AEV - Avenira Limited

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Gday grace just a quick question, what happens if you dont buy for your farm, does that mean that you wont plant as much as usual? How would farmers cope by not using fertilizer, Can your costs be passed on? Thanks in advance PS I ask these questions as i myself own MAK shares and the story sounds to good to be true (and we know how that ends)

 

[champ2003]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

The price rises of rock phosphate have to be worrying farmers. We received a quote by text a couple of weeks ago of $1200 tonne ex Newcastle. Now we thought that was rediculous. That was before the rise above $200/tonne will flow through.

Just my opinion, but I do not think IPL will be able to pass on the same margins as usual. Farmers just can not afford to pay even more than current prices! As I have said before, we would not buy at $1200, let alone higher, which will come.

Some correction is needed. Demand will drop that is for certain.

Still think MAK is a good investment, although I haven't jumped aboard just yet.

Heard Andrew Drummond on ABC Country Hour (radio) last Wednesday chatting about the windfall gain Wonorah would be for NT government as well as people. Jobs, education, services etc.... He was very positive.

Grace you are talking about DAP here not the price of rock phosphate which is what MAK will be selling, unless there has been an emormous rise in the last 2 weeks rock phosphate is selling for $350 - $400.

Cheers!

Champ

 

[champ2003]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Some healthy consolidation going on now IMO, well needed. Went too hard too fast and attracted too many short term traders. Wonarah drill to commence at the start of April should maintain interest. Let's just hope there's a quick turn around in assays and they are along the lines of historic results, or better.

With Rock Phos at over $300tn, and Wonarah opex around $100tn, profit $200tn and likely to produce between 2-3 Mt a year = $400-500m profit. Current MC $150m.... Obviously, BIG assumption RP will stay high, and opex low.

I'm disappointed we haven't had news from the fe targets at Franklin after the aeromagnetics. Makes me assume they are poor. Also, the metalurgical test work from Moina is well overdue I think. I was expecting both these results in early March. I think they were due this quarter, so they've got a few days left I suppose.

Technically, I'm looking for a higher low now for some more confidence. Hopefully $1.25 was the bottom, but who knows in this crazy bear environment.

Kennas,

According to MAK's company presentation in Jan 08 they state that the metalurgical testwork for Moina will be completed in Mid May so we have a while to wait for that yet.

I think that you are talking about Frankland for the iron ore project aren't you(not Franklin?) They still need to drill the hot spots subject to rig availability.

Cheers!

Champ

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Kennas,

According to MAK's company presentation in Jan 08 they state that the metalurgical testwork for Moina will be completed in Mid May so we have a while to wait for that yet.

I think that you are talking about Frankland for the iron ore project aren't you(not Franklin?) They still need to drill the hot spots subject to rig availability.

Cheers!

Champ

Champ, thanks for the corrections. I was sure I saw something last year that said Moina was due early 08. Obviously missed that in the Jan pres. Just checking and their Dec pres said a resource estimate on Moina was planned for the 1st Qtr 08. Not sure if the delay in the metalergical test work will delay the resource update.

IRT Franklin, I was actually referring to Fraser Iron Ore, which includes West Southdown and Frankland River. Just got the name wrong. My understanding is that they were going to announce the aeromagnetic results and drilling plan when the aeromagnetics had been evaluated and plan devised. I'm expecting that before they start drilling. It was supposed to be done in Jan-Feb, as per their Jan pres.

The other ann should be the Tasmanian Gov aeromagnetics over NE Tassie, over the Castle Carey and TUU area, in search of Uranium targets...

Obviously still waiting on confirmation of Tungstan assays at Storey's Ck, and whether the Wolf Gang are going to proceed to full JV over the MOU.

Still plenty of news to come (hopefully good) to prov support in these bearish times...

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Grace you are talking about DAP here not the price of rock phosphate which is what MAK will be selling, unless there has been an emormous rise in the last 2 weeks rock phosphate is selling for $350 - $400.

Cheers!

Champ

Sorry, my first few lines was a bit misleading. I was talking about retail prices to farmers at $1200/tonne, not the price of rock phosphate.

 

[Fed23]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Can anyone give explaination why MAK was down today even thou the market was up?

Is it just profit takers selling? Or buyers that bought in at the high selling out?

 

[champ2003]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Champ, thanks for the corrections. I was sure I saw something last year that said Moina was due early 08. Obviously missed that in the Jan pres. Just checking and their Dec pres said a resource estimate on Moina was planned for the 1st Qtr 08. Not sure if the delay in the metalergical test work will delay the resource update.

IRT Franklin, I was actually referring to Fraser Iron Ore, which includes West Southdown and Frankland River. Just got the name wrong. My understanding is that they were going to announce the aeromagnetic results and drilling plan when the aeromagnetics had been evaluated and plan devised. I'm expecting that before they start drilling. It was supposed to be done in Jan-Feb, as per their Jan pres.

The other ann should be the Tasmanian Gov aeromagnetics over NE Tassie, over the Castle Carey and TUU area, in search of Uranium targets...

Obviously still waiting on confirmation of Tungstan assays at Storey's Ck, and whether the Wolf Gang are going to proceed to full JV over the MOU.

Still plenty of news to come (hopefully good) to prov support in these bearish times...

Kennas,

I definately agree in that there must be alot of announcements coming up soon. PLenty of things to excite the market over i'm sure. In regards to Moina i was just going off their Jan presentation project time table for Moina. Maybe they delayed it somewhat? Anyway it will be very interesting to see what infolds in the coming weeks.

Cheers!

Champ

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Can anyone give explaination why MAK was down today even thou the market was up?

Is it just profit takers selling? Or buyers that bought in at the high selling out?

Against the trend with IPL up 8% too. Even RWD was up 6%.

The market over and undershoots, and I think MAK overshot a bit. Rising from 20c to 2 bucks in a month or so's a bit steep, as had been commentated on. More consolidation I feel.

As I mentioned above I'm looking for support around $1.25 to keep me happy, more consolidation, and at sometime soon, some higher lows and highs to start a new uptrend.

Having said that, I think there's still some skeletons in the credit closset waiting to scare the bear.

 

[Evangeline]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Ann just out.......AMP is now a substantial shareholder with 5% of the stock. Hmmmm....whaddya know...I posted about that a couple of weeks ago....but my post was pulled...

Good news as the stock is going to stronger hands...less volatility. Anyone listen to the new BRR radio interview with AD today? A billion dollars in revenue per year if the RP price holds up and to all accounts it will for the next few years.

IPL presentation out today too.....check the section relating to their forecast for rock phosphate for the next couple of years....quite bullish to remain over $200 a ton in any case.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Great ramp from the MD, on Boardroom Radio yesterday saying that Wonarah could be producing cash flow of $1b a year when into production in just a couple of years time. Current MC is about $155m fully diluted. Sure there's going to be dilution for BFS and capex, but golly, if RP stays solid, which it's forecast to....

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Bit of a pennant forming here, looks likely to break up at this stage, but I think needs to break $1.75 for confirmation.

 

[Rockety]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

yeh thought the same as you Kennas, targeted entry price is at 1.8 with 1,5 as stop loss lvl. any idea when is the wonarah update due to come ?

 

[Rockety]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

neat, couldnt resist the urge to jump in sooner, bought some at 1,72 wasnt a bad call :d hope it does a nice little correction though

 

[jradical]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi All,

Bought MAK at $1.54 under two weeks ago at a pullback and it is currently trading at around $2.20. How much do you guys think this has left to run?

 

[Fed23]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Im pissed I sold mine early this morning thinking it would pull back as soon as it passed the $2 mark.

Im seating on the side line now as I dont know if it will retract in the coming week

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi All,

Bought MAK at $1.54 under two weeks ago at a pullback and it is currently trading at around $2.20. How much do you guys think this has left to run?

This is still an exploration company. Picking how far it has to run, or whatever, is fraught with danger and only encourages ramping.

Since you bought it at $1.54, what price did you think it was worth, or would be worth in the future?

Personally, I have only a limited idea of how to evaluate MAK on their prospective projects. What I can say is that if RP prices stay anywhere over $200/t in the coming few years, then MAK based just on Wonarah, should have a MC a little higher than it's present position, as has been discussed in the thread. How high? Too many factors to assume and best guess IMO.

I initially bought this for it's fe and sn potential.

 

[blehgg]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

This is still an exploration company. Picking how far it has to run, or whatever, is fraught with danger and only encourages ramping.

Since you bought it at $1.54, what price did you think it was worth, or would be worth in the future?

I thought there would be a wall at 1.70 and hope out.... obviously I was wrong, but the past months have been a bit of a rollarcoaster and I'm happy I took some profits after buyin in at 1.80 and seeing it drop to 1.35.... Glad I topped up

If everyone could pick the peaks then there would be 0% risk

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

If everyone could pick the peaks then there would be 0% risk

Yes, and the troughs as well. I looked at it very hard when it corrected back to $1.25 and wanted to top up a few but the credit bear scared me off. Getting harder and harder for new investors to take a punt here, IMO. It's just run so hard....hmmmm, been saying that since 30c.

 

[champ2003]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

This is still an exploration company. Picking how far it has to run, or whatever, is fraught with danger and only encourages ramping.

Since you bought it at $1.54, what price did you think it was worth, or would be worth in the future?

Personally, I have only a limited idea of how to evaluate MAK on their prospective projects. What I can say is that if RP prices stay anywhere over $200/t in the coming few years, then MAK based just on Wonarah, should have a MC a little higher than it's present position, as has been discussed in the thread. How high? Too many factors to assume and best guess IMO.

I initially bought this for it's fe and sn potential.

Kennas,

You shock me. You say that the market cap should be just a little higher implying a little higher than a 200 million market cap? To a newcomer that can sound a little misleading and can turn that person away without realising MAK's true potential as the market cap will be a heck of a lot higher than the current market cap in less than 2 years time for when production begins. There has been alot of discussion regarding this on other sites as you well and truly know and it is highly feasible that MAK will have a maket cap of well over 2 billion within 2 years and there has been educated dicussion about the share price going as high as $80+ dollars. This isn't a ramp but is just based on many factors that you would already know about. I'd be happy with a share price between $20-$30 however according to the pure economics of Wonarah alone it is highly likely that the figures will be substantially higher.

All the best

Champ

 

[jradical]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Originally Posted by kennas
Getting harder and harder for new investors to take a punt here, IMO.

I hear you on this one kennas. As a new investor it is hard to pick a stock that is worth taking as per my limited knowledge in this bearish market.