ADI - Adelphi Energy

[chance fate]

agent ....not sure if you are refering to me but I aint no geo expert/nor claim it... trying to piece things together for myself (and sharing that for some counter argument if it's out there/anyone interested) from the few facts that we have into something that makes some engineering sense and can reduce the uncertainty as to what could be going on (can claim to be a mech eng with a some few years O&G experience if that helps)... anyhow... taking another angle..it could also be that permeability is really very good and the reason being the high permeability allowed the carrier fluid to leak away quickly and left the proppant behind...?? but then back to what I said earlier.. why do a frac job if the permeability is already very good?... that's why i reckon it doesn't look good....is that reasonable?... the share price is obviously reacting to what is on the table now and hopefully as a backstop will recover whatever the SL outcome on the back of K1H... but reckon we're in for as much volatility as there are reasons for what's going on until we hear something definitive from the Jv's

 

[chance fate]

hope this helps


- a sudden down hole drop in pressure from a cement bond failure, or a screen failure or a massive fracture being created which allows the proppant to 'fall' rather than be pumped or carried thus causing screen out.



q44

thanks agent...That might be another sequence of events that could explain it... i.e. the cement job failed, the fluid leaked off (hence the decompression) elsewhere through the cement into another zone leaving proppant stuck in zone 3 causing the screenout... maybe need another remedial cement job...?

 

[Lucky_Country]

Although its dissappointing for a further delay it still seemed a very positive announcement.
6% Fraced gas flows are noted Kenedy 1# spudded just a ring of positive feel about there language.
Lets hope problems encountered during fraccing dont take as long too resolve as the NT well

 

[nioka]

Interesting posts today but has it really been a case of the return of the Groundhog curse? Or is it that fraccing is a problem in many cases. VPE had failures in this department and so has LKO???? I'm losing patience.

 

[Agentm]

Interesting posts today but has it really been a case of the return of the Groundhog curse? Or is it that fraccing is a problem in many cases. VPE had failures in this department and so has LKO???? I'm losing patience.

they appear to be going on with the flow test. so its a minor delay, no doubt if they get flow they would reconsider a second frac.

i think too many are reading too much into it IMHO, but its part of the highs and lows og O&G exploration, we had a seemless well up till now, and first incident over a minor matter, and the panic sets in.

as i have said before, nothing in my research tells me anything else except TCEI is totally locked on to developing the chalks with conocphillips.. i will remain in this share as long as this continues.. which from all appearances is extending further with Kunde 2 directional and with Kennedy 1H, which spudded 3 days ago.

 

[Agentm]

i wont be brief..

the next few weeks are critical in timing, and its day 3 on kennedy 1H, and the next 3 days they lay the casing, then 12 days drill to 11658 feet. that means TCEI has a few weeks to decide which zone to go after with which well.. SL1 flow testing has to go ahead as the wells are going in all over the shop now.

there are many things i can see happening in the near term.

1/ I believe the jvp's will release their annual report simaltaneously.

2/ I believe the directional well being drilled by conocophillps will have four things happen to it,
(a) it will use the Nabors 775 rig to drill the well
(b) the Sl1 test will ultimately decide which of the lower two zoned they will drill next
(c) the kunde 2 well will be amended to become a horizontal and drilla 4000 foot to the SW corner of the lease as far as it can with impeaching the neighbouring leases.
(d) EME will be a jvp in that horizontal when its decided in the next two weeks which zone they will drill into.

3/ i believe at the same time the SL1 well will also drill into the same zone as the Kunde 2 horizontal. (based on the test of the sugarkane being good, therefor making K1H a sugarkane well, and the new wells SL1 and K2 will go for the new zones as amended permits that will wildcat the zone as horizontals.)

4/ i am absolutely certain the only thing stopping the announcements is the delay in waiting for the test result of sl1 on that all important zone 3.. any good flow IMHO will greenlight the next phase..

5/ i am convinced the claims the project is multi tcf are absolutely genuine.. and all my research indicates and reinforces this.


6/ 27 NEW LEASES (with at least 5 on our immediate acreages) went in over night in karnes (bad luck XTO, i can see TCEI has gazumped you)...

also another 166 acre lease in Bee county.. very nice and next to the 800 odd acres late last month... and usually the later scouting data will show more leases today..

7/ i cannot see anything other than relentless ongoing planning, leases, permits and testing thats indicitive of a mighty big announcement!!!!

sell out now if you think its good as it gets..

dont wait too long if your hanging around on the sidelines.. things are starting to happen!!


all IMHO and DYOR

 

[fflintoff]

Rev Couch recognised:-

“We have received several emails indicating our Director of Exploration, Charles Couch, was recognized in the September issue of Oil & Gas Investor as one of the leading influential people in the Oil & Gas Industry”

( CBO )

http://www.centralbasinoil.com/newsarticle.asp?ID=27

 

[Agentm]

and the Rev Couch is to be praised to high heaven for his insightful sermons!!

Bell potter 20 sept 07

The other main new disclosure was that the total Sugarkane field had a reserve potential in the Upper Austen chalk of more than 3 trillion cubic feet gas and 500 million barrels condensate. [That does not include the 2 lower zones that are being be tested at the moment


but our man charles had a revelation in sept 06.......

Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.

The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.


praise the rev couch for that revelation!!

 

[fflintoff]

KUNDE Gas Well #: 1
Prod Month Range: Sept 2006 - Aug 2007

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/PR/p...1N8TTqwpV7yB7p2pSfnTLntB!-468789238!-55693300



Production Reports

PR Queries Home New Lease ID's Built Query


Query Results Production by Lease



Current Operator: BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP (109333) District: 02
Field: SUGARKANE (CRETACEOUS) RRC Identifier: 225297
Lease: KUNDE Gas Well #: 1
Prod Month Range: Sept 2006 - Aug 2007 Lease Type: Gas


Showing: 13 - 12 of 12 results

Oil/Condensate (Whole Barrels) Gas/Casinghead Gas - MCF
Prod Month Commingle
Permit No. On Hand
Beginning of Month Production Disposition On Hand
End of Month Formation
Production Disposition
Volume Code Volume Code
09/2006 0 3,615 3,301 01 314 11,552 180 01
11,372 02
10/2006 314 3,702 3,478 01 538 13,460 310 01
13,150 02
11/2006 538 1,223 1,106 01 655 4,450 125 01
4,325 02
12/2006 655 3,592 3,669 01 578 12,358 310 01
12,048 02
01/2007 578 2,720 2,811 01 487 10,870 305 01
10,565 02
02/2007 487 2,814 2,929 01 372 10,540 840 01
9,700 02
03/2007 372 2,387 2,287 01 472 9,708 930 01
8,778 02
04/2007 472 2,328 2,116 01 684 9,150 900 01
8,250 02
05/2007 684 2,335 2,344 01 675 9,603 930 01
8,673 02
06/2007 675 2,213 2,402 01 486 9,775 900 01
8,875 02
07/2007 486 2,063 1,995 01 554 9,126 930 01
8,196 02
08/2007 NO REPORT ON FILE

[ < Previous ] | Page: 1 of 1


Lease Comments
04/05/2007 e-mailed Dorsey for schedule start date







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[Agentm]

The Sugarkane Field
The “Sugarkane” field is a trap of around 50 kilometres by 20 kilometres. Unlike the well-known Austin Chalk fields, which produce from fractures in tight chalk, the Sugarkane field has porous chalk, apparently as a result of early oil entrapment. The Sugarkane vertical discovery well is highlighted in the attachment and this well, owned by Connoco-Phillips and Texas Crude, a private US company, has been producing gas and condensate for the past year. The gas has an exceptionally large condensate content (more than 250 barrels per million cubic feet of gas) so the oil (condensate) production is worth more than the gas.

 

[Agentm]

The total Sugarkane field has been outlined by 11 holes, including the discovery which has been producing for almost a year. All 11 wells intersected the Austin chalk and all had shows and log interpreted gas zones. Sugarkane appears to be a significant new discovery but requires confirmatory drilling and testing.
The biggest challenge at Sugarkane is likely to be in working out how to best develop the discovery to maximise returns. It is believed that horizontal wells with fracture stimulation of the chalk is the best way to go and the Joint venture has started the Kennedy horizontal development well next.


are you guys keeping up with the 11 wells???


kunde 3 is all fine:

The horizontal well drilled by Texas Gulf 6 kilometres to the west looks to have been most successful.


We are drilling the Kennedy 1H well not on guesswork,, its based on 11 wells and a successful horizontal]I hope the penny drops in the near term,... the sp is an absolute steal

 

[Evangeline]

My God! Everything Couch said is now confirmed. This is so exciting!

Agentm - do you have any idea as to the prospectivity of AUT's extra acreage? It is still in the Sugarkane I gather.

It might be worthwhile to get some AUT as well. I did not think they were such a good buy since they have about double the shares out there. What do people think?

Hold on tight folks - looks to be quite a ride!!!

 

[resourceboom]

Hi Evangeline, I have held ADI and EKAO for a fair while now.
After AUTs latest presentation I bought some AUT too, so now hold all 3.

Whilst AUT has double the shares they have more then double the net acreage, so I think it should do very well too, assuming they are quick to develop their extra interests.

 

[Evangeline]

Their partner in these acreages is TCEI - who have apparently been researching the areas in question for 12 yrs according to AUTs website - so I can't imagine TCEI would just let the whole thing slide. Agentm has just been so spot on in all of this.

I would guess that AUT would be looking to use their cashflow from the Sugarloaf joint venture to develop their interests in Longhorn etc. The 11 wells appear to be adjacent to these areas also - so they should get a good idea from that.

ADI are poised to make the most money in the nearer terms as Sugarloaf is now up and beginning to run - but for the longer term a punt in AUT may keep the money coming if all goes to plan.

I was surprised actually that the upside mentioned in the BP report for ADI was not more - but they are not taking into account the other two zones I gather?

Anyway none of it has happened yet - I have to remind myself to keep from dreaming while I am awake!

 

[resourceboom]

Yeah, was still a little surprised in the valuation differences...

I think the risks in holding the JVP's now is:
1) the field not proving up as well as expected (low-med I reckon)
2) the vertical flow rates cause st weakness (higher risk but short term)

I'm waiting for the K3 results, apparently from the UK BB someone spoke to EME, and they are waiting on getting in a test team, but the shows in the well were very strong.

mmmm yeah, almost continuous gas shows, and 60 ft flares, thats more like it. Hope we get the same with Kennedy-1.... mmm

 

[Agentm]

its a broker report..

its by a broker i respect,, but be warned...

1/ i am told he is a sustantail holder in AUT and the jvp..

2/ AUT used this firm to capital raise.. they are hardly going to paint a negative picture are they..


I personally have never invested on the sole word of a broker,, never used them and never will.. DYOR and use their reports to your advantage.. not theirs!!

AUT have no cash to develop a field like this,, no cash and no chance,, if you think their shares are thined out now,, wait until they have to capital raise to develop this field,,

the prime acreages, which in answer to your question eva, is the acreages the jvp we are in has, 20,000 acres, and is all about developing the field and as a group, all jvp's stand a great chance of making a killing here if they work as a team and achieve the goals they set,, but the AUT boys are way out of their league thinking they can take on that sort of acreages.. IMHO their ipanema and longhorn zones can not be developed with the capital they have, they have already announced their plans on how long they intend to stay in the project.. and they wont be able to achieve the goal of developing all the acreages in that time frame.. only CP can.. no one else!!! just do the sums on what sort of cash they need to have on ahnd to develop this play,, IMHO they will sell out as they planned..

the lease buying thats been going on and the forward planning of wells will be amazing,, in a very short time the jvp's have to announce something, as i see leases that need a well on them!! things are going very close to the wire here..

i like adi as the directors very own cash is in it,, they have not capital raised like AUT have and eka have.. ADI are cash rich,, have a well planned agenda,, have let things go to achieve success at SL,, and they wont be giving the SL project away as they have ARQ and the major holders, including me,, behind them all the way!!

IMHO the BP report is good in what it reveals,, but it doesnt make me want to buy AUT. just put a close watch on them... the AUT boys set up EKA just to get more exposure to sugarloaf,, and get more options and freebies.. i dont have a problem with anyone making a buck ,, but when its not your own hard earned dollars,, then you tend to give it away feely too,, the directors at adi have not been loading themselves up on freebies.. and i have seen the AUT and EKA shareraising and IMHO, they were poorly timed and managed..

I research follow the people in the top 20 at ADI,, they are clever people.. and i know the management at ADI, so thats why i enjoy being in this share..

ADI has a future ahead of it,, it intends to go somewhere..

Indonesia, yemen, africa, gulf coast, thailand, offshore WA..

all those projects are equally high risk high reward..

but ultimately, you have to understand,, even brokers can be biased..

all IMHO and i am sure everyone will DYOR



now back to the 11 wells.. anyone want to discuss them?

 

[Agentm]

1well Pogue
2well sugarloaf1
3well Kunde 1
4well Kunde 2
5well Kunde 3
6well Meeks 1
7well
8well
9well
10well
11well

ok lets see who knows what around here..

fill in the missing wells and lets see if your research matches up..

(will post it on HC and UK bb also and see who fills it in first) my cash is on the uk boys!!

 

[fflintoff]

"..they have already announced their plans on how long they intend to stay in the project.. and they wont be able to achieve the goal of developing all the acreages in that time frame.. only CP can.. no one else!!!"

"IMHO they will sell out as they planned.."

Agentm,
AUT might exit in under 24 months as per their latest corporate presentation:-

Where Will We Be in 24 Months?
Aspiration -High Growth Large Mid-Cap
All projects have hydrocarbons present
“Sugarkane”regional play includes Sugarloaf, Longhorn and Ipanema and has the potential for significant reserves onshore
North Belridge has the potential for >6million barrels of oil net to AUT onshore California
Gone?
Major upside projects are of a size to interest large companies
Sale of Assets?
Distribution of capital
Continue with balance of assets
New projects

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070905/pdf/314d0fj2q22q03.pdf

page 20

 

[tarzanhey]

and the Rev Couch is to be praised to high heaven for his insightful sermons!!

Bell potter 20 sept 07

The other main new disclosure was that the total Sugarkane field had a reserve potential in the Upper Austen chalk of more than 3 trillion cubic feet gas and 500 million barrels condensate. [That does not include the 2 lower zones that are being be tested at the moment


but our man charles had a revelation in sept 06.......

Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.

The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.


praise the rev couch for that revelation!!

One day on a visit to Texas to check on my investment I will have to buy him a beer thats for sure!!
THANKS CHARLIE

 

[Agentm]

Flint..

i agree on AUT exiting,, and the way i see it is if your not serious about seeing it through, then how serious are you about getting value for your shareholders..

Tarz ... couch won an industry award relating to O&G exploring.. nice to see there is some further credibilty extending to him..

great start to the week.. suddenly there is a thirst for adi stock..