ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Lucky_Country]

Hi All,

Just a quick couple of questions as I am trying to develop an exit strategy for ADI but lack the knowledge that numerous other posters on this thread possess of the specific oil and gas industry (you all know who you are and I along with everyone else thank you for sharing your thoughts and keeping us all up to date on a regular basis. Of course an honourable mention goes out to Agent M)

I bought my first batch of ADI in Nov 2006 for 0.625c, rode them up to .88 cents and back down to what they are today. My faith in the share has been rocked a number of times as I'm sure a lot of peoples have but I have continued to add to my position taking into account the postings I have read and the education I have received on a lot of areas of the oil and gas industry and companies involved in the Sugarloaf. I need the share to get to .26 cents to break even so I'm feeling relatively safe.

I have now been considering adding to my position once again if the Kowalik results come out postive. I was wondering if anyone else was thinking of doing the same. Does it mean if Kowalik flows well than the other two have a higher probability of doing the same or am I way off? Are prices likely to spike as soon as the announcements are made or will there be expected to be a gradual increase/decrease if the news comes out either way.

Anyones help would be appreciated as it really looks like the next couple of months will be the time I let go of my ADI. Its been a hell of a ride and I'm sure if things go well, subsequent wells will increase the sp but I've waited long enough.

Fingers crossed and lots of positive thinking

EEE

PS - sorry this has turned into an epic but hopefully this also helps some of the other amateurs like myself who are struggling with an exit stratey.

Well an exit stratergy for ADI ? Buy low sell high !!

I personally feel that an American entity may make that decision for you if you can understand where Im coming from !

After holding ADI for so long I for one am just concentrating on results before having an exit stratergy as how can one decide on what to do without results.

There have been various figures put out on good results at Sugarkane so you could base your sell price on these figures but these kind of stocks tend to get overbought and oversold at various stages but continuos drilling and and good results could see the shareprice go far higher than many expect !!!

 

[condog]

This is one of the most popular stocks on ASF....it has so many responses its hard to keep track....for me and anyone else whos just started watching it can someone or a few people give a very brief commentary of the key reasons they think its a great stock and why they think it has so much upside if thats the case ta...

Ive read the last few pages and checked braphs plus financials, but a global overview of whats doen and whats in the pipeline would be lovely. ta...

 

[Agentm]

low entry price, high upside and all major oil companies chasing acreages in the vicinity..

apart from that no big deal



oh,, and no one thinks the acreages adi have stand a snowballs chance in hell atm,, sp is about 10% of the upside

 

[Sdajii]

low entry price, high upside and all major oil companies chasing acreages in the vicinity..

apart from that no big deal



oh,, and no one thinks the acreages adi have stand a snowballs chance in hell atm,, sp is about 10% of the upside

Why do you think the SP is so undervalued? Is it simply that ADI is completely under the radar? If so, why are people like yourself who are in the know not buying up big, by getting themselves up to their eyeballs in debt if necessary? Surely that would make sense, at least until the SP is up to at least 50-70% of their true value. If you're so sure of a 1,000% profit, it seems madness for anyone in the know not to be throwing everything they can into it. You are certainly talking this company up, up, up, not keeping it hushed.

Is it that there is a real reason to think that these wells stand no more than a snowball's chance in Hell? It does seem like the market believes so. Why is this?

Or is it a case of it being blatantly obvious for anyone in the know, but with people like yourself being so few that even though you have bought up big, the buy up just hasn't been that large? I know there are cases where exactly that does happen.

It just seems very strange that you could continually give this company such a hype with predictions of such confidence, and for the SP to lay down in defiance for so long.

Certainly not an attack on you, I'm just wondering. For the record, I hold, so I obviously agree that this one is worth betting on, though perhaps not quite the 1,000% profit prediction, and certainly not with a high confidence level. I'm more than happy to be proven wrong, of course

 

[Ramblin Round]

Greetings from Texas.

After reading all 200+ pages (twice) I feel ready to invest in Adelphi. However there is no change in the stock on Nasdaq since Dec. 24th and they are not trading since then. Why ?

How can I buy some shares ? I have done my dd and am ready to invest and now I can't ? I've never bought shares of a company before and I'm quite ignorant to trading, etc. But I've seen what these wells are capable of and know that Agent M must travel the same highways that I do because I see all the activity and have friends in the field. What Agent M speaks is purely truth. Invest or don't invest, it's your business but I want in on Adelphi. Now I just need to know how.

 

[estseon]

Greetings from Texas.

After reading all 200+ pages (twice) I feel ready to invest in Adelphi. However there is no change in the stock on Nasdaq since Dec. 24th and they are not trading since then. Why ?

How can I buy some shares ? I have done my dd and am ready to invest and now I can't ? I've never bought shares of a company before and I'm quite ignorant to trading, etc. But I've seen what these wells are capable of and know that Agent M must travel the same highways that I do because I see all the activity and have friends in the field. What Agent M speaks is purely truth. Invest or don't invest, it's your business but I want in on Adelphi. Now I just need to know how.

Ramblin

I invested from the UK through a UK broker that has a collaberation with a local (ASX) broker and stock custodian. Not all UK brokers offer that type of facility. You may have to do similarly from the US. Only an existing US investor or a US broker could advise you. Good luck!

 

[mjam]

Why do you think the SP is so undervalued?

My view on why the share price is as the current level is simply due to the fact this company has not delivered anything over the last few years.

If anything it has delivered a number of exploration failures during this time - e.g Indonesia just to name one.

We can say things like the company managed to stay alive during the GFC and that's all good - but bottom line is it is a exploration company that has had no real success to date.

Now to the present - the company has a potential company making play in sugarloaf and at face value it has a farm in partner (hilcorp) that provides me with some level of confidence - lets hope they nail it and deliver some long awaited returns to the shareholders.

 

[Agentm]

Why do you think the SP is so undervalued? Is it simply that ADI is completely under the radar? If so, why are people like yourself who are in the know not buying up big, by getting themselves up to their eyeballs in debt if necessary? Surely that would make sense, at least until the SP is up to at least 50-70% of their true value. If you're so sure of a 1,000% profit, it seems madness for anyone in the know not to be throwing everything they can into it. You are certainly talking this company up, up, up, not keeping it hushed.

Is it that there is a real reason to think that these wells stand no more than a snowball's chance in Hell? It does seem like the market believes so. Why is this?

Or is it a case of it being blatantly obvious for anyone in the know, but with people like yourself being so few that even though you have bought up big, the buy up just hasn't been that large? I know there are cases where exactly that does happen.

It just seems very strange that you could continually give this company such a hype with predictions of such confidence, and for the SP to lay down in defiance for so long.

Certainly not an attack on you, I'm just wondering. For the record, I hold, so I obviously agree that this one is worth betting on, though perhaps not quite the 1,000% profit prediction, and certainly not with a high confidence level. I'm more than happy to be proven wrong, of course

wow, with all thats been posted on the thread you still dont get it? huge attack on agent m here..

all i can say is dyor..

i dont hype, your a bit insulting. you wont get away with saying you not attacking someone in a sentence after you just did... i just post regional facts, when adi started in the chalks and eagleford many years ago, it was a huge secret, and noone believed the eagleford shale could produce, then a number of explorers got involved besides adi and tcei and conoco.. petrohawk got on with things,, but the rock in karnes county was a little different, it had two zones active, its called the sugarkane and it is a touch tricky.. but right now all the major oil corporations are buying into the play.. why is that?????

conoco recently announced a 4mmcfpd 1500 bopd well a few months back, if you dont believe it, then look up their press releases..

hilcorp, the 4th biggest privately owned oil company just bought into the sugarkane,, why is that?

adi sit in the same, if you can prove to me the field is unproductive, and can never be commercial i will sell my shares today, but all anecdotal evidence i find points to hydrocarbons in the field and production from wells.. i make no apologies for posting data and from what i hear, many people learn a lot from the research i post.. grow up and thank someone rather than criticise and call it hype.. what hype? there has been no hype, just the facts,, adi wont even hype it up, they cant post anything due to the secrecy with tcei and conoco, i post so much stuff here, my data here appears on well sites in karnes county, so big is their concern over the play and keeping a lid on it.. i am closely watched and only post as much as i can what i know to be factual, and when its not i certainly say its from a source.. the directors are far more concerned with sp stability, and with straight shooting and honesty,, look to gdn, azz or many others if you want hype..

you invest what you feel comfortable with, and with respect to your asking if i topped up, ffs, how many times have i said i did top up? why ask someone and pretend they they have not topped up? and then criticise them for not topping up?? when they have and openly say so time and again?

if you dont see a huge upside, then what upside do you see and for what reason?

you ask questions like you have no confidence in your own investing, thats your deal,, not mine,, if you cant handle investing and need a warm blanket and need to be spoon fed, and need others to make the decision feel right,, then dont look to me for your comfort.. dyor and invest to the levels you can deal with..


this is how adi see the value

on the topic of the wells, so far only one well, kowalik, had some open hole exposure to the chalks and kennedy has had a mini frac attempt in eagelford. oth produced, koalik was damaged and was not commercial, kennedy on a featherduster frac obviously did not flow commercial, but there are plans to frac the entire well and expose it to the eagelford for production.
in about 4 weeks or so.

conoco had huge success at bordovsky, there is anticipation that the stimulation of these wells will deliver flow, we are invested in the hope its good flow and commercial,,

this is how adi see the frac, its many times the size of any frac attempt so far..

btw.. your very close to being put on ignore permanently.. usually asf folk are a lot politer than you are..

 

[nioka]

Why do you think the SP is so undervalued? Is it simply that ADI is completely under the radar? If so, why are people like yourself who are in the know not buying up big, by getting themselves up to their eyeballs in debt if necessary? Surely that would make sense, at least until the SP is up to at least 50-70% of their true value. If you're so sure of a 1,000% profit, it seems madness for anyone in the know not to be throwing everything they can into it. You are certainly talking this company up, up, up, not keeping it hushed.

It may surprise those that are critical of some posters and suggest continuous ramping to know that there are a few who do post here that are in the top 20 shareholder list, backing their post with hard cash.

As far as suggesting that those with faith should "throw everything they can muster" into ADI ?. Nobody should ever invest in ANY stock more than they can afford to lose.

 

[Agentm]

It may surprise those that are critical of some posters and suggest continuous ramping to know that there are a few who do post here that are in the top 20 shareholder list, backing their post with hard cash.

As far as suggesting that those with faith should "throw everything they can muster" into ADI ?. Nobody should ever invest in ANY stock more than they can afford to lose.

this site, and this thread is not about investment advising, as hard as many try to lure me into it..

its near impossible to just discuss the operations and the play itself

its not just investors that are making money here, i hear landowners are getting very large pay cheques, and one in particular in karnes county was staggering.. paid by conoco to a landowner..

sugarkane has delivered.. adi needs the tcei hilcorp crew to get it happening in one open hole well (kowalik) and the next two cemented laterals of kennedy and weston..

early days atm..

 

[Sdajii]

Wow! Sorry, I obviously came across very differently from the way I intended.

Agentm, I appreciate your posts, I am not accusing you of posting fiction, I watch this thread multiple times every day, largely because of your input. That has been a big part of my buying into ADI. Obviously I am not trying to discredit you, I have literally put thousands of dollars down in what you are saying and what else I have learned about ADI.

Perhaps the offense was taken in my misuse of colloquial investor jargon/lingo. Perhaps words like 'hype' carry more sting to people like yourself, while to me they are 'softer' words with a different meaning.

I'll say it again, I meant absolutely no attack on you at all. I gave several very reasonable (at least to me) possible explanations for the share price being so low which were mutually compatible with everything you say being top knotch information, which I still assume it to be. I also asked if there was something I was missing.

It seems fairly clear that you missed the point. Your going over the basics of the situation again seems to indicate that you think I was accusing you of giving misinformation. I was not. My question related to the investment world as a whole, and most likely, why ADI is not attracting more attention and money. If I throw up the possibility of the majority of the market realising something we/you don't and staying out, it is not that I am suggesting it is likely or that I think it is the case, it is just staying balanced and not blindfolding myself to any possibilities.

I think the main piece of misunderstanding came from me saying you keep hyping ADI up. In colloquial investor language, I take it this would be interpreted as 'falsely hyping' or 'presenting fictional data to artificially inflate interest' while I meant it simply as 'displaying it as a good investment'. The fact that I said I had invested my own money after reading this thread should make it plainly obvious that I take you seriously. Please, see the message being the words as it was intended, not as the message carried by the mistranslation. If I say I am not attacking you, perhaps you could take that at face value rather than getting upset and retaining the belief that an attack had been launched.

My question wasn't answered, but I don't really care now, forget it.

Good luck to all ADI investors Me included!

 

[OK2]

Wow! Sorry, I obviously came across very differently from the way I intended.

Agentm, I appreciate your posts, I am not accusing you of posting fiction, I watch this thread multiple times every day, largely because of your input. That has been a big part of my buying into ADI. Obviously I am not trying to discredit you, I have literally put thousands of dollars down in what you are saying and what else I have learned about ADI.

Perhaps the offense was taken in my misuse of colloquial investor jargon/lingo. Perhaps words like 'hype' carry more sting to people like yourself, while to me they are 'softer' words with a different meaning.

I'll say it again, I meant absolutely no attack on you at all. I gave several very reasonable (at least to me) possible explanations for the share price being so low which were mutually compatible with everything you say being top knotch information, which I still assume it to be. I also asked if there was something I was missing.

It seems fairly clear that you missed the point. Your going over the basics of the situation again seems to indicate that you think I was accusing you of giving misinformation. I was not. My question related to the investment world as a whole, and most likely, why ADI is not attracting more attention and money. If I throw up the possibility of the majority of the market realising something we/you don't and staying out, it is not that I am suggesting it is likely or that I think it is the case, it is just staying balanced and not blindfolding myself to any possibilities.

I think the main piece of misunderstanding came from me saying you keep hyping ADI up. In colloquial investor language, I take it this would be interpreted as 'falsely hyping' or 'presenting fictional data to artificially inflate interest' while I meant it simply as 'displaying it as a good investment'. The fact that I said I had invested my own money after reading this thread should make it plainly obvious that I take you seriously. Please, see the message being the words as it was intended, not as the message carried by the mistranslation. If I say I am not attacking you, perhaps you could take that at face value rather than getting upset and retaining the belief that an attack had been launched.

My question wasn't answered, but I don't really care now, forget it.

Good luck to all ADI investors Me included!

Sounded like a HC response, let ADI speak for itself! Agentm has informed us with facts that have supporting information and very little ramping. As a share holder is it not his duty to talk up the share? To me it would appear that there are people out there wanting to buy into ADI after the share price has began to bolt.

 

[adobee]

It may surprise those that are critical of some posters and suggest continuous ramping to know that there are a few who do post here that are in the top 20 shareholder list, backing their post with hard cash.

As far as suggesting that those with faith should "throw everything they can muster" into ADI ?. Nobody should ever invest in ANY stock more than they can afford to lose.

How do you know this ? Is this you ? Are you referring to me .. ?
How do you know who posts here is in the top 20 shareholder list .. ?

 

[sam76]

I can't believe everyone is being to touchy and defensive on this thread.

The words sand and vagina come to mind, lol

relaaaaax people.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/l7IHyGzPYIU&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/l7IHyGzPYIU&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

 

[Agentm]

How do you know this ? Is this you ? Are you referring to me .. ?
How do you know who posts here is in the top 20 shareholder list .. ?

lol

i know a lot of the top 20 myself, and they are mostly very long term holders.

Total and Chesapeake ink $2.25 billion shale-gas pact

NEW YORK ........ French oil major Total SA n Monday struck a deal to enter the U.S. shale-gas market for the first time with a $2.25 billion accord with Chesapeake Energy, sending shares of the domestic natural gas producer up handily.

The assets subject to the Chesapeake-Total joint venture include about 270,000 net acres of leasehold in the Core and Tier 1 areas of the Barnett, about 700 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day of current net production and about 3.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent of proved reserves.

In addition, Chesapeake believes that its leasehold position will support the drilling of some 3,100 additional net locations with 6.3 trillion cubic feet of unrisked unproved reserves.

And Chesapeake is talking with Total about the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas and Canadian natural gas shale plays.

this is also interesting


http://www.gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/haynesville-the-movie-now

 

[Speculator]

AgentM

I think I can safely stand for all the 'polite asx folk,' when I say thank you for your tireless research and factual postings. Regardless of how the SP moves in the coming months I, for one, have learned an invaluable amount of information from your postings, information which will benefit me through my trading life.

Keep up the good work AgentM!

GL to all holders.

 

[OK2]

I can't believe everyone is being to touchy and defensive on this thread.

The words sand and vagina come to mind, lol

relaaaaax people.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/l7IHyGzPYIU&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/l7IHyGzPYIU&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

Did I miss something? I am unable to work out the second half of your comment, could you please enlighten me as I find it intriguing.
Cheers

 

[sam76]

This is the only forum that doesn't automatically recognise youtube links.

all the others i'm on with the the same skin don't have a problem - it's just ASF

(this isn't a whinge just something to say to get up to 100 letters)

try this link.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7IHyGzPYIU

 

[Agentm]

there is a new permit TCEI has put in


http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...Query=Y&name=MORGAN+228-2&univDocNo=485893121

 

[nioka]

[QUOTE
How do you know who posts here is in the top 20 shareholder list .. ?[/QUOTE]

Thats a trade secret. Something for me to know and for others to guess. Believe me though it is a fact.