opportunity and that the peak for earnings per share for fertilizer producers is likely still a couple of years away.

He noted that with the exception of Terra Industries, his 2008 and 2009 earnings-per-share estimates were roughly 50% above consensus because of accelerated price momentum for phosphate and potash.

The greatest risk to the stocks would be a pullback in grain prices, he said. Potash has the best long-term fundamental outlook of the three primary fertilizer nutrients, with strong demand growth likely to continue.

The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) was up 3.7% at $56.01 on volume about 50% higher than the 30-day daily average.

Among the ETF's more heavily weighted components, Mosaic shares jumped 8.1% to $108.26, and Potash Corp. shares rose about 4.3% to $168.10, down from an earlier intraday record high of $169.33.

Agrium shares climbed 6.2% to $66.63, CF Industries shares rose 8.6% to $115.02, and the stock of Terra Industries rose 3.3% to $37.37.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Quarterly out and has a great summary of the quarter past and the work programs for the June quarter. Lots of news to come, hopefully they can maintain the momentum.

Of interest to me is that the Fraser Iron Project is classed as 'non core'. What the?? I bought this for the fe?? LOL

The Moina resource update was due this quarter. Either the labs are busy, or they've been too busy with Wonarah...They say in the ann that 'interim results are expected shortly'...

And the Fraser drilling plan and Tassie radiometrics were due this quarter too.

Hard to complain with the sp appreciation this quarter gone....

HIGHLIGHTS

WONARAH PHOSPHATE PROJECT
• Rock phosphate price is currently 7-8 times greater than it was a year ago.
• Pre-feasibility studies have begun and are on schedule.
• Drill programmes for resource definition and to obtain samples for
metallurgical testing leading to plant design start in early April.

TASMANIAN TIN AND TUNGSTEN
• Strongly increasing tin price favours early commitment to development
studies on at least one of the deposits.
• Portable assay equipment has been obtained for evaluating the potential for
by-product mineral production on each of the tin/tungsten deposits.
• Storey’s Creek and Aberfoyle re-assaying results are encouraging but
further work is required.

FRASER IRON PROJECT
• Interpretation of the Company’s detailed aeromagnetic survey has indicated
priority targets for drill follow-up.

MOINA FLUORSPAR AND POLYMETALLICS PROJECT
• Metallurgical evaluation is ongoing.

PLANNED WORK PROGRAMMES FOR THE JUNE QUARTER

Minemakers will focus on the following tasks in the June Quarter:

WONARAH PHOSPHATE
• Continuation of pre-feasibility studies.
• RC drilling to test the Main Zone of known mineralisation, and also the
underlying Quartz Breccia unit, with the aim of enabling new JORC compliant
resources to be independently estimated. The Arruwurra Prospect, which is
characterised by direct shipping grades at surface, will also be drilled out.
• Diamond drilling to obtain material for metallurgical testwork samples,
geotechnical studies and RC assay validation.
• Initiation of field environmental studies and hydrological studies.

MOINA FLUORSPAR AND POLYMETALLICS
• Continued metallurgical assessment.
• Broad spectrum assaying to ascertain the full potential of the mineralisation.
• Infill assay of all available drill core to provide the basis of new resource
estimates.

TASMANIAN TIN AND TUNGSTEN
• Multi element assaying of Mines Department drill core for the Storey’s Creek,
Aberfoyle, Royal George and Anchor deposits to determine the potential for
future polymetallic byproduct production, in addition to the tin and/or tungsten.

FRASER IRON
• Completion of interpretation of recently acquired aeromagnetic data.
• Drilling of “hot-spot” targets, subject to confirmation of drilling contractor
availability.
• Seeking joint venture partners for this valuable, but non-core, asset.

TASMANIAN URANIUM
• Follow-up of anomalies generated from the Company’s and the Mines
Department’s radiometric surveys flown in late 2007.

TAY-MUNGLINUP NICKEL, GOLD AND URANIUM
• Joint Venture Manager, Jutt Holdings Ltd, is expected to follow up the
radiometric and electromagnetic targets generated during the March Quarter
from its detailed airborne surveys. Drilling is to be planned.

 

[adamim1]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

This was on my watch list for a while. I was watching it at 28c, now i se its at 2.50. I'm kicking myself.

Is it still worthwhile to invest in MAK at the moment? Or has the train already left?

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

This was on my watch list for a while. I was watching it at 28c, now i se its at 2.50. I'm kicking myself.

Is it still worthwhile to invest in MAK at the moment? Or has the train already left?

I would also love to hear an answer to this. Have been watching the options since 5cents. Just didn't think that sought of rise was possible...
Risk with Wonorah - a drop in the price of rock phosphate - it has gone to rediculous levels!

 

[Markcoinoz]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi people,

This is a site that has pricing and history of fertilizers.

http://www.fertilizer-index.com/

Kennas, i like your avatar as well.

Good taste

I was pretty happy with the Quarterly.

The most important aspect is going forward.

From my perspective i thought the Arruwarra Prospect appears to be the most encouraging.

This is a snippet of what i put on another forum.

Arruwarra prospect.

Drilling as a priority
Potential near surface deposit
More economical
Possibility of DSO
Could defer construction of main processing plant
RC drilling in April

That to me was the obvious highlight.

If they are going to be bringing any of the Wonarah project forward to capture some of the market, then go for it.

Apart from the obvious bringing in immediate cashflow, there is every likelihood of securing further long term contracts as the main processing plant is being constructed.

IMO, that would place MAK in the best position possible.


Grace & Adamim1,

I entered the scene a bit late.
Will be a longer term holder rather than short term.

Therefore it doesn't bother me much to see the gyrations of MAK like today.
Daytraders might play it for a while and then move on. Thats the time to accumulate and sit tight imo. The D/T who don't have short term memory loss will be back

IMO, the price of Fertilizer will take care of itself.

The most important aspect that many investors tend to brush over is of course Management. Does management have what it takes to move it from being a S/C stock to a big one? I think they do.

What made Twiggy turn FMG into a multi billion dollar company?
I would suggest a few things.

1) He had a vision of where he was to where he wanted to be.
2) He positioned himself to be in the right place at the right time.
3) He used FMG as the vehicle and signed the deals along the way.
4) No production and yet he was able to clinch the deals.
5) He met each one of his objectives along the FMG timeline.

Number 5 is very important as it shows his credibility to make things happen.
Instos and Dealmakers love that.
IMO, FMG has nothing special in the way of Fe.
However, he was able to stitch up the deals.

Back to MAK.

If we have to wait till after the processing plant is constructed before anything happens i would be very concerned. However, the fact that management recognizes the window of opportunity now and not tomorrow by speeding up the Arruwarra Prospect for potential DSO shows to me that they think outside the square. They want to get it happening quickly.

IMO, this will lead to early contracts being signed which will move the shareprice north. As well, once the processing plant has finally been built it would pave the way for other longer term commissions.

The goal is to beat everyone else.
Thats where FMG excelled.

This is why i would prefer to sit on a company like this over the next 12 months and just see how good they are at meeting deadlines and moving forward. If they prove to be a great management team then why shouldn't we expect a high S/P. Afterall, there is a window of opportunity staring them in the face with great assets. No excuses in my book.

Equally, the reverse can happen if time lines are not met.
No good having great assets and tunnel vision management.

Management is tops in my book.


Cheers markcoinoz

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Thanks Markcoinoz. After todays move, I think we could be in for a little reversal in price. I am a little frightened about the price of rock coming off (ramping on another forum seems so related to Wonorah and not too much else!)
I would have preferred to buy in once the price of rock phosphate has stablilised. I suspect it might cool down after going 7x. After all, what other commodity has gone 7x in such a short time? That is the real risk to the stability of the share price I believe.

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Does anyone know the MC fully diluted at current prices.
My online broker says $134 million (not diluted though).
Per presentation the other day
at $1.50 = $163mill fully diluted

So does this mean sp $2.30 = $250 mc?

 

[Markcoinoz]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi Grace,

The Arruwarra prospect is still part of the Wonarah project.

So far the outcrops already drilled show >30%.
Reference of the Arruwarra prospect is shown in Figure 4 of the Report.

I don't know where Phosphate is heading in price especially from a week to week view except to know that there is currently becoming fairly clear that Rock Phosphate is in great demand. I think just like any other commodity it will hit a peak where farmers are no longer prepared to pay such a high price.
Farmers so far have had the luxury of passing on the cost rather than being squeezed as the pricetaker.

The underlying question is what other alternative do they have?

Nothing wrong with taking some profit of the table if you are unsure.

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi Grace,

I think just like any other commodity it will hit a peak where farmers are no longer prepared to pay such a high price.
Farmers so far have had the luxury of passing on the cost rather than being squeezed as the pricetaker.

Cheers markcoinoz

Not sure if I agree with you about the "luxury of passing on" bit in the past. If you adjust for cpi, the price we are getting for wheat is about half of the long term average (even with the recent spikes). We are farmers.

I could write an enclyopedia on this for you, but this thread is about minemakers. I don't own any of these yet, but I appreciate your comments on minemakers.

 

[kransky]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

fully diluted there are 106M shares or options...

so a stock price of 2.43 gives a market cap of $257M

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I heard from my taxi driver that he heard that there is only ~10 weeks supply of wheat left in the world

Crikey!
What ever happened to the Good Old Fashioned idea of having wheat etc stored in silos for a rainy day?

I decided to buy 2 loaves of bread today and freeze 1

BTW I used to grow a few plants under lights in my wardrobe in the 60's -90's as we all did in those days
and I was always amazed with the reception these plants gave to a little bit of Fertilizer

It was MAGIC


Safety at Sea is Parramount

Salute and Gods' speed
DYOR

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

So, MC now up to $257m.

The Wonarah scoping study completed last year had the project economic with RP at $100 tn. It's now around $350.

Here are the scoping study parameters from MAK:

EARLY FINANCIAL PARAMETERS:
1. FROM 2/07 INDEPENDENT STUDY
OPEX <AU$100/t
CAPEX AU$18M
2. ASSUME
OPEX RISE AU$100/t
CAPEX ALSO TO INCLUDE BFS AND ESCALATION AU$30-40M
3. CURRENT MOROCCO SALES
US$350-400/t FOB AU$400/t
4. FREIGHT COST ADVANTAGE TO ASIA AU$20-30/t
5. POTENTIAL MARGIN, AROUND AU$300/t
6. INITIAL TARGET 2-3 Mtpa
(2% of WORLD OUTPUT)
7. POTENTIAL GROSS CASHFLOW ±AU$1B PER ANNUM

Potential cash flow of $1b/yr within 2 years, and the current MC is $257m.

The big assumption remains that RP prices stay well above the projected opex of somewhere under $100/t for it to be economical. To be conservative I'd like to assume RP comes back to $150 in the near future, which gives them a margin of +$50/t * 2-3Mtpa = $100-150m profit a year. Give them a pe of 10 at it gives an indicative MC of $1 -1.5b. Currently $257, then add in the dilution for the capex.

Pretty general way of looking at it, but clearly has some room to move, as long as RP doesn't implode.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

BTW I used to grow a few plants under lights in my wardrobe in the 60's -90's as we all did in those days
and I was always amazed with the reception these plants gave to a little bit of Fertilizer

It was MAGIC

lol and exactly what kind of plants were these my friend? Sounds a little dodgey to me lol

From what I gather you were growing Marajuana in your house and every so often taking a dump on your crop to fertilize it :

These POO brigades are vital to the agricultural industry which is vital for food which is vital for survival so yeah its pretty safe to say they will come into focus given the every growing population