ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

bit of green there in pasture, nice picture.

nice 50,000 unit dump late in the day, 15k exit!

conoco is still drilling the chalks again in live oak with a new well after baker so i am happy to see they are putting in step out wells.. the baker region is very attractive to them.. no updates on baker 2.. interesting!

kowalik is about to go horizontal, and its evident the chalks again are showing background readings in the vertical, its what i expected to hear..

looking forward to the next weeks ahead now..

 

[speculator101]

Hello loyal holders.
Just thought I would post the latest.
I must admit, I am a little disappointed, in how large the shortfall is, of course in the current economic conditions (local and world) people have zipped up their wallets!

“RIGHTS ISSUE - NOTIFICATION OF SHORTFALL
Adelphi Energy Limited (Company) confirms that the shortfall from the rights issue of shares announced by the Company on 15 July 2008, was 7,969,353 shares. This represents a take-up of approximately 55.1%, with total proceeds of some $3.13 million.
Pursuant to the Offer Document lodged with ASX on 15 July 2008, Adelphi retains the right to place the balance of the shortfall at $0.32 per share to eligible shareholders and exempt investors under section 708 of the Corporations Act.
The Company expects that, following allotment of the rights issue shares, holding
statements will be dispatched on or before 18 August 2008.”

So I guess all I’m after, is some opinions on whether this shortfall will have any effect of ADI’s future plans etc? Also, does this give ARC the option of taking up more?
And please no screams of this is the end etc, as ADi clearly has a future in oil and gas, if not this year, then the next…

IMHO. Cheers.

 

[hashertu]

For Agentm.
Apologies for disturbing you here, but ADVFN is a kindergarten at the moment.
Kennedy 1H.
1. Why only 19ft of perforations given how long the horizontal section is?
2. Where do you think all the frac fluid has gone?
3. Am I right to think that there are limitations on how much flaring is permitted in Texas? Therefore, to put the well on a long term test a means has to be provided to safely dispose of the gas. Hence the connection of Kennedy to gas infrastructure.

 

[Agentm]

as far as i am concerned the shortfall is as i had expected, the top 20 would have been big contributors.. smaller speculators would not need to get the increases as its available on a day to day basis..

i have the understanding that there is sufficient interest in the shortfall from various parties.. its of no concern to me at this stage, its not underwritten and if the rights issue is fully subscribed then the right sort of folk are on the register.. ie: fully supporting the comapny not in by default! (check other capital raisings for comparisons)..

4 wells in texas, one in timor sea, 2 in temen, in the coming months... exciting days ahead..


hashertu.. i agree with your sentiment..

it was light frac initially in kennedy, followed by extra perferations.. the frac fluid that doesnt immediately return just stays in teh formatin,, its not unusual for all the frac fluids not to return on certain fromations..


re the flaring, there are limitations on how long,, 14 days i believe.. but its more a case of putting a serparator on the gas and not giving it to the pipeline owners for free.. if you donrt seperate the condensate, their systems clean their gas later and get it for free!! i prefer to see it in our hands..

 

[Hatchy]

Here is another picture, taken from our property, that shows the rig and the land around. The rig is in an overgrown wooded area across FM 2102 from our property.

Ah, fantastic - it's great to know where it actually is.

Does your property get used for cattle or deer?

I wonder if there's oil/gas somewhere beneath those grassy knolls?

Thanks again.

 

[Agentm]

just some things to think about regionally..

i will post a map of the wells close by from the baker wells to the kowalik.. the new well conocophillips is about to drill, marlene olsen well..

down south from the two baker wells there is a well drilled by mobil in early 1989.. that well is called the Mobil Ford, i will post the scouting report well logs.. i have highlighted the region that Mobil noted during the drill, the well was an edwards well, it tested the edwards then was shut in.. back then the thought of drilling or testing the austin chalks this far south was not ever contemplated, the very attractive edwards was on the menu..

they missed something, didnt think to test it or facc it.. but when burlington saw it in kunde 1, testing the edwards yet again.. they knew with the well logs from mobil and later from the other well logs of 11 wells in the region, this same chalks play appears.. no one tested it as everyone was after the edwards then.. burlington really hit on something then, conoco has been eager for it and i can clearly see where they are buying leases in the region,

i will list the logs of the mobil well..

lastly i will list recent lease activity by TCEI and meridian just in the past few months.. you would note in the recent report the acreages got larger? estseon reported it recently "I also note that the AMI has increased from 22,200 reported by EKA on 30th April to a bit over 23,100 reported today."

the regional lease activity by tcei in karnes and live oak is also worth a look so i will demonstrate their lease activity there also.. in the karnes county map i have included the meridian leases recently aquired (black dots). btww these dots can represent 5 or 10 or more leases on the title there.. .

with conoco filing a new permit and our jvp doing 4 in a row in karnes county, it sure hasnt shown any signs of stopping imho.. happily holding for results..

 

[Agentm]

the chalks in east texas, although thinner (only 30 feet) have still been producing some excellent results, its comforting to know the sugarkane is80 feet just in the zone 1 proven zone...

they have pipeline constraints there and have had to restrict flow rates.



Meridian Reports Test Results of BSM A-507 No. 1 Well in East Texas Austin Chalk Play

HOUSTON, Aug. 12, 2008 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) --

The Meridian Resource Corporation (NYSE:TMR) today announced initial production test results on its Blackstone Minerals A-507 No. 1 ("BSM") well, located in Polk County, Texas in the Company's East Texas Austin Chalk Play. The well was recently tested over a several day period at gross daily flow rates as high as 20 million cubic feet of natural gas per day ("Mmcf/d") and 6,200 barrels of oil per day ("Bopd"). Flowing tubing pressure was measured at approximately 1,300 pounds per square inch ("psi") through an open choke. The well was drilled vertically to approximately 13,000 feet then added two horizontal laterals. The first lateral extends approximately 5,400 feet in length with the second extending approximately 6,200 feet for a total wellbore exposure in the Austin Chalk of 11,600 feet.
The dual lateral well was placed on production shortly after the start of the test, and is still in a "clean-up" of drilling fluids phase with intermittent fluctuations normally experienced during the first several day phases of production for wells similarly drilled and produced in the area. The well is currently producing between 11 and 17 Mmcf/d into sales relative to pipeline pressure constraints, in addition to approximately 4,200 Bopd. The Company expects that the well will display similar producing characteristics to other Austin Chalk wells in the area, with the typical hyperbolic decline curve from current production levels during the coming months. However it can be noted that the initial test rate for this well is one of the best in this area. This well is located approximately 5 miles southeast of Leggett, Texas. Meridian owns approximately 38% working interest in this well (26% net).
A second well in this area, the Davis A-388 No. 1, recently reached total depth on the second horizontal lateral section at a depth of approximately 19,000 feet MD. Currently a liner is being set in the second lateral in order to complete the well, and is scheduled to be tested in the coming weeks. The Company has approximately 45% working interest in this well (31% net) which is located approximately two miles to the northwest of the BSM A-507 No. 1 well.
The Company's Triton rig was moved off the BSM A-507 well and is being deployed to drill the Sutton A-574 No. 1 well. This dual horizontal lateral well is located approximately two miles due north of the BSM A-507 No. 1 well.

 

[nioka]

Still a possibility for trading between ADI and AUT. I've increased my interest in Sugarloaf again this week and had some petty cash left over at the end. No big trades but a little here and there when the opportunity arises. The best way to get a little pork fat from the ground hog. It saves a person getting bored with the snails pace development. Surely there are others in on the act by now.

 

[Agentm]

your extremely clever at this cross trade process. i absolutely hope you make a fortune from it myself..

I have been looking closer at baker 2 in live oak, and the more i research whats going on in the well, the more the well intrigues me..

it makes sense that EME is not reporting on it as i think a lot of what is happening there would not be allowed out in the open because it would be allowing too much information to the competitors in the region.

I think very little information will be released from this point by conocophillips on the live oak well, and in no way could the long time periods between the reports be interpreted as being negative, imho the Baker 2 well will be a long completion..

Kowalik is in the process of kicking off and going horizontal..

7 wells in the next 10 months.. ADI has a busy time ahead..

 

[Hatchy]

your extremely clever at this cross trade process.

What exactly is cross trades? I've often thought it would be a good idea to chase whoever has the next well, but I don't think that's what you mean?

 

[Agentm]

its not a cross trade as like a broker to broker, nioka trades between AUT and ADI and makes great gains on the timing between the two, he has been documenting it for a long time.. nioka does this with other shares also,, imho he should set up a separate thread and explain how its done.. its very clever imho

 

[nioka]

What exactly is cross trades? I've often thought it would be a good idea to chase whoever has the next well, but I don't think that's what you mean?

ADI and AUT in my eyes are around equal value. If I can sell 10,000 of one and buy 10,500 of the other (greater quantities if possible. min 10,000) and end up with some change after brokerage then I trade.
I do the same with some other stocks for which I set relative values. TAS and TASO. TEY and TEYO as examples.
You have to establish your own relative values. DYOR.

 

[Hatchy]

Very interesting... I will get stuck into some research on that this weekend. Can you give me a pointer as to how you determine one share to have equal value - is it future prospects or current assets?

 

[Broadside]

Very interesting... I will get stuck into some research on that this weekend. Can you give me a pointer as to how you determine one share to have equal value - is it future prospects or current assets?

they have exposure to the same prospects (differing % participation) but the stocks don't always move in unison, I think this is how nioka works the trades...eg if ADI fell 15% and AUT only 5% you'd sell some AUT and buy some ADI (simplified) and vice versa etc etc

 

[estseon]

EME & ADI are comparable in terms of interest in reserves per share. Because of the time difference, I can only place limit orders with my UK broker. So trading between the two, especially taking account of the relatively thin market in ADI most of the time, is a bit of a mission. Nevertheless, I did top up with ADI instead of EME last time. ADI still represents 2x gearing on the reserves. It is twice as undervalued

 

[nioka]

they have exposure to the same prospects (differing % participation) but the stocks don't always move in unison, I think this is how nioka works the trades...eg if ADI fell 15% and AUT only 5% you'd sell some AUT and buy some ADI (simplified) and vice versa etc etc

Basically that is right.It is a little more complicated than that. ADI and AUT have the same percentage interest in the Sugarloaf but the market cap of AUT is almost twice that of ADI. If there is news coming for Sugarloaf it will impact more on ADI than AUT. If the news is good ADI will rise more than AUT in the first instance but AUT has more leasehold area than ADI so it probably will follow ADI's rise with one of it's own. Another factor to take into account is the available cash. Cash will be needed until there is an income flow to fund the expansion of drilling. All things taken into account I conclude that the have equal value to me. Therefore if one exceeds the other with regards to the SP then I trade one for the other. I often make wrong decisions so DYOR. Available volumes are not great so it is little by little. Maybe I have made it hard for myself by telling others of the idea but at least a little trading in the shares of both helps maintain liquidity.

 

[nioka]

The trades are still there. I have traded 10500 AUT for 11,500 ADI this morning. Not as neat as I would have liked the extra shares cost $34. Usually I like to have some petty cash left over, had tried to sell at 34c and buy at 30c but ended up getting 33c at open. Earlier on the indicative price was 34c. As I said it is little by little but it adds up by the end of the week. I'm also trading the difference in MCR and OZL.

 

[Hatchy]

I think a start for me is to get some free cash and then buy some AUT.

Nioka, would I be right in saying it helps to have an interest in both companies that you're cross trading? That way you can go either way instead of waiting for the swing to go your way?

Cheers

 

[nioka]

I think a start for me is to get some free cash and then buy some AUT.

Nioka, would I be right in saying it helps to have an interest in both companies that you're cross trading? That way you can go either way instead of waiting for the swing to go your way?

Cheers

The simple answer is yes but it is not necessary. If you hold ADI and they are worth less than AUT then you can't gain and will have to wait for an opening. The chance will come. I like to hold both as an insurance policy. Both have some other interests apart from the one they hold together. You can get caught out if you sell one and miss out on the buy at the right price. At times I have sold and the buy hasn't happened because of queue jumping on opening and the reverse can happen too. Wise move to sell first unless you can afford the buy without making the sale.

 

[mick z]

hi guys,

just a tit bit from the western australian this morning.

HEAD LINE.- global projects delays and export curbs cause analysts to predict a massive jump in gas prices and parity with oil.

they say it could jump as high as $us25per million british thermal units in the northern hemisphere winter.