AEV - Avenira Limited

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

The reason it rocketted at 3pm is thats when the pros come out to play

IMHO the fetilizer market (or the poo brigade as yt calls it) has fantastic potential for future gains, google phosphate,grain shortage,food panic, and food riots for part of your research

I have and its quite scary

 

[adamim1]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

What other companies deal in phosphate, but are in a similar position as MAK, as in fairly low share price?

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

RWD potash

BON phosphate (africa)

STB aust

Please look at their web sites for your own research

 

[Rocket man]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

YEP its the big boys and when they start buying price moves quickly

RWD did same today up 15%

I am expecting a continuation of today for both MAK and RWD tomorrow .. history has shown prices of these stocks tend to move north continuously in waves then consolidate for a number of days ..

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

That pennant/flag is starting to take shape, but who's to say where it goes from here. Would like to see some support being formed above $2.00 to maintain the upward trend.

$2 seemed to have been support. Breaking up from this flag gives a target that is the length of the pole. Aroundabout. Like the other targets that were all met, by chance. Just probabilities of course.

Waiting for that next news.....

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Approaching that breakout point. It's just intra day, but an EOD breakthrough the previous resistance is bullish. Just a probability of course. Anything can and will happen.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Looks like a breakout to me Kenna on some pretty large volume,

looks MAKnifiscant to me :

Wheres the next target?

 

[adamim1]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Peaked today at 2.85.

Maybe break the $3 mark, that would be exciting. We might then see it consolidate back down to high $2 mark after that?

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Looks like a breakout to me Kenna on some pretty large volume,

looks MAKnifiscant to me :

Wheres the next target?

$10.00 is my first port of call

But I do reserve the right to Upgrade at my Leisure

Salute and Gods' speed

 

[Kimosabi]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Stock Market Investing 101, Lesson 115

When the Stock Market turns to ****, Invest in Poo...


..........................................

 

[Dezza]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Dow Futures down at the moment due to Merrill, Nokia, Pfizer...

Also might be a psychological barrier to close at or above $3....

But China locking in an export tax on fertilisers, so here's hoping!!

 

[adamim1]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Not much movement this morning. Fair few people trying to sell over $3. Has had a high at 2.95. Though maybe we'll get a 3pm boom like yesterday

 

[Markcoinoz]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

One for the fertilizer buffs.

57 pages

Current World Fertilizer Trends & Outlook to 2011/2012

ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/cwfto11.pdf

Good weekend reading.


Cheers markcoinoz

 

[Markcoinoz]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Bear in mind that this report has become obsolete given China has changed its export role.

The updated version will be the real nail cruncher.

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[Spineli]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Mr Drummond has suggested previously, production of 2-3Mtpa, when it eventually becomes a producer.

At US$350-400/t P2O5, this is worth between US$700m-US$1200m per year for MAK. Thats the sort of income (or more) US/Canadian PotashCorp is earning for each its Phosphate/Potash operations. If MAK were producing and selling at those rates now, how does that rate with a MC of A$203.66m (2.73*74.6m shareholders).

As an interesting point of comparison. I've read on this forum that FMG plans to start production at 35Mtpa. Mr Forrest wants to boost it to 100Mtpa in the near term. Even at 100Mtpa @$100/t that equates to $10bn revenue per year, with a current market cap in excess of $20bn. How does that compare with MAK's MC of $200m, with proposed production of 2-3Mtpa @ $350-400/t or US$700m-US$1200m per year.....

Having said that...have a look at RWD, "The current retail price for SOP is ca $800/tonne, giving the in-situ resource a value of ca $20 billion for Lake Disappointment", they are sitting on a MC of $90.75m...although they are planning to produce at ~200kt/a

and then there is IRC, which holds 13.87% of RWD...

With growing Chinese demand for agricultural products, increasing demand for biofuel which in turn increases demand for fertilizer - and hence phosphate, a circular game, I think that contrary to the above report which shows World Supply > World Demand, there is good opportunity for MAK as a long-term phosphate producer.



----------------------
This represents my view. Do your own analysis. I take no responsibility for the actions of others.

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Spineli

With growing Chinese demand for agricultural products, increasing demand for biofuel which in turn increases demand for fertilizer - and hence phosphate, a circular game, I think that contrary to the above report which shows World Supply > World Demand, there is good opportunity for MAK as a long-term phosphate producer.

I notice the worlds largest exporter of rock phosphate Morocco is ramping up production. How quickly they can do this will determine the price of rock phosphate in the future IMO. Currently they export 45-50% of the 29 million they mine - say 14 million tonne pa. How quickly can other exporters ramp up production?

If they can ramp up quickly, the price of rock phosphate may drop considerably before MAK gets off the ground. Does anyone know about the Morocco rock phosphate scene?

The answers to these questions will impact on whether MAK actually becomes a miner.

I believe that the involvement of a manufacturer of fertilizer (perhaps a JV with MAK) could remove a lot of risks. There would be many interested, but this would take more than 2010 to become a reality in my opinion. It would also be nice for for someone big to come in and build 230km of rail line! (after all, is a 460km round trip possible in the long term....just questions to be answered)

Just my two cents worth, and I'm happy to be proven wrong.

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

The middle eastern countrys that produce phosphate, have formed a loose cartell similar to opec, hence one of the reasons for the recent price increases

With such a dominent provider it probably wouldn,t be in their best interests to flood the market.

Remember that MAK is profitable at a lot less than current market prices for phospate

As for a joint venture i think that as soon as a completed jorc is confirmed (ie this year) a takeover or jv will have been discussed

China has now put a restriction on fertilizer exports and India has no rock phosphate producing grounds

 

[prawn_86]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Remember that MAK is profitable at a lot less than current market prices for phospate

Lets not get ahead of ourselves. MAK ISNT profitable at all yet, and wont be for some time. You have to remember they are still in exploration stage and there are a lot of things which could happen before they become a producer.

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

India has no rock phosphate producing grounds

India has just renewed contract for their needs with the Moroccon government as posted earlier in this thread.

World and regional potential
phosphate supply and demand
balances (thousand tonnes)

WORLD 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Capacity 43 130 45 215 45 928 46 999 49 299
Supply 37 000 38 461 39 672 41 112 43 299
P205 Fertilizer Consumption 40 444 41 490 42 552 43 557 44 605
H3P04 Ferti. Demand 31 521 32 338 33 166 34 164 34 988
Non-Fertiizer HeP04 Demand 5 092 5 216 5 290 5 364 5 438
Surplus (-Deficit) 2007/08 387 2008/09 907 2009/10 1 216 2010/11 1 584 2011/12 2 873

Sorry, the formatting is out, but the bottem line is important (estimated surplus of supply over demand of rock phosphate in thousands of tonnes going forward to 2011/12).

I think going on this us farmers are being taken for a ride!

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Fair call
Thought i was on the other forum

Still FMG isnt technically, profitable either?

And i think MAK is a little bit further than just at exploration stage

My enthusiasm for this stock does get ahead of me thou

dyor

all the best