ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

agentm,
Your research is second to none. I commend you on that. However, don't you honestly think that if this play was a certainty, those in the know would be buying as many shares as they can at these prices? Something's just not quite right here. "IF" they've got the porosity Couch mentioned in 2006, then I would say the shares are a steal at 40c.

firstly if you look at the top 20 and see if they are accumulating then you could say the ones that know are buying as many shares as they can.


i am happy to discuss porosity, as the couch figures fall short of the actual porosity in sections of the wells, but it a very green field, infact for adi its not the perfect type of play to be in, if it wasnt for its size i am certain the focus would have gone ages ago. unconventional as this play was, it was never the target.. never did burlington drill for the chalks in kunde 1.. this play was never seen, but it couldnt fail to be noticed, it has blown a few wells so far, and it showed up equally in sugarloaf and in kennedy, and baker.. hey but oddly it never showed in the sturkens back in the 70's!!

porosity and permeabilty, the ability to hold and to deliver. both important and critical questions and factors, and so far vastly underexplored, we know the pressure can lift a rig into orbit, kennedy was drilled overbalanced to the max and was drilled safe, i cant say i think the other wells have had the same experience..

the results of kunde 3 and the results of any well producing will determine all sorts of factors on the suagrkane, this type of play needs years of deep pockets as one person aptly puts it. and it has been taking years and had deep pockets on it.. but with 36 month and 60 month leases you dont have the luxury of time infinitum. so the balance has to be struck. do the R&D, then try to get the show on the road. the investor wants sp movement, not negative but positive, and when your buying leases and trying to keep a lid on things for 2 years, then its tough, but then comes the tricky part, leases run out, and you have to make a start with things.

time for the curtains to be raised on the show i hear, kunde results any day, and then kennedy to follow. i cant account for the share price as in my view its great value for the potential outcome, dont ask me to buy more as i cant.. i am not in this share for a 50 bcf outcome, i fully expect the wells will deliver far more..

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well a little movement up and down in the sp all seems like some are getting bargin basement prices atm.
K1 soon too frac should know the results by end of the month proving no curve ball delays !
Oil set too go through $100 and may stay there or on a new sustainable higher level now would be a good time too tell everyone what they have got down there !
Suprised we havent seen no change in substantial shareholder notices from ADI

 

[cicak_kupang]

m
Thanks for your queries.

The Indonesia block is likely to be qazetted Q1 this year (we then have first right of refusal).

The Thai application appears to have been awarded to another company but we have yet to receive official notification that this is the case. We are continuing to apply for other prospective blocks in this country however.

The Kennedy testing will commence soon after one of the Sugarkane horizontal wells has been tested. We don’t have a firm timetable as yet.

Regards

Chris Hodge


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From:
Sent: Thu 3/01/2008 9:11 AM
To: Lauren Doust
Subject: INDONESIA AND THAI UPDATE

Good Morning ADI,

Are able to tell me how the Indonesian Study and Thai bidding is going? Seems like its been a while without no updated news..

The Kennedy testing in on shore Texas is likely to start soon?



Thanks for your time, best wishes for 2008.



M









Chris Hodge

Managing Director



Adelphi Energy Limited

Ground Floor

88 Colin Street

West Perth WA 6005



Tel: 61-8 9480 1300

Fax: 61-8 9263 4688

Mobile: 61 (0)411 176 162



Email: chris@adelphienergy.com.au

Web Page: www.adelphienergy.com.au


So, maybe late Jan, Feb even for testing Kenedy i'd say going by this....Still holding, still happy to be part of the wait.......

 

[Agentm]

The Kennedy testing will commence soon after one of the Sugarkane horizontal wells has been tested. We don’t have a firm timetable as yet.

i shouldnt think we should put the directors emails on forums too much, it may not be good practice as they usually dont expect them on the forums.. but none the less, the news is accurate as i see it..

just curious about the freudian slip, how many horizontals has conoco got, i know baker is one but its still drilling, we know kunde 3 is one and completed, and we know the rig sat in kunde 2 for a long long time, and is completed.... maybe kunde 2 is more than just a vertical, there are two permits for it.. all guess work.. but interesting remark in any case.. he is saying "one of sugarkane horizontal wells".. anyway who knows what they did there in those months and months with the nabors well on kunde 2.. it only takes a days for a vertical sidetrack, but the well was there for months in the end..

have a great weekend, it seems the "closed well" policy also excludes all news from all wells, so lets see when they greenlight it all.

 

[fflintoff]

It is obvious from the EME releases that the reference to:-
"The Kennedy testing will commence soon after one of the Sugarkane horizontal wells has been tested. " is Kunde #3.

 

[Lucky_Country]

I see HSBC and Citigroup have both sold their holding in ADI thats where the selling pressure has come from lately.
Just wonder why they would sell down ANZ has increased its stake with a few other movers in there.
Umm interesting times.

 

[Agentm]

I see HSBC and Citigroup have both sold their holding in ADI thats where the selling pressure has come from lately.
Just wonder why they would sell down ANZ has increased its stake with a few other movers in there.
Umm interesting times.

initially i also thought they were actual investment houses coming in but they are nominee accounts, so the accounts are on behalf of individuals or companies..

there has been no change on the website since 11 december, and all the previous movements were noted then, there was a move out of some 5 million shares that were taken up by the various top 20 to top 50 shareholders..

best i can understand is that kunde 3 has a little way to go and they start the last of the frac stage. i would say its not to far away. we are all awaiting the results of that. as soon as the frac is completed then kennedy will be attended to. i think by now they would have enough data from sugarlaof to understand how to frac the zone 3 with the horizontals, and they have stated no further work at sugarloaf until kennedy is completed.

next few weeks are news weeks according to tom at EME..

lets see if he is right..

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well a minimum ofover 12 months on since the finish of drilling at sugarloaf and we are still none the wiser.
January had better give us some definative news with both K1 and SL1 other wise I can see alot of phone calls too the company from alot of investors.
Obviously these things are very complex deals and need too be handled in the most efficient way possible but I do feel some of us that have been with the company for quite some time deserve an announcement that will let us know what too do with our investment.
I feel for the people who bought at around the $1 mark.

 

[prawn_86]

I'm no chartist, but the ADI chart certainly looks very very unhealthy to me.

If I was looking to buy this, even on fundamentals, I would wait till the chart at least leveled out, especially in current market conditions.

Double (or triple) top has formed and now in a vicious downtrend. Resistance previously to this 9 month chart was at $1.

Hows that for a bit of sweet charting

 

[nioka]

next few weeks are news weeks according to tom at EME..

lets see if he is right..

This month is make or break for me. During the last week I have traded AUT for ADI so that I am now 50:50 with the two. Luckily I sold the AUT before the last announcement and was able to get 6 ADI for every 5 AUT. With the low turnover it wasn't easy. If the news isn't good by the end of the month I will sell half and if there is no good news in Feb then I'll be out. Definitely no more buying for me.

 

[gdaf]

tick tick tick tick -

what's going on with zone3? pressure testing the well for 7 days turned out to be 27?

 

[resourceboom]

I'm no chartist, but the ADI chart certainly looks very very unhealthy to me.

If I was looking to buy this, even on fundamentals, I would wait till the chart at least leveled out, especially in current market conditions.

Hey Ray,
Whilst it may be safer to not buy in the short term, you also could miss out on some potentially massive gains in the next few days/weeks/months when the real news finally comes out.

Charting may be of assistance in small periods of no news, but as everyone says small news driven speccy oil companies are not the best use for this technique!!

ie don't want to miss out on any gains like this :
(I know I know..... but this or much better is what we hold for)

 

[prawn_86]

RB,

I can find plenty of stocks that have gone sideways or dropped a lot over the same time period as that chart.

My point is, in current market and stock trending conditions you are almost assured to lose value on paper in the short to medium term if no announcements come.

If you wanted wait for an announcement, then why not just set up an alert so you can check every announcement they release and jump onboard early if you think it is worthwhile.

At least this way your $ will be working elsewhere and not in a downward trend, and you can still have the upside of a big announcement. Even if it gaps up a bit, it is probably the same as if you buy now and the value drifts lower in the current trend.

EG (purely fictional):
buy now @ 37c hold for a month price at 30c.
watch for announcement and buy then. Price gaps from 30 - 36c (20% gap) and all else is equal plus your cash has been employed better over a month.
It wouldnt work this 'nicely' though

 

[nioka]

RB,

I can find plenty of stocks that have gone sideways or dropped a lot over the same time period as that chart.

My point is, in current market and stock trending conditions you are almost assured to lose value on paper in the short to medium term if no announcements come.

If you wanted wait for an announcement, then why not just set up an alert so you can check every announcement they release and jump onboard early if you think it is worthwhile.

I don't think this is a stock that you can do this with.When it goes, if it goes, it will be a massive jump. I have done what you suggest with LYC where I bought at 37c, sold at $1.343 but will buy in again when the start up date for production gets closer. I did the same with AGM. Both those stocks faded but will come good as the production date gets closer.Luckily I got back into AGM before the Zinifex offer, I am not back into LYC yet. ADI and AUT are a different kettle of fish. If you are "out" when the news comes you miss out.( for better or for worse.)

 

[prawn_86]

ADI and AUT are a different kettle of fish. If you are "out" when the news comes you miss out.( for better or for worse.)

So you are saying that if it gaps up it will be a huge % and that will be it? No further rises?

I find that hard to believe : especially if the news is as good as people are hoping.

 

[Agentm]

hey nioka

so your moving around again!!

in talking to adi recently i was under the impression they were equally feeling the frustration of the delays.

As i have mentioned in the past weeks, i am more concerned as each week passes about the prime leases in our acreages that are not on 60 month terms. there are a bunch of very very prospective leases which need to be seriously looked at by adi, and in my discussions with adi they are accutely aware as i am of them.

i feel the goundhog day senario is continuing for a while yet.. but it cant be too long,,

i am waiting for kennedy myself, then if its as good as i believe it will be, then i may be forced in staying in for a while longer..

good luck to the holders..

all imho and dyor

 

[ScottMG]

Where do you find out who is buying / selling ? and who are the top 20 holders in the company ? Anyone know

 

[nioka]

So you are saying that if it gaps up it will be a huge % and that will be it? No further rises?

I find that hard to believe : especially if the news is as good as people are hoping.

What I mean is that, in my opinion, there will be a spike on good news. The better the news the bigger the spike. Then it will trade sideways, without much gain, maybe even a fall, until the next news, and depending on that news we will see a trend one way or the other. I would expect a huge jump if the elephants start to sing and there may be little warning. That is how I am approaching my holding, I'm often wrong.

 

[resourceboom]

EG (purely fictional):
buy now @ 37c hold for a month price at 30c.
watch for announcement and buy then. Price gaps from 30 - 36c (20% gap) and all else is equal plus your cash has been employed better over a month.
It wouldnt work this 'nicely' though

... Thanks for that, but yes, I hope a decent announcement will see it gap larger then 20%
I'd be very interested in your thoughts over the coming weeks as things unfold.

ie If you can give some ongoing thoughts for a hypothetical as with your example but with updates, I would be interested to see how it plays out.

 

[prawn_86]

... Thanks for that, but yes, I hope a decent announcement will see it gap larger then 20%
I'd be very interested in your thoughts over the coming weeks as things unfold.

ie If you can give some ongoing thoughts for a hypothetical as with your example but with updates, I would be interested to see how it plays out.

ok well lets use my previous post as a hypothetical and see how things go.

I will assume i bought today at 37c and i will let you know when i will 'buy' in on the announcement. Hopefully i dont miss it