ADI - Adelphi Energy
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hey eee
valuations done by hartleys in feb 09 see's upside on $1.50 based on what they knew then, and no consideration for eagleford at that stage, just chalks and yemen and cash.. since then the yemen deal went through for one of the two yemen blocks adi had, cash is still to arrive.
in the 2008 annual report chris had this to say on the chalks (remember chalks was all they talked about, under strict orders to not mention the eagleford at that stage)
Overall, the Sugarloaf plus greater Sugarkane area is
thought to occupy at least 200,000 acres with a resource
potential of 500 million barrels of condensate plus 3
TCF of gas. Sugarloaf area mean potential reserves are
estimated to be 50 mmbbls of condensate plus 300 BCF
of gas – of which Adelphi’s share is 10 mmbbls and 60
BCF.
recently in the half yearly chris at adi released this statement regarding the region and talked up for the first time the secondary and imho larger target that ConocoPhillips finally opened up to and publically stated in early 2009 was a big part of their future exploration.. the primary target- the eagleford shale adi are now free to discuss the eagleford but not to discuss the COP wells atm in any detail.
Sugarloaf prospectivity can be summarized as follows:
• It is prospective for both the Chalk and Eagle Ford. Future completions may involve drilling horizontally in the Eagle Ford, then fracture stimulating to draw hydrocarbons
via induced fractures from both the Eagle Ford shale and the Austin Chalk.
• It has very high liquids yield (250 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas – higher than the 50 to 100 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas reported in Petrohawk areas)
• The Kennedy well is believed capable of producing at rates comparable to the Petrohawk wells when fracture stimulated over the whole lateral (currently only 600’ has been lightly fracture stimulated and ~3,000’ remains to be multi-stage fracced)
• Sugarloaf has similar geological attributes to the Petrohawk areas and if Petrohawk measured gas in place estimates of 180 – 210 BCF per 640 acres are applied to the entire 23,000 acre Sugarloaf area, the Sugarloaf in-place resource size could be in the order of 7 TCF equivalent.
so based on in place resource of 7 tcf in the eagleford and the production from the eagleford at kennedy and the conocophillips wells @ 250 bo per 1 mmcfg there is reason for speculation that the eagleford and chalks could be a massive winner for adi.. so how much more than the $1.50 figure based on chalks and yemen in feb does the massive eagleford target give adi??
these are hartleys figures for the chalks and yemen only
valuations done by hartleys in feb 09 see's upside on $1.50 based on what they knew then, and no consideration for eagleford at that stage, just chalks and yemen and cash.. since then the yemen deal went through for one of the two yemen blocks adi had, cash is still to arrive.
in the 2008 annual report chris had this to say on the chalks (remember chalks was all they talked about, under strict orders to not mention the eagleford at that stage)
Overall, the Sugarloaf plus greater Sugarkane area is
thought to occupy at least 200,000 acres with a resource
potential of 500 million barrels of condensate plus 3
TCF of gas. Sugarloaf area mean potential reserves are
estimated to be 50 mmbbls of condensate plus 300 BCF
of gas – of which Adelphi’s share is 10 mmbbls and 60
BCF.
recently in the half yearly chris at adi released this statement regarding the region and talked up for the first time the secondary and imho larger target that ConocoPhillips finally opened up to and publically stated in early 2009 was a big part of their future exploration.. the primary target- the eagleford shale adi are now free to discuss the eagleford but not to discuss the COP wells atm in any detail.
Sugarloaf prospectivity can be summarized as follows:
• It is prospective for both the Chalk and Eagle Ford. Future completions may involve drilling horizontally in the Eagle Ford, then fracture stimulating to draw hydrocarbons
via induced fractures from both the Eagle Ford shale and the Austin Chalk.
• It has very high liquids yield (250 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas – higher than the 50 to 100 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas reported in Petrohawk areas)
• The Kennedy well is believed capable of producing at rates comparable to the Petrohawk wells when fracture stimulated over the whole lateral (currently only 600’ has been lightly fracture stimulated and ~3,000’ remains to be multi-stage fracced)
• Sugarloaf has similar geological attributes to the Petrohawk areas and if Petrohawk measured gas in place estimates of 180 – 210 BCF per 640 acres are applied to the entire 23,000 acre Sugarloaf area, the Sugarloaf in-place resource size could be in the order of 7 TCF equivalent.
so based on in place resource of 7 tcf in the eagleford and the production from the eagleford at kennedy and the conocophillips wells @ 250 bo per 1 mmcfg there is reason for speculation that the eagleford and chalks could be a massive winner for adi.. so how much more than the $1.50 figure based on chalks and yemen in feb does the massive eagleford target give adi??
these are hartleys figures for the chalks and yemen only
Attachments
Well, my guess is that Agent M has lots and lots of shares...
hahaha: or maybe he's even a directorIf you have noted the quality of his posts, you might conclude that agentm does more research than most. He has extensively researched operators in the region and posts updated information on their reported results from drilling. In most cases he provides links that can be followed to verify the information. There is a lot of activity and interest in the region currently and, so, much to report. I certainly appreciate the information and the follow-up explanations and, from comments posted by others from time to time, so do other followers of this board.
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here here!
bah, why can't two words be enough for a post these days, lol
I'm thankful for the tireless research AM puts in to this stock and play.
here here!
bah, why can't two words be enough for a post these days, lol
I'm thankful for the tireless research AM puts in to this stock and play.
yeh no doubt, some of his info. on his posts have definately helped me deciding in investing in ADI in particlular, but also other companies as well. Now according to Agent M it's just a waiting game for ADI, and I'll be waiting
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most of the data i post is purely regional, eee asked about things and i answered, and a few texas investors are also asking things every now and again.. like choppy.. if it upsets people its happening no one has complained to me , i have had no warnings from the mods for discussing regional wells and the eagleford play here at all..
some people ask questions. i answer if i can.
also every quarter the major players in the eagleford will report their progress, swift, anadarko, murphy, apache, st mary, petrohawk etc etc.. so a lot of data comes out then, as i openly state, there are others posting data on other threads like saf,, hell it takes a few seconds for me to repost that,, he also posts things i find.. if you know how to use the internet then you configure it to send info to you that you want to know about, i dont spend all day researching, if i feel like spending 10 minutes every so often trolling into the web on all the shares i like then i do so,, what fascinates me is that by doing so, you get an onslaught of attacks for having done so, they just appear and dont like talking about the share, the asf site was designed to discuss shares and i simply contribute,, theres a crowd of posters that spend their time attacking me personally,, and despite it being against the protocols of the asf site, the mods dont do anything about it,, just a bunch of clowns out there that are flaming and trying to bait me so as keep the thread off topic..
if the likes of mfunksta are upset about the research posts then so be it, you can put a poster on ignore and i think you can put a thread on ignore also.. why let it bother you if someone posts on a thread?
adi is in hibernation, we all know that, they announced that zero activity is their objective in 2009,, and investors have to wait for the TCEI operator pull a rabbit out of their hat and get a massive deal with only a few operators in the usa could manage to take it on... i post whats happening on trend and closer to home.. but adi is not changing direction in a hurry right now,, its dead in the water and badly in need of a deal to be finalised,, sp is really at cash value and ground hog days continue..
all that any investor can hope for (and it applies for EKA and AUT) is that tcei does get this huge farmout deal done and dusted, then i guess the aussie jvp wakes up and things being to happen.. otherwise anyone can exit for the cash price thats on offer atm..
if its ok with everyone i would be happy to just discuss the eagleford and adi.. cheers
some people ask questions. i answer if i can.
also every quarter the major players in the eagleford will report their progress, swift, anadarko, murphy, apache, st mary, petrohawk etc etc.. so a lot of data comes out then, as i openly state, there are others posting data on other threads like saf,, hell it takes a few seconds for me to repost that,, he also posts things i find.. if you know how to use the internet then you configure it to send info to you that you want to know about, i dont spend all day researching, if i feel like spending 10 minutes every so often trolling into the web on all the shares i like then i do so,, what fascinates me is that by doing so, you get an onslaught of attacks for having done so, they just appear and dont like talking about the share, the asf site was designed to discuss shares and i simply contribute,, theres a crowd of posters that spend their time attacking me personally,, and despite it being against the protocols of the asf site, the mods dont do anything about it,, just a bunch of clowns out there that are flaming and trying to bait me so as keep the thread off topic..
if the likes of mfunksta are upset about the research posts then so be it, you can put a poster on ignore and i think you can put a thread on ignore also.. why let it bother you if someone posts on a thread?
adi is in hibernation, we all know that, they announced that zero activity is their objective in 2009,, and investors have to wait for the TCEI operator pull a rabbit out of their hat and get a massive deal with only a few operators in the usa could manage to take it on... i post whats happening on trend and closer to home.. but adi is not changing direction in a hurry right now,, its dead in the water and badly in need of a deal to be finalised,, sp is really at cash value and ground hog days continue..
all that any investor can hope for (and it applies for EKA and AUT) is that tcei does get this huge farmout deal done and dusted, then i guess the aussie jvp wakes up and things being to happen.. otherwise anyone can exit for the cash price thats on offer atm..
if its ok with everyone i would be happy to just discuss the eagleford and adi.. cheers
I just registered and this is my first post. I have been reading this thread for about a week and have learned a lot about the eagle ford shale. My interest is because I am a landowner in Karnes county and the property is close (about a mile) to the two EOG wells currently drilling off of county road 261).
Hi AGENTM,
I have been a holder of ADI since it was spun out by Arc Energy. I have even posted a few times on this thread. I say good on you for your informative posts I have certainly learnt a tremendous amount from them. I am prepared to sit and wait for ADI to take off. As for others you don't have to read the posts its your choice. I'm sure AGENT M isn't going to worry. As for me good on you AGENT M
I have been a holder of ADI since it was spun out by Arc Energy. I have even posted a few times on this thread. I say good on you for your informative posts I have certainly learnt a tremendous amount from them. I am prepared to sit and wait for ADI to take off. As for others you don't have to read the posts its your choice. I'm sure AGENT M isn't going to worry. As for me good on you AGENT M
AgentM - you write "TCEI operator pull a rabbit out of their hat and get a massive deal with only a few operators in the usa could manage to take it on."
How come you're so sure this is a massive deal, and equate it to pulling a rabbit out of a hat? From my conversations with management, around $10m would be needed to frac our existing wells and theoretically allow the JVP to achieve significant production. Of course the management cannot elaborate specifically on any part of the farmin, and therefore the size of the deal, but I'd be interested to know why you consider this to be a 'massive' deal.
Additionally, it thoroughly confuses me with the amount of investment and attention that currently exists in the Eagleford why a deal hasn't been snapped up at this stage, and I'm sure other investors are feeling the same. Surely if all that's been written about our acreages and the surrounding areas is true, our JVP is a number 1 draft pick for a large cap to pluck out and spend a tiny fraction of their investment budget to get us into production. My only explanation is the recent economic disaster has left some very cautious, wounded investors and nobody wants to back a small capped play. It doesn't help though when you see everybody else in the area raising and spending hundreds of millions around you. I for one am baffled that we don't have a deal yet.
How come you're so sure this is a massive deal, and equate it to pulling a rabbit out of a hat? From my conversations with management, around $10m would be needed to frac our existing wells and theoretically allow the JVP to achieve significant production. Of course the management cannot elaborate specifically on any part of the farmin, and therefore the size of the deal, but I'd be interested to know why you consider this to be a 'massive' deal.
Additionally, it thoroughly confuses me with the amount of investment and attention that currently exists in the Eagleford why a deal hasn't been snapped up at this stage, and I'm sure other investors are feeling the same. Surely if all that's been written about our acreages and the surrounding areas is true, our JVP is a number 1 draft pick for a large cap to pluck out and spend a tiny fraction of their investment budget to get us into production. My only explanation is the recent economic disaster has left some very cautious, wounded investors and nobody wants to back a small capped play. It doesn't help though when you see everybody else in the area raising and spending hundreds of millions around you. I for one am baffled that we don't have a deal yet.
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Dear Agentm
I am not sure what others will comment on this. But personally I learnt a lot from your posting and found they were very educative for many like me.
Please do not make changes in your style of posting. There are many useless postings made here like any forum but generally quality of ASF postings are very good and above average. It is because people like you and few others understand the technical stuff and contribute for the larger audience.
Regarding some one's question if you are a Director of ADI or not ! I am amused as it was a complimentary for you if you are not a director of ADI. If you are then it is a great bonus of your unbiased reporting. There are many name sake company directors who may have the millions to put stake on certain company but keep the knowledge or lack of it, themselves. So why do you worry mate ?
Please continue the good work and in a democratic world do not change your postings.
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AgentM - you write "TCEI operator pull a rabbit out of their hat and get a massive deal with only a few operators in the usa could manage to take it on."
How come you're so sure this is a massive deal, and equate it to pulling a rabbit out of a hat? From my conversations with management, around $10m would be needed to frac our existing wells and theoretically allow the JVP to achieve significant production. Of course the management cannot elaborate specifically on any part of the farmin, and therefore the size of the deal, but I'd be interested to know why you consider this to be a 'massive' deal.
Additionally, it thoroughly confuses me with the amount of investment and attention that currently exists in the Eagleford why a deal hasn't been snapped up at this stage, and I'm sure other investors are feeling the same. Surely if all that's been written about our acreages and the surrounding areas is true, our JVP is a number 1 draft pick for a large cap to pluck out and spend a tiny fraction of their investment budget to get us into production. My only explanation is the recent economic disaster has left some very cautious, wounded investors and nobody wants to back a small capped play. It doesn't help though when you see everybody else in the area raising and spending hundreds of millions around you. I for one am baffled that we don't have a deal yet.
gdaf
i ask you, how come you dont think its a massive deal?
what equations are you using on the deal..??? imho its easy a $100 mill deal, the only operators with that sort of capital this current month are down to a few, petrohawk being one.
you kinda contradict you own belief and say this in your own post
"It doesn't help though when you see everybody else in the area raising and spending hundreds of millions around you"
i agree with that, i see everyone spending 100's of millions, petrohawk just raised over $620 million for their expansions into the eagleford
you speculate that a deal should have been snapped up by now... i think any deal of this size doenst get snapped up, if your about to spend 100's of millions and be the operator of a project like this one, imho you do massive due diligence and you look at things very carefully.. i know what i am saying is the opposite to your view, but i cant recall any deal in the industry where you jump in with haste and dont calculate all the possible outcomes carefully..
what typically happens during the farmout process is:
1. data room
2. short list of companies
3. negotiation of key elements of the deal
4. negotiate the terms of a farmout agreement
5. sign the farmout agreement
during the processes of discussion with any number of candidates, there could be many deals happening all at various stages.
there is a need to get a move on, and get the deal sorted and the forward plans in place, this deal is not one where you are looking for a partner to do an a few exploration wells of a new field, this farmout is about making sure the partner you involve has the cash in the bank and is fully capable of funding and finishing the entire field development of this project.
the exploration phase is over, its all about getting the development of the entire field sorted and up and running.
TCEI knows the eagleford and chalks is condensate rich and so does everyone in the oil industry, thats why there are as many wells drilling into the eagleford and chalks. each month a new operator is starting their show in karnes county, dan hughes, eog, and conocophillips have drilled this year, and we know murphy is about to start also. The TCEI sugarkane jvp has enough there to make the region extremely palatable to many large operators.. we have the best acreages in the eagleford and we have the chalks above also active and flowing hydrocarbons
everyone knows this eagleford is a new play, its very attractive to the oil industry, and because adi acreages in karnes hardly have any gas in the return and its mainly condensate, this oil field is one that will attract a lot of interest.
imho if you take the view that no interest was there in this farm out, the jvp would have closed the data room by now, and looked at raising options such as capital and continuing on for a while longer with the 3 laterals. but the announced plan was to get a deal signed this quarter, so not much time left. if nothing was on the table there would be no point in continuing in leaving the data room open and trying to flag interest, no deal of this size can be negotiated and closed in a space of 3 weeks..
imho my speculation is that there would be more than likely deals in progress that may eventuate in a singing off and it would be only down to a handful of contenders..
gdaf you say this
"Surely if all that's been written about our acreages and the surrounding areas is true, our JVP is a number 1 draft pick for a large cap to pluck out and spend a tiny fraction of their investment budget to get us into production."
imho its not about attracting a large cap just to allow them to spend a few dollars on getting the wells on production, thats not what TCEi nor what the jvp is in this play for, imho they are in it to see the total acreages developed..
any group of high risk investment houses could do a quick cash injection short term and boot these wells up and cash in on the profit, but your missing the point of what the farmout is about..
Adelphi will now join some of the other joint venture partners in the Sugarloaf AMI to contribute equity to this joint farmout effort which will result in sufficient equity being available to attract a significant E&P company or investor. It is envisaged that the incoming party will earn equity by carrying the farmout parties including Adelphi through a drilling and well stimulation work program in a fixed time-frame. Details of the terms of any farmout will be
advised at the time they are concluded.
Pending finalisation of the farmout arrangements, it is expected that field operations within the Sugarloaf AMI will be limited.
From a strategic perspective, a successful farmout will result in Adelphi retaining meaningful equity in a valuable resource project and be carried through a significant work program with little or no funding by Adelphi. This preservation of capital for Adelphi during the current difficult financial environment is an appropriate strategy at this stage of the development of
the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford plays in the Sugarloaf area. These promising resources must be developed using state of the art horizontal drilling technology and fracture stimulation which have proven to be highly capital intensive during this current early stage of field appraisal and development.
A successful farmout and subsequent aggressive work program will generate significant momentum for the project, as well as allow the leasehold acreage position to be managed proactively.
imho the objective is to make sure the farmout partner is funded, is capable and has the desire to be part of what TCEI and the jvp objectives are, and it goes far beyond just gettign a funded partner to complete a few wildcat wells.. its about the whole acreages and the completion of a farmout that is looking for a full field development of the acreages
all imho and dyor
look agent - you're probably right in that they're seeking a large deal to fully fund the field development. I just wanted to know the detail on what made you think it was going to be a larger rather than smaller deal, and you've answered that.
I would assume this limits the potential suitor to a handful of co's. However, questions need to be asked:
- If nobody signs by the end of the quarter, does the JV have the capital to attempt flows from our existing laterals? Last time I checked, Adelphi was the only partner in a good position to fund forward development, and we don't even have that cash in the bank yet. There's very little chance of going back to the market to raise funds.
- What would stop a buyer just waiting on the above to occur to further de-risk their investment? Why commit to spending now when you can wait until flow results are on the table?
I feel as strongly about the prospects of our acreages as anybody, I just want to discuss all the possibilities. I don't have a firm view that a smaller deal on just the existing wells would be done, I just put it up there for consideration. There's every possibility a deal will be done before the end of the quarter, but if not, what then?
I would assume this limits the potential suitor to a handful of co's. However, questions need to be asked:
- If nobody signs by the end of the quarter, does the JV have the capital to attempt flows from our existing laterals? Last time I checked, Adelphi was the only partner in a good position to fund forward development, and we don't even have that cash in the bank yet. There's very little chance of going back to the market to raise funds.
- What would stop a buyer just waiting on the above to occur to further de-risk their investment? Why commit to spending now when you can wait until flow results are on the table?
I feel as strongly about the prospects of our acreages as anybody, I just want to discuss all the possibilities. I don't have a firm view that a smaller deal on just the existing wells would be done, I just put it up there for consideration. There's every possibility a deal will be done before the end of the quarter, but if not, what then?
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good questions..
if no deal?
adi goes ahead with the yemen capital and we know regionally these wells turn a profit.. each completion that these operators do regionally into the eagleford teaches them what is working and what didnt work.. and you cant hide from your competitors what you did on a frac.
adi is ok in financial terms. and adi would just soldier on in the sugarkane
with a deal...
adi has a self funded project in the sugarloaf acreages and then can look at plenty of new projects.. will become an even more exciting company..
if a debt laden small cap like azz can trade from .4 to .40 then back to its .25 today on the strength of a background gas show (no flares), a failure in the edwards test and absolutely no production on its acreages.. then i imagine a debt free small cap like adi may manage an equally stellar trip into orbit should it move forward either way into the eagleford..
adi has the advantage of having a geologist running the show and that accounts for a lot, the company is running very lean, and not allocating options, not paying exorbitant fees to the directors and keeping itself in a very low profile and saying little while in the background trying to achieve the goals of getting the yemen cash and a farm out in place.. with those two things done adi will be firing on all pistons and surging ahead, without a farm out adi will still be able to open up the wells and make a profit
all imho and dyor
if no deal?
adi goes ahead with the yemen capital and we know regionally these wells turn a profit.. each completion that these operators do regionally into the eagleford teaches them what is working and what didnt work.. and you cant hide from your competitors what you did on a frac.
adi is ok in financial terms. and adi would just soldier on in the sugarkane
with a deal...
adi has a self funded project in the sugarloaf acreages and then can look at plenty of new projects.. will become an even more exciting company..
if a debt laden small cap like azz can trade from .4 to .40 then back to its .25 today on the strength of a background gas show (no flares), a failure in the edwards test and absolutely no production on its acreages.. then i imagine a debt free small cap like adi may manage an equally stellar trip into orbit should it move forward either way into the eagleford..
adi has the advantage of having a geologist running the show and that accounts for a lot, the company is running very lean, and not allocating options, not paying exorbitant fees to the directors and keeping itself in a very low profile and saying little while in the background trying to achieve the goals of getting the yemen cash and a farm out in place.. with those two things done adi will be firing on all pistons and surging ahead, without a farm out adi will still be able to open up the wells and make a profit
all imho and dyor
Agentm,
As a significant holder of both adi and azz, I detect a little jealousy on your behalf towards azz.
It dosent matter if you have the best of something,you still have to market it.
Adi and azz are different plays.The only similarities are that they are both involved in the eagle ford.
Blind freddie can see that once the yemen cash is received and a farmout is announced that adi will be significantly rerated.
Unfortunately no news equals no moves.
I would love to see adi rocket to 30c in a few months.
Agentms comprehensive coverage of the eagle ford shale is predominately the reason for my decent stakes in both these stocks.
With natural gas prices looking to improve into 2010 and oil holding or trending up as well,the eagleford will see a lot more action into next year.
Hang in there and all the best.
As a significant holder of both adi and azz, I detect a little jealousy on your behalf towards azz.
It dosent matter if you have the best of something,you still have to market it.
Adi and azz are different plays.The only similarities are that they are both involved in the eagle ford.
Blind freddie can see that once the yemen cash is received and a farmout is announced that adi will be significantly rerated.
Unfortunately no news equals no moves.
I would love to see adi rocket to 30c in a few months.
Agentms comprehensive coverage of the eagle ford shale is predominately the reason for my decent stakes in both these stocks.
With natural gas prices looking to improve into 2010 and oil holding or trending up as well,the eagleford will see a lot more action into next year.
Hang in there and all the best.
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lol
firstly gerkin.. please dont make assumptions about me personally, i am tired of the onslaught and free licence here on this thread towards me. i know i have made no remarks about you personally and i am a bit shocked your joining the ranks of the others.. i know plenty of people who invested in azz and exited at the highs, fully understanding the company would be raising capital, and i have no animosity to them, i am happy for any investor in any share to make a great return, after all thats one of the objective imho..
personally i dont want to be defending myself to you, but as you are making personal remarks about how i feel toward azz then so be it, your forcing my hand and reluctantly i have to rebuke this nonsense..
"if a debt laden small cap like azz can trade from .4 to .40 then back to its .25 today on the strength of a background gas show (no flares), a failure in the edwards test and absolutely no production on its acreages.. then i imagine a debt free small cap like adi may manage an equally stellar trip into orbit should it move forward either way into the eagleford.."
that was a straightforward statement, an observation of azz, totally correct in every respect, one that that contains no criticism of any nature, nor what your claiming to be jealousy, i am staggered really.. wtf is going on in peoples minds? gerkin its purely comment, an observation.. and obviously its not inappropriate to speculate and draw an analogy that adi would achieve some sp momentum like azz achieved
i will refrain from making any personal comments about you gerkin, but you seriously need to calm down a bit and keep it less personal..
i apologise to the adi investors here and will digress o/t here for a moment
azz has a market cap of some $53 mill has a debt with convertible notes (AZZG) of 9,342,965 shares -last buy back price was $1.82. so adding the two together if you take out the debt then AZZ is valued atm at about $73 mill by those purchasing the share. not bad on the back of the vertical well results which i say shows the edwards to be noncommercial and there being a gas show only in the eagleford, no flares at all. We know from regional reports and the reports from our wells that our experience in the eagleford and chalks is different. pioneer reports this :As we were drilling the wells in the Edwards play, we regularly had to flare gas as we drill to the Austin Chalk and the Eagle Ford formations.
a cashless jvp partner, eka, is trading with a market cap of $4.6
aut has cash (some 6 - 8 mill) and has a market cap of $23 mill
ADI has cash of coming (some 6 mill) and a market cap of $9 mill
these are all observations, and all correct..
all imho and dyor..
gerkin, as much as i would love to discuss o/t the issue you mention of marketing.. please dont get me started on what i actually think about azz and gdn and their style of reporting
or what you call marketing... i will refrain atm from comments here and on the azz threads about that for the time being! adi will never join that style of reporting even in the worst economic crisis.. they do show some professionalism in that regardagain all imho and dyor.. and any further banter on azz can be done via pm as far as i am concerned..
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I imagine that achieving completion on a sale of assets in this current environment is going to be a significant feat - at least it's not being sold off to a struggling company... and surely only a matter of legality.
If there's no deal - I guess we'll see another raising to make use of some of the potential in the shale.
AgentM:
Any ideas as to how long ADI can sit in the background for? By this I mean how long till the cash runs out (albeit slowly by good management)? My reason for asking is I wonder if these matters might drag out until the US recovers (maybe years).
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hey hatchy
i am starting to think that anyone looking at this deal right now would be crazy to walk from it.
if you go to the court house right now in karnes county, it is swarming with landmen, i am told they have never seen anything like it, compared to a few years ago when it got busy there they thought that was huge, but right now it is insane
TCEI hs leased these acres at about $300 an acre.. now we see some staggering action in the county
the latest lease offering is 3 X 3 X 1.. $1100 all up.. you get $500 for 3, then $500 again for 3 and $100 on the last..
and i hear no one is signing..
adi are sitting on a very impressive and very attractive lease position..
imho the best acreages in the county, the ones we have, are needing a huge forward plan to get it all happening..
so if the deal does not go off imho anyone walking must be confident they can do better, but i cant see how..
will TCEI and jefferies get it done, well i think they have something pretty amazing to offer, 2 active zones and condensate rich rock below..
as you say hatchy if no deal is struck adi fully intends to go forward..
re how long they have,, adi is pretty relaxed atm, they have plenty of cash from yemen so the company cant fall over, and has a good outlook in terms of how to spend that capital in the future, and unlike the other 2 partners, should no deal transpire, adi is not facing a commitment to 2 wells as AUT are, nor cashless as EKA are, so they have managed to achieve one of the two objectives for 2009. get cash and in the most severe economic downturn to achieve that is not an easy task..
what they have still is one further block in yemen to sell imho
and of course a few weeks now to get the farmout deal over the line, which is frustrating as they have absolutely no influence on the outcome nor the success of the deal, its entirely in TCEI and jefferies hands
thats how i see the situation atm..
