ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Evangeline]

Those 100k sells just kept on coming this afternoon. Looked to be the one seller - as soon as he sold one lot he just kept loading on another lot. Hope nothing is amiss.

Perhaps it is the hurricane making holders nervous. God knows what more delays it will cause!

Eva

 

[Agentm]

the edwards is not on the agenda at the moment..

just the austin chalks..

XTO produce from the chalks, you can pull up the data from the RRC.

Its the meeks well that pioneer put in a little while back found the suagrkane too thats making it interesting.

This field is quite big, we have all the prospective acreages, the likes of XTO and Pioneer have looked at the fringes..

The key to this play is horizontal wells producing commercially, nothing more nothing less, and as EME is not declaring the well is at TD, and not releasing to the market what they found in the horizontal, then there is little anyone can to get any understandings on horizontals until SL2 is completed.

Its not likely TCEI is going to drill this horizontal well if Kunde 3 was going to be a failure, they have in the last week ordered the rig on site and its now being constructed at SL2.. I am certain the kunde 3 news is vital to the success of the area, and if there was any doubt, or failure at kunde 3, then they would be testing SL1 before they even got the SL2 well up and running.

i am of the view the operations at sugarkane are looking past the likelyhood of drilling success, i think they are of the mindset that they have proven the horizontals will be fine, and its really down to getting the second well in and tested as quick as possible, then once its proven the play is productibe at kunde 3 and at sugarloaf 2, then they will go on with the 16 well program..

all imho and dyor..

 

[chance fate]

for what it's worth my theory on the selling is punters taking a final round of profit before there's no escape - could stand on the sidelines and just wait for the results then get in and avoid the risk... hope i'm wrong but don't reckon there's going to be much upward movement pre-results now - tho' reckon EKA in particular is cheap....

Eva... reckon Dean is a double edged sword... could impact oil production/refineries and drive oil prices higher or disrupt SL operations giving delays... looks like the trajectory is well south of our beloved investment at this stage tho' so don't think there's much to worry about there except some possible heavy rainfall as the storm dies out once it strikes Mexico...

 

[Agentm]

for what it's worth my theory on the selling is punters taking a final round of profit before there's no escape - could stand on the sidelines and just wait for the results then get in and avoid the risk... hope i'm wrong but don't reckon there's going to be much upward movement pre-results now - tho' reckon EKA in particular is cheap....

the selling has been on all three jvp's, could be the same investor or a bunch that are getting phone calls on margins???

and may be a bit of what you say and bit of the other..

also, some investors came in at the .70 region, could be a final opportunity to turn over trades and run a loss before the big upswings in the sp in the near term?? i mean we are about to get filthy rich, so if you came in at dec 06 you could be clever and offset some loss against the massive taxes we are all facing in the near future. (cant do that myself as my averages are way way down from this price)

just a thought..


as i keep saying,, fundamentals dont change.

the gas and liquids are not going anywhere!!

major oil company, conocophillips.
tens of millions many times over invested easy...

the play extends:
West as far as meeks, possibly further??
North as far as XTO as they are producing from the chalks
South???
East.. yep, you guessed it 20,000 lovely acres.. and we have it all!!

170 bcf!!! if you want to believe it you can, but i hold for what i believe is many many times that.. and each well will unlock more and more of the potential of this play..

as i see more leases going in from TCEI, i feel the delays are due to stop and action about to begin

good luck to those selling, and remember those shares are being snapped up very very quickly..

all imho and dyor

 

[cathald1]

had a conversation earlier on today with and old colleague from my dupont days yes I dug some one up who confirmed all the suspicions on the SL and was suprised that an irish person was asking him about Sl and thought it was in company secret only...... maybe americans are more insular than i had ever imagined

 

[Agentm]

insular!!

paranoid more like it!

so what suspicions did you have on sugarloaf to want to ring dupont? (i thought dupont were textiles??)

 

[cathald1]

dupont conoco as in the biggest merger that ever happened way back in 81 was dissolved in early 2000 but loads of contacts still there

 

[Agentm]

dupont conoco as in the biggest merger that ever happened way back in 81 was dissolved in early 2000 but loads of contacts still there

about 2000 cp became interested in the area.. in 2002 they did extensive work there in live oak and karnes...

so are you able to elaborate what your suspicions were??

for instance my suspicions on the sugarkane is that conocophillips are not looking at a 170bcf play but potentially multi tcf.. (as i cant imagine a multinational giant like them wasting years in time and vast amounts of cash and resources on a high risk play like sugarkane unless they had some idea about it not being such a high risk)

 

[cathald1]

no they wouldn't go after anything small
largest gas find since the 50's possible bigger than the Exxon/mobil find in the gulf inthe 70's was mentioned
a few other things as well but is just heresay.

 

[Agentm]

no they wouldn't go after anything small
largest gas find since the 50's possible bigger than the Exxon/mobil find in the gulf inthe 70's was mentioned
a few other things as well but is just heresay.

ohh.. well i guess its just not worth hanging in for then..

i am dissappointed, i was expecting something like the Ghawar Field, oh well,, maybe it will turn into something worth while, who knows???

 

[Evangeline]

I have never had a stock which was so rife with rumours and intrigue as this one. Makes me tempted to scrape together my last few pennies and get a few more at 53c!

If nothing else it would all make a great screenplay.

Eva

 

[rolisatosser]

several weeks ago lotire/cathald told me he had good contacts regarding another oil&gas stock. He told me privately a little about those contacts and the very priviledged position they were in.

one day he spoke to me privately and also posted a cryptic comment on a bulletin board. It was an out of context post which made sense when the rns came out several hours later in the day. He kept it cryptic on the board because he dare not post the true content because hisontact was also aware of the bulletin board. But it proved to me , not that I doubted, that his contact is very close to the info. I choose to take this info on the sugars, plus the other he has told me that he has not posted, at face value.
Thanks mate, and don't forget me when the touch paper is lit over at the other place.

if anyone wants me to explain and show proof that he was ahead of the rns I can provide a link.
rolisatosser@hotmail.co.uk
please don't copy this to a uk board.

 

[cathald1]

Rol
I think(hope) they were taking the PISS as being a little sarcastic...... making a call re others hope to have some info soon lets just say i am doing a bit of horse trading..will let you know

DOh just twiged why the sarcism............ re my comments from Wilmington.... biggest find stateside not worldwide since 50's but again this is just heresay from contacts that were in the business some time ago.
C

 

[Agentm]

Rol
I think(hope) they were taking the PISS as being a little sarcastic...... making a call re others hope to have some info soon lets just say i am doing a bit of horse trading..will let you know

DOh just twiged why the sarcism............ re my comments from Wilmington.... biggest find stateside not worldwide since 50's but again this is just heresay from contacts that were in the business some time ago.
C

ok cathald..

if your saying the posts re the conocophillips contact was genuine, i will respect that. My concern about the post and the reason for disbelief is that this board is well read, and in particular this thread, and its possible you may be putting your contact in a position of discomfort. but Conocophillips is a big organization..

i have heard some staggering stories about the sugarkane, your story is certainly not the first one i have heard, and the biggest find story has been told to me from various contacts. I agree with the sentiment, the area is unique, and the possibilty of multi tcf is absolutely on the agenda, its now down to the Kunde 3 and SL 2 to prove the theory right.

I am confident that Kunde 3 is not a lost well, and the 60 odd days of drilling has been done to carefully manage and ensure success and learn everythiung they can from the geology. conocophillips are never in a rush, this project is not on a rush order, they will put wells on ice for years and have done so, absolutely no problem..

SL1 (the test well) will confirm the field, its a stepping stone.

I look at it this way, and this is entirely my view and could be completely wrong..

conocophillips puts in 2 test wells called Kunde 1 and Kunde 2 on the west side, specificly targeting the the austin chalks and edwards,

on the east Sugarloaf 1 is drilled as a test well. to test the upper section and the lower sands.

both camps have similar costs, both sides share the knowledge.

After the test wells were completed, with kunde 2 being lost, they both put in a step out well with 5000 foot horizontals. SL2 and Kunde 3.

next phase is the massive ongoing drilling program.

The underlying significance of the success of the 1 tcf or multi tcf or whatever it is, relies absolutely on the geology and the success of the horizontals..

i am with you on this one rolitosser, lets keep this on the aussie boards..

 

[Agentm]

i noticed another 24 odd new leases for karnes county again overnight, no TCEI ones..

just was looking at ALL LEASES (including TCEI) in live oak and karnes.. you can see the areas where we are is less activity as we had a lot of leases already by janauary..

there were 100's more last year from TCEI in both counties.. these are just from january.. you see clusters and activity on the maps..

kinda get that feeling we are in the middle of a real hot spot???

 

[sbop]

534,376 @ 0.5400
Weird activity. Possible that the guy selling at 0.54 could have had a poorly set up stop loss or conditional order?

 

[Ken]

It was a crossed trade.

I saw it.


Not sure what to make of it.

I wanted in at 54 cents.

But no go.

Bugger!

 

[Agentm]

its all over now...

clear air and now back into free trade mode..

sick and tired of 3 days of ground hog day...

but they have left the building!!

 

[daeff]

I am pretty sure that the xt was the last of the recently left employee holdings..........you can confirm as the buyer was from ABNamro in bris...
I think the lid has now been taken off the sp and I think we should be back into the 60's in no time.

 

[Agentm]

the brisbane buyer has been waiting for some time to enter.. good to see he got a good price..

back to free market trade and name your price!!