AED - AED Oil

[Sean K]

I would hardly associate those dogs with AED - different kettle of fish entirely

a billion in oil revenue a year is nothing to be sneezed at!

Yes, just making the point that nothing is a sure thing. The list of failures on buy recommendations is a long one.

 

[nizar]

Yes, just making the point that nothing is a sure thing. The list of failures on buy recommendations is a long one.

Yeh I agree.
In that case, Gekko probably wouldn't touch this, as he only bets on sure things. LOL

 

[imajica]

point taken kennas, there is always an element of risk with the market -however you must agree that the element of risk associated with AED has been reduced with the advent of production.

kennas, just out of interest, are you holding AED at the moment?

 

[Sean K]

point taken kennas, there is always an element of risk with the market -however you must agree that the element of risk associated with AED has been reduced with the advent of production.

kennas, just out of interest, are you holding AED at the moment?

AED has obviously been sensational. Well done to you guys holding long term. I've held NWE for less reward, but it's still been ok.

 

[sfx]

Considering NWE was following AED for some time, albeit lagged, it seems to have dogged out.

Perhaps everyone is waiting for proceeds to filter down to NWE, then after the accounts are released, and NWE is actually making money, NWE might launch from there. I think that there is a lack of publicity for NWE, which doesn't help.

Also, on another note - what does everyone think about AED's communications !? I mean with regards to the format they use to release announcements to the market....

I have seen some brillant communications from the likes of BPT, AMU and other oilers out there, and it has all the info of what they're doing ready to hand, ie, covers Drilling Target depth, when drilling commenced, target completion date, % breakup of the operator and other backers etc, etc....

I think AED can do better in this area, and make the info more presentable. These aesthetics can only lead to a better upside.

Comments?!

 

[jimski]

Re AED commnications - I don't hold any other oil stocks so tough to make a comparison but I have all kinds of other companies and I would say that AED does a pretty good job. Most important to me is that the get the information out there without seeming to sit on it and that they communicate with apparent regularity. Nevertheless, if they can improve and it would have a positive effect in general perhaps they should work on it.

 

[Icharus]

Oil up nymex trade 89.47 Dollar up 89.62
$AUD 99.83/barrel +Tapis premium above nymex
by memory AED had only sold forward 1 million barrels approx only 33 days worth of production the rest should then be able to be sold spot at these type of prices

cheers Icharus

 

[dj_420]

Considering NWE was following AED for some time, albeit lagged, it seems to have dogged out.

Perhaps everyone is waiting for proceeds to filter down to NWE, then after the accounts are released, and NWE is actually making money, NWE might launch from there. I think that there is a lack of publicity for NWE, which doesn't help.

Also, on another note - what does everyone think about AED's communications !? I mean with regards to the format they use to release announcements to the market....

I have seen some brillant communications from the likes of BPT, AMU and other oilers out there, and it has all the info of what they're doing ready to hand, ie, covers Drilling Target depth, when drilling commenced, target completion date, % breakup of the operator and other backers etc, etc....

I think AED can do better in this area, and make the info more presentable. These aesthetics can only lead to a better upside.

Comments?!

I suppose it depends what the company is involved in. I guess for oilers they need to have more communication regarding drill targets, flow rates etc. Been the only oiler I hold I will say the lack of news does not worry me.

They have been communicating to the market when needed. A lot of mgt in various companies feel that they dont have the need to overcommunicate to market as it could be seen as trying to hype up a company.

AED puts out more ann than many of my other companies, which I must say are few and far in between.

 

[Icharus]

Oil down 88.60 nymex quote AUD/USD 89.05
AUD oil price 99.49 plus tapis premium
Have a good weekend everyone

Cheers Icharus

 

[imajica]

source: http://www.subseaiq.com/News/Articles/200710/Sea_Production_s_FPSO_Solid_at_Puffin_Fi_6528.aspx


Sea Production's FPSO Solid at Puffin Field

by Sea Production
Monday, October 15, 2007


Sea Production's FPSO Front Puffin has commenced production in the Puffin field located in the Timor Sea off the coast of northwest Australia.
First oil was achieved on October 6, and by October 12 the Front Puffin was technically and contractually accepted by the oil company following final acceptance tests. During the test period the vessel produced 27,000 barrels per day from two wells.

Sea Production has been responsible for the engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning of Front Puffin, and this is the first conversion project that the company has undertaken. The vessel was converted at Keppel Shipyard in Singapore.

FPSO Front Puffin has a storage capacity of 650,000 barrels and is capable of processing up to 30,000 barrels of oil and 20,000 barrels of water per day. The gas lift capacity is 6 MMcf/d, and the vessel is fitted with an APL/FRAMO turret.

FPSO Front Puffin has been on hire since June 5 2007, and the focus is now on maintaining safe and stable production.

 

[Icharus]

ASX Announcement today "General Update"
330,000 stb's produced by 27thOct
Preliminary production rates likely in the range 20-25,000 bopd
Water Cut 12%.
Still some teething problems works to be completed within 2 weeks

 

[Aargh!]

SP heading south rapidly after announcement.............
Last 9.700 Change -1.280 Percent Change -11.66

 

[chops_a_must]

SP heading south rapidly after announcement.............
Last 9.700 Change -1.280 Percent Change -11.66

I don't think the market liked the advice that the production rates are going to be about 20-25000 bpd. Pretty bad timing to announce a production cut by a third. Should see this one in the low 9s soon. A key fib level is there, and a bit of support, will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[imajica]

a very disappointing day for AED holders

sadly, I am no longer one of them - sold out at $10 for a 30% profit

will look again when their new well comes online

 

[bigdog]

The AED share price was hammered today!!

SP was down $2.09 to $8.89

Currently SP $9.40 -$1.58 -14.39% high of $10.90 and low of $8.89 1,735,250 shares $17,377,307 @ 22-Oct 15:03:44

 

[jimski]

Price action today is surely not all negative? Volume has been very high. Fundamentals remain the same. Production for Puffin 10 due in first half of next year. A few weeks to address this 'blip' and we should be settled again. Am I missing something?

 

[boff]

I had an guaranteed stop kick in at $10.39 this morning locking in a 20% SP gain for me. I bought back at $9.20 this afternoon.

Did anyone else see today as a buying opportunity? It's hard to stay detached when you see your profit bouncing up and down like - what a rollercoaster today was!!

 

[CanOz]

I had an guaranteed stop kick in at $10.39 this morning locking in a 20% SP gain for me. I bought back at $9.20 this afternoon.

Did anyone else see today as a buying opportunity? It's hard to stay detached when you see your profit bouncing up and down like - what a rollercoaster today was!!

Interesting Boff, used a stop and then bought back in? So you are speculating that you missed most of the drop and the price will rise again?

Good luck, i hope it works out for you?

Cheers,

 

[Aargh!]

I had an guaranteed stop kick in at $10.39 this morning locking in a 20% SP gain for me. I bought back at $9.20 this afternoon.

Did anyone else see today as a buying opportunity? It's hard to stay detached when you see your profit bouncing up and down like - what a rollercoaster today was!!

I didn't use any stops so today wiped out some profits (still up a little over 30% still).
I did look at this as a buy opportunity (very crudely) but chose not to after having a look at the potential reduction in recovery rates announced today.
Based on $11.50 SP (close to where it was recently) and the expected flow rates of 30,000 bpd:
Worst case 20,000bpd = 66% of target giving $7.6 SP
Best case 25,000bpd = 84% of target giving $9.70 SP
The next few days should paint a clearer picture.

 

[darrenaf]

I didn't use any stops so today wiped out some profits (still up a little over 30% still).
I did look at this as a buy opportunity (very crudely) but chose not to after having a look at the potential reduction in recovery rates announced today.
Based on $11.50 SP (close to where it was recently) and the expected flow rates of 30,000 bpd:
Worst case 20,000bpd = 66% of target giving $7.6 SP
Best case 25,000bpd = 84% of target giving $9.70 SP
The next few days should paint a clearer picture.

I think basing share price solely on bopd is a very rough and incorrect way to value a company such as AED (although I can see the point you are making). There is a lot more to this company than what it's first wells are outputting in their first week of operation. Using your theory, if AED were putting out 3000bpd (10%) the sp should be around $1.50. Count me in for some of that action!

I used todays ups & downs to recover some of what was lost on opening. Still a great company with huge possibilities.

Never thought I'd be able to buy under $10 again.