ADI - Adelphi Energy

Not much volume at all today, I think EEE may have been on the money...buyers taking the plunge and not a lot of sellers out there.

Everyone is just waiting now, suprised they haven't announced the details of the workover rig...I'm hoping they are trying to get the best crew and rig they can.

ARQ increases stake in ADI things are looking good.
Results not far away ARQ buying more shares SP holding strong not many sellers
On a winner I think
AgentM where you hiding

The new taiton well has been averaging around 2393ft per week for the last couple of weeks. Based on this they should be getting to the Wilcox fault line in around 2 1/2 to 3 weeks. They will be testing between 14000ft and 17000ft so we should have some news by the end of the month...hopefully positive

Still havent heard any more about when they are likely to begin flow testing SL...anyone else heard anything?

Tom,
Posted on the EME thread yesterday.

"I have an E Mail from one of the partners on Sugarloaf. At this stage they expect testing to happen towards the end of Jan so rig availability doesn ´t appear to be an issue as expected.

-No technical issues on EV #1 Margarita as per SUR ´s RNS. If their 6200ft 10 day drilling programme is accurate then about another 5 days to go plus say 2 days thereafter for logging etc."

Any thoughts on a merger between ADI and ARQ
If ADI get up too $5 per share they can offer ARQ shareholders a 4 for 1 deal the way arq shares are tumbling.
This would cut the ammount of shares on offer create a bigger more efficient company sharing the same skills and have a greatt deal of exploration programed already.

Lucky_Country said:

Any thoughts on a merger between ADI and ARQ
If ADI get up too $5 per share they can offer ARQ shareholders a 4 for 1 deal the way arq shares are tumbling.
This would cut the ammount of shares on offer create a bigger more efficient company sharing the same skills and have a greatt deal of exploration programed already.

Click to expand...

I could be wrong but wasn't ADI spun out of ARQ? It would seem strange to remerge them.

if arq was to go for adi then it would have been done ages ago.. all the directors know what sugarloaf is, and once flow testing commences then we are off on another run, then the announcements of the results which will see the share price spike like never before.

NT has had a few problems, and now the rig is on the go its all ahead full steam, its highly unlikely the well will be dry, and it will give the sp a nice boost before the sugarloaf spike.

some predicted .60 in january for adi, it didnt go there as most wont sell at that level, and now the price is jumping at very low levels of trade.

keep in mind there are 3 major projects still to be announced by adi, all have considerable upside, one in particular close by to australia is of very big interest to me and may make me stay in way longer than planned.

i think the next 60 days will be without doubt the most significant days in the trading history of adi. cant see any downside in the short term at all, and the announcements of flow testing will stagger the market as these guys have been playing their cards very close. i have been accumulating over the last 30 days and i thought i never would. too much to offer on the upside to resist.

news has been quiet over the past weeks, and now as the news of the workover rig nears the speculators will start their run..

good times for both the short term and long termers..

Its been quite boring here without you AgentM no-one knows ADI like you

Good to see you back Agent M...I don't post often but I like to read your comments and am glad that you are still bullish on ADI.

While we wait just some info on a nearby gasfield. Only 13 km lies the large Pawnee gas field. The interesting part here is that it produces from the Edwards. Production to date is ~ 187BCF of dry gas. Field size is 310BCF.

So there is still the possibility that Sugarloaf may produce from the Edwards.

Got the info from the site below

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NYS/PXD/presentations/2006PXDAnalystDayFinal.pdf

EME have stated off the record that they have not ruled out Edwards even though Couch believes that it is too tight to produce.

See the buyers chasing ADI towards the close of the market...notice all the Sugarloaf JV partners are up today

great close, anticipation building as we get closer to end of Jan for the start of some results from Sugarloaf

Agentm said:

keep in mind there are 3 major projects still to be announced by adi, all have considerable upside, one in particular close by to australia is of very big interest to me and may make me stay in way longer than planned.

Click to expand...

Hi Agentm,

Are you referring to the AC/P 32 permit area off Western Australia? I believe the JV partners are looking to farmout the next well.

Folks
Would you care to guess what level of earnings EME may get off SugarLoaf (noting their 6% farm-in) should the well deliver against expectations.
I'm considering increasing my holdings in EME given that the price has dropped by 50% since November (to 40p share).
I'm worried about the driver behind EME's recent farm-in to Project Margarita ... on the one hand, you could think that this expense was born from confidence in eventual returns from Sugarloaf ... on the other hand, you may think that this was a short term gamble to try to get some production and positive sentiment/announcements from a lower risk well, prior to potentially bad or 'indifferent' news from Sugarloaf ... it's a hard one to call and I may be being overly cynical !!!
For example - Look at 'Pantheon Resources' deep well (Plum Deep) ... just before they announced that it was wet and tight, they made an upbeat announement about their smaller wells (Mohawk and Caddo) - are EME doing the same???
What do you think EME's 6% share could be worth, and, are EME entitled to participate in any other drills in the same block (if for example they decided to drill a load of wells in the Austin Chalks etc)
Appreciate your thoughts ... just to add a bit of colour to my deliberations

Best Regards
Dums
PS - Although it grieves me to admit it .... you deserved to win the Ashes !!!!

i think all the JV partners have rights to all zones, there are areas in the lease that are not totally covered by the JVP's, but the majority of the lease is covered for SL deep, and the edwards / sligo region. Austin is a different game, requiring negotiations fro leaseholders to convert, this still goes on as we speak. Little will be revealed about the true value of austin until flow testing is done, and if the flow testing of the hosston sands is as anticipated, then we will see a complete change in process, the well will become a production well and the chalks will be hit hard with wells without any flow testing, there is enough known about the chalks for the JVP's to have extreme confidence on the chalks being run as a seperate field as already hinted in the annual report by two of the JVP's.

I think you will find the pace of the sp is being determined by an entry of a whole lot of new investors, after the roadshow in dec the stockbrokers have begun making their respective clients ware of the share, and after research and evaluation we see since then a steady flow of investing on the share. I aint sellin to these guys, my selling comes later when full value is achieved.

The next few weeks are going to be interesting, the NT rig is now bug free, i hear its not the fault of the operator, but more a case of the rig itself being relatively new and bugs being ironed out,, so no charge to the operator by the rig owner for any downtime or maintenance.. so as a shareholder we dont have to worry about cost blowouts. minor delays in the near term are still possible but all delays and fixes are done for safety and for the overall success of the operation.

2 weeks of delays is nothing in terms of drilling, rarely does a well operation complete without delays, its always important to factor in stoppages. NT is a very low risk and extremely well researched well, its almost certain the well will encounter hydrocarbons in all zones, and i believe this well is the most likely of any well to produce results as, or better than expected.

in terms of SL. in the next few weeks the workover commences, and within a fortnight thereafter we should have the results of the fracing and flow testing. then we see some real action on the upside!!

trading on adi is still quite solid, with not many prepared to sell lower anymore as we near the business end of the explorer stage and the transition into a producer...



as for edwards, remember this well was drilled in a place to adequately test all zones of interest, it could very well be that on other parts of the lease the edwards is entirely different, and may well be commercial with fracing.. (pure speculation) ... we have see comments previously to not rule out edwards.


interesting days for adi. still cant see any downside..

AgentM,
Cracking post as always. Sligo could also add a tincture of excitement as contrary to the pre-drill plan it was cased off in toto at no little expense. Something interesting there also methinks.
Ultimately this is a wildcat appraisal well only with develpment & production to follow. Whilst one well does not a summer make it could be a corker in its own right. They could be there draining the land for many years to come.

I'm still confident that Sligo will add commercial benefit to SL. During drilling there were several methane-only gas shows in this secodary target. As for Edwards, I don't think that looks as promising

NT drill is slowish, 289 feet per day.. wouldnt take much to go 500 feet per day on a 12' bit.. and that would mean in about 7 to 10 days striking close to a primary in the 14'000 feet zone.. wishful thinking but possible..

in my view the sp is a bit under half way to the full value of the secondary austin chalks. and the value of the primary is yet to be factored in.. i agree with flintoff on the gas being a long term project, but once the huge operation starts into full swing to drill away with multiple wells on both the primary and secondary, then you get the idea of how massive this world class project really is.

I keep reflecting back on the one real interesting fact, that regardless of the success of the primary ( and i fully believe now that the well is totally commercial on the hosston sands ) regardless of the primary, we have still the undeniable fact that the secondary is considered commercial in any case, so its really a case of double success, and with the small hitch that once the primary is tested, they are not going to flow test the secondary, just put the primary into production.

So its a wierd place to be as an explorer to not be able to test a secondary zone, have a commercial primary and a well that is 100% bonifide commercial in both zones yet the market is still speculating on the possibilty of success!!

only a matter of weeks b4 we get the detail we need.. looks like NT successes will possibly be announced before the workover starts up, next weeks announcements will be interesting to the sp..
all in MHO and DYOR...

Oh man I love this share!!!

Have been a way for a few weeks - with little opportunity to stop and check out what was happening. Just got home and hada gander and what do you know - we've bashed through $1.00. Has come back since - but a milestone nontheless. Was A little slow over the x-mas break, but now we're away again. yeeehaahhh

And so much good info still being shared here!! Great job to all, and happy new year...May you all be reaping the rewards of ADI info-sharing for the 11.5 of 2007 months still to come... amd way beyond!!

Regarding Agent M's comments about the market seeming to ignore the success of ADI's holes - I wonder how much of that is people just not looking deep enough. I mean, a quick glance at the chart would probably scare many who might be inclined to think 'the horse has already bolted - I'll look elsewhere' - without looking at the fundamentals to realise as we do here - that this horse is just prancing around in the open gate, waiting for the starters gun!!
Well thats my feeling anyway ... I expect I'll be in ADI to some extent for a long time to come.

- (ex-AWOL) - Dukey