ADI - Adelphi Energy

[WRONG'UN]

Hi Sam76
The sheet that I posted shows ADI's 130BCFe as having an in-situ value of $650m, or $4.42 per share, on the basis of gas and oil prices of $5 and $50 respectively.
Allowing for the current prices of $5 and $80 increases the value to $908m, or $6.18 per share - 39% more.
These values have to be discounted to allow for risks, the productive life of the field, the time value of money, costs, tax etc..., - beyond me at this stage, but even a 90% discounting on the current figure still leaves us at 62cents. And there is always the chance that the field will be better than expected, with a positive impact on the valuation.
Sorry I can't be more explicit - all I was really trying to show was the effect of an increase in the oil price, relative to the gas price, and raising the question as to whether this was being allowed for by those involved in valuing the stock.
Hartleys have risked valuations ranging from 27cps to 37cps, and unrisked valuations from 180cps to 186.2cps. I am not sure whether they have allowed for the "oil effect" or not.
Whatever, more will be revealed with the passage of time, and the consequent reduction in the uncertainty.
Good luck to all holders.
Cheers, Wrong'un.

 

[estseon]

Hi wrong'un.

Hyperbolic decay profile like most other things in nature.

Think of the pressure gradient from the surface discontinuity into the rock.

I think that you will find data for Kunde 1 (Burlington/COP 1st well on Block A) in one of the ADI/AUT (probably) presentations. Trouble is, COP can't leave anything alone. They did a workover and so the graph starts again.

We're looking at post royalties (say 29%) and then expenses (not too much) then tax (how could you forget - the sleeping partner).

Total production will take a different profile because of new drilling.

I think that cash revenues are more important at the present time. Those and success replication.

 

[cicak_kupang]

I cant wait to see what the forward drilling programme will look like for the JVP's, once this current drilling programme is over. Some how i dont think they will be packing up and going home.....

 

[Agentm]

cicak_kupang

exxon mobil are very keen on the acreages.

looking in the counties of mcmullen and lasalle there are 3 and 2 permits respectively for the giant..

 

[jetblack]

Strong price today, compared to the other jvp's so far.

Not trying to jump the gun as its early days yet.

However, Agent M has made a few points which I believe supports more movement of ADI to where it is.

That they ADI have a good deal of money in the bank and extra acerage does not mean more share price, ADI dont have the burden they have the focus.

 

[adobee]

I have picked up more this morning equal to my profits todate .. getting on the cane express with the rest of the crowd before it leaves the station ..

Been very happy over last few weeks up about 87% dont have a huge amount but now around 150k shares .. hope we push strongly through 30 cent range soon ..

 

[Agentm]

this little historic shows what the advent of a series of very positive announcements have..

i agree the $5 mill in the bank for adi is a real positive, and not having any obligations of big spends on extra acreages has its advantages jetblack

adi said this in their last annual report.. imho it still is relevant to investors to consider how world events impacted on the shale plays and the oil prices, along with currency imbalances..

Dear Shareholder,

Around the time of our last AGM in November 2008,
the outlook for Adelphi, in common with most junior oil
exploration companies, was problematic. The oil price
had plummeted, Sugarloaf well results were inconclusive,
Wisteria -1 was a dry hole, our farm-in partners for
our newly acquired Indonesian exploration block had
defaulted on their commitments, and our cash reserves
had been decimated by the plunge in the Aussie dollar
and cost overruns. It was not a good time to be a junior
oil explorer in the midst of a global financial crisis!
As a result, your Board immediately put in place a
strategy for financial security; which initially involved
cutting off discretionary expenditure, secondly by
raising $1.6 million in new equity, and thirdly by selling
and farming out assets to reduce our forward exploration
commitments.

These initiatives were successful and I am pleased to
report that Adelphi is now in a financially secure position
with approximately $6 million in cash, modest exploration
commitments and an active work program at Sugarloaf
with exciting upside potential.

50% of Adelphi’s interest in the Sugarloaf AMI has
been farmed out to Hilcorp – a significant US based
exploration and production company. In return,
Adelphi will be free carried through a work program
comprising up to three recompletions and/or
multi-stage fracture stimulations of existing wells, and
up to three new horizontal wells.

Adelphi’s 8.5% working interest in Yemen Block 7 has
been sold for a consideration of US$4 million.

Adelphi’s 8.5% working interest in Yemen Block 74 is
in the process of being sold. Discussions with several
companies are advanced

 

[Lucky_Country]

Hey AgentM just wondering wether you know how the farmin actually works ?

Does Hillcorp get its 50% share on each well after they have completed that well or do they have to wait until all wells are complete and flowing then they get the percentage ?

Be nice if the jvp keep the revenues pre farmout until the completion of all wells !!

Cheers

 

[Agentm]

adi hold firm 20% on the undeveloped acreages

hilcorp will only achieve their farm in on the basis they contribute.

say if hilcorp were not impressed with 3000 bopd and 12 mmcfpd on easley and decided to walk. lol ... which would absolute madness .. hilcorp would hold their interest on that well and any wells they completed as part of the farm in deal, and adi would hold their respective farm in value for those wells.. all other regions would remain 20%

 

[Lucky_Country]

I would be amazed if Kennedy or Easley produced 3000 bopd !!

Kennedy even on the initial flow rates was at the top end of my calculations.

AgentM does this mean that ADI now only have 10% of Kennedy and Hillcorp now has its farmin percentage ?

 

[rock86]

New high's again today.......... someone has to know something about these results Over on HC someone was saying something about Yemen block 74 being sold, anyone got any info on this????

 

[Agentm]

rock

yemen has always been up for sale.. it was at pretty advanced stages according to them in their last annual report..

where its at now would be entirely speculation

 

[prawn_86]

Some very good technical knowledge and discussion happening in this thread. Still got some way back up to all time highs, but well done to those holders who kept the faith.

 

[prgudula]

24 February 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online
Weston #1H – Initial Production Rate
Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations
at the Weston #1H well.
Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp Energy, that following a successful
fracture stimulation of 3,000’ of horizontal section, the Weston #1H well continues to clean up
to sales. The average production rate over the first five days was 5.68 million cubic feet of
gas per day (“mmscf/d”) and 414 bbls of condensate (“bcpd”) per day. Flow back of the
fracture fluids started at rates of 1,000 bbls of water per day (“bwpd”), decreasing to 500
bwpd over the same period.
This initial production rate corresponds to an equivalent gas rate of 10.65 mmscfe/d on a 12:1
conversion ratio and before providing for any uplift associated with high calorific gas.
Whilst these initial rates are encouraging and continue to further demonstrate the viability of
the field, the following points should be noted:
• This is an initial production rate during clean up and may not be indicative of a short
or long term production profile.
• The well still has considerable fluids to recover from the fracture stimulation operations.
• The well is currently producing through the 7" production casing. A smaller diameter
production tubing string will be installed in due course which should allow higher
production rates.
• Geological factors have generated the dry gas, condensate rich gas or oil reservoirs
observed to date across the trend. These same influences will vary the gas to
condensate ratio observed across the Sugarloaf acreage. The Weston results broadly
conform to expectation but a population of wells within the area will better define
these variations.
• The gas produced to date from the field has had a high calorific value and has
commanded a 25% uplift on dry gas pricing.
As further results become available from the ongoing work program across the Sugarloaf AMI,
Adelphi will in due course move away from reporting an ‘Initial Production Rate’ to reporting
the average rate over the initial 30 days of production. This approach has greater technical
validity and provides a sound basis from which to commence the extrapolation of decline
curves as more production data is acquired.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI.
Other ASX listed participants in the Sugarloaf AMI, and their respective pre-farm-out working
interests are:
Aurora Oil and Gas Limited 20.0%
Eureka Energy Limited 12.5%

 

[jetblack]

As it is , like the previous announcement.

No fan fair tell it like it is, but I bet they were glowing inside.

Weston, a chalk play , successful 3000 ft frac. 25% increase on quality gas.

They would have to take that well into the shale, at some stage, they have the quality people to it.


This is getting a nice build for Easley.

 

[jancha]

I have picked up more this morning equal to my profits todate .. getting on the cane express with the rest of the crowd before it leaves the station ..

Been very happy over last few weeks up about 87% dont have a huge amount but now around 150k shares .. hope we push strongly through 30 cent range soon ..

From a High of 38c down to a low of 30c.
The only reason i can justify the downturn is adobee's back on the scene or am i missing something here with the last announcement?

 

[adobee]

From a High of 38c down to a low of 30c.
The only reason i can justify the downturn is adobee's back on the scene or am i missing something here with the last announcement?

haha i was doing well for about six hours... Nah.. I have been holding this since 17c.. got more at 31c the other day ..

I think it will bounce back tomorrow.. post announcment I think there may have been a few who bought up when they saw the low volume available it was stacked 900k buy to 200k sell at one stage and jumped in which pushed it up.. on the hope it would run.. when it didnt they needed to get out before close of trade bring it back down.. could be wrong but thats how i see it ..

I am holding on and expect to see steady rise as more information comes out and broker updates increase there targets ..

 

[basilio]

Yipee!! I'm back to where I started with ADI.

Originally jumped in at 30c I think Nov 2008 when there was a drill that was going to be the goods....

Anyway 15 months later it all looks so much better. Thank you to Agentum in particular who has kept a very strong presence in this forum with his ongoing analysis. I believe it has kept a number of us involved when other factors would have suggested cutting our losses. Really liked your graph of a couple of days ago showing the progress from 6c to 30c. (It would have been a courageous decision to keep buying at 6 cents....)

Now if only a few other sick puppies could sit up and bark..

Cheers

 

[Miner]

ADI shot up 38 cents today and came down to 31 cents. Still a handsome gain so soon .

But where are our favourite ADI contributors or gurus like Agentm and otehrs in this thread today ?

Agentm you must be enjoying your well deserved bottle of champagane after working so hard to educate a bunch of follks on the benefits of ADI with real technical stuff assisted by few others. I did not see your postings at all since morning - very unusual and hope you are well.

Condog - you were missing as well in ADI thread today so far.

Tomorrow will be an exciting day.

Since all three are closely related ADI, EKA and AUT. I did not understand when ADI rose up why EKA and AUT did not follow the trend. Technically they share most of the holdings of success.

Disclaimer : I do hold ADI

 

[condog]

Nice to be missed.

Yes good day for ADI. Might be the other twos turns soon.

The market misread the info for most the morning session , then the traders moved in just as the ADI crew realised with agents help that they mis read it.

The AUT crew largely dont monitor agent and others so missed the analysis.

Looking very good.

What many forgot was those weston figures should clean up beetter. But more importantly is when they are on the production tubing. That should bring a lot more condensate. Likewise for Kennedy.