AED - AED Oil

laurie · 22 October 2007

A lot of people followed the sheep today fair enough its their right to be wrong!
if people read the announcement properly "As water handling and gas lift facilities have not been fully commissioned,oil production levels will remain lower than initially forecast while works are being completed." and that during this period preliminary assessments suggest that the ongoing production rates are likely to be approximately 20,000 to 25,000 bopd. WHILE WORKS ARE BEING COMPLETED Those that sold today will be first to buy back in once project is fully commissioned BUT at what price

cheers laurie

brodion · 22 October 2007

laurie said:
A lot of people followed the sheep today fair enough its their right to be wrong!
if people read the announcement properly "As water handling and gas lift facilities have not been fully commissioned,oil production levels will remain lower than initially forecast while works are being completed." and that during this period preliminary assessments suggest that the ongoing production rates are likely to be approximately 20,000 to 25,000 bopd. WHILE WORKS ARE BEING COMPLETED Those that sold today will be first to buy back in once project is fully commissioned BUT at what price

cheers laurie

What Do u think.. up from here? The reaction was an overreaction!!!!!!!!!! Has anybody got an opinion?
church man

michael_selway · 22 October 2007

brodion said:
What Do u think.. up from here? The reaction was an overreaction!!!!!!!!!! Has anybody got an opinion?
church man

Hi short mine life is still an issue u think?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -18.2 195.5 164.2 147.0
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

Aargh! · 22 October 2007

darrenaf said:
I think basing share price solely on bopd is a very rough and incorrect way to value a company such as AED (although I can see the point you are making). There is a lot more to this company than what it's first wells are outputting in their first week of operation. Using your theory, if AED were putting out 3000bpd (10%) the sp should be around $1.50. Count me in for some of that action!

I used todays ups & downs to recover some of what was lost on opening. Still a great company with huge possibilities.

Never thought I'd be able to buy under $10 again.

I agree entirely with you darren and reiterate that the numbers I spat out were just quick and crude ballparks and don't include any real analysis or consideration of what AED has in its pipeline (no pun intended).
I think todays movement was a knee-jerk reaction and my holding my shares shows I'm confident on where AED is heading. I too did not expect to get the chance to buy under $10 as well.

sfx · 22 October 2007

Aargh! said:
....I think todays movement was a knee-jerk reaction and my holding my shares shows I'm confident on where AED is heading. I too did not expect to get the chance to buy under $10 as well.

$10 is a good time to buy in if AED continues to perform.

With regards to confidence, I also think that there are a few people out there who are holding out on selling due to taxation reasons, ie, those who are wanting to distinguish themselves as investors, rather than being a trader.

So who's holding out for the longer term, and who's in for the short term. Can we get some hands showing here?! :iamwithst

dale · 22 October 2007

sfx said:
$10 is a good time to buy in if AED continues to perform.

With regards to confidence, I also think that there are a few people out there who are holding out on selling due to taxation reasons, ie, those who are wanting to distinguish themselves as investors, rather than being a trader.

So who's holding out for the longer term, and who's in for the short term. Can we get some hands showing here?! :iamwithst

i'm in for the long term, at least 55 days until we see some black gold from the next line

cheers dale

jimski · 23 October 2007

dale said:
i'm in for the long term, at least 55 days until we see some black gold from the next line

cheers dale

I'm in for the long term too. I'm not greedy or wearing rose tinted specs but AED has a long way to go yet in my opinion. I agree with Laurie that todays action is short sighted by many who haven't properly understood the latest announcement ie. that this is a temporary glitch and nothing to panic about.

Santoro · 23 October 2007

sfx said:
$10 is a good time to buy in if AED continues to perform.

I'm in for the long term too. AED recently joined the ASX200, bit surprised by yesterdays reaction, but good time to buy some more. 20,000+ barrels a day a good position to be in with more to come.

Hoping to buy more today under 10. Maybe Imajica may get back in too....in any case I expect this one should close over 10 today....

bigdog · 23 October 2007

AED SP looking much better today currently +$0.32 +3.38%

AED $9.79 +$0.32 +3.38% with high of $9.96 and low $9.66 496,507 shares $4,868,389 @ 23-Oct 11:32:30

52-wk High $11.4000 was on 17-Oct-2007

bucko · 24 October 2007

This is my opinion:

People's fear about the unknown usually makes prices drop. August 2007 was a classic example when price dropped to just under $6.

Of course, I bought some at that price ($6) I just bought more after fear steps in once again. I also bought into the IPO because of the experience of the management team.

The oil has not gone away. It's premium grade oil. I'm in this for the long haul.

Bucko

jimski · 24 October 2007

bucko said:
This is my opinion:

People's fear about the unknown usually makes prices drop. August 2007 was a classic example when price dropped to just under $6.

Of course, I bought some at that price ($6) I just bought more after fear steps in once again. I also bought into the IPO because of the experience of the management team.

The oil has not gone away. It's premium grade oil. I'm in this for the long haul.

Bucko

Has anyone got a more detailed theory about dramatic retracing of today? Sure people fear the unknown but what are people afraid of with AED?

Aargh! · 24 October 2007

jimski said:
Has anyone got a more detailed theory about dramatic retracing of today? Sure people fear the unknown but what are people afraid of with AED?

I've been left scratching my head with this one as well. Intra-day low of $8.36 and finishing down 9.5% @ $8.60. About the only thing I can think of is a production problem with word leaking on the market. Otherwise I wouldn't have thought the reaction to Mondays announcement would still be dragging the SP down.

blablabla · 24 October 2007

Several factors may be unnerving investors in AED. The SP has toppled over a cliff with this week's flow rate news, and there may be many investors who are simply locking in profits after the recent good run. Of course if there is more bad news to come then to satisfy the ASX listing requirements it should be announced very soon. So - if there are no new announcements for a while this should be interpreted as good news with no reason to sell.

Other factors affecting all oil stocks today are the oil price is falling, the aus dollar is rising on the back of another probable interest rate rise (a rising aussie reduces profits), and futures are indicating another fall in USA markets tonight which would tend to pull the whole market down.

Lachlan6 · 24 October 2007

Just a quick technical post. AED is at a critical point at the moment, and has today hit an important juncture of support. Currently in a wave 3, its recent decline is a little deep, however did finish off the lows to be at the 61.8% level of the wave 2 lows to wave 3 highs, coupled with the previous resistance turned support from the July highs. Interesting, however it needs to stay above $8.09, to remain impulsive.

Santoro · 24 October 2007

Could be a blessing in disguise, thinking if this goes any further with no new ann's then this is a steal....I'll be selling all my other stock and getting in...this is good oil friends....the window of opportunity looks to be open....this could be based on fear and the unknown as AED is a new kid on the block...

jimski · 24 October 2007

Slightly off topic but there are some interesting parallels between AED and new African independent AFREN. Afren due for first oil end 2007 / early 2008.

Lets hope that today's slide is reversed tomorrow in the absence of bad news.

GREENS · 25 October 2007

GREENS said:
Laurie can I just say you work entirely on the fact that AED will have smooth transition to production, they have not even produced any oil and are as yet to prove themselves as producer (which is potentially a major concern). Many oil fields in recent times have struggled to achieve and maintain field production at their target levels. This is in no way stating that AED can’t achieve this, but is probably why it trades at a discount, because it has yet to prove its worth to the market as a producer. And yes if everything does go smoothly, then AED is a fundamentally undervalued oiler that will be generating considerably large cash flows. The company may even exceed expectations, who knows, but I think valuing a company without taking into consideration a more conservative view can be very misleading. What happens if oil falls to $40 a barrel next year? It’s probably more sensible to use $US70 a barrel this year and over the following years slowly trend towards a lower average prive (say $50) then find the PV of future cash flows and then see what value you get!

As I’ve stated previously, you should keep a level head in regards to AED and remember until subsequent quarterly reports can confirm constant mature production, that this stock is highly speculative, mainly because it has yet prove its worth to the marker as a producer. In theory it is a solid company with a bright future, but one must remember that the company is a one field wonder (at the moment) and has no production diversification to fall back on if problems arise and hence explains the drop in the share price from such an announcement. The easy money for the time being has been made in this company and any further gains in the foreseeable future rely on the ability of management to prove that the field can produce at constant rates above 20,000BOPD. Don’t take this as criticism of AED, as I personally like the companies outlook. If production comes good i.e. if it can only maintain production around 20,000-25,000BOPD then of course AED is fundamentally undervalued and picking up some stock around $8 is a bargain. Just though I’d bring some equality to the table!

Icharus · 27 October 2007

Oil prices hit record again in NYMEX trade finished 91.86/bbl
AUD/USD cross rate 91.80

AUD/bbl 100.06 + Tapis premium

AED was pumping 19000 bopd during commisioning phase this was taken from the two announcements dated 12th and 22nd at which approximate storage held was 110,000 and 300,000 resulting in 190,000 gained in a ten day period.

However before anyone starts slashing wrists just remember we do not know how often or restricted the flow rate was during this period.
A 25% restriction would be 25,000 bopd, a 35% restriction would be 30,000bopd.

That is the problem know one knows exactly what will be the flow rate and so the market is being valued with a pretty large discount for fear. Just like a week before it probably had a premium for greed.

By today AED has it's first oil shipment of 330,000bbls. With only 1 million barrels under contract so far (as announced) this will only take 35 days to fill at 19,000bopd. This means that AED should be able to price oil soon at the above levels.

Even at 20,000 bopd this will equate to 2 million a day or 700 million a year
@ 25,000 bopd ... 2.5 million/day .. 875 million a year (350 day year)

It all depends on where you think oil prices are headed. I suspect that the speculative hedge funds want to give 100USD/barrel a nudge but this is pure speculation. Although in saying this look at commodity markets over the last year or so and you will find a commodity bubble up and then fall only to be replaced by another. Nickel, Zinc, Copper, Uranium, Wheat, Oil?

I hope everyone has a better week next week

cheers Icharus

laurie · 27 October 2007

Icarus said:
Oil prices hit record again in NYMEX trade finished 91.86/bbl
AUD/USD cross rate 91.80

AUD/bbl 100.06 + Tapis premium

AED was pumping 19000 bopd during commisioning phase this was taken from the two announcements dated 12th and 22nd at which approximate storage held was 110,000 and 300,000 resulting in 190,000 gained in a ten day period.

However before anyone starts slashing wrists just remember we do not know how often or restricted the flow rate was during this period.
A 25% restriction would be 25,000 bopd, a 35% restriction would be 30,000bopd.

That is the problem know one knows exactly what will be the flow rate and so the market is being valued with a pretty large discount for fear. Just like a week before it probably had a premium for greed.

By today AED has it's first oil shipment of 330,000bbls. With only 1 million barrels under contract so far (as announced) this will only take 35 days to fill at 19,000bopd. This means that AED should be able to price oil soon at the above levels.

Even at 20,000 bopd this will equate to 2 million a day or 700 million a year
@ 25,000 bopd ... 2.5 million/day .. 875 million a year (350 day year)

It all depends on where you think oil prices are headed. I suspect that the speculative hedge funds want to give 100USD/barrel a nudge but this is pure speculation. Although in saying this look at commodity markets over the last year or so and you will find a commodity bubble up and then fall only to be replaced by another. Nickel, Zinc, Copper, Uranium, Wheat, Oil?

I hope everyone has a better week next week

cheers Icharus

Good post Icarus

cheers laurie

bigdog · 29 October 2007

SP is doing OK today currently +$0.32 +3.64% with high of $9.35

AED $9.10 +$0.32 +3.64% $high of $9.35 543,864 shares $4,950,116 @ 29-Oct 15:46:15

ASX ANN today

29/10/2007 Operations Update 29 October 2007
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00775863

Operations Update
Crude Offtake
The first crude cargo of 328,000 barrels was lifted from the Front Puffin FPSO on the weekend. The offloading to the Mayon Spirit trading tanker was achieved in very good time, taking just 15 hours. The offtake, which is a significant milestone for the Company was on schedule. Preliminary testing suggests that both quality and quantity are to specification. The API gravity for the Puffin Crude oil was calculated at 43.6 which correspond with the previously published API. Puffin crude oil sells at a premium to the APPI Tapis bench mark.

The plan forward is now to complete commissioning of the facility which was put on hold leading up to the offloading. Once commissioning has been completed, wells will be tested and oil production optimized. The next offtake is scheduled for mid November.

Drilling Update, Puffin-10
The Wilcraft drilling rig has been making excellent progress over the past week drilling Puffin-10 located in the Puffin South West. Drilling of the well is on schedule and is currently drilling at a depth of 2,003 m (MDRT). It is expected that the 9 5/8 casing point will be reached mid week.

Water depth at location is 84 m. The rotary table is 34.8 m above the sea level. All depths are reported as metres from the rotary table (MDRT) unless specified otherwise.

The primary objective of the well is to drill and complete a horizontal section in excess of 200 m of reservoir interval within the Upper Cretaceous (UK1a) sands. The well is expected take approximately 55 days in total to drill and is expected to be completed by mid December. Production from Puffin-10 will be directed through the Modec Venture (MV1) FPSO. Production from Puffin SW is expected to commence in the first half of 2008.

AED - AED Oil

laurie

brodion

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

Aargh!

sfx

dale

jimski

Santoro

bigdog

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bucko

jimski

Aargh!

blablabla

Lachlan6

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jimski

GREENS

Icharus

laurie

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