ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Ramblin Round]

Happy days are here again for Adelphi. With the JVP almost in full swing towards pipelining the product we should be experiencing accellerated production in no time.

 

[Agentm]

rambling

north of you in gonzales a private company is buying up big time..

any one guessing who it may be?

Lucas Energy inches forth in Eagle Ford venture

Houston-based independent Lucas Energy has signed the purchase and sale agreement of the previously announced letter of intent for a new joint venture with a large, privately-owned, oil and gas company.

Upstream staff 06 April 2010 18:46 GMT

The purchase and sale agreement is binding but is subject to determination of the actual acreage to be conveyed and the actual closing which is anticipated to be completed prior to 30 April.

Further details will be available after closing, the company said in a statement.

The purpose of the proposed joint venture is the development of the Eagle Ford Shale properties owned by Lucas Energy in Gonzales County, Texas.

 

[condog]

Absolutely no idea, but all this M&A activity is justified and adding to the hype and hysteria surrounding the Eagleford.

 

[Lucky_Country]

How long will our jvp stay independant ?

All look like serious takeover targets to an American entity.

 

[choppy]

north of you in gonzales a private company is buying up big time..

any one guessing who it may be?

Lucas Energy inches forth in Eagle Ford venture

Houston-based independent Lucas Energy has signed the purchase and sale agreement of the previously announced letter of intent for a new joint venture with a large, privately-owned, oil and gas company

I got my money on Hillcorp as the Lucas acreage buyer. They are the only private company I can think of off hand with those kind of $$$$.

 

[Agie82]

Choppy, you may be right. Our land is located in Wrightsboro, about halfway between Smiley and Gonzales. We received a registered letter from Hilcorp wanting to lease our property for 500 per acre. Really sorry we are about to enter our 3rd year of a 3 year lease. I would say we are in a good zone, but I would also say Hilcorp may be the Lucas partner as Lucus is very active re-entering old chalk wells in this area or we may have several players coming into the area. We know EOG is the big player on the Gonzales-Dewitt county line as there is a lot of activity in and around Westhoff. Counted 4 rigs within 5 miles of there last Saturday.

 

[jancha]

Certainly lots of activity & talk going on around the vicinity but very little with ADI to have little friends of interest. Unless everyone is sitting on the fence waiting for something to happen but when a positive announcement does come out the sp seems to go nowhere but slightly down if anything.
Why the lack of interest when the the opposite can be said for the region?

 

[Agentm]

Certainly lots of activity & talk going on around the vicinity but very little with ADI to have little friends of interest. Unless everyone is sitting on the fence waiting for something to happen but when a positive announcement does come out the sp seems to go nowhere but slightly down if anything.
Why the lack of interest when the the opposite can be said for the region?

people posting regional info is just how it goes, i know of no other thread anywhere on any forum that holds the level of regional info that this one does..

there are certainly plenty of specific blogs out there that are directly dealing with the eagleford and the leasing issues etc.. but this site is not about the leases, its about adi..

the lucas deal means a lot, it indicates the serious commitment that hilcorp quite possibly are involved in.. my view is that the news items i post are relevant to the adi share as its blatantly obvious to me that there is yet to be any significant value attributed to the jvp thus far to what i consider to be world class play..

no one is getting it right now, the comments from conoco recently are being ignored also imho..

but imho they are absolutely spot on

F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T
Mar. 24. 2010 / 12:30PM, COP - ConocoPhillips Analyst Meeting

Kevin Meyers - ConocoPhillips - SVP E&P - Americas

“So where are we spending our money in 2010 in lower 48 and Canada onshore? We plan to spend about $1.2 billion in new investment in 2010 in this area, and our focus areas really are threefold. The first of these is in our shale plays, in particular the Bakken and the Eagle Ford. We look at the Bakken; we continue to get very, very exciting results out of there. Our initial production rates in the Bakken in our recent wells have ranged from 1,800 to 2,400 barrels per day. And, again, that is liquids, so you get excited about those liquid production.
When you look at the Eagle Ford, we currently have three rigs drilling in the Eagle Ford. We have planned by the next six months to bring on about 15 wells and put them on production. Our most recent well that we tested down there got 4.5 million standard cubic feet per day of gas, and that's a pretty good result in and of itself, but when you add on the fact that we also got 1,800 barrels of liquids, then you start to get really excited. So we're looking at expanding our program there into Eagle Ford and believe it has great promise for us.”


Larry Archibald - ConocoPhillips - SVP Exploration & BD

"I'd just reinforce the Eagle Ford. At a time we had such a big position in the Eagle Ford -- we amassed over 300,000 acres in the overall Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford trend, about 240,000 of that in the sweet spot of just the Eagle Ford, the rest of that in the nice Austin Chalk play. We continued to drive down costs and see such good rates that we decided not to flip any of our acreage and we're just ramping up rigs now.
For example, we are in a very oily part of the play relative to some of the competition, Petrohawk and others in a more dry gas part of the play. Last fall, we tested at a rate of about 4.5 million cubic feet a day and 1,800 barrels of condensate per day on tests. So, over 11 million cubic feet equivalent a day, but two-thirds of that liquids.
So, this high liquid content, the high value, is consistent with our strategy of delivering near-term value in the liquid side, and we're adding rigs to the play, and really focused on Eagle Ford now, but what we haven't talked about much is equally interesting.
Stacked over most of our Eagle Ford acreage is a beautiful Austin Chalk play. We've drilled some laterals in the Austin Chalk and achieved exceptional rates, good liquids content in the Austin Chalk as well. So, I expect we'll be exploiting that play for a decade later; after we're done with the Eagle Ford, coming back and hitting most of the Austin Chalk with laterals."

http://www.conocophillips.com/EN/inv...3-24T12_30.pdf

 

[jancha]

Exactly my point Agentm.
All strong positive news. Even Hartleys recommendation was upgraded recently so i cant see how or why ADI just sits in limbo.
What possibly more would it take for the likes of ADI to head north with all the positive sentiment & interest out there?
Rambling: When you stated happy days are here again.
What happy days are you referring to or are talking about the land owners in the area?

 

[Bilja]

Is anyone able to provide some sort of rational explanation as to why the SP seems to flounder and even drop after a positive announcement??

I just cannot seem to understand what is going on and why we have not seem continual incremental increases in SP on the back of the latest positive announcements....heading towards the well know Hartley's estimates.....

 

[Agentm]

imho if the price flounders, and you see the value, then perhaps its a perfect time to accumulate.

its not like there is any volume in the share atm, so i see it as before in the groundhog days, one day up, one day down..

imho tomorrow will be a very interesting day again, eog will be coming out with a lot of data on their eagleford play, and they have many wells in operation just north of kowalik and rancho and turnbull.

that will impact aut dramatically as eog are next to their acreages..

hilcorp recently presented their eagleford position recently and are obviously keen to let everyone know what they have got also.

http://www.ugcenter.com/Shales/US/EagleFord/item54518.php

imho all positive news really

 

[philly]

maybe there is a bit too much happening ATM!
After Hilcorp completes its committment in the sugarloaf [ 3 fractures and 3 drills] it has to then drill another 7 wells to get its share of AUT. And if Hilcorp is the rumoured buyer of Lucas leases then it more work to do there. If you add this to the workload of the other big players in the zone then everyone is just falling over each other in an attempt to get things done. In the end there must be order and some wells will be drilled first and others later. ATM the picture with ADI is clear and the results are not far away thereafter there may be some delay as to when the next wells commence. In the meantime some may choose to move out of ADI and into AUT and then back or elsewhere and some will sit tight. All of this action will impact on the SP.

 

[Bwanablue]

The EOG presentation on the South Texas Eagle Ford portion of their holdings is available on their website for download now, and I must say, they have "opened the kimono".

Easily the most detailed analysis of the play that I've seen so far.
If this presentation doesn't get your blood pumping, nothing will.

I don't have enough posts to post a link, but it's easy to find in the Investor Relations section of EOG Resources' website.

 

[Ramblin Round]

Happy days because ADI stocks went up a few cents yesterday, that's why. : But also the activity around here has been white hot. Petrohawk and GeoSouthern seem to be working very heavily together on the Eagle Ford play. The pipeline projects are moving right along and the gas being produced is so pure they won't mix it wth other pipelines. They want one just for this gas. As for leasing activity ? Two old tyme "town hall" meetings were locally hosted last week by two of the major players in this field due to all of the lease activity and discussions from landowners. I haven't seen anything like this since the oil boom of the 1900's. Crazy stuff.

 

[Jman2010]

Happy days because ADI stocks went up a few cents yesterday, that's why. : But also the activity around here has been white hot. Petrohawk and GeoSouthern seem to be working very heavily together on the Eagle Ford play. The pipeline projects are moving right along and the gas being produced is so pure they won't mix it wth other pipelines. They want one just for this gas. As for leasing activity ? Two old tyme "town hall" meetings were locally hosted last week by two of the major players in this field due to all of the lease activity and discussions from landowners. I haven't seen anything like this since the oil boom of the 1900's. Crazy stuff.

Petrohawk and Geo have a deal where Petrohawk operates the wells until they go to sales then Geo takes over.

 

[Ramblin Round]

How would this work out on the lease ? Is there a certain way to set up the lease or is it all transparant to the landowner ?

 

[Agentm]

EOG Announces Significant South Texas Eagle Ford Horizontal Crude Oil Discovery

In South Texas, EOG has accumulated acreage across six counties in the Eagle Ford Play where it has drilled 16 delineation wells over a 120 mile trend. Based on initial drilling and production results, as well as technical and core analysis, the estimated reserve potential on EOG's 505,000 net acre position in the oil window is approximately 900 million barrels of crude oil equivalent (MMboe), net after royalty (NAR). Development of this high rate-of-return crude oil play is underway with the first significant production impact projected for 2011.



“We believe the South Texas Eagle Ford horizontal crude oil play will prove to be one of the most significant United States oil discoveries in the past 40 years," said Papa.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...0-analyst-conference-highlights-90075512.html

 

[Ramblin Round]

At an average of say 80US/barrell that would be 72 billion dollars worth of oil. Talk about a big discovery now that's a big discovery.

 

[Agentm]

the presentation is a must read imho

http://www.eogresources.com/media/slides/ac_st0410.pdf

slides like this put the hartleys comment on the play being totally derisked into perspective

"We interpret the key remaining risk to be operational"

"Hartleys Initial View
We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received
from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the
surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in
the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and
short term price target of 45cps.
If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months) continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation for further large upgrades in price target and valuation, as indicated by our unrisked valuation of 188cps."

 

[condog]

At an average of say 80US/barrell that would be 72 billion dollars worth of oil. Talk about a big discovery now that's a big discovery.

Hey agent thanks for all the updates.

Ramblin I think most are working on an IRR of 55% - 65% per well from memory so around 45Billion or so. Still a damn big return on investment.