AED - AED Oil
- Thread starter lewstherin
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Got this article from another thread. What do you guy's think re the downgrade of AED?
Downgrades Continue In Market
FN Arena News - October 16 2007
By Greg Peel
As the local stock market has hit new highs, FNArena has specifically been following the recent spate of analyst downgrades of stock recommendations. From October 5 to 12, the count was 29 downgrades to 12 upgrades, and when only ASX 200 stocks are considered that count was 24 to 6.
After two more days trading, another 17 stocks have been downgraded by analysts, with 8 upgrades. Removing non-ASX 200 companies, the count is 11 to 5.
To summarise, overall down/upgrades since October 5 are running at 46:20 while the ASX 200 ratio is 35:11. Some stocks have been down/upgraded by more than one broker.
In almost every case, the main reason cited for the downgrade was a share price that had run too far beyond valuation. In almost every upgrade case the story was the same, only opposite.
New stocks to hit the downgrade team in the ASX 200 are AED Oil (AED), Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), Emeco Holdings ((EHL)), St George Bank ((SGB)), Westpac Bank ((WBC)) and Zinifex ((ZFX)). Outside the ASX 200 were AJ Lucas ((AJL)) and Treasury Group ((TRG)).
New stocks on the upgrade side are Crane Group ((CRG)), Metcash ((MTS)) and GWA International ((GWT)).
There were three downgrades and three upgrades for AGL Energy ((AGK)) this morning, meaning that stock came out neutral after a company specific profit downgrade and subsequent share price fall. Publishing & Broadcasting ((PBL)) downgrades continue following demerger uncertainty. The AED downgrade was anticipation of a lower oil price, while Macquarie put the sword to BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) yesterday. Citi has been responsible for today's bank downgrades in an overall review of valuations.
As the ASX 200 crosses into negative 1% territory again this afternoon, it is fair to say today has been the first down-day of any significance since the Fed interest rate cut. This has followed a similar session in the US where analysts there, too, are beginning to suggest a pullback might be healthy. The Australian rally has been fuelled mostly by stronger commodity prices, which in turn have been fuelled largely by a weaker US dollar. Analysts at GSJB Were note there is "an almost universally positive sentiment" towards the resource sector at present.
Universally held opinions are always dangerous.
Weres highlights a shift away from mature G7 economies and into emerging market economies. (The analysts say "and Australia", but given Australia's success is derived from emerging markets you might as well call it an EM as well.) Before today the Hang Seng is up 44% year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite 122%, and the ASX 200 Resources 52%.
In Australia, industrial valuations are now back in the "extreme" zone, notes Weres, with the resource sector trading at a PE of 15x compared to the long term industrial average of 14.7x. Resource stocks usually trade at much lower PEs than their industrial counterparts because of commodity price volatility. Australian stocks are currently being "priced for perfection", notes Weres, suggesting no risk is being built in at all.
While China looks scary at 23x, PE s are backed up by 21% expected earnings growth. Such growth expectation is not the case in Australia, where industrial PEs are at 17.2x (over the 14.7x average). The inflation-adjusted figure is 19.7x, which is even more alarming given inflation risk is increasing.
Small cap PEs are higher than large cap.
GSJB Were is advising a pullback to a Neutral stance on resource stocks.
Downgrades Continue In Market
FN Arena News - October 16 2007
By Greg Peel
As the local stock market has hit new highs, FNArena has specifically been following the recent spate of analyst downgrades of stock recommendations. From October 5 to 12, the count was 29 downgrades to 12 upgrades, and when only ASX 200 stocks are considered that count was 24 to 6.
After two more days trading, another 17 stocks have been downgraded by analysts, with 8 upgrades. Removing non-ASX 200 companies, the count is 11 to 5.
To summarise, overall down/upgrades since October 5 are running at 46:20 while the ASX 200 ratio is 35:11. Some stocks have been down/upgraded by more than one broker.
In almost every case, the main reason cited for the downgrade was a share price that had run too far beyond valuation. In almost every upgrade case the story was the same, only opposite.
New stocks to hit the downgrade team in the ASX 200 are AED Oil (AED), Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), Emeco Holdings ((EHL)), St George Bank ((SGB)), Westpac Bank ((WBC)) and Zinifex ((ZFX)). Outside the ASX 200 were AJ Lucas ((AJL)) and Treasury Group ((TRG)).
New stocks on the upgrade side are Crane Group ((CRG)), Metcash ((MTS)) and GWA International ((GWT)).
There were three downgrades and three upgrades for AGL Energy ((AGK)) this morning, meaning that stock came out neutral after a company specific profit downgrade and subsequent share price fall. Publishing & Broadcasting ((PBL)) downgrades continue following demerger uncertainty. The AED downgrade was anticipation of a lower oil price, while Macquarie put the sword to BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) yesterday. Citi has been responsible for today's bank downgrades in an overall review of valuations.
As the ASX 200 crosses into negative 1% territory again this afternoon, it is fair to say today has been the first down-day of any significance since the Fed interest rate cut. This has followed a similar session in the US where analysts there, too, are beginning to suggest a pullback might be healthy. The Australian rally has been fuelled mostly by stronger commodity prices, which in turn have been fuelled largely by a weaker US dollar. Analysts at GSJB Were note there is "an almost universally positive sentiment" towards the resource sector at present.
Universally held opinions are always dangerous.
Weres highlights a shift away from mature G7 economies and into emerging market economies. (The analysts say "and Australia", but given Australia's success is derived from emerging markets you might as well call it an EM as well.) Before today the Hang Seng is up 44% year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite 122%, and the ASX 200 Resources 52%.
In Australia, industrial valuations are now back in the "extreme" zone, notes Weres, with the resource sector trading at a PE of 15x compared to the long term industrial average of 14.7x. Resource stocks usually trade at much lower PEs than their industrial counterparts because of commodity price volatility. Australian stocks are currently being "priced for perfection", notes Weres, suggesting no risk is being built in at all.
While China looks scary at 23x, PE s are backed up by 21% expected earnings growth. Such growth expectation is not the case in Australia, where industrial PEs are at 17.2x (over the 14.7x average). The inflation-adjusted figure is 19.7x, which is even more alarming given inflation risk is increasing.
Small cap PEs are higher than large cap.
GSJB Were is advising a pullback to a Neutral stance on resource stocks.
bigdog
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AED share price did well today +$0.25 +2.33% and all time high of $10.98
AED $10.98 +$0.25 +2.33% 686,825 shares $7,466,277 @ 16-Oct 16:10:19
The price of oil also increased!
AED $10.98 +$0.25 +2.33% 686,825 shares $7,466,277 @ 16-Oct 16:10:19
The price of oil also increased!
Yeah, I don't take much heed of that article.. believe the behavior of the stock, not broker recommendations. They have a habit of being about as correct as anybody else's opinions.
Oil price is at a record high, and it may go further, and it may pull back to $US75 a barrel eventually. Either way AED should continue to make money at the current price. Don't forget AED's oil is Tapis grade, which commands a 5-10% premium above the regular crude price that is quoted.
Oil price is at a record high, and it may go further, and it may pull back to $US75 a barrel eventually. Either way AED should continue to make money at the current price. Don't forget AED's oil is Tapis grade, which commands a 5-10% premium above the regular crude price that is quoted.
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It just seems ludicrous to downgrade AED on the basis of Oil price. Oil hit $USD 86 last night in NY record high.
Another explanation could be that the broker has some institutional investors who do not have enough AED and since it now is in the S&P 200 are now required to have them. Lets tell the punters it is not a good story and we will buy on the down dip. Well not this bunny!!
Does anyone know who the analyst/broker is?
Cheers Icharus
Another explanation could be that the broker has some institutional investors who do not have enough AED and since it now is in the S&P 200 are now required to have them. Lets tell the punters it is not a good story and we will buy on the down dip. Well not this bunny!!
Does anyone know who the analyst/broker is?
Cheers Icharus
Here's a link to the 2006/2007 oil price chart (scroll down when you get to the page)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936
Also, a multitude of opinions to be found at the Oil Drum forum...
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3093
My own simplistic view is that weak USD coupled with increasing demand for oil from China/India will only see the upward price trend continue.
In any case the fundamentals are so good with AED and there are more milestone announcements on the horizon in regard to Puffin-10/Puffin SW, not to mention further exploration potential that this stock ought to continue to show real growth.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936
Also, a multitude of opinions to be found at the Oil Drum forum...
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3093
My own simplistic view is that weak USD coupled with increasing demand for oil from China/India will only see the upward price trend continue.
In any case the fundamentals are so good with AED and there are more milestone announcements on the horizon in regard to Puffin-10/Puffin SW, not to mention further exploration potential that this stock ought to continue to show real growth.
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Oil price up last night now at 87.51 nymex quote
AUD/USD spot down to 88.57
AUD price of 98.80 plus premium for Tappis grade
Go AED Go
cheers Icharus
AUD/USD spot down to 88.57
AUD price of 98.80 plus premium for Tappis grade
Go AED Go
cheers Icharus
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Hi,
I've been holding AED since the recent rally started, buying in at 8.80. I'm pretty tight with my stops and have been keeping a trailing stop of 10-15%.
Does anyone stick to to a stop here?
If so does anyone have a percentage or a dollar number in mind?
Cheers,
Julian
I've been holding AED since the recent rally started, buying in at 8.80. I'm pretty tight with my stops and have been keeping a trailing stop of 10-15%.
Does anyone stick to to a stop here?
If so does anyone have a percentage or a dollar number in mind?
Cheers,
Julian
AED share price tends to be prone to more intra-day volatility than other stocks - probably a good idea to give it a bit more room to move as this one still has a long way to run - with the other well coming on line in first half 2008 we will see 60000Bopd + I'm not even going to predict what the share price will do when this is confirmed
bigdog
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SP heading into blue skies with all time high today of $11.40 +$0.42 +3.83%
AED $11.40 +$0.42 +3.83% 736,778 shares $8,280,825 @ 17-Oct 16:10:15
The share price for the past month is up $3.36 or 43% with no speeding tickets!
Date------ Close Volume
17-Oct-07 11.40 736,778
16-Oct-07 10.98 686,825
15-Oct-07 10.73 529,196
12-Oct-07 10.55 1,961,515
11-Oct-07 10.46 1,004,197
10-Oct-07 9.98 446,740
09-Oct-07 9.97 417,615
08-Oct-07 10.23 431,052
05-Oct-07 10.03 592,372
04-Oct-07 9.41 270,741
03-Oct-07 9.50 247,333
02-Oct-07 9.51 638,827
01-Oct-07 9.80 413,808
28-Sep-07 8.85 536,269
27-Sep-07 8.50 525,218
26-Sep-07 8.50 328,488
25-Sep-07 8.26 432,569
24-Sep-07 8.30 403,552
21-Sep-07 8.38 599,127
20-Sep-07 8.15 470,408
19-Sep-07 7.90 578,197
18-Sep-07 7.62 414,689
AED $11.40 +$0.42 +3.83% 736,778 shares $8,280,825 @ 17-Oct 16:10:15
The share price for the past month is up $3.36 or 43% with no speeding tickets!
Date------ Close Volume
17-Oct-07 11.40 736,778
16-Oct-07 10.98 686,825
15-Oct-07 10.73 529,196
12-Oct-07 10.55 1,961,515
11-Oct-07 10.46 1,004,197
10-Oct-07 9.98 446,740
09-Oct-07 9.97 417,615
08-Oct-07 10.23 431,052
05-Oct-07 10.03 592,372
04-Oct-07 9.41 270,741
03-Oct-07 9.50 247,333
02-Oct-07 9.51 638,827
01-Oct-07 9.80 413,808
28-Sep-07 8.85 536,269
27-Sep-07 8.50 525,218
26-Sep-07 8.50 328,488
25-Sep-07 8.26 432,569
24-Sep-07 8.30 403,552
21-Sep-07 8.38 599,127
20-Sep-07 8.15 470,408
19-Sep-07 7.90 578,197
18-Sep-07 7.62 414,689
Charts don't get much sweeter than this.. on a very rough interpolation (which is of course only if the trend continues as is), we can expect about $12.50 by the end of the month, assuming the same rate of growth. Obviously if oil prices fall dramatically, you would expect AED to drop momentum somewhat, and probably break this trend.
The good thing is that the market depth is firming up on the buy side. Previously there were quite a few gaps which meant 5-10c falls. Now this is gone, it should mean more consistant movement.
I've just been keeping a running stop of about $1 buffer as imaj says there has been some intraday volatility. Been in since $7.75
The good thing is that the market depth is firming up on the buy side. Previously there were quite a few gaps which meant 5-10c falls. Now this is gone, it should mean more consistant movement.
I've just been keeping a running stop of about $1 buffer as imaj says there has been some intraday volatility. Been in since $7.75
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bigdog
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I was in AED Oil in Dec 2006 at $4.61 and LOL
This was my wife's hairdresser's tip!!
LOL; go AED.............
Sean K
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I'm in at 1.80
Wish in retrospect I had re-mortgaged my house, sold my wife to slave traders and my dog to dog eaters. Just didn't buy enough back then but what I bought certainly is some reasonable consolation now....
LOL. I thought the same thing about EISA when I bought in 99' at $1.00 and it went to $4.00 in a few weeks. At the time it was a sure thing. It then dived to 20 cents and went into administration.....Croesus Mining was another sure thing I had some money in.
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Hey Jimski, My wife read your post was horrified by the selling the dog to dog eaters..................but not wife to slave traders.............hmmmm might sell wife to slave traders when next needing cash
BTW some shares do have spectacular multiyear rises and keep them some examples are CTX 2.40 to 23.20, Shl 1.80 to 16.60(took ten years).
It is only a matter of fundamentals.
The fundamentals for AED are approx 30000 bopd at Tapis grade which at current prices means $3,000,000 per day revenue or a $1bn on a 334 day continuous flow.
Bought more yesterday I personally still think this is cheap but please do your own research and thankyou for those that have submitted to this thread I did not know about AED until reading this thread a few months ago
cheers Icharus
BTW some shares do have spectacular multiyear rises and keep them some examples are CTX 2.40 to 23.20, Shl 1.80 to 16.60(took ten years).
It is only a matter of fundamentals.
The fundamentals for AED are approx 30000 bopd at Tapis grade which at current prices means $3,000,000 per day revenue or a $1bn on a 334 day continuous flow.
Bought more yesterday I personally still think this is cheap but please do your own research and thankyou for those that have submitted to this thread I did not know about AED until reading this thread a few months ago
cheers Icharus
I would hardly associate those dogs with AED - different kettle of fish entirely
a billion in oil revenue a year is nothing to be sneezed at!
