ADI - Adelphi Energy

[greenfs]

Whilst the ann appears positive, the trade volume rise without a substantial sp increase is very bemusing when the recent daily trade volumes are taken into account.

As the price has hardly changed in spite of today's volume increase, it seems to me that someone may be exercising some sort of (put) option based upon a pre- existing agreement in writing between two parties.

 

[Agentm]

did i post 1250 km??

man thats long.. 1.25 km is better for kennedy 1H...

i have a lot of interest in the zone 3 frac on the strength of the zone having the best shows. but all three zones had great shows, and the well was trying to flow back gas during the wireline as they were just about maxed out on the mud weight!! all three zones were good, not just one.

all looks good to me, nothing negative in the news..

Next week we have a definitive answer.

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well I think that what happened today marks the turning point in the ADI story.
It shows there is alot of intrest in ADI and should also show that we are at the pivtol point where we know its full steam ahead.

 

[Agentm]

one sparrow doesnt make a summer..

but it can mean the summer is coming!! so "encouraging" is appropriate.

the chalks are for conocophillips and TCEI a 200,000 acre play, for us we have only 10% of it, and prime acres by the looks, and the jvp's leases were as previously announced, hotly contested. and by major oil companies, not a bunch of wildcatting small caps!!

its very evident the play has got massive upside, and like many i have accumulated and held for a long time and will continue to do so for the duration. I see the 4 mill trades as just a transition of shares, nothing much to be of concern about.. its obvious the size of the trades indicated its a major holder cashing in some shares. and its a new chapter for the next holder. all good news. if it was 4.5 mill shares being dumped on a panic sell then i would be looking everywhere for a spare dollar and buying whatever comes on the market, as that would have tanked the sp to magic prices!!

if you like the story theres still time to gather some more and get on board.

all good IMHO

looking forward we have frac results and updates on this 5000 foot horizontal.. and cause to be "encouraged!!"

 

[barney]

.. its obvious the size of the trades indicated its a major holder cashing in some shares. and its a new chapter for the next holder. all good news.

I agree Agent, It was obviously a large shareholder who was probably "tired of waiting", and wants the cash for other ventures

It was actually a pretty clever job they did of offloading their shares ............ Cross trading (possibly the same million or so shares ) to create the appearance of "movement" and then placing the "real" shares on the market to sell ......

The thing that I was impressed with, is that the sp, which would normally have tanked under that type of pressure, actually stood up and increased a little ............... There are a lot of savvy buyers out there ............. All you need is a little patience with this one ................ It won't happen overnight, but an extra few months in the overall scheme of things will reward the patient imo .............. Long term hold for me ............. Good luck all.

 

[Agentm]

hey barney, nice to see you still hangin in there.. when we all head to koh somui will you bring our axe and play a tune at sunset??

I have a little thought on todays movement of shares. i think the buyer was a holder of adi shares, as there was definate concern on the cause and effect of the trades.

lets say if that churn happened 2 days ago, the sp would have tanked on speculation "insiders knew something, and are selling out"

i think the arrival of the news release signalled the buy, and it couldnt have been interpreted as a bad signal.. the seller and buyer were lined up a long time before the trades..

the news release was relatively neutral to not signal any buying frenzy also..

thats how i see it.. all IMHO

 

[henry vanderhave]

holding,holding,holding.It looks promising.This has truckloads of potential.Look at ELK WGP on not so much.Could be heading for the space station if big news comes.Patience to let it unfold.holding,holding,holding.PS. the market is like an unpredictable lunatic et moment.Just my ramblings.

 

[barney]

hey barney, nice to see you still hangin in there.. when we all head to koh somui will you bring our axe and play a tune at sunset??

I have a little thought on todays movement of shares. i think the buyer was a holder of adi shares, as there was definate concern on the cause and effect of the trades.

lets say if that churn happened 2 days ago, the sp would have tanked on speculation "insiders knew something, and are selling out"

i think the arrival of the news release signalled the buy, and it couldnt have been interpreted as a bad signal.. the seller and buyer were lined up a long time before the trades..

the news release was relatively neutral to not signal any buying frenzy also..

thats how i see it.. all IMHO

I agree 100% Agent. The majority of buy/sell orders were obviously pre arranged, and as you say, they waited for the neutral news report so no one would get alarmed, which does indicate "associates" doing business .......... Simply moving some stock around for financial reasons ............ Lets hope those reasons were to save tax when the sp heads north in the future

PS If the sp gets where I need it to, I'll even consider donating my "Les Paul" to charity !!!! ............. and thats saying something cause I've owned it for 30 years. Cheers.

PPS I only said "consider"

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well lets hope it was for tax reasons was getting pretty confusing there yesterday.
I was hoping someone was taking a new majority shareholder position thinking they were acquiring shares from ARQ only a guess tho

 

[Agentm]

hey barney.. dont give the axe away..

Lucky_Country, no way would arq sell down is holdings in ADI. its just increased it!!

all quiet again and back to groundhog day mode..

On the weekend we get the refrac which is interesting me a lot, and obviously the well is drilling away in the chalks and eventually word will filter out how well thats going..

looks like the holders are holding and the buyers are uncertain whether the coast is clear to buy..

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well annual report out and I like what I read.
Sounds like they are getting set for a big drilling campaign at SL pending results but they strike me as being confident.
Words like company maker short term get me excited !
NT doesnt sound dead and buried more like operator issues (whos paying for the stuff up)
Yemen too start early 2008 and ACP32 late 2008 should be an exciting 18 months for ADI.
Still looking ahead too Indonesia and Thailand all sound exciting prospects enjoy the ride !

 

[Agentm]

i did my own research on NT as i didnt like the delays, what i found was that one of the US jvp's was in court with the operator, they were up for fraud. it doesnt detract from the success of the play, it just means the jvp has to tread carefully. i chose not to discuss the things i founbd as ADI and AZZ had chosen not to. I figured it was under control and nothing has changed in the well,, all that hareally happened is a breakdown in partnerships. so the well is shut in umtil things are sorted.

the report is excellent, its clear that they see the play as a new discovery, as do conocophillips.

the frac is on any day now, so next week we will have clear understandings on the flow, and by then kennedy 1h will be a good way towards finishing the horizontal section, it takes only 10 days to complete it.

the other projects in asia are exciting.. as is yemen

good luck if your in it

 

[fflintoff]

Another Pioneer horizontal well planned for Edwards ( up to 17000ft ) at the mega Pawnee field.

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...Y&name=MANSKER+RANCH+G.U.&univDocNo=484827818

 

[resourceboom]

agentm, I'm sure you've seen this, its from another devoted researchee JackoHelp in the uk....

http://rrcsearch.neubus.com/esd-rrc/index.php?_module_=esd&_action_=viewimage&id=412179&oversized=0

You've long mentioned K1 as not producing from the Kane. This link seems to back that up!

But this is a very intesting and confusing read !!

 

[Agentm]

resource, i was under the impression kunde 1 was only producing above 11520 feet, in those documents that restriction was removed. i believe the well is currently only producing from that zone, its because they have named the zone and its listed on the RRC database monthly what the production figures are. i am given the impression the kunde 1 well is not allthat it seems, and its entirely capable of a lot more production, i think the 500 barrels of oil per day from couch oil was not based on fiction. i feel the kunde 1 well may indeed be allowed to produce in perhaps a far better fashion in the near future.

in terms of next week, i am very unsettled by the kunde 2 well, the well is completed yet no shows were reported by eme in any of the three zones,

lets hope the frac and the kennedy 1h well comes through with some news, as the "no news" from kunde 2 is not making a good picture there. i hope is just a case of the EME directors holding back price sensitive information deliberately, because if it isnt, and the well is dry, then things will take a dramatic turn i feel, its very unsettling in that respect..

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well after reading the annual report I feel more confident than ever.
Very unusual for ADI management too be so bullish with the phrases "company maker"
Not long too go now with results and then all should be reveiled

 

[mpls]

agentm,

Do you know for a fact which rig was drilling kunde#2 directional?
Do you know for a fact which rig is now drilling the baker well?
Do you know for a fact when rigs moved?

The fact I know is

"As at 2pm (Texas time) on 4 October, the operator had made good drilling
progress and was drilling ahead at 7,555 feet."

Kennedy was drilling at some 450ft per day. On that rate Kunde#2 would reach TD(12800ft) 11.5 days later at 2am (Texas time) on 16th Oct. Which doesn't match with your "rig is moved off ages ago"

How do you know "kunde 2 is completed to the current permit"?

Even if you are right about completion, not sure you can say "no news must point to the the fact that all three austin chalks zones were dry". Did we get show reports from Kunde#3? How delayed was the K3 spud announcement? How delayed was the K3 flaring announcement.

It seems to me that without the Oz jvp involved in Block A (and the consequent tighter rules on announcing) then we have to wait a little longer for the news to come out.

 

[Agentm]

mpls.

i seem to remember the kunde 3 announcing shows all the way through the drill. but if you say they did not then so be it. i remeber plenty of people making money on knowing about the shows a week beforehand..
hows the volumes been going lately? is all ok? nothing suspect at all?


why is there no update on the status of the completed kunde 2 well.

i ask you mpls, are you certain the well is not completed and that the nabors 775 rig is not drilling the baker 1 well?

i think the fact there is no news will be negative, not positive on the jvp's as the three zones prospectiveness can be questioned if a rig moves off and no horizontal is drilled and no explanation is given..

i think they got shows in all three zones, i think the will test the zone 1 and then later return the nabors 775 rig to make a horizontal out of kunde 2, and i think they will go into zone 3 with that well.


others will think there is a problem with the well.. why not report whats going on operationally, if at least not to disclose the detials or results, but to at least give the shareholders some clarity on whats being done.

 

[Father Ted]

agentm

I personally don't think that the Kunde #2 well has completed to permit depth yet. I think it's not far off, but may have been delayed by the paper work.

It was only on 16th Oct, that the permit for Kunde#2 was revised to remove the restriction not to produce concurrently from the same reservoir as the Kunde #3 well.

This has probably caused a (nother) (small) delay in drilling to target depth, which must be close, but is probably not there yet.

This project, from the very start, has been maticulously planned and timing is everything in keeping the ball in play. delays will occur, but it all seems to knit together pretty well, considering the number of operations that are now involved.

I can't see why the UK bb's get so up tight about all this.

father ted

 

[Agentm]

well father, with your devine intervention we may have to pray a little and hope all is well at kunde 2!

i cant see the fuss, i would have though an operational update is easy to do, the eme directors are updated daily, and the nabors operators have systems which allow you to log in on the net and see exactly where you are with the well..

imho no news from eme can allow people to get in under the real price the share would be if that news was released.. i dont follow volumes, but in the last week adi had some crazy share trades,, did eme have anything there?